A day of surprise, and not just for me (I am sure)
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Baa_Baa
I think they did very well not to be caught immediately in the current sector down draught that would be top of mind for the promoters.
Stags would be few imo if they had considered that. In an up trending sector, sure, the stags would be all over this. I'm not sure many were though, it was too risky with the sector backdrop to stag an IPO profit.
The market today verified its listing price as fair and reasonable, and the promoters will earn their commission regardless.
On Monday the company is listed alongside the others. From here on the market determines the company value.
My view is that in the short term at least, they will suffer the downdraft associated with the sector, the SP will move with it and the investors who have done their homework will flick out on a slightest move southwards and buy back in later.
Personally I think it's at fair value on the information provided but as some suggest that information may be overly optimistic. Seems a risky play until it settles in to a rhythm.
I am quite shocked OCA didn't do better on the first day, apparent huge demand, only listing this year, attractive long term sector tailwinds... how could it not finish up at least on the first day?! But I do agree with the above... I think the general concerns around the entire sector were realized for OCA on Friday... almost reminds me of exactly what happened when ARV listed in December 2014... similar company (although OCA is much bigger, and has a much bigger development pipeline) and went up a fraction, before finishing at listing price... then trended downward as the market struggled to price it (believe the story), before a huge re-rating caused it to be the best performer on the stock exchange by a blue mile (last year)
I believe it is trading a fair bit below 'fair value' , however the market has clearly decided OCA's forecasts are overly optimistic, and skeptical why it took nearly 3 years to bring it to market ... time will tell if these concerns are warranted. Oceania’s has been owned for the past 12 years through Macquarie Infrastructure and Real Assets’ managed funds, not exactly a PE Feltex, DSE or TGH quick pump and dump (no articles before, during and after the offer closed saying how great demand has been, and how easy the shares have been to sell were also not present as per typical PE listing). Perhaps some have forgotten SUM was also PE?
Maybe the market also has concerns on this (like they did with all the supposed accounting issues ARV would have?). Perhaps, ironically, even if it missed it by a mile and had no growth from 2017 to 2018, it would still be the cheapest retirement play on an underlying basis!
(would it be bold for me to say I thin they will exceed FY18 guidance?)
Early next week we could see a hangover from the stags who thought they could make a tidy double digit percentage gain on the first day, now not interested in holding any longer and will sell at (nearly) any price, but once thing settle down (and broker reports come out?) we could see an uplift in price, the price moving no where, or perhaps it even trending down due to negative sector tail winds... so who really knows... again, time will tell.
Disclosure: Brought some at 82 cents, under 10 PE if they hit FY18 targets
The bigwigs are buying from day 1
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Roger
Not too late to switch...you know you want that proven thoroughbred rather than some filly that struggled through the trials with only just enough form to make it to the starting gate and might even fall at the first hurdle :D
Old Mark and Jill, some of the bigwig insiders at Oceania with millions of shares already between them (General Manager Property and General Manager, Sales, Marketing & Villages respectively) must be taking some big risks dishing out a couple hundred thousand between them... given OCA's apparent dreadful lack of growth and 'dog like' structure eh?
Reminds me of when 2 or 3 Arvida directors were buying in the mid 80 cents... which was largely ignored by the wider market.
They fact they brought on day 1 shows you either that they wanted more shares (exposure) to the company than the company gave them and/or how confident they must be in OCA's prospects to go out now and buy asap... results after all aren't that far away.
Get in while you can? (or not)
Trading in OCA shares in the last month has been interesting, while the share price initially rose strongly (from 82 cents, to the 86 cents it is at now), for the past couple weeks it has been pretty stagnant, nearly always at 86 cents.
Volumes have nearly always been around a million or more (fairly significant I think), but the sells at 86 cents always seem to be around 400k, while the buys at 85 always seem to be 700k (with the total buys always being a few 100k above the total sells).
Looks like someone is definitely drip feeding the market... they aren't too happy selling below 86 cents... while buyers aren't to happy paying more than 85 cents... bit of a stand off is occurring and has been for a good couple weeks now... yet the reasonable volumes, sometimes those volumes are enough to also have the highest value of the 5 listed operators, which is even more interesting given the amount of free float in OCA currently, and the market cap (2nd lowest).
No worries. Annual results coming in about 2 weeks, will bowl over any and all sellers below 90 cents ;)
Another day, another record
Wow, another day solid day for OCA, nobody selling till 90 cents now.
Well done to all the holders, less than 2 weeks till full year results are released.
Also something to note: OCA is now (finally) trading above Forward FY18 PE of 10, I think it is now a huge 10.6 (still the cheapest in the sector by miles*, another 10 cents and we might have something closer to fair value... which is still lower than the top end of what they were trying to flog it for in the first place)