Thanks for posting Tomm. Although TA puts it in 'death cross' territory. Arguably a good opportunity to buy on weakness, though you need to be patient, or alternately wait for a 'golden cross'.
I like this one and am slowly building up a holding.
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Thanks for posting Tomm. Although TA puts it in 'death cross' territory. Arguably a good opportunity to buy on weakness, though you need to be patient, or alternately wait for a 'golden cross'.
I like this one and am slowly building up a holding.
Thanks for posting Tomm :)
I am getting excited until things are put in place for VGL. They have addressed the issued last year by saying that mean there are more revenue due to full aquisition of Movio and the signing to use their software with Japanese Aeon next year.
Vista Cinema’s strong first half was highlighted by the successful implementation and go-live of 90 sites with Marcus Theatres in the USA. Revenue expansion continues with the recent launch of new product innovations Serve, Horizon and very successful expansion of hardware and other third-party offerings.
Movio’s first half achievements included the implementation of Aeon, Movio’s first Japanese cinema exhibitor. Regional growth of 43% in LATAM and 41% in EMEA has increased Movio Cinema’s global footprint to 55 countries. Movio Media revenue was strong due to an increase in Research revenue and renewed contracts with Amazon, Warner Bros. and Viacom.
Additional Group Companies (AGC) performance reflected modest revenue increases. Powster continues revenue growth from its showtimes platform, though creative projects targeted for H12019 have now been pushed to later in the year. Maccs’ business had a strong first half. New deals signed in July 2019, plus reporting expansion via collaboration with Vista Cinema in Europe, provides an encouraging outlook for Maccs. Flicks has obtained unique user growth in both Australia and New Zealand, with “Your Cinema” websites now being used by 97 cinemas across 13 countries.
Early Stage Investments’ (ESI) revenue was impacted by a one-off prior year transaction for Cinema Intelligence and revenue in movieXchange dropping due to the decline of MoviePass, a key ticketing partner for movieXchange tickets in 2018.
Associate company Numero achieved strong revenue growth over the 2018 corresponding period. Numero is now providing reporting services in multiple countries, global coverage has reached 22 territories.
Vista China H12019 highlight was the addition of 89 new sites. Vista Group is in advanced negotiations to acquire a controlling stake in Vista China.
JV company Stardust is not consolidated. It continues to focus on product enhancements to expand its reach to avid moviegoers.
Kimbal Riley
Group Chief Executive
Vista Group International Ltd
Fisher fund has been busy pushing the sp down and bought heaps..up to 12% now..the last time they bought in SUM where the SP was down to $5.20 ish...now SUM has recovered well. Wonder Fisher knew something coming up.....or taking the opportunity to top up hard out. I still believe VGL will do go long term....
Wow..62% of china Vista.....no wonder Fisher fund kept buying!
When I was new to trading this was one of my first stocks I bought into. At that time I didn't understand basic fundamental or technical analysis.
I bought at the peak while it was being hype driven. Lost about $2000 on this stock once that poor report came out.
This is pretty low now and I'm tempted to analyse the company properly and see if its worth investing in.. maybe make back that 2000$ but I do adhere to a rule to stay away from companies I lose on out of greed to earn the money back (which I feel biases my analysis the second time around)
Vista Group to Acquire Controlling Stake in Vista ChinaVista Group International Limited (‘Vista’) is pleased to announce that it has today entered into anagreement to acquire a further 14.5% of Vista Entertainment Solutions (Shanghai) Limited (‘VistaChina’) from its fellow shareholder Beijing Weying Technology Co. Ltd (‘WePiao’) to give it acontrolling 62% stake in the entity
Great news ...I reckon...
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/346441
China is a tremendous prospect for Vista Group. 12 of the world’s top 20 cinema exhibitor chains operate in that market, the 2019 box office in China has already exceeded that of 2018 and cinemas are being built at such a rate that by 2021 there is expected to be almost twice as many cinema screens in China as there are in the USA.”
For sure, it doesn't owe you anything.
China is a good cinema region as most of Asia is with growth still present.
Did the Chinese subsidiary ever pay back that rather large loan on the books a couple of years ago? . I never did follow that up. So I'm not up to the minute with Vista but it strives for growth and I think this is a very positive distinguishing aspect of it as a company to invest in. And it has quite a few strings to it bow as it horizontally spreads throughout the industry. So that growth remains very achievable and yes it may have taken a bit of a knock but if the growth rates of the past can return then the higher PE's become less of a negative.
I'm still positive on this company but have a quite small holding due to its volatility. I think it remains a good portfolio candidate as a growth/risk stock.
Another fundie has increased their holding...so the SP has been pushed down so the fundies can top up..won't be long till the SP goes up again...
“China is a tremendous prospect for Vista Group. 12 of the world’s top 20 cinema exhibitor chains operate in that market, the 2019 box office in China has already exceeded that of 2018 and cinemas are being built at such a rate that by 2021 there is expected to be almost twice as many cinema screens in China as there are in the USA.”
Thats great i just wonder if the opposite is happening in the western world though with people streaming everything at home or on their devices.Also i went to a recent popular movie a few days back at EVENT cinemas. 23 minutes after start time they were still doing ads and pumping other movies! at an irritatingly loud volume. Why would one bother tp pay re 17$ or more for this , not me. Only 5 of us there at the time too.
Young generation...where they are dating....in Asia is a must..weekend..young one will go with girl friends and boy friends...not in NZ...young kiwis are too broke to go to movies...
Sure but are they losing mkt share in the West as it gains in Asia , two very different cycles?
Not really..only NZ.....US..UK....movie is a must....Not NZ..young kiwis spend only with Netflix n pizza..m
Why did the Chinese partner want to sell down? Could it be that they have already gained enough insight into Vista's software and business strategy? Will a new Chinese competitor mysteriously appear with a similar, more localised product and lower prices? This is a country that runs on pirated versions of Windows and Office.
Lot of unique country specific risk in doing business in China and very few foreign, let alone NZ companies come out on top. My mind drifts back to Rakon's disastrous joint venture in China. Lion Nathan, Fonterra and Comvita's joint ventures are other examples.
Of course, it is ridiculous that you need a local joint venture partner to do business in China to begin with. The same is not true for Chinese companies investing in NZ & Aus. A classic and major non-tariff trade barrier and only one of many.
It would seem that Vista has had a complex and at times fraught relationalship with it's Chinese partner(s) over the last few years.
I can not remember all the details but it would make an interesting movie plot in it's own right.
Today we went to see
Farmageddon: A Shaun the Sheep Movie
10/10 Laugh out loud funny.
U are comparing business to other businesses. What about A2m...delegate wines....they dealt with China...bother successful....ohh...what about THL...joined venture with USA....are they doing well..just because joined with USA business?
Your examples prove my point. Neither A2m or Delegate have joint ventures in China, they merely export to China. No doubt they give up some margin to Chinese distributors but this is a far less risky approach. Also you can't copy wine and milk the way you can software.
USA has a functioning legal system.
https://www.thedrinksbusiness.com/20...ng-fake-booze/
Anything can be copied ..in China.
its amazing isn't it how even when everybody has huge tv screens at home they still want to go see a movie.
Is it just the delayed release strategy that does this or do people really wanna go out and see it on the much larger screen?
Would the shrinking of the delayed release timeframe kill the movie industry. Could that happen i.e movies go straight to DVD/streaming.
I would say it is for the experience...going out dining n then entertainment. Netflix has limited box offices latest movies...n too be honest a kind of boring stuck in the house with big screen TV everyday...would be fun to hang out with mates watching latest movies
Vista Group International Limited (NZX & ASX:VGL) advises that it intends to
release its financial results for the 12 month period ended 31 December 2019
on Thursday, 27 February 2020.
Craigs latest report a bit bleak on Vista, coronavirus going to hit them hard. Think I might bail for the foreseeable future
Share price still plunging .....heading sub 3 bucks
That’s lowest price for a long time
Hard to see a quick recovery here ...but will keep watching thst chart.
Negative sentiment related to China I wonder .. movie industry prob not so great there at the moment
Hold On folk....
pretty bad alright...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/11/beij...-business.html
Seems the Sp is hanging on to it very well .
Market seems to like VGL results..... see them here.
Revenue only up 11%. SAAS revenue now 33%. However profit down 14% EBITDA down 5%.
I'm disappointed. VGL the only red ink in my portfolio, so I've de-risked and reduced my holding 50%.
That said, I'm going to continue to hold as I like what they are trying to achieve but suspect it will be FY21 before we get much good news.
VGL suspends guidance and dividends. See it here.
Positives mentioned....
- Theatre ticket sales account for less than 5% revenue
- 60% of revenue is 'reoccuring'
Why did they stop trading at this time for VGL ??? anyone knows ?
They just resume trading now.
VGL $65 Million capital raising announcement today. See it here.
Battening down the hatches to weather the storm. Prudent.
Definitely...it was up really fat within 2 days
Trading halt untill the 20th.I smell a rat!!!
Jeez, $1.05 is a long way down from recent high of $6.25
Must make it the buy of the century ...unless of course there actually was $5 of bull**** hype built into the $6,25
Spot on Master winner....I cut loss long time ago...Loss heap but could be worst. Lucky SUM and MET helped the loss....
Whos optimistic things will go back to "normal" cinema user wise? This could be another nail in the coffin for them. They've combatted declining demand and increased comp(netflix etc) with multipexe's and advertising.Sheesh i had to go through 23 mins of ads a while back before the movie started! . I wont be back but hope to get to the small independent cinema rialto who dont have lots of ads. But ive been the only one there sometimes, or often only 3 or 4 others, sadly i think its an ailing industry here, maybe not in Asia but they are not big in China for one. Many human behaviours will change following covid i think cinema use could be one of them. Its also a gamble on when a vaccine arrives. Just my opinion.DYOR
This pump and then capital raise seems to be a really familiar trend ... same happened with KMD .
Classic. Movie industry is getting smashed right now and while they’ve got some studio related revenue a lot is reliant on normal cinema visiting behaviour which I think won’t be ultra fast to resume around the world ..
And that is why they are raising cash....... and I'm sure when the tide turns VGL will be "well positioned."
Personally, VGL is the biggest loss in my otherwise healthy portfolio. I certainly didn't see Covid-19 on the horizon when I originally invested (and was slow to react when it did appear.) However, I take a long term view and consider VGL as a counter cyclical hold/buy (particularly at below $1.00.) Dollar cost averaging the way to go for me.
As always DYOR and take responsibility for your own decisions.
I think its more risky even than it was before but still could return - it was a tad overpriced (just a tad) but had all the hallmarks of a well managed enterprise and doing a rights issue supports that view . But now its underpriced because of social distancing and movies.
I cant see how it wont take ages for movies to regain popularity and this will undermine the business plan even for the recurring revenue , maybe not straight away but it will eat it away.
Im seeing covid 19 as a bit of a social reset and this will only increase peoples desire to stay home and stream
Movies have been fighting the winds of change and those headwinds just got a lot stronger now So I'm a lot less keen than I was, despite respect for the management.
Their homepage https://vistagroup.co.nz/ will tell you they have business partners there.
See the pic below.... their geographic spread is impressive IMHO. More details on their website.
Attachment 11311
Found this to be a reasonably useful summary of some of those headwinds... https://www.matthewball.vc/all/covidmovies
yes I did
here is the quote
There's no real indication people will stop going to the movies, that it is a thing of the past, or that Netflix poses a major threat to cinema. While in the US movie ticket sales have fallen slightly over time (not including 2018), box office takings are growing strongly. Moreover, US cinema ticket sales still dwarf global Netflix subscriptions. The "death" of cinema has been prophesied four times since the onset of commercial cinema in the early-20th century. Three of these have proved toothless. Television, popularised in the 1950s, was the source of the first major panic, followed by home video in the 1980s and internet streaming in the 2000s. The fourth, the video game, has replaced movies as the dominant audio-visual medium, but involves sufficiently different practices to pose no real long-term threat to the viability of cinema.
and here is the link to the article
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/entertain...ectid=12046909 which is from mid 2018
even if it takes a couple of years for people to return to cinema en masse that will be enough for Vista. I am trying not to under-rate this possibility.
Vista share offer document mentions strong support from their lender ASB..
ASB have reduced margin lending facility for Vista from 60% to 0%
There is a hint there
Cap raise done and dusted (well for the institutions) holders to get 1 for 4 at around $1...... and so the SP climbs 19% today.
Is it window dressing, or is there some pent up demand? Whatever, nice to see some attention being focused on VGL again.
Im over mainstream theatres for movies.Who wants to watch 23 mins of ads before the movie or pay close to $20 to find someone nearby on their ph and so destroying the "ride". But its streaming that i think is the big killer for real this time.Look at the new highs of Amazon, Netflix etc. Alot of those customers will be captured hereon and i dont blame them.
ignoring your exaggerations to make your point (Barely 5 mins of ads OMHO, and I seldom pay more than $12.00,) I beg to differ.
I was a frequent movie goer pre Covid, and will return when possible even tho' I subscribe to Netflix.
Most of the cinema's in our area attracted good audiences across all age ranges (school holiday's just an example how embedded the treat of a movie is.) Watching on a small screen not an option for many.
Movie theaters are still still pretty packed. There's a big demographic spread that still go to movies. Heck I don't even like paying to see a movie but I still see them at the theaters for completely social reasons.
Agree with Left Fields point.
And disclosure not a holder
But you are speaking from past experience and i question the word packed.Whats it going to be like in the future.Many things are going to permanently change imo. Cinemas will become redundant and thats not even taking VR into consideration.
You're right and I could be wrong, it's a little bit of a weird one to forecast.
Alternative options to watch movies from home or so forth have always been present, and you can think about a doom scenario where people don't want to go out and socialise to the same extent after the current event. I disagree but it would be silly to say i'm wrong or right.
Furthermore, the market yields a strong demographic following from below 20s in particular. If people start becoming introverted on a mass scale after this event then sure no one will go.
I'm not holding but it'll be interesting to see how long it takes if VGL ever recovers.
Thanks - it's also worth highlighting that the article I referenced was very US-centric, whereas much of Vista's growth is likely to come through Asia.
I declined the raise but was told it was 6x oversubscribed by my broker this morning...
... I'm happy to have passed , but starting to wonder whether the best approach is to just take a slice of every cap raise (if I can get a look in)
Really struggling to reconcile current market performance with economic outlook
I know what you mean, seems many, every cap raise brings in euphoric punters making easy money with a sharp rise afterwards and easy arbitrage. It has to end in tears or im redundant in this game and need to spend my time elsewhere.Maybe its time to start thinking about sex, drugs, alcohol and downtempo music , they make much more sense then the share mkts atm.
Thanks for denying me my experience NOT. The last time i went to an Event multiplex cinema I timed it ,23 mins of ads and trailers; and people on their phones during it. I know a guy who so incensed his cinema going experience was being ruined leaned over and grabbed someones phone and threw it down the aisle!:t_up: Cinema is dead to me other then the small independent theatre's but i will be ecstatic if my local independent theatre survives this covid disaster and opens again.
That the problem with reckons and personal anecdotes.
Peoples views and experiences can be vastly different and ultimately as individuals or even groups or people it doesn't matter a tinkers cuss to the success or failure of the business/sector
Its like in the AIR thread people talking about how nice a flight was or wasn't on an AIR plane and ultimately it didn't matter. A black swan came along.
Yes fair comment. Maybe younger goers will go back to the movies. BTW I dont advocate taking action with people using their phones during a movie other than a verbal reminder/request that its affecting others viewing enjoyment., but i can understand people frustration.
By passing on VGL(craigs offered me plenty) i forsake a quick 44c a share gain so yeah what do i know.:( DOH
Who is taking up their entitlement?
Ditto. I bought relatively high. I dollar cost averaged down at $1.10 so I figure I will take the full entitlement.
I know it is a long term hold. Good tech but some countries will take months before they open movie theatres and consumer behaviour will change but there should still be enough upside.
Took only the full entitlement to average down but not the 40% more additional shares as my allocation for this stock has gone more than what I've budgeted for when I started buying into it. It's a big red on my portfolio right now.
How do you figure a quick 44c?, they're offering at 1.05, current buy price as I type is 1.20
Yes big red in my portfolio too and a somewhat tempting longer term buy (as surely they cannot go down further?)
The question for me is the money I would spend on their offer better spent on a different holding especially bearing in mind their 25% discount offer is not as attractive as it was since the price dropped from $1.4 to being today at $1.2?
Good companies come up with solutions!!
Vista GroupInternational is offering its cinema customers a technology package to helpthem reopen, including managing self-serve, contactless transactions andticketing to achieve social distancing, free of charge
The software forces a two-seat spacing between groups or individuals withina row as well as alternating rows to create six feet (2 metres) of socialdistancing behind and in front of customers.
Still could be sitting in the same seat as someone else a few hours earlier. All while sitting in aircon, not recommended. Cinemas and Vista will come back but they will lag most other sectors.
Better to invest in home entertainment. Netflix, Sonos, Amazon etc. Maybe even Sky?! :eek2:
Yeah good company, no debt, growing earnings (with hiccups as they go to saas model), nice future opportunities. Was very richely priced (I got caught out and bought to high) results and covid has smashed it now. Pretty good value at 1.05. I sold some at 1.23 and took up all my rights + extra to cover it. This company will have a good futures, but it will be a long hold before it's price appreciates, as with many other companies at the moment. Good lesson to be careful buying companies at high valuations without doing full research.
Cap raising deemed a success. Hopefully it's onwards and upwards from here!! (ps Agree with NZ Silver on lessons learned!!!)
"Vista Group International Limited (Vista Group) is pleased to advise that it has successfully completed the retail entitlement offer component (Retail Entitlement Offer) of its 1 for 4.37 pro-rata non-renounceable accelerated entitlement offer (Entitlement Offer). A total of NZ$65 million will be raised under the Entitlement Offer and the institutional placement announced on 16 April 2020".
Hang on, you both appear to like the company's fundamentals, not sure how more research would have prepared you for a pandemic. Plenty of profitable companies look expensive even now e.g. ATM is hardly without risk from macro issues e.g. a livestock disaster, yet plenty of buyers above $19.
What would you have done differently?
Good Question........(and you are right.) So here's my story FWIW.
I was late to discover VGL. I liked their International spread, sound management and reputation. However I think the timing of my first purchase was wrong (although the TA indicators looked awesome in Mid 2019 - see pic.) Buy the trend.... and in mid 2019 the long term trend was UP.
Attachment 11517
That said, I did well by taking only a small stake. I'm a big into buying in instalments. Small nibbles.
What I didn't foresee was a large slowing of revenue as the company went to a SAAS model. This was badly received by the market and the SP dropped 30% with a 'death cross' occurring in Sept 2019.
When faced with such a TA 'death cross' I usually sell out and wait for the trend to change. However rather than selling out at this stage, I chose to average down. In hindsight this was a wrong decision.
Then Covid 19 came and I was again blindsided as the SP dropped when "lock-downs" became common internationally. All of a sudden the once sound International Movie and Entertainment market was hit hard.
Faced with all this, I've been buying at the current SP levels and 'averaging down.' I suspect it will be 1 - 2 years before I start getting a decent return on my shares.
As I've said before, it isn't all woe. VGL is rare red ink in my portfolio (in which my av returns are still well above NZX50 averages) and I'm well placed to sit this one out. I still believe this company has great prospects. Time will tell.
Nice to see VGL's new shares trading today at a 38% premium on the recent cap raise offer price. Happy I took it up.
Be interesting to see how it plays out from Thursday.
Another step into Europe. https://www.nzx.com/announcements/353639
Slow burner this one.
Left field I did nearly the same as you..Reading your 8th May #290 post echoed my trading..Buying then accumulating into the uptrend (nibbling).
Got caught out with the sudden unexpected drop as it was so sudden I had no time to unload..
Vista reverting back to SaaS status is something you don't normally expect to happen. Normally as a company matures it moves away from Saas towards a product value/dividend yielding company..Any move back to Saas status also causes a revert back of valuation methodology which affects share price..I personally think Vista was rather naughty, they should have fore-warned with a market disclosure of their intentions to that structural change back to a Saas company status. They must have known it was a price sensitive decision..
The day of the announcement was a market bombshell which saw the sudden market revaluing Vista resulting in the share price near instant 40% fall...NZX did not react so Vista got away without even a rap on the knuckles..Unless there is a leak (rumour or insider trading) TA would not signal a warning..there was no leak and this TAer got caught in this price fall as well...Then it was Covid and I must admit I ignored that TA warning ..At the beginning, the world outside China (me too) disbelieved the severity of the virus in relation to the unprecedented draconian measures taken severely affecting the economy.....TA said sell and I didn't..Final score TA 1 Hoop 0
An opposite comparison can be seen with Pushpay with it's normal structural change away from Saas status towards maturity creating a change in the company value methodology resulting in the shareprice to triple..PPH disclosed it's strategy intentions well in advance but the market disbelieved until it become evidential...
I'm with Left field, I think Vista still has a future..
Disc: VGL (+ new shares) PPH PLX MSR = 5% stocks ...95% in Fixed term investment
Thanks Hoop.
I see you are 95% out of the market. I would be interested to learn how you intend to decide when/if to re-enter? What signals are you keeping an eye on?
At the moment I am short term bullish but I am extremely bearish longer term which is an emotion I must try to control. That's hard to do when I believe in the 4 R's Economic Recession Management scenario..Run Rescue Recession Recovery and we are only in the rescue phase.It all depends on how well the Governments and Central Banks manage the rescue phase as to how deep the recession is going to be...so far the powerful countries governments and central banks (incl NZ) are playing the same management game as per textbook..so I have faith we may avoid a very deep recession as long as everyone sticks to the plan.
The recession is not here yet, neither is the recession effects on our share markets but when the recession is here and operating for some time, the signals I use are "ducks lining up in a row" method..I have 20+ "ducks". I weigh some "ducks" more valuable or less valuable due to their correlation coefficient value..this is where being either a statistician or a Chartist or both comes in very handy..
My two favourite ducks which have a 100% accuracy rate (so far) are inverted yield curve (a recession predictor) and copper price uptrend reversion during the depths of the recession (share market bottoming out predictor)..Now all this may look easy but market manipulation with economic computer models sort of makes signals rather confusing these days. For example copper has already reverted to an uptrend so does that suggest the recession was a brief sharp covid effect and is now over or is the worst yet to come and copper will signal the next uptrend reversion...
I think somewhere on ST I have posted my ducks..I will revisit my files and repost them.
In the meantime download and read Russell Napier's Anatomy of the Bear..He has many end of bear signal predictors..
With regard to Vista....Vista has no history as it was founded (2014) during the last Bull cycle so I'm not terribly sure how badly it would perform in a Recession within an Indexed Cyclical bear cycle..As it's customers are cyclical companies and strongly effected by economic periods, I can only assume Vista could be rather exposed during recessionary periods...
Disc: Have VGL
Thanks for posting Hoop. I thoroughly respect your charting expertise and was genuinely interested to see how you are managing the current very volatile market signals. So thank you for sharing your brief strategy.
FWIW I'm currently 80% invested and in the past I have used TA to successfully dodge the worst effects of the 1987 crash. (In those days I used meta stock.) However, these days I am finding;
1.) There used to be a saying that when USA (S&P etc) sneezed, then NZ catches a cold (in 1987 it was more like pneumonia!) However IMHO NZX these days is slowly becoming more disconnected and more unique in its reactions, and as I am 100% invested in NZ I tend to watch local signals more closely.
2.) I'm currently finding the NZX50 and S&P average market TA monitoring is less relevant and the TA monitoring of individual companies is more relevant.
For example in the recent COVID downturn the TA signals being sent by ATM versus the NZX50 index were different. As a result I tend to make my decisions specific to individual companies rather than an index based decision. (VGL being my only failure in this respect.)
It will be interesting to one day compare notes on how we both fare in these tricky market conditions.
Yes the indexes seem to be less relevant in recent years...The success of the very large stocks (FAANG) have hijacked the S&P index..A similar thing happened in NZ with the dot-com bubble burst when Telecom distorted the NZSE40 index..
With this Covid effect I've found that many stocks had the same dramatic drop followed by a dramatic bounce including the NZX50 index..the bounce is interesting as the poorer performing (struggling) stocks have a poorer bounce...sadly Vista is in this category which is a worry.
Your ATM example is something unbelievable..looking at ATM's chart you would have to ask "didn't anyone tell ATM what was happening in the world"..
Yes we must compare notes someday
What happened with this stock guys?