Wall st set to bounce. Euro market in positive. Lets sleep on it and see in the morning.
Hope we all picked up some cheap stock these last few days. :)
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Wall st set to bounce. Euro market in positive. Lets sleep on it and see in the morning.
Hope we all picked up some cheap stock these last few days. :)
evilroyrule quote...
"..why is it all so quiet after today?.."
shhhh...we don't want to upset those 3 nearly identical black crows.
However with a Wall St bull market correction overdue (see my earlier posts) there is no surprise to me that this rare bearish candlestick formation popped up to begin a possible correction....so the warning bells have sounded.
Still hoping for a bounce today which would make the situation better with the bulls back in control I mentioned a kicker as a quick reversal back up but this is too much to ask for especially if the environment is in a corrective phase...... pre-trade is seeing the S&P at +0.83% at this moment.
www.invetrics.com:- data point 25 January 2010
(may adjust at market Open)
www.stocktiming.com: -data point 25 January 2009-
cash -data point 22 January 2010
Trader Update -data point 25 January 2010:
...the institutional index of core holdings http://i46.tinypic.com/16k3wif.jpg has broken below its Aug-Sept-Oct trendline support and considering the state of the VIX http://i46.tinypic.com/fcpi61.jpg points to a more serious correction developing, but
...so far today, the SPX 500 managed to stay above Dec 18 Low *1093 and appears to consolidate in a likely move higher to challenge the *1129/*1142 congestion near term
...if trading fails to push above this ceiling, the next down leg would start with the Aug-Sep-Oct Lows *1079 as a likely minimum target with potential to reach down as far as the Oct 2008 Low *1020
...on the other hand, based on heavily oversold short term indicators, the current extreme bearish sentiment could very well mark the end of the whole decline confirmed with a Close above the Jan 15 High *1151
Long Term: THE BEAR
_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_
Kind Regards
Afternoon - my first post over here at sharetrader :)
Dow selling off currently with CMC - down to 10104 a few minutes ago - decent gap down for the open, could be worth a fade
www.invetrics.com:- data point 26 January 2010
(may adjust at market Open)
www.stocktiming.com: -data point 26 January 2009-
cash -data point 22 January 2010
Trader Update -data point 26 January 2010:
...after yesterday's weak Close, the SPX 500 traded down to the *1084/*1090 range at the Open to find the stronger support needed for the current bounce
...the expected upside target features the *1115/*1119 range near term
...failure to break through the range on the upside would leave the market exposed to test the Nov 11 Low *1084/*1068 range
...on the other hand, based on heavily oversold short term indicators, the current extreme bearish sentiment could very well mark the end of the whole decline confirmed with a Close above the Jan 15 High *1151
The SPX 500 Hedge:
...tentatively indicating the *1084/*1090 Range support http://i45.tinypic.com/2v26q68.jpg as a starting point to a new rally leg with an initial upside target in the *1115/*1119 range
Long Term: THE BEAR
_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_
Kind Regards
Wall St and Euro market holding up.
So far so good. :)
www.invetrics.com:- data point 27 January 2010
(may adjust at market Open)
www.stocktiming.com: -data point 27 January 2009-
cash -data point 22 January 2010
Trader Update -data point 27 January 2010:
...like yesterday, the SPX 500 opened lower *1085 above the Nov 11 range *1084/*1068and holding despite downside pressure;
-today's bullish divergence between the SPX 500/Russell2000
-short term intra-day indicators are extremely oversold and
-the institutional index of core holdings http://i47.tinypic.com/23igzvc.jpg still trades with a major support broken but the higher highs/higher lows trend still intact and needs to make a lower high to complete a possible H&S formation to confirm further downside
...as a result, the index seems to be ready for an imminent oversold bounce with an expected upside target in the *1115/*1119 range near term
...failure to break through the range on the upside would leave the market exposed to test the Nov 11 Low *1084/*1068 range
...on the other hand, based on heavily oversold short term indicators, the current extreme bearish sentiment could very well mark the end of the whole decline confirmed with a Close above the Jan 15 High *1151
Long Term: THE BEAR
_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_
Kind Regards
Thanks, Phaedrus.
Puts the "great sell-off" of the last few days into perspective, doesn't it!
:cool:
www.invetrics.com:- data point 28 January 2010
(may adjust at market Open)
www.stocktiming.com: -data point 28 January 2009-
cash -data point 22 January 2010
Trader Update -data point 28 January 2010:
...the SPX 500 could not sustain yesterday's bounce and has dived to a new Low *1078 in early trading so far; the market features trend uncertainty as signalled by today's outside day so far;
...the next likely target would take the index down to the Nov 27 Low *1068
...due to extremely oversold conditions as outlined in yesterday's update, if *1078/*1068 is supported successfully, a stronger oversold bounce should challenge the Jan 26 High *1104
...failure to break through *1104 would set the stage for a deeper sell-off with the Nov 6 Low *1057 as an initial target and potential to reach out to the Nov 2 Low *1020 as a possible floor
Long Term: THE BEAR
_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_
Kind Regards
...checking market breadth today the ratio roughly = 1:3 negative
(Hedge Funds Sell the S&P 500 & Commodities (Trend Monitor Report) http://www.marketfolly.com/2010/01/h...mmodities.html
...maybe later will be a better time to top up
Kind Regards
Yes media is negative ..but they reflect the mood of the masses right or wrong.
A good strategy into entering into a correction involves using the risk V reward strategy (RVR)
The brave entering the market now ain't brave.... either they are impulsive (emotional with no discipline) or they're wimpy impatient RVR investors and are fearful that if they don't enter now they will miss out. The brave and perhaps stupid RVR investors are the buyers who hold off buying right up to the last moment, going as close as they can get to that line drawn in the sand before that wave comes in. (absolute minimum risk / absolute maximum reward)
For the average investor the line is the 1020-1030 area ... if this area is breached in a convincing fashion then the market switches primary trend and becomes down trending...a bearish area which puts the bull market under threat. The RVR investor using this line in their calulations will sell out here and take a small loss depending at what point they bought in.
As it is perceived by most investors we are in a bull market so this line area should hold...therefore the "who blinks first" situation occurs. As the line area becomes closer the RVR investors get increasingly pressured to buy.
Ichimoku would indicate kumo (cloud) support in this area
but (edit) I'm holding my shorts for now
www.invetrics.com:- data point 29 January 2010
(may adjust at market Open)
www.stocktiming.com: -data point 29 January 2009-
cash -data point 22 January 2010
Trader Update -data point 29 January 2010:
...another attempt of an oversold bounce from the *1074/*1078 range tonight which could climb as far as the Jan 26 High *1104; considering institutional action and the state of liquidity flowing into the markets http://i47.tinypic.com/2zdp2dd.jpg http://i48.tinypic.com/14tlr3c.jpg, it is doubtful, the market has posted a final Low yesterday;
...as a matter of interest, checking the internals, this morning's advance turned out to be quite tepid smelling of the absence of institutional action in terms of buying and selling; selling however, with support from institutions, started later with a much more determined approach to drive the market back towards the starting point at a minimum
...failure to break through *1104 would set the stage for a deeper sell-off with the Nov 6 Low *1057 as an initial target and potential to reach out to the Nov 2 Low *1020 as a possible floor
Long Term: THE BEAR
_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_
Kind Regards
...guessing here, but if Phaeadrus's indicator is of any value, it most likely will not go red above the *1030/*1020 range...otherwise it just would not make any sense...
and the Weekend Drama Series continues>>>
-Battle Of The Titans - JPMorgan Vs Goldman Sachs Or Why The Market Was Down for 7 Days In A Row
By Ellen Brown (WebOfDebt.com) -data point 1-29-10-
Obama: ""We can't allow financial institutions, including those that take your deposits, to take risks that threaten the whole economy. The House has already passed financial reform with many of these changes. And the lobbyists are already trying to kill it. Well, we cannot let them win this fight. And if the bill that ends up on my desk does not meet the test of real reform, I will send it back"
Keiser's January 23 http://ia350642.us.archive.org/2/ite...adio-TheTruth: "High frequency trading accounts for 70% of trading on the New York Stock Exchange. Ordinarily, a buyer and a seller show up on the floor, and a specialist determines the price of a trade that would satisfy buyer and seller, and that's the market price. If there are too many sellers and not enough buyers, the specialist lowers the price. High frequency trading as conducted by Goldman means that before the specialist buys and sells and makes that market, Goldman will electronically flood the specialist with thousands and thousands of trades to totally disrupt that process and essentially commandeer that process, for the benefit of siphoning off nickels and dimes for themselves. Not only are they siphoning cash from the New York Stock Exchange but they are also manipulating prices. What I see as a possibility is that next week, if the bankers on Wall Street decide they don't want to be reformed in any way, they simply set the high frequency trading algorithm to sell, creating a huge negative bias for the direction of stocks. And they'll basically crash the market, and it will be a standoff. The market was down three days in a row, which it hasn't been since last summer. It's a game of chicken, till Obama says, 'Okay, maybe we need to rethink this.'"
http://www.rense.com/general89/battle.htm
...wish a smaller version would be around in NZ to convince even the most stubborn car enthusiast that train travel is 'the only civilized form of continental transport' available; how long do we have to endure the NZ dinosaur type transport system until the government wakes up and stops all billion dollar subsidies which keep the traffic jungle alive and well
Travellers board a high-speed train which heads to Guangzhou in Wuhan, Hubei province, on Boxing Day; as a matter of fact, those type trains have run in Germany for donkey's years...
Kind Regards
January 29, 2010 – LUNCH WITH DAVE
Lunch with Dave — The Houdini Recovery
The growth bulls are out in full force in the aftermath of the release of Q4 GDP in the U.S.
Real GDP came in at 5.7% QoQ annualized rate in Q4, but it was dominated by a huge inventory adjustment
First, the report was dominated by a huge inventory adjustment — not the onset of a new inventory cycle, but a transitory realignment of stocks to sales. Excluding the inventory contribution, GDP would have advanced at a much more tepid 2.2% QoQ annual rate, not really that much better than the soft 1.5% reading in the third quarter.
Second, it was a tad strange to have had inventories contribute half to the GDP tally, and at the same time see import growth cut in half last quarter. Normally, inventory adds are at least partly fuelled by purchases of foreign-made inputs. Not this time. Strip out inventories and the foreign trade sector, we see that domestic demand growth in the fourth quarter actually slowed to a paltry 1.7% annual rate from 2.3% in the third quarter. Some recovery. Based on some simulations we ran, demand growth with all the massive doses of fiscal and monetary stimulus should already be running in excess of a 10% annual rate. So, the real question that nobody seems to ask is why it is that underlying demand conditions are still so benign more than two years after the greatest stimulus of all time. The answer is that this epic credit collapse is a pervasive drain on spending and very likely has another five years to play out.
Third, if you believe the GDP data — remember, there are more revisions to come — then you de facto must be of the view that productivity growth is soaring at over a 6% annual rate. No doubt productivity is rising — just look at the never-ending slate of layoff announcements. But we came off a cycle with no technological advance and no capital deepening, so it is hard to believe that productivity at this time is growing at a pace that is four times the historical norm. Sorry, but we're not buyers of that view. In the fourth quarter, aggregate private hours worked contracted at a 0.5% annual rate and what we can tell you is that such a decline in labour input has never before, scanning over 50 years of data, coincided with a GDP headline this good. Normally, GDP growth is 1.7% when hours worked is this weak, and that is exactly the trend that was depicted this week in the release of the Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index, which was widely ignored. On the flip side, when we have in the past seen GDP growth come in at or near a 5.7% annual rate, what is typical is that hours worked grows at a 3.7% rate. No matter how you slice it, the GDP number today represented not just a rare but an unprecedented event, and as such, we are willing to treat the report with an entire saltshaker — a few grains won’t do.
Fourth, while the Chicago PMI and the revision to the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index also served up positive surprises, the “hard” data in terms of housing starts, home sales and consumer spending suggest that there is little, if any, momentum heading into early 2010. Moreover, the prospect that we see a discernible slowing in the pace of economic activity this quarter and a relapse in the second quarter is non trivial, in my view — by then, today's flashy headline will be a distant memory.
Remember, there are more revisions to come to this GDP report
----SPX 500 *870 would be more like a bargain tempting point to top up----
Kind Regards
www.invetrics.com:- data point 01 February 2010
(may adjust at market Open)
www.stocktiming.com: -data point 01 February 2009-
cash -data point 22 January 2010-
Trader Update -data point 01 February 2010:
...the SPX 500 is bouncing back from the Jan 29 Low *1072 and is heading up to challenge Friday's High *1097; short- to intermediate term indicators are extremely oversold http://i49.tinypic.com/2cs6w0o.jpg http://i47.tinypic.com/3517sr6.jpg but the institutional index of core holdings http://i50.tinypic.com/2vcxsoj.jpg broke its uptrend and continues heading south; additionally, longer term momentum indicators crossed over indicating further downside price pressure
...as a consequence, selling the rallies appears to be the correct strategy for now until market internals are set up to continue the March 09 bull trend
...based on A/D internals today, the current bounce is missing broad based support and the index could stall beneath *1097 for another dive to test the Nov 6 Low *1057 as a potential near term floor
...ultimately however, it is unlikely, that the market will be happy with anything else but a minimum Nov 2 Low *1030 or the 200 MA *1014 with potential to reach down to the *1000 psych barrier as the stronghold from which the March bull run could continue
Long Term: THE BEAR
_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_
Kind Regards
Glen has stayed his hand in Oz, surprising the market.
Reasons stated: watching impact of previous hikes.
More likely reasons: turmoil over Eurozone trouble, SinoUS tensions and Sino credit tightening.
My expectations: Down moves looking likely in the short-term ...
stocktiming.com:
...some statistics about the NYSE algorithm over a period of the last eleven years:
-this indicator moved to this extreme low point 11 times over the last eleven years
-most of the times, the market saw more down movement for the next 5 days (one time showed 10 days)
-twice, the market went up for 5 days then dropped lower for a week
-a few times, the market hit bottom within 24 hours
Kind Regards
www.invetrics.com:- data point 02 February 2010
(may adjust at market Open)
www.stocktiming.com: -data point 02 February 2009-
cash -data point 22 January 2010-
Trader Update -data point 02 February 2010:
...the SPX is extending the oversold bounce from Jan 29 Low *1072 and price action is very close to the 38.2% retrace of the Jan Break *1102
...failure at that point should start another move down to test the trendline support off of Oct/Nov Lows *1057
Long Term: THE BEAR
_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_
Kind Regards
www.invetrics.com:- data point 03 February 2010
(may adjust at market Open)
www.stocktiming.com: -data point 03 February 2009-
cash -data point 22 January 2010-
Trader Update -data point 03 February 2010:
...the SPX oversold counter-trend rally from Jan 29 Low *1072 appears to have run out of steam; price action to the downside so far is moderate however, still leaving the upside door open for another possible push higher; the next upside targets would be the 20-day MA/50-day MA cross-over *1110 or the Jan 22 High *1115
...failure in that range or closing below yesterday's High *1103 today should start another move down to test the trendline support off of Oct/Nov Lows *1057 initially
Long Term: THE BEAR
_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_
Kind Regards
www.invetrics.com:- data point 04 February 2010
(may adjust at market Open)
www.stocktiming.com: -data point 04 February 2009-
cash -data point 22 January 2010-
Trader Update -data point 04 February 2010:
...the SPX 500 got truly hammered in the wake of disappointing employment data and severed the Jan 29 near term support with an intraday Low *1068; it all looks a bit much for one trading day and it is doubtful that *1072 will be taken out on a Close basis, as the 2-days oversold bounce appears to have been pre-maturely sliced dead
...if *1072 holds the index may consolidate for a while in the *1072/*1105 range before *1072 most likely will bite the dust in an impulsive sell-off with the 200-day MA as an initial target
...checking market internals, the Trin ranges close to 3 intraday...
Long Term: THE BEAR
_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_
Kind Regards
thats a huge red candle !
the force must be strong.
on bad days, sing this song to yourself and remember the good times you have had with your portfolio. the good times that you have shared. and the good times that may lie ahead for you.
you may like to insert the name of your favourite share in place of star. it works equally well if you sing it as "catch a falling knife"
Catch a falling star, Never let it fade away!
Catch a falling star and put it in your pocket,
Save it for a rainy day!
For love may come an' tap you on the shoulder,
Some star-less night!
Just in case you feel you wanna hold her,
Youll have a pocketful of starlight!
Catch a falling star and ( Catch a falling . . . ) put it in your pocket,
Never let it fade away! ( Never let it fade away! )
Catch a falling star and ( Catch a falling . . . ) put it in your pocket,
Save it for a rainy day! ( Save it for a rainy day! )
For when your troubles start a multiplying,
An' they just might!
It's easy to forget them without trying,
With just a pocketful of starlight!
Catch a falling star and ( Catch a falling . . . ) put it in your pocket,
Never let it fade away! ( Never let it fade away! )
Catch a falling star and put it in your pocket,
Save it for a rainy day!
Save it for a rainy day! (put in bottom drawer)
www.invetrics.com:- data point 05 February 2010
(may adjust at market Open)
www.stocktiming.com: -data point 05 February 2009-
cash -data point 22 January 2010-
Trader Update -data point 05 February 2010:
...the SPX 500 broke the Jan 29 near term key support *1072 yesterday and traded lower off the trendline support of the Sept/Oct Lows *1059 today pointing the way to a deeper correction ahead
the Trin closed at 3.42 yesterday and a Close above 3 usually marks an exhaustion point; as a consequence, the market appears ready for a bounce into the the key support *1072/*1085 range;
...failure in that range would set the 200-day MA as the next target with potential to reach out for the Aug 17 Low *979
...the institutional index of core holdings http://i46.tinypic.com/epeslt.jpg is less than 1.5% away from a secondary support drawn off the March 30/July 2009 Low
Long Term: THE BEAR
...covering short position at SPX 500 *1056 turned out a bit early but a safe bet
...here is an article dwelling on the benefits of Not sitting like a duck, eyes glazed over, in front of a shot gun barrell:
...
Being Street Smart
Sy Harding
Can Corrections Be Better Than Rallies?
February 5 2010
Twenty years ago, just prior to the 1990 recession, I wrote a little booklet for my subscribers which I titled ‘Bear Markets Are Best’. Its premise was not that bear markets are really better than bull markets, but that they are not something to be feared, and do have some advantages over bull markets. The same goes for intermediate-term corrections within bull markets.
For instance, if y ou position for them in a reasonably timely manner, not just by moving to cash to avoid losses, but to downside positions that go up when the market goes down, the profits can come faster than they do in rallies and bull markets.
That’s because the market moves down much faster in corrections than it moves up in rallies.
For instance, in the 1990 bear market the S&P 500 lost the gains of the previous 15 months in just four months of decline. An investor playing the downside could have made at least some portion of 15 months of gains in just four months, rather than giving back 15 months of gains. In the 1987 bear market the S&P 500 lost the gains of the previous 18 months in just three months. In the 2000-2002 bear market it lost the previous four years of gains in two and half years. In the recent 2007-2009 bear market it lost its previous five years of gains in just 17 months.
At the present time, since its peak on January 19, just over two weeks ago, the S&P has lost all its gains of the previous three months, closing Thursday at its level of November 5.
It is an important lesson not just for buy and hold investors, but for all investors. When market declines take place, if no action is taken, previous gains can be given back much quicker than they were made. Just avoiding at least some of the decline is advantageous to long-term investing performance. If even partial downside positioning is taken in time, further gains can actually be made from the market decline.
In the ‘old days’ prior to the introduction of bear-type mutual funds, and the more recent introduction of ‘inverse’ mutual funds and ‘inverse’ etf’s, investors could only take advantage of market corrections to avoid large losses, and then make some of the profits all over again by getting back in at lower prices.
Even that strategy produced significant market-beating performances.
In 1986 Norman Fosbach included a study in his book Market Logic covering the period from 1964-1984, in which he found that an investor starting with $100,000 in 1964 would have produced a gain of $775,000 over the 20-year period on a buy and hold basis, using the S&P 500 as the proxy. That’s a substantial gain.
However, his study found that if an investor could have timed only the major market swings over the period he would have turned the $100,000 into $13,810,000 over the same period. And timing only successfully enough to avoid the three worst downturns of that 20-year period would have turned $100,000 into $4,797,000, almost six times as much as the market made on a buy and hold basis.
In fact, Fosbach’s study found that any degree of success at all in avoiding even a portion of downdrafts had a tremendous effect on long-term accumulation of wealth. His study showed that if one recognized a correction was underway only perceptively enough to sell short for only one-fourth of each of the three worst corrections during the twenty-year period, and remained invested through all the rest of the downturns, he still would have tripled the return of a buy and hold strategy.
I haven’t run the numbers, but given the market’s periodic give-back of previous gains over the last twenty years, which I noted at the top of the column, it seems obvious that it has been the same situation for the last 20 years. Avoiding even a portion of the big losses, or even better, to make additional gains from downside positions during at least portions of big declines, can be a major influence on long-term investing success.
Given the market’s action of the last two weeks it might be something investors would do well to study up on.
Kind Regards
Agree with Belg...a good article Ananda.
These articles surface every once in a while and when they do they are always a "must read"... Over time, we tend to lose investment focus with all the outside interference such as the hype and market noise. These articles help regain that focus.
LOL, some great commentary there ananda, very graphical in the mind :p
Also really good article, nice find.
The gains from also being cash out at key or certain times and whilst using the general market gravity to take Short positions as long alternatives.
Meaning trade the direction of what the general market/index is doing and dont fight it, go with it.
Problem is for most folks or the majority is they are holding stocks and thats all they are doing, holding them and waiting and this unfortunately means when the Tide turns, the gains get washed away but they eventually get it back when the tide turns again.
Again, great post. Thanks~!
The SPX 500 Hedge update:
and it seems very likely, considering Friday's price action, that the index will at least challenge the Feb 4 High *1004
...failure at this point would motivate more selling and new Lows ahead
a successful challenge of *1104 would set the stage for the market to mount another challenge with the *1130 level as target
...failure at this point on a Close basis would indicate *1151 as a market top and motivate more selling with new Lows ahead
a successful challenge of *1130 would signal a market which is prepared to challenge the Jan 11 High *1151 with potential to reach a new High with an initial target range *1161/*1167
Warning: the market is at an important junction; if institutional pivot point support http://i50.tinypic.com/2nbhpqe.jpg is not holding and liquidity http://i46.tinypic.com/2ekrlp2.jpg remains in contraction with institutional selling http://i46.tinypic.com/2hmkigw.jpg increasing -the market is in danger of crashing-
Kind Regards
www.invetrics.com:- data point 08 February 2010
(may adjust at market Open)
www.stocktiming.com: -data point 08 February 2009-
cash -data point 22 January 2010-
Trader Update -data point 08 February 2010:
...the SPX 500 is extending a corrective bounce up that started Friday 5 in late trading and appears to be headed into the *1073/*1080 range short term; at the time of writing, the index has already reached an intraday High *1070 where some selling became apparent
...failure in that range would set a new down target in the *1030/*1017 range, the Oct/Nov 2009 Lows with potential to reach down to the Aug 17 Low *979
Long Term: THE BEAR
...quick update on the GO...
*1073/*1080 appears to be firm resistance and the lower end of the range *1073 -if failing as support- would signal another sell-off is imminent; would not want to be in a long position below *1073 -more sometime later-
Kind Regards
a couple of days after the hammer and we get a morning star engulfing pattern, possibly the best sign of a turnaround yet. not that I'm overly bullish, its not a huge number of points.... but its perhaps a warning that the bounce may not have fully played out yet. (And that there may be better times to add more shorts)
www.invetrics.com:- data point 09 February 2010
(may adjust at market Open)
www.stocktiming.com: -data point 09 February 2009-
cash -data point 22 January 2010-
Trader Update -data point 09 February 2010:
...the SPX 500 extended a corrective bounce up that started Friday 5 in late trading and headed into the *1073/*1080 range today before reversing to a Close below *1073 the low limit resistance of the Feb 4 congestion
...intraday trading was well supported around the *1060 level and as long as this level remains supported the market tone would be favorable to carry the index towards the Jan 22 congestion *1110
...failure in the *1060 range would move the index to the Feb 5 Low *1044 initially with sharp rebound potential to set the index up with a double bottom to go for the Jan 11 High *1151; penetrating *1044 would signal continued bearish potential with lower Lows ahead
Long Term: THE BEAR
www.invetrics.com:- data point 10 February 2010
(may adjust at market Open)
www.stocktiming.com: -data point 10 February 2009-
cash -data point 22 January 2010-
Trader Update -data point 10 February 2010:
...a brief display of weakness, had the SPX 500 severe the *1060 support with an intraday Low *1059 so far and the current ongoing attempt to push higher into the *1080/*1090 congestion appears laboured with a down bias remaining
...failure in that range would indicate a readiness of the market to sell off down to the Feb 5 Low *1044 initially with sharp rebound potential to set the index up with a double bottom to go for the Jan 11 High *1151 (??eventually??)
...penetrating *1044 would signal continued bearish potential with lower Lows ahead
Long Term: THE BEAR
Kind Regards
www.invetrics.com:- data point 11 February 2010
(may adjust at market Open)
www.stocktiming.com: -data point 11 February 2009-
cash -data point 22 January 2010-
Trader Update -data point 11 February 2010:
...the SPX 500 overcame early weakness with *1060 support holding so far and the current ongoing attempt to push higher into the *1080/*1090 congestion appears ongoing; there should be enough strength above *1071 to trade into the range short term
...failure in that range would indicate a readiness of the market to sell off down to the Feb 5 Low *1044 initially and penetrating *1044 would signal continued bearish potential with lower Lows ahead
Long Term: THE BEAR
Kind Regards
www.invetrics.com:- data point 12 February 2010
(may adjust at market Open)
www.stocktiming.com: -data point 12 February 2009-
cash -data point 22 January 2010-
Trader Update -data point 12 February 2010:
...the SPX 500 overcame early weakness with *1060 support still holding so far and the current attempt to push higher into the *1086/*1094 congestion appears ongoing; there should be enough strength above *1061 to trade into the range short term; considering market internals however; there is big risk out there that *1060 support is on its way out...
...failure in that range would indicate a readiness of the market to sell off down to the Feb 5 Low *1044 initially and penetrating *1044 would signal continued bearish potential with lower Lows ahead
Long Term: THE BEAR
Kind Regards
www.invetrics.com:- data point 16 February 2010
(may adjust at market Open)
www.stocktiming.com: -data point 16 February 2009-
cash -data point 22 January 2010-
Trader Update -data point 16 February 2010:
...after the SPX 500 successfully held the Jan 11 Low *1061 as support last Friday, the market rallied up today to test the *1090/*1097 range as expected; the institutional index of core holdings http://i49.tinypic.com/9rrbdg.jpg remians in a downtrend and liquidity inflows (Fed/Foreign) http://i50.tinypic.com/w7ip37.jpg remains in contraction territory so far; risk is high for the market to continue its negative bias
...failure in that range would indicate a readiness of the market to sell off down to the Feb 5 Low *1044 initially and penetrating *1044 would signal continued bearish potential with lower Lows ahead
Long Term: THE BEAR
Kind Regards
yeh its noticeable too that the 1095 area is the kijun sen (in pink) line of resistance using the ichi moku daily , kumo cloud above at 1110
...yes, after today's action on !low volume! (again), as long as the market stays below *1110 towards the end of the week, the bear will bite again, otherwise the index will trade to the *1130/*1140 range
...watch the SPX 500 consolidation *1085/*1110 pattern in the futures and open US market tonight
Kind Regards
Hi Peat,
Thanks for posting the Ichi moku style SPX 500 updates; another way of posting the charts is:
-to upload the file to www.tinypic.com
-copy the file
-and paste it into your post
in that way, those interested can see the chart without 'log on'
Thanks
www.invetrics.com:- data point 17 February 2010
(may adjust at market Open)
www.stocktiming.com: -data point 17 February 2009-
cash -data point 22 January 2010-
Trader Update -data point 17 February 2010:
...slight profit taking down from the Feb 5 Peak *1105 but the market remains strong above *1093 intraday so far supporting the view that another High is in the making for Thursday trading; however, market breadth has weakened considerably and momentum points to a heavily overbought market; risk is still high for a bearish reversal near term
...important price levels for a market top is a Close below the Feb 11 Peak *1080 and a Close below the Feb 5 Low *1056 is needed to signal a market ready to push for new Lows
...most likely is a trading range between *1060/*1100 near term with high potential to break down to test the 200-day MA *1025 minimum
Long Term: THE BEAR
Kind Regards
www.invetrics.com:- data point 18 February 2010
(may adjust at market Open)
www.stocktiming.com: -data point 18 February 2009-
cash -data point 22 January 2010-
Trader Update -data point 18 February 2010:
...ahead of option expiry, the market remains strong above *1093 intraday so far supporting the view that another High is in the making for Thursday trading; however, market breadth has weakened considerably and momentum points to a heavily overbought market; risk is still high for a bearish reversal near term
...important price levels for a market top is a Close below the Feb 11 Peak *1080 and a Close below the Feb 5 Low *1056 is needed to signal a market ready to push for new Lows
...most likely is a trading range between *1060/*1100 near term with high potential to break down to test the 200-day MA *1025 minimum
Long Term: THE BEAR
Kind Regards
the action often happens after your posts a77 !
it got rejected pretty savagely from just below that cloud at 1108 this morning.... yes I know there was a news event funny how they often happen at critical TA points though
www.invetrics.com:- data point 19 February 2010
(may adjust at market Open)
www.stocktiming.com: -data point 19 February 2009-
cash -data point 22 January 2010-
Trader Update -data point 19 February 2010:
...the SPX 500 inches higher with anemic volume after penetrating the Feb 2 High *1105 and looks set to trade into the Jan 23 congestion *1123 next week
...important price levels for a market top is a Close below the Feb 11 Peak *1080 and a Close below the Feb 5 Low *1056 is needed to signal a market ready to push for new Lows
...most likely is a trading range between *1060/*1123 near term with high potential to break down to test the 200-day MA *1025 minimum
Long Term: THE BEAR
Kind Regards
www.invetrics.com:- data point 22 February 2010
(may adjust at market Open)
www.stocktiming.com: -data point 22 February 2009-
cash -data point 22 January 2010-
Trader Update -data point 22 February 2010:
...the SPX 500 consolidating above Feb 5 High *1105 on extremely light flows and looks set to trade into the Jan 23 congestion *1123* with potential to reach out to the Jan 20 Low *1129 this week
...important price levels for a market top is a Close below the Feb 11 Peak *1080 and a Close below the Feb 5 Low *1056 is needed to signal a market ready to push for new Lows
...most likely is a trading range between *1060/*1123 near term with high potential to break down to test the 200-day MA *1025 minimum
Long Term: THE BEAR
Kind Regards
www.lincolnfx.com: -data point 23 February 2010
www.invetrics.com:- data point 23 February 2010
(may adjust at market Open)
www.stocktiming.com: -data point 23 February 2009-
cash -data point 22 January 2010-
Trader Update -data point 23 February 2010:
...the SPX 500 initially pushed below intraday first support *1105 and never looked back, right now just cliffhanging on the *1090/*1094 support range; maybe a tad early to call the bulls 'diappeared over the horizon, tails between legs' but a Close today below *1094:
>>bearish config with the market loosing it's grip and falling to *1080 initially with free fall potential (+)
a Close today above *1094:
>>one possibility of a Close above *1094 would be a short 50% retrace of today's action then falling to *1080 initially with free fall potential (+)
>>another possibility of a Close above *1094 would be a second test of Jan 21 Congestion *1123 or the Jan 20 Low *1129
...regarding near term trading positions:
>>the market = positive/bullish above *1112 and the bears are dead above *1120
>>the market = trading in bear territory below *1104/*1106
...important price levels for a market top is a Close below the Feb 11 Peak *1080 and a Close below the Feb 5 Low *1056 is needed to signal a market ready to push for new Lows
...most likely is a trading range between *1060/*1123 near term with high potential to break down to test the 200-day MA *1025 minimum
Long Term: THE BEAR
Kind Regards
www.lincolnfx.com: -data point 24 February 2010
www.invetrics.com:- data point 24 February 2010
(may adjust at market Open)
www.stocktiming.com: -data point 24 February 2009-
cash -data point 22 January 2010-
Trader Update -data point 24 February 2010:
# U.S. new home sales plunged 11.2% to 306k in Jan, well below median 354k
# U.S. MBA mortgage market index fell 8.5%; purchases -7.3% and refis -8.9%
# Concerns grow over China's sale of U.S. bonds; fears for dollar carry trade future - FT
# Fed chief Ben Bernanke tells lawmakers the U.S. recovery cannot yet be considered self-sustaining.
...the SPX 500 hovers below the 50-day MA *1108 and the market still has to make a decisive move out of the deadlock one way or the other: up to *1120 (and then???) or down to *1070 (makes sense); so its too early to be definite about the up-coming move but looking at the index, a 5-month trading range almost equal on either side of *1100 smells like the market had it's top (anyway, that's what David Rosenberg thinks)
...important price levels for a market top is a Close below the Feb 11 Peak *1080 and a Close below the Feb 5 Low *1056 is needed to signal a market ready to push for new Lows
...most likely is a trading range between *1060/*1123 near term with high potential to break down to test the 200-day MA *1025 minimum
Long Term: THE BEAR
Kind Regards
www.lincolnfx.com: -data point 25 February 2010
www.invetrics.com:- data point 25 February 2010
(may adjust at market Open)
www.stocktiming.com: -data point 25 February 2009-
cash -data point 22 January 2010-
Trader Update -data point 25 February 2010:
...the SPX 500 gapped sharply lower but so far follow through action is tepid -no surprise after yesterday's institutional accumulation day-; the market trades close to the Feb 11 Peak *1080, the key level, if broken, would confirm the Feb 12 High *1112 as Top and signal deeper losses further out; a Close below the Feb 5 Low *1056 is needed to signal an imminent push for new Lows
...until *1056 is taken out, a trading range between *1060/*1112 near term is likely with high potential to break down to test the 200-day MA *1025 minimum
Long Term: THE BEAR
Kind Regards
after close of market:
...buy program manipulation catapulted the market out of a trend which should have seen the fall of the *1080 level today; the first indication of such a move was yesterday's positve A/D ratio; as a result, the SPX 500 targets are now *1128/*1139/*1154 according to classic bear market 3-wave moves: A = *1044 - *1112; B = *1112 - *1086; and C = in progress with above targets;
...caution: a sharp move down that takes out *1092 would turn the market near term bearish again, while up-targets are confirmed with a Close above the 50-day MA
Kind Regards
I'm adding shorts at these levels.... I had orders in y'day at 1107.5 because I saw a gartley would have happend at this point and then it seemed they had no hope of being triggered.... but as they say 'let the market come to you'
...thanks to the HFA-event last Thursday, the near term tone in the markets has turned more friendly towards bullish sentiment and the market seems capable of edging higher next week targeting Jan 21 Congestion *1123 (+), possibly the Jan 20 Low *1129 (+); according to sources, a flatlining market with a slight down bias could be the order for trading into Tuesday before the expected break-out;
...caution: a sharp move down that takes out *1092 would turn the market near term bearish again, while up-targets are confirmed with a Close above the 50-day MA; also stay ALERT for a possible duoble top just when the market has been lulled into bullish complacency again...
Kind Regards
www.lincolnfx.com: -data point 01 March 2010
www.invetrics.com:- data point 01 March 2010
(may adjust at market Open)
www.stocktiming.com: -data point 01 March 2009-
cash -data point 22 January 2010-
Trader Update -data point 01 March 2010:
...the SPX traded past the Feb 22 High *1112 crawling slowly higher and has come within striking distance to expected targets, the Jan 21 Congestion *1123/Jan 20 Low *1129 and at the moment consolidating the *1115 point before a possible finish near the *1120 mark;
...the strength of the advance and extremely light flows disappoint and point to a market in the process of developing a major top with the 200-day MA *1033 an initial target later in March
Long Term: THE BEAR
Kind Regards
www.lincolnfx.com: -data point 02 March 2010
www.invetrics.com:- data point 02 March 2010
(may adjust at market Open)
www.stocktiming.com: -data point 02 March 2009-
http://i46.tinypic.com/9px940.png up-condition with 5% up-target to next resistance -data point 02 March 2010-
Trader Update -data point 02 March 2010:
...the SPX continous higher with an intraday High *1123 in the Jan 21 Congestion and a Close above *1120 to day would set a constructive tone for more advancement to reach Jan 20 Low *1129 (+); however, the strength of the advance and extremely light flows disappoint and point to a market in the process of developing a major top with the 200-day MA *1033 an initial target later in March;
...furthermore, there is a huge call- option bet out on the SP 500 to close above the *1090 mark at March option expiration, which sounds like a low-risk recipie to take a short position around current levels...
Long Term: THE BEAR
Kind Regards
www.lincolnfx.com: -data point 03 March 2010
www.invetrics.com:- data point 03 March 2010
(may adjust at market Open)
www.stocktiming.com: -data point 03 March 2009-
...up-condition with 5% up-target to next resistance -data point 02 March 2010-
Trader Update -data point 03 March 2010:
...today's SPX 500 traded higher intraday *1126 past the Jan 21 Congestion *1123 and the Institutional Index Core Holdings http://i46.tinypic.com/orrzvp.jpg signals a likely up-coming test of primary support around the *1130 level; short positions around current levels likely to be profitable by option expiry 19 March 2010
Long Term: THE BEAR
Kind Regards
Advancing FX-Trading >>> www.lincolnfx.com: -data point 04 March 2010
www.invetrics.com:- data point 04 March 2010
(may adjust at market Open)
www.stocktiming.com: -data point 04 March 2009-
...up-condition with 5% up-target to next resistance -data point 02 March 2010-
Trader Update -data point 04 March 2010:
...the SPX 500 struggling to continue trading positive with up-momentum even more critical than throughout the current advance, but the slow and steady uptrend remains intact for now; consequently, further gains towards the *1130 level within the next two days are within reach as long as the short term support *1116 is not taken out
...trading below *1116 will rapidly increase the potential of the up-bias reversing with the Feb 25 Low *1086 as the confirming negative pivot point for further accelaerated losses towards the 200-day MA *1035 (+)
...as a short term risk trade, short positions around current levels likely to be profitable by option expiry 19 March 2010 with a 300 m call bet on the SPX 500 Cash to trade above the *1090 level by end of March 2010
Long Term: THE BEAR
Kind Regards
Advancing FX-Trading >>> www.lincolnfx.com: -data point 05 March 2010
www.invetrics.com:- data point 05 March 2010
(may adjust at market Open)
www.stocktiming.com: -data point 05 March 2009-
...up-condition with 5% up-target to next resistance -data point 02 March 2010-
Trader Update -data point 05 March 2010:
...the SPX 500 surged higher into the *1130 level taking out the Jan 20 Low *1129 resistance with ease following the jobs data; despite low volume, further gains are likely and the market is in for a challenge of the Jan 21 High *1142 with scope to reach the Jan 11 Peak *1151; as a matter of fact, a new recovery High *1190 could be on the menue
...a drop below March 3 Low *1116 would indicate bearish sentiment returning
...as a short term risk trade, short positions around current levels likely to be profitable by option expiry 19 March 2010 with a 300 m call bet on the SPX 500 Cash to trade above the *1090 level by end of March 2010
Long Term: THE BEAR
Kind Regards
Advancing FX-Trading >>> www.lincolnfx.com: -data point 08 March 2010
www.invetrics.com:- data point 08 March 2010
(may adjust at market Open)
www.stocktiming.com: -data point 08 March 2009-
...up-condition -data point 02 March 2010-
Trader Update -data point 08 March 2010:
...the SPX 500 opened slightly firmer with a session High *1141 but trading is sluggish around this level leaving room for a mild correction to affirm the Mar 5 Low *1123 early in the week; based on the bullish sentiment dominating the current markets, another leg higher would target the Jan 11 Peak *1151 or possibly Oct-Jan trendline resistance *1178 following the correction from currently overbought levels
...a drop below March 3 Low *1116 would indicate bearish sentiment returning
Long Term: THE BEAR
Kind Regards
Advancing FX-Trading >>> www.lincolnfx.com: -data point 09 March 2010
www.invetrics.com:- data point 09 March 2010
(may adjust at market Open)
www.stocktiming.com: -data point 09 March 2009-
...up-condition -data point 02 March 2010-
Trader Update -data point 09 March 2010:
...the SPX 500 respected the daily support level *1133 pre-open and traded higher to *1145 so far, again at the lowest volume levels for the current advance; up-tick momentum remains sluggish at extremely near term overbought levels and market breadth features just positive
...as a result, it is unlikely that the market has enough strength near term to surge to new highs in any suatainable way without working off thses extreme levels in a corrective shake-out that would see the Mar 3 High *1125 or March 3 Low *1117 affirmed
...following a successful defense in these levels, the target following the Jan 11 Peak *1151 would be the yearly trendline resistance currently *1172 with potential to reach out to a yearly upper channel resistance *1246
...a drop below March 3 Low *1116 would indicate bearish sentiment returning
Long Term: THE BEAR
Kind Regards
those Americans sure know how to buy stuff.... do you think they can pay up? ;+)
...the market is extremely Extended, which is of course no guarantee that it will tank tomorrow -still over a week to next Friday's option expiration- but if an extended market tanks, it's always most dramatic and too late for anyone net long in there
...I am very sure, they (insiders) would love to keep the Call Option Premium, they sold for March expiration..............and a market ready for tanking???? ......and the SPX 500 target *1200 will not be harmed with a drop to the *1095/*1085 area!!!!
Kind Regards
Advancing FX-Trading >>> www.lincolnfx.com: -data point 10 March 2010
www.invetrics.com:- data point 10 March 2010
(may adjust at market Open)
www.stocktiming.com: -data point 10 March 2009-
...up-condition -data point 02 March 2010-
Trader Update -data point 10 March 2010:
...volume spiking in yesterday's outside day sell-off; today, once again, the SPX 500 slowly creeping upward towards the *1151 mark on low volume but an imminent sell-off to affirm the March 3 Low *1117 near term still cannot be ruled out
...a drop below March 3 Low *1116 would indicate bearish sentiment returning
Long Term: THE BEAR
Kind Regards
Advancing FX-Trading >>> www.lincolnfx.com: -data point 11 March 2010
www.invetrics.com:- data point 11 March 2010
(may adjust at market Open)
www.stocktiming.com: -data point 11 March 2009-
...up-condition -data point 02 March 2010-
Trader Update -data point 11 March 2010:
...the SPX 500 respected the daily support *1138 and continues to consolidate below the Jan 11 Peak *1151 ready for another advance to challenge near term upper resistance channel current *1156 with potential to reach out to yearly trendline resistance current *1174 before a possible bearish reversal would test the *1117 pivot point to work off an extremely extended market
...a drop below March 3 Low *1116 would indicate bearish sentiment returning
Long Term: THE BEAR
.
I mentioned on the 4th “potential building for printing an Evening Star, although still 18 hours before candle end a more confirmation needed to be totally sure that a top is in.”
The Evening Star pattern did not complete as you can see in the diagram below - invalidating the Purple Trace. It always pays to wait for the completion of any candle pattern before considering a position. As you see once the candle closed it gave a completely different (bullish) picture with also an Ichimoku buy signal appearing – all 3 elements confirming (yellow spots).
http://i43.tinypic.com/nn5g1s.gif
Advancing FX-Trading >>> www.lincolnfx.com: -data point 12 March 2010
www.invetrics.com:- data point 12 March 2010
(may adjust at market Open)
www.stocktiming.com: -data point 12 March 2009-
...up-condition with duress warning (overbought) -data point 02 March 2010-
Trader Update -data point 12 March 2010:
...the SPX 500 started trading with a new 17-month High *1153 followed by profit taking, later recovering to another High *1156 followed by more profit taking; institutional index core holdings http://i44.tinypic.com/4jxp9g.jpg right under the primary support line and the NYSE algorithm http://i43.tinypic.com/16a66mo.jpg features extremely overbought; furthermore, market breadth still positive but extremely low volume puts a more bearish stamp on it as it is more likely that institutions were sellers in today's market
...time to take some profit possibly down to *1117 before the next advance (keep in mind the option trade for upcoming option expiry Friday March 19)
...March 3 *1117 is the SPX 500 pivot point
Long Term: THE BEAR
Kind Regards
Hi Ananda. Yes, somewhere around the yellow box above the recent action may be an area to consider for reversal
...found this analysis on the net recently:
" since March 2009 this market (the SPX 500) has never done what it has always done in the past 60 years;
the market is now 51 weeks at all time historic overbought with no indication stocks above the 200 day moving average will ever again drop to normal oversold; the market sure looks like in a parabolic blow-off toward SPX 500 *2000/*3000;
if March down cycle projected High *1107 is not taken out this month, odds are, the parabolic blow off pattern is in play = no correction more than 23% since March 2009 Low -one 38% correction followed by the final blow off straight up to the exhaustion top and usually advance more than 100% to as much as 250%
the bad news is, a parabolic blow off only happens at the very end of a society "
...the current path: sell-off 38% to as far as March 09 Low funny number *666 from anywhere at any time now (the dive depending on the starting number of the sell-off) then straight up to the SPX 500 *2000/*3000 level
---funds are down to an average 3.6 % cash level
---complacency/bullish sentiment on FULL LULL/BLOWN UP
---insiders getting more and more desperate to sell a fundamentally ****ed-up story
---where's the cash for another substantial advance going to come from (guess not from the MAMMAS and PAPAS)
Kind Regards
Advancing FX-Trading >>> www.lincolnfx.com: -data point 15 March 2010
www.invetrics.com:- data point 15 March 2010
(may adjust at market Open)
www.stocktiming.com: -data point 15 March 2009-
...up-condition with duress warning (overbought) -data point 02 March 2010-
Trader Update -data point 15 March 2010:
...while the NYSE algorithm moved to extreme oversold, institutions sold the rallies last Friday as expected http://i40.tinypic.com/rgxxz6.jpg setting the tone for today's decline; the SPX 500 trades slightly lower today after Firday's new 17-month High *1153 but until the FOMC meeting is over, the market could remain in consolidation around current levels; one fact however strikes in regards to market internals: a slight increase in the number of new lows
...as a consquence, the market could still be set for another drive higher into the upper short term resistance current *1165 following a positive Fed announcement -exeptional low/extended period- but this drive higher could be abruptlly stopped by a classic 'sell the fact' move out of the extremely overbought levels to affirm the Mar 3 Low *1117 (-)
...March 3 *1117 remains the SPX 500 pivot point
Long Term: THE BEAR
Kind Regards
Advancing FX-Trading >>> www.lincolnfx.com: -data point 16 March 2010
www.invetrics.com:- data point 16 March 2010
(may adjust at market Open)
www.stocktiming.com: -data point 16 March 2009-
...up-condition with duress warning (overbought) -data point 02 March 2010-
Trader Update -data point 16 March 2010:
...the SPX 500 traded to a new 17-month High *1158 but selling has become apparent after the Fed announcement and the rally is likely to be unsustainable; a bearish reversal would target the the Mar 3 Low *1117 initially
...expecting a successful *1117 defense, another SPX 500 advance would take out today's High *1158 and surge higher towards yearly trendline resistance current *1175 before a potential deeper correction would occur
*1117 remains the SPX 500 pivot point
Long Term: THE BEAR
Kind Regards
Advancing FX-Trading >>> www.lincolnfx.com: -data point 16 March 2010
www.invetrics.com:- data point 16 March 2010
(may adjust at market Open)
www.stocktiming.com: -data point 16 March 2009-
...up-condition with duress warning (overbought) -data point 02 March 2010-
Trader Update -data point 16 March 2010:
...the SPX 500 traded to a new 17-month High *1158 but selling has become apparent after the Fed announcement and the rally is likely to be unsustainable; a bearish reversal would target the the Mar 3 Low *1117 initially
...expecting a successful *1117 defense, another SPX 500 advance would take out today's High *1158 and surge higher towards yearly trendline resistance current *1175 before a potential deeper correction would occur
*1117 remains the SPX 500 pivot point
after market Close: the SPX 500 broke out of a 5-month sideways trading range (+/- 50 either side of *1100) and could surge now higher into yearly trendline resistance current *1175 (+);
BE AWARE: Market Tops happen in overbought territory and this market is now extremely extended
Long Term: THE BEAR
Kind Regards
Advancing FX-Trading >>> www.lincolnfx.com: -data point 17 March 2010
www.invetrics.com:- data point 17 March 2010
(may adjust at market Open)
www.stocktiming.com: -data point 17 March 2009-
...up-condition with duress warning (overbought) -data point 02 March 2010-
Trader Update -data point 17 March 2010:
...the SPX 500 traded to a new intraday 17-month High *1170 with broad market support and a Close above *1165 would bode well for an intermediate SPX 500 target in the *1200 area; in the near term however, the *1171/*1175 range needs to be penetrated initially;
...ithe market is extremely extended; the put/call ratio http://i42.tinypic.com/2945bgj.jpg stood at 0.54 yesterday and the %SPX 500-stocks above the 50-day MA http://i39.tinypic.com/161hwko.jpg stood above 85%, making a long call on the market a high risk affair
BE AWARE: this market is now extremely extended
*1117 remains the SPX 500 pivot point
Long Term: THE BEAR
Kind Regards
Advancing FX-Trading >>> www.lincolnfx.com: -data point 18 March 2010
www.invetrics.com:- data point 18 March 2010
(may adjust at market Open)
www.stocktiming.com: -data point 18 March 2009-
...Institutional Core Holding http://i43.tinypic.com/1zcn8f6.jpg -The Institutional Index is now +0.27% above its "double top" resistance.
Trader Update -data point 18 March 2010:
...so far, the SPX 500 has been unable to trade above yesterday's new 17-month High *1170 and is moderately lower today downticking in a trickle; the 12 March Congestion *1157/*1160 is today's support and likely to hold into 19 March option expiration with a potential to challenge yearly trendline resistance current *1176 tomorrow;
-the put/call ratio http://i44.tinypic.com/a3ff3c.jpg stood at 0.52 yesterday
-the %SPX 500-stocks above the 50-day MA http://i40.tinypic.com/29wuxcx.jpg stood above 88%, making a long call on the market a high risk affair
-selling is slightly above buying on higher down volume
-institutional buying has weakened over a weekly period while selling spiked higher on Monday
-inflowing liquidity has been very positive but it's not institutions buying this market
BE AWARE: this market is now extremely extended
*1117 remains the SPX 500 pivot point
Long Term: THE BEAR
Kind Regards
-the equities olny p/c-ratio *0.51
-the %SPX 500 stocks above the 50-day MA *89 %
...the SPX 500 staled beneath the 17-month High set Wed *1170 this morning and plunged to intraday 12 March Congestion support *1157 before stabilizing temporarily so far; penetration of *1157 should trigger follow-through action down to March 3 Low *1117 pivot
...a successful *1117 defense would clear the extremely overbought condition and motivate the market to surge higher towards yearly trendline resistance current *1176 (+)
Long Term: THE BEAR
Kind Regards
Action arrived at yellow box for circa 20 points which is equivalent to $5000 on one full contract, or $1000 profit on one e-mini contract
http://i43.tinypic.com/6fo28z.gif
...the SPX 500 penetrated support *1157 Intraday down to *1155 and closed at intraday Congestion *1160 - the SPX 500 Hedge shows a tentative top down to trendline support *1120 (daily)/*1130 (weekly):
http://i42.tinypic.com/vcuvc5.jpg...volume increase
http://i43.tinypic.com/30wugsg.jpg...institutional selling !caution!
http://i44.tinypic.com/2sb7j7m.jpg...NYSE algorithm rolling over
http://i44.tinypic.com/29dkahz.jpg...equity only p/c-ration 0.51
http://i43.tinypic.com/9zyagw.jpg...%SPX 500 stocks above 50-day MA = 89% Thursday
Kind Regards
Advancing FX-Trading >>> www.lincolnfx.com: -data point 22 March 2010
www.invetrics.com:- data point 22 March 2010
(may adjust at market Open)
www.stocktiming.com: -data point 22 March 2009-
...Institutional Core Holding http://i43.tinypic.com/2vwcp4o.jpg...testing primary support
Trader Update -data point 22 March 2010:
...the SPX 500 tested Break-Out support *1151 successfully establishing intraday Low *1153 as a near term floor; as a result, the index continues its bullish path and any bearish action needs to take out the *1153 on a Close basis
...the next bullish near term targets:
-intermediate trendline resistance *1177
-near term upper channel resistance in the current *1183/*1187 range
-longer term upper channel resistance current *1217/*1255
...institutional selling http://i42.tinypic.com/6e2ph5.jpg spiked Friday, the NYSE algorithm http://i39.tinypic.com/8y5k5x.jpg rolled; as a result -SELL-STOP PROTECTION and NO LONG POSITION as long as primary support in the institutional core index http://i43.tinypic.com/2vwcp4o.jpg remains unsupported...
...checking internals, as mentioned earlier, the number of new lows creeping up stealthily
*1117 remains the SPX 500 pivot point
Long Term: THE BEAR
Kind Regards
Advancing FX-Trading >>> www.lincolnfx.com: -data point 23 March 2010
www.invetrics.com:- data point 23 March 2010
(may adjust at market Open)
www.stocktiming.com: -data point 23 March 2009-
...Institutional Core Holding .http://i43.tinypic.com/2mzmd06.jpg..back at resistance line/testing primary support
Trader Update -data point 23 March 2010:
...the SPX 500 appears to consolidate between intraday Low *1164 and intraday High *1170 so far in balanced trading; the institutional index moved back to the primary resistance line, institutional selling http://i41.tinypic.com/1d9w5.jpg still quite elevated and the NYSE algorithm http://i39.tinypic.com/w0e50.jpg in positive territory but rolling over; the index appears to remain set on its bullish path, but the market could go for another test of *1153 support before the break-out, if successful
...the next bullish near term targets:
-intermediate trendline resistance *1177
-near term upper channel resistance in the current *1183/*1187 range
-longer term upper channel resistance current *1217/*1255
as a result -SELL-STOP PROTECTION and NO LONG POSITION as long as primary support in the institutional core index remains unsupported...
*1117 remains the SPX 500 pivot point
Long Term: THE BEAR
Kind Regards
Advancing FX-Trading >>> www.lincolnfx.com: -data point 24 March 2010
www.invetrics.com:- data point 24 March 2010
(may adjust at market Open)
www.stocktiming.com: -data point 24 March 2009-
...Institutional Core Holding http://i43.tinypic.com/2ivbuwj.jpg...above resistance line/testing primary support
Trader Update -data point 24 March 2010:
...the SPX 500 trades moderately lower from yesterday's 19-mth High *1175 and appears to form an inside day signalling trend uncertainty;
-institutions still testing their primary support on the Core Index
-institutional selling http://i44.tinypic.com/29ff34o.jpg...moderately lower but still within a selling trend most likely with an uptick after today
-NYSE algorithm http://i40.tinypic.com/bildhw.jpg...positive but rolling over
-market breadth 1:2 neg -new highs increasing -uptick buying power positive -buying the dips appears ongoing
...todays drive lower appears corrective with potential for another test of March 22 Low *1153 developing; if so, an expected successful defense of *1153 would set the index up for another advance towards the yearly trendline resistance current *1177/higher into the short term upper channel resistance current *1185;
...longer term bullish targets:
-longer term upper channel resistance current *1217/*1255
...in the near term, a possible trade would be into the direction of how today's inside day will be resolved; any trading action below yearly weekly channel support *1138 would be an invitation for the bears to party;
Long Term: THE BEAR
Kind Regards
www.invetrics.com:- data point 25 March 2010
(may adjust at market Open)
www.stocktiming.com: -data point 25 March 2009-
...Institutional Core Holding http://i42.tinypic.com/34g3mvs.jpg...moving further above resistance line/testing primary support
Trader Update -data point 25 March 2010:
...yesterdays inside day resolved to the upside and the SPX 500 traded to a new 20-mth High *1181 into the current yearly trendline resistance (weekly) as expected; immediate selling into the new High neutralized some of todays gains, but as long as the index stays above March 22 Low *1153, the market will slowly grind the index higher into the short term upper channel resistance current *1193/higher into longer term upper channel resistance current *1217/*1255
-institutions still testing their primary support on the Core Index
-institutional selling http://i41.tinypic.com/25rzbyc.jpg...upticked yesterday and will likely to stay in the uptrend after today
-NYSE algorithm http://i42.tinypic.com/33nb602.jpg...positive and appears ready to signal another advance
-market breadth close to 2:1 positive -new highs increasing -uptick buying power positive -buying the dips appears ongoing
...any trading action below yearly weekly channel support *1138 would be an invitation for the bears to party;
Long Term: THE BEAR
Kind Regards
www.invetrics.com:- data point 26 March 2010
(may adjust at market Open)
www.stocktiming.com: -data point 26 March 2009-
...Institutional Core Holding http://i40.tinypic.com/11s1ok8.jpg...moving below resistance line/testing primary support
Trader Update -data point 25 March 2010:
...yesterdays inside day resolved into an outside day after the index collapsed into the Close; the NYSE algorithm http://i44.tinypic.com/2ykdjtd.jpg is in positive territory moving down; 10-year treasury yield http://i43.tinypic.com/20kuknq.jpg spiked to 3.85% with further upside potential likely and while not at a critical level like above 4%, institutions becoming nervous holding stocks for dividend in a higher yield environment; institutional selling http://i42.tinypic.com/2e3n4p0.jpg remained in the uptrend with another uptick yesterday
...given the impulsive nature of yesterdays sell-off, a corrective drive down to short term lower support channel current *1153/lower to intermediate lower channel support current *1142 are likely before the market will slowly grind the index higher into the short term upper channel resistance current *1193/higher into longer term upper channel resistance current *1217/*1255
...looking further ahead, if the *1193/*1217/*1255 range coincides with 10-year treasury yields rising to 4% (+), the market will have most likley reached a top from which a deeper potential 20%/38% correction will look like a real deal
...in the meantime, any trading action below yearly weekly channel support *1138 would be an invitation for the bears to party earlier on
Long Term: THE BEAR
Kind Regards
...today, as far as markets are concerned, I am content to take the short risk... amidst bullish sentiment based on a lot of bull**** and grizzly bears turned into gummi bears, and I do agree with David Rosenberg at times like today:
Divid Rosenberg: Looking at the fund flows, there is only one conclusion that can be reached: This market is being driven by pig farmers (program trades. ed.). Retail inflows may have picked up of late, but only fractionally. The focus on the part of the individual investor remains on the fixed-income market, for better or for worse (better from our standpoint, worse from the standpoint of my friend and fellow debater Jim Grant).
Institutional portfolio manager cash ratios are back to the rock bottom levels of around 3½% — where they were back at the market peak in October 2007. The shorts have all but been covered. Foreign investors have been few and far between, based on the latest TICS data. The lack of volume speaks volumes — there are no sellers. Investors of all types have been content to just sit and watch their equity position expand via the price appreciation, but there is scant evidence of any follow-through this year in terms of volume buying.
So, that leaves me with a suspicion that the entities doing the buying are the pig farmers. Who are they pray tell? They are the prop desks at the five large banks. They buy and sell securities, with leverage ... to each other! And, these transactions often occur late in the day or in the futures pit after the market closes. There is no sign of any other buyer out there, including the Fed who has been too busy choking on mortgage backed securities and Maiden Lane assets. To repeat, that is why the volumes have been so low.
What we should be aware of about the pig farmers is that they could, at any time, flick the switch in the other direction. What the “trapped longs” may be forced to do — the ones that have been sitting on their hands and have been waiting for the bear market rally to take their portfolio back to where it was at the peaks — at that point is start to sell. That is when the volume picks up ... and accelerates the downside pressure.
Kind Regards
David Rosenburg is a super permabear. I can understand his frustration at the moment..we are a cyclic bull market and he is upset. The same happened in 2006 with him when economic theory did not match stockmarket behaviour...I thought he may have learn't something from that as he is a super intelligent guy and Chief economist and strategist but I guess a leopard (bear) can't change his spots...
Oh well... like they say ...Every dog (bear) has their day. Maybe it will be tomorrow;)
Permabears are bound to get it right, sooner or later - a bit like the stopped clock that shows the right time twice a day!
There are, of course, times when we all really should "beware the Bear". For me, it's when the plot is red. That way, I get to enjoy the good times!
http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/t...usPB/SP330.gif
Thanks for the update- Good to see the MSI sitting solidly on 1! :)
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Treasu...&asset=&ccode=
C overhang ... I'm a little supprised that treasury doesn't hold for a bit longer -YEAH RIGHT...so to speak
...basically the question Rosenberg raises here is 'what factors will determine program trade to change course' and he thinks that
-10-year treasury yields above 4% takes the usual institutional buyers out of the equation
-institutional cash just above 3 % another reason institutions are unlikely buyers
-at some stage the program trade needs to off-load their accumulated expensive junk as volume margin discounts are a bit boring in the longer term
-furthermore 20 billion dollars of net speculative S&P large contracts showed up on last week's COT report (probably nothing to it and something to do with government selling 'C')??
...therefore on one hand the program trade needs sellers >>unlikely if they keep propping the market very low volume figures); on the other hand they need buyers and lots of them; so unless they somehow manage to convince JOE to enter the market -unlikley as JOE has stayed out all the up to here and most likely does not want to jump now- everyone should be happy if a nice correction takes us all into richer waters
...so basically, JOE is needed to finish the cyclical bull in classic 3-wave style -insiders -institutions -public but unless we have a decent enough correction down etc, etc, etc
Kind Regards
Hi Phaedrus,
Just a quick thought on your MSI. Have you done any research on the time that indicator stays at 100%? Looking at it, it looks like there is a reasonable pattern but it may just be an illusion. If you knew the indicator had a run of 100% for 72 days for instance and this was the longest it had run for, well any fractal points of that detail might make for points of interest in the future.
Cheers,
Shane.
www.invetrics.com:- data point 30 March 2010
(may adjust at market Open)
www.stocktiming.com: -data point 30 March 2009-
...Institutional Core Holding http://i43.tinypic.com/azcvbq.jpg...closing below resistance line/testing primary support
Trader Update -data point 30 March 2010:
...the SPX 500 in consolidating mode below the March 25 20-month High *1181 and since the index has had plenty off opportunity to sell down to affirm the *1151/*1142 level and did not, chances are, the market will challenge the *11187/*11201 range leading into Fridays payroll anouncement
...if so, risk lingers for a 'good news' sell the fact Friday or sometime after due to short term extended index condition before resuming a bullish bias with the *1219/*1256 targets in view
-US 10-year T-note: http://i42.tinypic.com/jjwy7b.jpg
-Institutional selling: http://i44.tinypic.com/2j4ylac.jpg
Long Term: THE BEAR
Kind Regards
No Shane, I haven't. My reasoning is that I'm really not very interested in when, where or for how long the MSI sits at its maximum (or minimum) levels. To know that the market is strong (or weak) is enough for me - exactly how strong or weak is of minor interest, so long as the MSI is clearly positive (or negative). It is at times when the MSI looks to be on the verge of changing from bullish to bearish (or vice-versa) that it gets my full attention.
I have done a lot of backtesting though, on the basis of which I optimised the points at which light green and dark green cut in, raising them both by 0.1. You can see the slight difference between this MSI plot and the one on page 19 (#277). This very minor tweak improved the hit rate, reduced the number of "false positive" light green "buy" signals and increased overall returns. As you would expect, you get an even better hit rate and even fewer "false positives" by waiting for the dark green before "buying", but this improvement in accuracy comes at the cost of markedly lower overall returns.
You can't get something for nothing.
www.invetrics.com:- data point 31 March 2010
(may adjust at market Open)
www.stocktiming.com: -data point 31 March 2009-
...Institutional Core Holding http://i43.tinypic.com/azcvbq.jpg...closing below resistance line/testing primary support
Trader Update -data point 31 March 2010:
...after the factory orders, the SPX 500 recoverd quickly from the early sell-off following the ADP report and appears back in consolidating mode below the March 25 20-month High *1181; chances are, the market will challenge the *11187/*11201 range late this week
Long Term: THE BEAR
Kind Regards
www.invetrics.com:- data point 5 April 2010
(may adjust at market Open)
www.stocktiming.com: -data point 5 April 2009-
...Institutional Core Holding http://i39.tinypic.com/33xhisi.jpg...closing below resistance line/testing primary support on Thursday
Trader Update -data point 5 April 2010:
...the SPX 500 leaving the March 25 High *1181 behind based on firm support and the index appears on its way for the *1200-test near term;
-institutional selling http://i39.tinypic.com/25i3ksj.jpg appears to fade away for now
-10 year treasury note just a tick belwo 4%
-equity only p/c ration a very low 0.54
-more than 91% SPX 500 stocks trade above the 50-day MA
Long Term: THE BEAR
Kind Regards
New 18 month high.......
http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/t...PB/SP50046.gif
Appreciate the updates Phaedrus
Hi Belgarion...and just as you thought to be safe...have to say personally was not in the Phaedrus camp (just do not get it what's so funny about this indicator -any old lagger will do) since the Russell 2000 April 6 High *702.9 (701.5 exact), but its far too early to call in a trend reversal, rather -best guess and positioned accordingly-
-SPX 500 long in the *1149/1152 range or
-Russell 2000 short in the *712/*733 range
with anything in between uninterestingly nowhere
...since I have three serious comittments, its becoming very difficult to update in the morning without missing breakfast
Kind Regards
and Long Term: THE BEAR (regardless)
Thank You, Beacon
...the leading Russell 2000 index *701/*703 range offered a clear and low risk 'shorting opportunity' which is still in play; however, other major US indexes are still lagging behind and still have a way to trend up before their major potential turning point;
...watch out for the major indexes to arrive at their potentially major turning points IN SYNC
Kind Regards
www.invetrics.com:- data point 9 April 2010
(may adjust at market Open)
www.stocktiming.com: -data point 9 April 2009-
...Institutional Core Holding http://i39.tinypic.com/keg9l3.jpg...still testing primary support/hesitant for a decisive move
Trader Update -data point 9 April 2010:
...the SPX 500 established a new 18-month High *1192 with no follow through action at present; institutional selling http://i40.tinypic.com/m8z4f8.jpg ticking up slightly and market internals indicating a mixed market
... as a result there is risk for a shallow pullback to affirm the early August *1175/*1184 Congestion once more early next week before targeting higher into channel resistance ranging in the *1205/*1226/(ultimately *1266) area
Long Term: THE BEAR
Kind Regards
The Coming European Debt Wars
EU Countries sinking into Depression
by Prof. Michael Hudson http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.p...t=va&aid=18545
VIDEO: William Engdahl: Covert Economic Warfare: "The Gods of Money"
US Will Not Recover for at Least 15 Years
by F. William Engdahl http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.p...t=va&aid=18534
Kind Regards