651,000 sharers thru today s/p $4.16. Was checking the depth yest and saw re 6000 shares out on their own @ $4.20. They got snaffled so looks like a keen buyer hoovering up all shares offered. May be offering a few myself in the next few days
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651,000 sharers thru today s/p $4.16. Was checking the depth yest and saw re 6000 shares out on their own @ $4.20. They got snaffled so looks like a keen buyer hoovering up all shares offered. May be offering a few myself in the next few days
I've been wondering why all the interest. Time for a 'please explain' notice?
Worth 5.50 by my model, but the share price seems to be saying some good news is coming.
I think it has just been the shift to defensive yield stocks that has benefited Z.
I sold out recently thinking it would track sideways as I didn't pick the shift from growth to yield stocks. Still invested via IFT and I have plenty of power stocks so haven't missed the shift completely.
I think it has just been the shift to defensive yield stocks that has benefited Z.
I sold out recently thinking it would track sideways as I didn't pick the shift from growth to yield stocks. Still invested via IFT and I have plenty of power stocks so haven't missed the shift completely.
I like your model bunter:). Craigs have changed from a hold to a buy with 1 year target of $4.64(was $4.11) and net yield steadily increasing from 5.8% now to 7.6% in 2017.
Am watching CTX Z's equivalent in Aus (transforming out of refining to straight retailer)as well.
Puzzled to see ZEL's share price weakness. Oil has gone up a bit, but...
- It stands to receive a fully imputed div from NZR for FY15 worth 5c per Z share , plus approx 15cps (unrealisable) capital gain on NZR's share price rise since ZEL's last report. Might as well pass the full 5c div on to its shareholders, with IC, IYAM (special div?)
- It's getting a refund of 2014's 'floor' payment from NZR.
- Its core business must have had a good six months - add another 2-3 c to that final div.
So... last year - 20.3c FI div
2015 - say - 28c FI - for a gross yield on current SP of 4.66 of 8.34%
Been a fab run up to $5 bunter , maybe some profit taking from there.. Also caltex unlagged margins dropping.
If oil prices rise I think the market is concerned Z won't be able to achieve the extra margin's its been able to extract from its customers.
Agree Roger, JT.
Another NZR-related benefit, apart from the NZR div and NZR capital gain, is the refining margin cap.
Currently the cap is in place - actual refining margin $10, cap $9.
Presumably this $1 per barrel benefit flows to Z, BP Caltex etc.
Next year, with TMH online, if all goes well, today's $1 margin will be worth $2.16.
Higher margins are possible.
My calcs say that's worth approx 1.6c per Z share per dollar the refining margin is above the cap.
Some analysis on Z looking at the effect on Z of forecast improvement in NZR performance for 2014, 2015 and maybe beyond.
My valuation goes from $5.66 to $6.37, assuming the NZR benefit to be non-recurring.
So a moderate benefit, and not a better way to get exposure to NZR than buying NZR.
FB figures here
8/02/15 gf 8.0% ZEL SP 4.620 SOI 400 14 e
15 16 17 18 19 20 21 NPAT ul - excl NZR
119 128 139 150 162 175 189 204 NPAT ul - from NZR 0 23 34 28 22 22 22 22 Total NPAT ul 119 151 172 178 184 197 211 226 eps ul 0.297 0.378 0.431 0.444 0.460 0.492 0.526 0.564 payout % 80% 83% 84% 83% 82% 82% 82% 82% GDPS - excl NZR 0.329 0.356 0.384 0.415 0.448 0.484 0.522 0.564 GDPS - from NZR 0.000 0.080 0.118 0.097 0.077 0.077 0.076 0.076 0.433 GDPS - total 0.329 0.436 0.502 0.512 0.525 0.560 0.599 0.640 gy% 7.1% 9.4% 10.9% 11.1% 11.4% 12.1% 13.0% 13.9% Valuations Graham 14 7.28 Div flow 7.05 Div flow exc NZR 6.07 NPV of NZR benefit approx 0.3 Div flow exc NZR + NPV NZR div 6.37 RC operating EBITDAF https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/203281.pdf - p16 Z's preferred measure of profit. HC = historic cost of fuel; RC = replacement cost NPAT-ul Z forecast RCEBITDAF 15 220-240m (say 240) 240 DA* 41 I* 34 RCEBT 165 T 46.2 underlying NPAT 118.8 ul eps 0.2970 * 14H1*2 ZEL's NZR shareholding Z's NZR shares m 48 total NZR shares m 313 Z's % 15.4% ZEL's NZR dividend (all figures net) 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 NZR div cps 0 0.345 0.414 0.439 0.463 0.461 0.459 0.457 to Z $m 0 17 20 21 22 22 22 22 to Z cps 0 0.041 0.050 0.053 0.056 0.055 0.055 0.055 Z's processing fee cap benefit 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 margin est 0 10 11 10 9 8 7 6 Cap surplus 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 BBPA 42.6 42.6 45.6 45.6 45.6 45.6 45.6 45.6 Cap effect $m 0 42.6 91.2 45.6 0 0 0 0 to Z $m 0 6.54 14.00 7.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 to Z cps 0 0.016 0.035 0.018 - - - - NZR SP change 0.92 in $m 44 cps Z 0.110
Anyone got any thoughts on where Zel share price is heading? Other than dipping below the MA50 I can't see anything conclusive either way, looks like it may be near its bottom for now but maybe not.I'm looking to reenter after selling out last year ( Must be a few of us that wished we hadn't) as a divvy play, thanks in advance.
No, who would know where it's heading, except down at the moment. It's on my yield watchlist. After a stellar run, even through the early stages of the Oil price rout, it's selling off right now. Perhaps better to just keep an eye on it and wait until a confirmed uptrend sets in again. Just because it's under the 50MA isn't any indication of whether it's near a low (bottom). most confirming indicators suggest there's plenty more downside to come. Just chill and watch and wait, don't buy into down trends, imho.
BAA
What's with the 12cent price rise today (petrol-not share price)?
No worries mate, a 50MA breakdown is more usually a sell signal. There's no need to bail out the $4.5 seller, leave it to someone else.
Put these indicators on your chart; Williams %R - fast; RSI - short term; MACD - a bit slower; DMI - slightly slower again; Money Flow and Volume - show you where the $ are going and how much. These simple indicators along with the 50EMA and 200EMA will give you insights when to enter and exit. You can move early, middle or later, depending on how much confirmation you prefer. If they all confirm, buy, or sell. Don't agonise over being the first to buy a bottom, or the first to sell a top- that's gambling. Most moves run for long enough for the indicators to inform a timed entry or exit. If they don't run (a fake out), stay in, or out, depending on your position. It's just about timing, and you can't time something that you can't see or by guessing.
BAA
Couta, this is what I mean:
Money Flow - out, confirming people are exiting.
Williams %R - note it signalled early the sell off the top.
RSI - confirmed the sell down a few days later
MACD - crossed down as the RSI went through 0.
DMI - crossed down at the 50MA.
Everything says down. Wait these these start reversing, in the same order.
Attachment 7086
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/ar...ectid=11404872
I think there's a general consensus out there that the fuel companies were incredibly slow to reduce retail prices but that the extent and speed of recent increases is in very stark contrast and looks unjustified.
Looks like the Govt wern't impressed either. Thinly veiled waiving of the regulation stick ?...implications for Z's margin's going forward ?
http://www.interest.co.nz/news/74132...t-margins-earl
Quote:
Z Energy said MBIE data on fuel profit margins was no longer accurately measuring sales data or all of the costs that determine profit margins.CEO Mike Bennetts said through a statement that fuel companies were competing harder with a range of new ways to win customers, including through service, price discounting, loyalty offers and a wide range of discounts beyond the price board. These affected margins, but were not reflected in MBIE data.
“MBIE has historically monitored and reported fuel importer margins, but this reporting has not kept up with rapidly changing competitive dynamics and the methodology is now flawed," Bennetts said.
"As a result, the gap between this reported margin and Z’s actual margins has been growing and the quality of the data has become a problem that needs to be addressed," he said
is the govt levy on fuel a % of retail or fixed per litre?
Have you paid for fuel in Europe? Now that's expensive.
Isn't it hypocritical of the govt to wave a wet bus ticket at the fuel companies when the govt's outrageous levy margin is immune to changing retail prices. Oh of course they do it 'for the people' yeah right? Is there actually a government regulator, or just MBIE gathering the data?
had a read of there report into petrol pricing, I must say very entertaining
https://www.nzx.com/companies/ZEL/announcements/263348
Report wouldn't be the cause for the (close to) 4% drop in share price?
Well, well, well.... Irrespective of what NZIER says I would still bet a few bob that they dragged the chain last summer with retail price declines on the back of such a major decline in oil price. I still reckon they're thieves and Z is by far the worst in the area I live. They have massively over-played their local ownership hand IMHO.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/mone...l-price-cynics
The AA I find just as entertaining, well educated people no doubt
One wonders if this report was truly independent as it was paid for by Z...just like all those "independent" auditors reports of finance companies were paid for by the finance companies themselves.
When you're being paid a big fat fee by an energy company one can ponder if that didn't affect the outcome ?
trading halt pending major acquisition - Caltex , mobil or nz refining ?
buying Caltex I believe
Im banking on them picking up caltex nz after chevron sold its caltex ops in aus recently. caltex has re 220 gas stations here. Cant remember what it worked out per shell station.
jt - afr says Caltex for around 800m
cheers , got it. "The deal includes a $NZ 150 mill cap raise
The dual-listed Z Energy has indicated it would be interested in acquiring more service stations if they came to market, while fund managers say there is significant upside on offer from a service station mop-up.
Wow, big announcement: https://www.nzx.com/companies/ZEL/announcements/265080
Buying for $785. By comparison, ZEL has a market cap of $2B.
Other strong players in the market so I assume they will get ComCom approval.
They will no doubt consoldiate the brands over time and will get backend efficencies out of this.
Must be positive. Having said that, it has had a very strong run ever since I sold out :(
Up 45 cents at opening! All I can say is damn... wish I was a holder before today. Congrats to all of you.
$6 by the end of the day? on track for it, started up around 40c, now up 80c?
Well done to all those holding, nice gain since IPO that is for sure.
(Unfortunately I am not one of the holders)
Why has it increased so much. A 15% increase is $300m in value created from a purchase of $785 - I cant imagine Chevron left that much on the table.
Maybe Mobil / BP and Gull should be sending Mike Bennetts some champagne? Possibly the market is assuming higher profits with one less player - I'm certainly not suggesting that our petrol companies act in concert or anything....Lol....
"Those service stations set their own prices anyway, so there'll still be an element of price competition.
"The concern that we have though is that as a wholesaler, Z will actually be supplying nearly 50 per cent of the retail market."
However, while BP remained in the fuel market, Z would have a large competitor to keep them in check, Stockdale said.
Insight from the NZ Herald and also the funniest thing I've heard all day.....
Are we expecting a big dump from profit takers? Half expecting it to drop right back to $5.50
Sold re a sixth today. Anyone with any updated research on ZEL; be great to see?. Nothing at Craigs yet.
I sold at $4.95 a few weeks back. Obviously still need to fine-tune my exit strategy..........
Just bad luck.No one expected you to have inside info Grimy; no leakage if one looks at the chart the days before. One strategy is to average out over a time period , say in 4 trades; that would have helped in this case, i did that with RYM quite awhile back.. I fluked getting into NZR; the placement @ $2.32 turned up as i was about to pay $2.50 plus.Luck.
Craigs increase target price to $6.22 reduce to hold.
$6.49 if regulators approve(likely)
From what I've read ; and re still re 51% fuel vol from Bp ,Gull, Mobil etc. Craigs "high likelihood".Going by the re 18% s/p rise i think the mkt thinks it likely too.
But its certainly not a done deal for awhile yet.
Rod Oram's commentary on Z Energy's purchase of Caltex.
http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/pr...tator-rod-oram
Excellent , thanksIAK. I like the word Synergy and i think Rod oram suggested that when/if they get the go ahead for caltex the s/p will go up by the same amount again or something like that.
Yeah needs to be a done deal,risk removed, and the share price will respond. Then the cap raise. A few comments emerging suggesting it may prove harder to convince regulators and/or ZEL may have to sell off few parts of the business.S/P drifting back a bit from $6.20 to $5.95 but finished at $6 today.
MBIE higher
GRM lower than march
Fuel vols lower than march 2015 and june 2014
total Z transaction count down to 14.1 million .2014 14.6million , 3 less s/stations
Average weekly store sales down on march
Decline in fuel volumes quite marked even like for like. Take off the one off(?) 109 ml export last year and vol still down.
Lack/decline of growth pushed the s/p down. Dissapointing but maybe an indicator of a slowing economy.
Holding up very well despite todays potentially neg news re poss dated tax grab; big holders confident of the caltex deal being given the nod; and an independent director announced.ZEL will surely do what ever it takes to get the nod from com com.Downside risk still there though but I'm holding atp.Sold a few at the top to reduce risk more.
Sounds like they are moving along with acquisition
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-ite...S=ZEL&N=270550
Yes ; it sure feels good to be in a share hitting a new high amidst the gloom:t_up:. Synergies better than expected; confident of positive com com decision by early Dec.
The company expected 03/2017 underlying eps post-merger of 46c.
To this add an extra $10m synergies, and $24m of 'better Z performance' as announced today.
Take off tax and divide by post-takeover shares on issue of approx 430m.
Add also unaccounted-for NZR dividends of $20m.
Gives 56 cps - workings below.
PE ratio of, say, 12-16 for an established well run non-cyclical business.
Gives a valuation range of approx $7-$10.
And $4-$6 if the t/o fails.
Simplified Z valuation post Chevron takeover SOI post takeover 2) 429.84 ul EPS mar17 post t/o 2) 0.46 Extra $10m synergies 1) 0.017 Better Z performance 24m from 2017 1) 0.040 Est ul EPS to 31/3/17 0.517 NZR dividends 0.046 31/3/17 est ul EPS 0.563 1) https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/221242.pdf 2) p12 https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/214141.pdf 3) 41cps FI *48m shares held / 430m SOI
I remember Rod Oram saying ZEL will be worth re half as much again if this goes thru or something like that. Thanks banter; holding tight atp. Management extremely confident of a yes from comcom.JT
Infratil/super fund selling their stakes. Anyone buying from Craigs? I decided not to.
Superfund still keeping 10% i heard. How much are they ,re $6?. Int they sold before the deal was done on Caltex.The s/p will rise higher .Creates a little doubt about comcoms decision.
Not the best of timing to buy into a float with Mr Market threatening to morph into a Bear with claws.......but its a good time to exit at a top price..eh?.. $6.00 - $6.20 will be the market price floor (support) during the process...It would be interesting to see what would happen if NZSE suffered another down wave during the process ..could we see the ZEL drop below is book build price??....Whatever the outcome the market will see this as "Smart Money" exiting.
Infratil and NZ Super to sell Z shares
You will also have seen in the Media today that Carters have shelved their float due to poor market conditions
During the process - wont the process be done and dusted by COB today?
The question must be asked why IFT are selling. They have held onto 20% of Metlife so they cant say it is standard operating procedure. Likewise they cant say they need the cash as I though they were swimming in it at the moment, unless they have a big purchased lined up.
ift say at a presentation I attended a couple mths ago they would sell z as it was a mature investment for them and they are looking to invest funds in growth assets
They would get more though after com com gave the goahead re caltex hence what have they heard re com com?
A great technical chart...In hindsight I wish I was in ZEL (money invested elsewhere).
Still in a strong bull mode.
Crafty buggers setting the float price around $6.20 as that price and down to $6.10 will not cause any Technical breaks...
Note:...I'm not a great Trend fan as trendline break during corrections...but look at the primary trend line and notice it had tandem support with the EMA100...together they reinforced that rising support into a very strong supporting structure...
Personally, I would not have sold out on some sell signals knowing that as long as that strong tandem trend held I would assume it would only be a shallow correction playing out.
Where to now?...In a trading halt
The chart is strong no sell signals to date
With the float to be announced I would look to see if 663 becomes a top (a resistance point)...if so I would apply the investing law .. don't buy near resistance levels, buy near support levels with tight stops..
Disc:..Due to the bearish NZ market, I'm bound to my TA discipline to cease buying. Best of luck to the buyers..
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/q...2029092015.png
ZEL has been a good investment for IFT. Against market sentiment, IFT's price is up today so far. Perhaps some think it is an opportune time for IFT to exit? MET's SP is up too - does the market think that IFT may be looking to use some of the proceeds to increase its stake in MET?
Maybe but personally its not encouraging me to take up craigs offer ; not that I've heard from them atp.
Yes very interesting JT,I didn't take up any of the offer or any of the Contact offer(its back to around its offer price) .As Hoop suggests this will most likely reset its share price back to the book build price until the details of the Caltex deal becomes known
What does Infratil know that we don't know ??? Possibilities
Caltex deal in doubt ???
A bigger opportunity coming up for Infratil at a discounted price ???
A big market drop coming up ???
Infratil can't see markets recovering soon or any new opportunities so paying spare cash back to shareholders ???
Yes more prequels then astarwars movie. I still haven't been contacted by my advisor which suggests all the instos and Big sophs may have hoovered up the offer. If so thats a good thing.
I hope the regulators investigate the trading in the last 2 weeks.
Trust but clarify is the mantra!
Yep its over bought on the William %R (14) too...The Williams is OK to use..It can be dramatic at times with small non-volatile movements but you can get use to that when you know how the Williams is calculated...Williams can come in handy or can be a curse when stock prices flatline and indicators become less reliable...
The reason why I haven't included it... is...no reason really:)...I had a set of indicators already locked in the program when I actioned the ZEL chart
I've already got a momentum oscillator included, that of RSI (14).......William %R is also a momentum Oscillator ...They both telling the same story (over bought)
Hmm... there is strange behaviour.....a mass of buy signals triggered during a flatline of the share price thanks to a big volume day on the 27th August..there was no announcements around this time, but at that time Mr Market called it smart money entering...The price Gap up on the 23rd Sept was when ZEL updated the Market, however the Market had already commenced its rally a couple of weeks before..so a fair question for a Chartist to ask... "was this announcement anticipated?"
Done and dusted.Trading halt lifted.Shares sold to a mix of retail and institutional shareholders. Hoping for the s/p to not fall far today.Did anyone get offered any shares from their adviser/broker?
Opening @$6.00 $6.01
Now $5.75!. what was the placement done at???.
Yip...I bought in for a quick trade the other day, now sitting on my biggest unrealised loss I have had...:-(
The timing of the float is regrettable..it's never a good idea floating during a down wave that looks like the death of the 6.5 year old ancient bull.
Crafty buggers setting the float price around $6.20 as that price and down to $6.10 will not cause any Technical breaks...Maybe I gave them too much credit.....the book build at $6.00 will trigger TA sell signals....
Mr Market is not stupid and this float action is viewed as not a great proposition and Mr Market has priced it below float price...At $5.80 this morning the great looking chart before the trading halt has suddenly broken down and firing of sell signals...The trend is still intact, breaking $5.60 would end the present bull tide....
....so I would apply the investing law .. don't buy near resistance levels, buy near support levels with tight stops..Buying on the $5.60 support would be hazardous to your financial health as it could gap down if broken ..beware
No , true..but it has...fallen to 5.79 but seems to be bottoming out for the time being..
I would apply the investing law .. don't buy near resistance levels, buy near support levels with tight stops.. Well well well $6.00 was meant to be the support floor and an attractive price level to buy into the float...however the plans of mice and men went astray and now the $6.00 is the the ceiling, a resistance point and so theoretically not an attractive price level to buy into the float...
Disc:....TA kicked me out of my final remaining share yesterday...All in Cash now (apart from the 2 dogs in my bottom draw kennel)
Monumental stuff up for holders; with com com decision to come.
I do hope regulators look into trading details/patterns in the last few weeks.
I also find it strange that Infratil boss continues to be a board member of ZEL. In my view he should leave!
I also can't believe they would sell down before comcom publishes its decision on the Caltex acquisition. What do they know that the market doesn't?
What re 128 million plus shares sold; $770 million worth.No new 5% holders announced atp.So Infratils 80 mill shares + NZSF's 38.9 mill shares=118.9 mill. Re another 9-10 million been dumped today as well. People/Instos selling out becoming risk averse to poss neg com/com decision....risk on in dodgy mkts. There will be some buyers really pissed off with there brokers/advisors and public relations soured atp.As well as the poss manipulation of s/p up, mentioned on here Im thinking com com will give the go ahead but ZEL may have to sell something/s; but I'm just surmising ;and holding my shares atp.
ACC are a new 5% plus holder. Taken up some of NZ Super's dump maybe.Fine by me and a vote of confidence. ACC's track record has been excellent but I'm not up to date with the performance comparisons.
Yeah sometimes TA just creates a big sticky tangle to trap one to be negative/ numb. Meanwhile I'm on my way to double bagger at this rate.
Craigs revised their 12 month target price up 22c to $6.81 back in Sep.. Currently $6.74 and rising; some super confident of a positive decision re takeover; hope they are right .
Z Energy record profit forecast
Looking better better better biker. Now we await com com