Increasing their range,will cost.
The dividend yield is very high,compared to overpriced growth stocks I agree,yet I think a long term PE of 12.2 is too high for this under achiever.
Will continue to watch, from a safe distance, with interest?!
Printable View
Well the EMA 200day is $1.17 and the share price has gone through it at $1.18,so hopefully you are at the beginning of a new uptrend.
I do note the EMA 200 day has not turned up,so it may need a few days to confirm the uptrend.
SCT has also turned up.
Must admit I am puzzled by both.
given all the excitement around PEB and OHE nobody seems to have noticed that MVN released their HY results:
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/204414.pdf
Revenue (slightly) down; earnings (slightly) up. Quite positive outlook (expect FY results to be at upper end of 15 to 25% increase to last year - i.e. basically hinting 9 cts EPS for FY 15), and seem to be on track to release their new product range early 2015.
Still - even with the promised EPS, they would need to pay some of the dividend out of the cash flow ... but the gap is closing.
Market seems to like the announcement - the upwards trend received today another nice push ....
I noticed and read the report last night but it doesn't take much enthusiasm showed on here to bring out the knocking brigade. Disc-Happy to Hold
Yes I saw the announcement.
Positive, as is the rising sp.
Still all about fixing things so business 'fit' for the future
Still 25% forecast increase in earnings this year good sign
Result just as expected and typical MVN performance
Your divie be OK
Head honcho on the radio this morning
http://www.radionz.co.nz/audio/player/20158681
if it is 'Fixed for the Future' you guys should be looking at (demanding) a divie of at least 12 cents this year, if not 13 cents
Craig's now have a "hold" recommendation with a target price of $1.30.
Ho Hum...BB is still here and purchased another lot recently at 1.10...dividend yield is still over 10% for me. I see nothing much has changed posting wise:D
A bit has changed with MVN.
More funds from cash flow and increased debt used for acquisition and increase stock holding,[which I take is the larger range of products they are now offering].
Ordinary equity of $42.9 mil looks a bit light should one take off the $33.6mil of intangibles they have on their balance sheet,leaving only.$9.3mil net ordinary equity?
Why would anyone release their half year report on December 31st? Looks like they had to work overtime to the last minute to get the report (covering the first half to Sept 30) out in time.
Sales revenue slightly down (again), though with enough currency exchange acrobatic it is basically no change to last year. NPAT slightly up (good - but nothing sensational). Hardly any measurable inroads into UK and China market. They boost a 3 digit NPAT growth in the UK, but unfortunately based on a very small base (from $87k to $369k) - and NPAT in China is even going backwards and negative (but related to a still smaller base). Apparently all will be better in the second half with some major projects seeing completion.
So I guess what we are left with is a 4 cent divvie (as expected) and good vibes: FY result now expected to be in the upper half of the advised 15 to 25% growth compared to last year. Based on the stagnating first half, the second half ending in March 2015 better be amazing.
Balance sheet: debt ratio after purchasing their Chinese factory looks sort of o.k (47.3%), however only if we believe in the high value of the intangible assets on the balance sheet: $43.6M out of $98.2M are intangible (I suppose their IP)? If we deduct the intangible assets, than their net worth is quite minute.
Discl: holding, waiting (hopefully not again 3 full months after the end of the reporting period) and hoping for an amazing second half plus a great 2016 financial year ...
Good vibes ?????? Yeah right!!!! lol.
Good to see a newly appointed director buying shares
Working for shareholders? Or as some say not really independent as she has a vested interest
Couta will be happy ...his beloved n the Board ......and maybe Methventaps in a summerset villages. Nice
Well, I guess long term I see your point ... always somewhat uncomfortable to have a director on board with a less than impeccable record related to her judgement (referring to her selling SUM shares in April 2014 while having access to unfavourable sales figures not in the public domain).
On the other hand - I think there is enough evidence that she is well able to look after HER money, which means that short term her buying (though moderately) might be a sign that she thinks the share is undervalued.
Both Salt funds and Westpac have taken up substantial positions in MVN over the last week at near 8% each, interesting;)
Jeez after this fantastic piece of writing I hope they sell some of them
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/208301.pdf
I finished buying into Methven yesterday.
I actually have more shares than I would normally own given the actual daily turnover, but it appears I miscalculated and came out with a higher number.
So the share price has been on the up for quite a while. The divvy looks good for me and there is the chance of some upside to come.
If it misbehaves it will be gone.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Presumably they don't run this ad over in your neck of the woods......probably would cause some misbehaving. Ps Percy probably wont be joining you in the shower.
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/image/j...wCUIQosD//2Q==
Very interesting to see a couple of major brokers having MVN as a buy.
I am prepared to be proven wrong,but I feel MVN is still a proven serial under-performer.
Birmanboy;go to SEK thread!!
Result must be due any day, anyone know exactly when as website just says May?
4c dividend would be okay by me
I have just started to look at MVN's tapware products on the market. They look like the premium products. I am wondering how the madness of (AKL) housing market impacts on such premium tapware sales.
Looks like percy got it sort of right when describing MVN as serial underperformer ...
Sales basically flat (slightly down in NZ$ terms).
EBITDA and NPAT somewhat more rosy: up (NPAT +20%)
Divvie 4cts, fully imputed (no surprises)
NZ slightly down, Australia doing ok-ish (but nothing outstanding), UK earnings up (from a low base) and China experiment was a flop (though factory doing o.k.).
Net debt up by 57% - though liabilities to assets hardly changed at 47.6% (due to added Chinese factory - and again: high inventories);
What we get for free is again a cautiously optimistic outlook for a super long (15 months - they change the balance date) FY2016:
revenue up 5+ plus
Earnings up 15 ... 25%
Not sure, though whether that's just because they know the next FY will have 15 months?
Just went through the reports and updated my spreadsheets:
On the plus side:
+ forward P/E now 11.8,
+ earnings increased by a healthy 20%
+ reliable (and not too bad) divvie
+ earnings higher than divvie - i.e. they seem to be able to afford paying it.
On the less positive side:
- this is not a growth, but a shrink company! 2011 revenue was 122m, and after consistent and reliable year after year revenue drops we now ended at 96.3 m annual revenue. This is a CASR (Cyclical Annual Shrink Rate) of 6%, not the promised (and hoped for) trend change.
Ah well - the shrink rate seems to drop - you could call the shrink/growth in FY2015 nearly flat - so maybe it is the bottom this time (still hoping).
They promise a 5% plus revenue growth for next year (but I think, they did that before :()
- inventories have been too high last year - and continued to climb (now $22.5m) - that's nearly 1/4 of the total assets!
- huge amount of intangibles ($41.8m) on the balance sheet - that's 44% of the total assets - and the NTA continues to be quite low (at 11 cts / share). How much is the brand of a shrinking company (even if the products look really flash) worth?
BP, what you make off dividends paid being more than free cash flow (not counting the Invention Sanitary acquisition cost)?
BlackPeter,
How does the result compare to the 30th July presentation?
Sorry I have not had time today to read the result.
Good question. Lets see:
They promised "modest" sales revenue and earnings growth. They delivered flat sales revenue "growth", but quite acceptable earnings growth.
They promised FY2015 NPAT growth between 15 and 25% - and delivered on that (+20.9%).
They promised increased net debt (but to stay within bank covenants) - and delivered on both of these promises as well:).
They promised a new website - and delivered (though I can't really say that I am overwhelmed by performance and design) and
They promised a new product generation and delivered (the future will tell, what the markets think ...)
So I guess - not too bad (but for the flat sales revenue). They certainly disappointed a number of analysts who assumed already for FY 2015 some meaningful (and positive;)) revenue growth.
I guess you will have to decide whether you think the new products will drive sales.
Just seems to me another case of "after all said and done,there was more said, than done."
I see Norah Barlow is joining the board.Can't see that as positive.They need some one like Sarah Ottrey with "brand" and marketing expertise.
Happy with the result got my 4c Barlow on board ok by me was a winner with Summerset.
This years earnings looking good Up 15% to 25% on last years. Good
Going to increase sales from $96m now to $130m in 2018, and target 10% profit margin.
Pretty good eh
NPAT targeted to go from $5.7m to $13m in 3 years time .....thats some growth
Current PE of 14 not quite 'value' but heck 30%pa anticipated growth is tempting
Umm
Astonishing.!!!!!
Yet I am left feeling as though I have just had a cold shower.!
Pity the revenue has stayed the same while the debt has gone up.
Yes and no - depends whether they manage to turn talk into reality ...
Just looked into my wee database ... MVN used to have $130 m revenue back in 2010. If (and I think this is still a big IF) they manage to claw back all those revenue drops since then ... than MVN will have in 2018 a 8 yr CAGR of ZERO percent (vs a negative 6% at current back to 2010). A true growth company.
But hey ... I shouldn't be too cynical - I am holding myself (the divvie is not too bad, and it never felt like a good time to sell). Nice that they at least try to change the trend.
Hey Percy .... I see we are in the 'Silver Society" now
Sure was an impressive presentation and look at those numbers - $13m in 2018
What can one make out of it - maybe lots
Lets assume 5 outcomes -
1.- it all goes to plan and that $13m happens
2.- above but the market is in raptures and rerates Methven, ie a higher PE
3.- sort of goes to plan but they only get half way there
4.- its all pretty pictures and nice words and Methven struggle on as usual
5.- another GFC hits and it all turns to custard
Possible outcomes in graphic. Shows Total Shareholder Return over the 3 years and I have assigned some odds to each scenario
Could get a return of 42% pa over 3 years or lose 6% over the three years. But based on the odds I have assigned to each scenario an expected return of 20%pa
Bloody good eh
But then some of you might assign 90% to scenario 4 which ruins the story
Hmmm - have I been seduced
percy - have a look at the spanking new HQ on page 55
you love posh offices for the head honchos eh
percy - slide 38 again
multi-generational and shared living going to the way of the future
told you the kids and grandkids would come to grandpa
Thanks for the correct pages to read/look at........
I think I was right to stop at page 14..
Communal Living may be rather nice in Hamburg,but is humbug in ChCh.
Our lot would want their own bathrooms, and an out house for me at the bottom of the garden.!
Hells bells it was hard enough to get them to leave home in the first place!!!!
Didn't MVN market satinjet in America ??????
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/wat...ter-2015-08-13
Could get interesting if Nebia and MVN use the same process and MVN have a US patent
Result due soon that will tell, they are one of those companies that seldom post much to NZX; PGG, TTK and HLG are some others that make minimal announcements too.
Are you sure? Looking at their published key dates (http://www.methven.com/nz/corporate/...on/key-dates): half year results are due in February (remember - they changed their year end date from March 31 to June 30 - i.e. this financial year is for them 15 months), i.e. they might only come back in 2016.
Still - some interim announcement (after 6 months in FY2016) would be nice, but given their history in outstanding shareholder communications (anybody spotting the irony?) am I not sure, whether I would hold my breath.
With Methven no news is generally good news
BlackPeter - I am sure check for yourself, you can look at announcements over last few years to see what I mean.
Can Methven Limited benefit from lower NZD in the coming years?
Should benefit as has overseas operations.
Hi Tim - this is a good example for "past events not being an indicator for future events ;)". Sure, in the past Methven had the end of their financial year in March ... which meant half year reporting in November and full year in May.
It might have slipped your attention that they moved the end of the financial year out to June, which means this financial year has 15 months, which makes it sort of unclear when their "half year" reporting is supposed to happen (after 6 months or after 9 months or somewhere in between). What is clear is that the next full year results will be released in August 2016 ... and if the information on their website is correct, than we will need to wait until February for the half year update ... but I guess time will tell.
Half Year this year will be 9 months to December. No real comparatives to prior periods likely
Tricky stuff eh
Did they say why the change? Sometimes a 'red flag' changing balance dates.
This new shower head is brilliant ...... ( especially with the water restrictor out ) Hopefully this will boost sales , the ladies in the house have even started to use my shower :)
http://www.methven.com/nz/showering/...shower-handset
They did ... they said that they want to enhance the "predictability of financial forecast" - but why not just use their own words (from the 2015 annual report):
Attachment 7677
I am sure that the fact that they now have 15 months to beat the usual 12 month results was far off their mind when they made this decision (though who knows, maybe they like the 15 month years so much that they continue running them;)
Things really firing down Methven way
Profits up 20% last 6 months
And for you divie lovers a special 3 cent bonus coming for Xmas
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/224311.pdf
Looks good at first glance and obviously the company itself is pleased as.
Last 6 months NPAT up 20% on what prior period? I can assume but do not know.
The rolling year to Jun compared to Mar is also good but they used to complain about seasonality (or was that someone else?), so just a tiny bit of doubt at the back of my mind on what this means going forward.
Anyway not to look a gift horse in the mouth, to back it both ways, and to justify having kept them in the portfolio - I always knew they were going to turn it up a notch.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Well I am about to eat my hat.!
Always happy to be proved wrong.
Should re-rate further if/when market convinced growth is sustainable, if it is $1.50 looks well achieveable.
Looks like good news come in swarms ... MVN was granted a (up to) $3 million subsidy of their R&D cost - 20% of R&D cost for the next 3 to 5 years:
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/224359.pdf
Though I don't like the system of the government picking winners ... I guess as long as we can't change it, it is probably better if companies I am holding are receiving these grants as opposed to companies I am not holding ...;)
Discl: holding ...
Another good day in another weak market, not sure if the charties picked this one? My $1.50 would be 6% net assuming 8c per share.
That was my little analysis after that July presentation they did
Looks like the pumping on steroids Scenario is playing out - shareprice $2.58 in 2018 for a 42% pa return
No I wasn't seduced bck in July ..... share price much the same as back then so plenty of time to get seduced again
I like Stride 2 but Stride 1 would be just fine!
Maybe you could be seduced by this model?
Methven showered with praise
- Design
- March 10, 2010
- Ben Fahy
- 4 comments
http://stoppress.co.nz/media/VERSION...ticle-hero.jpg
http://stoppress.co.nz/media/images/...er-255x200.jpgMethven, the New Zealand-owned designer, marketer and exporter of water and energy efficient bathroomware, has won a Red Dot Product Design Award at the 2010 competition in Germany for its Shower Infusions, a system that "transforms a daily shower into a luxurious, mood enhancing spa experience", as can be seen from the reaction of this showering naked lady.
Methven was awarded an honourable mention and the right to use the Red Dot seal of quality on its collateral to signify the product design and innovation behind Shower Infusions, which are dispensed from an ingenious, easy-to-install pod, is among the world's best (speaking of the world's best, Auckland design outfit Alt Group picked up a few Red Dots recently too).
With the rise over the last couple of days I am nearly at break even on MVN:
dividend = capital loss so just down by the brokerage.
Plan A said I would sell if they got down to $1.10;
Plan B saw me on extended holidays and coming back to a $1.00 price.
But the current trend can be your friend.
...now where is my copy of Plan C...
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Got an email today from Methven which starts
'Dear Shareholder'
so I guess I still have some of these, although I did ignore 'Plan C'.
Anyway they keep winning awards, apparently this time in Chicago:
Aurajet Aio - Best Performance By a Shower in a Cleaning Role;
Aio Tapware - Most Nuanced Temperature Control in a Faucet.
(I may have made the awards up)
Announcement PDF << Hey look they told everyone not just me!
May be the share price will start going up again now?
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
I wish you luck Paper Tiger with your MVN,but I do note "130 years of innovation and passion for design" has not been exactly profitable for shareholders;\
11 years -35.29%
5 years -34.52%
2 years -22.54%
1 year -8.33%.
Whilst being the first to admit that I would have done slightly better to have kept my MVN purchase money under the mattress so far, it is all about the future and we will see if they can inspire us with their 9 months half year results in February.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Always looking to top up at 1.10....been a while since its this low. At 1.12 returning 6.25% plus imputation credits roughly 8.75 % gross for me currently. Gradually reducing dividend over the years but has been quite reliable. So not all gloom and doom.
HY results are out: https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/230669.pdf
While it is sort of difficult to be excited about Methven results (well, over the last 6 years or so) ... it is the first time in that many years that they managed to increase their revenue (and as well their earnings), and that they even managed to reduce debts by 10% or so. Nothing extraordinary (and revenue still ways behind the 130 million they had in 2010 - and want to achieve again in 2018), but at least are they so far at the upper end of this years guidance and predict that their year end will be as well at the upper end (which would end up in something like $105m). Still a long way to get back to $130m in 2018, but at least it looks like they managed to catch the corner ...
Discl: cautiously optimistic and (still) holding a small parcel.
Think market will re-rate when/if delivers sold next result has flattered too often in past, I'm happy holder
See Salt have upped their stake feel turnaround starting to happen...
Hit a 12 month high today - as did the Methven Share Price.
Add in the recent 4c dividend and I am showered in good fortune.
Lost somewhere in the mist-jet of time is the reason why I bought these, but it is nice that for a brief moment at least they have come good.
Fundamentally I see only a little more upside but then again I have no reason to sell them.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Hit $1.35 friday nice little re-rating starting to happen
Another week gone, a little firmer again - my $1.50 is getting closer...