OK, newbie question: Why trade 100 ppp shares @ 0.25? To give the appearance of a big lift and stimulate demand in people who didn't notice?
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OK, newbie question: Why trade 100 ppp shares @ 0.25? To give the appearance of a big lift and stimulate demand in people who didn't notice?
Probably - but pulled a few sellers out of the workwork.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Paddy
OK, newbie question: Why trade 100 ppp shares @ 0.25? To give the appearance of a big lift and stimulate demand in people who didn't notice?
My guess is that this was an off-market transaction and that $25.00 was just a nice round number to put on the form. I would expect anyone clever enough to be manipulating the market would be a little more cunning :DQuote:
quote:Originally posted by Paddy
OK, newbie question: Why trade 100 ppp shares @ 0.25? To give the appearance of a big lift and stimulate demand in people who didn't notice?
A few funny things happen from time to time - Like why would anyone pay $1.50 to convert an NZOOD to an NZO when they could have bought an NZO for less than $1.00 at the time (yes this really happened). I suspect this sort of thing happens mostly when estates are being settled.
Why would an off market transaction be recorded on the market?Quote:
quote:Originally posted by J R Ewing
My guess is that this was an off-market transaction and that $25.00 was just a nice round number to put on the form. I would expect anyone clever enough to be manipulating the market would be a little more cunning :DQuote:
quote:Originally posted by Paddy
OK, newbie question: Why trade 100 ppp shares @ 0.25? To give the appearance of a big lift and stimulate demand in people who didn't notice?
A few funny things happen from time to time - Like why would anyone pay $1.50 to convert an NZOOD to an NZO when they could have bought an NZO for less than $1.00 at the time (yes this really happened). I suspect this sort of thing happens mostly when estates are being settled.
You don't have to put an amount (consideration) on the form anymore.
Maybe they did it to win a sharetrading competition :D
Or kill off some oldie diehard holders...
The sudden increase in market value of my portfolio sure caused a heart flutter for a short time...:D:D
edit: perhaps a better question might be "why would anyone be selling PPP at all with drill program so close"?
Cheers JK
Very true...Quote:
quote:Originally posted by JoeKing
edit: perhaps a better question might be "why would anyone be selling PPP at all with drill program so close"?
Cheers JK
To take a profit. :DQuote:
quote:Originally posted by JoeKing
Or kill off some oldie diehard holders...
The sudden increase in market value of my portfolio sure caused a heart flutter for a short time...:D:D
edit: perhaps a better question might be "why would anyone be selling PPP at all with drill program so close"?
Cheers JK
Perhaps we should agree to sell 100 shares at $10.00 each and see if the banks will let us use the rest of our shares as security on some large loans :D[}:)]:D
Check PPP depth.......
sellers = 0
bids = 0
AND I'M SITTING ON ALL OF MINE :D:D:D:D:D
And so you should.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by JoeKing
Check PPP depth.......
sellers = 0
bids = 0
AND I'M SITTING ON ALL OF MINE :D:D:D:D:D
The pending off-market takeover of Volant will bring some more cash into PPP's kitty, and it looks that shortly after Tieke spud Bricklanding will be drilled. While Bricklanding POS may be lower than Tieke, it is potentially quite large [8D]
Options currently selling for 8.8 cents each. Exercise price is $A 15 or $NZ 17.3 at the current exchange rate. For options to be in the money the share price needs to be 26 cents. If exchange rate fell back to 0.80 price would then need to be $NZ 27.5 CENTS Could well be that by June 2007. What do others think?
Discl: Hold PPP options
Just bought some more.... :-)
Kev
35 cents for the heads somewhere between now and 30/6/07 is my guess. What the s/p is at 30/6 I haven't a clue.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Taijon
Options currently selling for 8.8 cents each. Exercise price is $A 15 or $NZ 17.3 at the current exchange rate. For options to be in the money the share price needs to be 26 cents. If exchange rate fell back to 0.80 price would then need to be $NZ 27.5 CENTS Could well be that by June 2007. What do others think?
Discl: Hold PPP options
Looks like OP will not be lingering too long at Cutter, so could be spudding Tieke within a week maybe?
IF! Tieke/Taranui proves up and added Tui, AND Hector fits into OP timetable AND Bricklanding is half successful, PPP SP could well be pushing $1 imo.I C there are some more hopeful buyers this morning.
Cheers all holders
JK
She's going...
Yep, cutter 1 a failure and rig getting ready for move to Tieke 1
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/2006110...h15r2x3ldl.pdf
Kev
The PPP quarterly last week still said "A decision on whether Tieke can be drilled at this time is expected to be made in mid to late November 2006" but from the above AWE annoucement (they are TUI operator) it looks like the decision has been made.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Sharp737
She's going...
Yep, cutter 1 a failure and rig getting ready for move to Tieke 1
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/2006110...h15r2x3ldl.pdf
Kev
PPP up 4 today to 25 cents.Looks like a few are loading up prior to Tieke.
And the Tui development. Just a matter of time before it is blasted across the TV and newspapers...."NEW OFFSHORE OIL DEVELOPMENT STARTS...."
Could the timing of this(if a move on ppp is in the wind ) be anything to do with imminent government moves to thwart takeovers that avoid the 90% shareholder acceptance rule.
Can you elaborate on this - for the sake of those that are not up to speed on these moves :)Quote:
quote:Originally posted by milker
Could the timing of this(if a move on ppp is in the wind ) be anything to do with imminent government moves to thwart takeovers that avoid the 90% shareholder acceptance rule.
nzo has blocking 10% holding of ppp. Recent moves by aus companies on nz targets have only had to target 75% by schemes of arrangement under nz companies act. Such loopholes are shortly to be blocked.
Thanks for that - I was aware of NZO's 10.1% holding but not the current loophole. No doubt TR will be pleased to see that loophole closed of in due course :DQuote:
quote:Originally posted by milker
nzo has blocking 10% holding of ppp. Recent moves by aus companies on nz targets have only had to target 75% by schemes of arrangement under nz companies act. Such loopholes are shortly to be blocked.
PPP is essentially an Australian company, so is unlikely to be asignificantly affected by any legistative changes here.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by milker
Could the timing of this(if a move on ppp is in the wind ) be anything to do with imminent government moves to thwart takeovers that avoid the 90% shareholder acceptance rule.
PPP closed last night on ASX at 20c (=23c NZ), so it should be no surprise for it to lift to around that level today.
AWE's Cutter 1 well now being plugged and abandoned.
New stop would be Tieke 1 I would say :-)
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/2006110...p5wkr5j2ln.pdf
You little beauty!
thanks unicorn for trampling on a perfectly good conspiracy theeory
JV to drill Tieke 1 once rig arrives in about 5 days!
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/2006111...xds79qs70l.pdf
Shares rising...
Oh Goodie :-)
Kev
Roll on Hector.
14% near the kitchen lovely
The Ocean Patriot will also drill the high potential Hector structure in
PEP38483 and then the Taranui prospect also within PMP38158 to finsh the six
month drilling campaign.
PPP's drilling programme
Well Name PPP share Potential
Reserves Timing
Tieke-1 10% 15 m bbls Q4,2006
Tui development 1-4 10% Q4, 2006 to Q2, 2007
Hector-1 14.1% >50-60 m bbls Q2,2007
Taranui-1 10.0% 5-15 m bbls Q1/Q2, 2007
I love the leverage of this one. Go u good thing [8D]Quote:
quote:Originally posted by kittydashwood
Roll on Hector.
14% near the kitchen lovely
The Ocean Patriot will also drill the high potential Hector structure in
PEP38483 and then the Taranui prospect also within PMP38158 to finsh the six
month drilling campaign.
PPP's drilling programme
Well Name PPP share Potential
Reserves Timing
Tieke-1 10% 15 m bbls Q4,2006
Tui development 1-4 10% Q4, 2006 to Q2, 2007
Hector-1 14.1% >50-60 m bbls Q2,2007
Taranui-1 10.0% 5-15 m bbls Q1/Q2, 2007
With recent appreciation in the sp then ppp now capitised at nz$100m.
This places them higher than at least one other company in the top 50 index.
In due course would that maybe entitle ppp to become a member of the top 50 index, bearing in mind majority of holding is on the asx and not nzx.
M
Starting to turn up in the media.....probably get some TV of it going through the Cook Strait soon.
Oil drilling due to start off Taranaki coast
Tuesday November 14, 2006
The largest ever continuous drilling programme will start soon off the Taranaki coast, say New Zealand Oil & Gas and Pan Pacific Petroleum.
They say the Ocean Patriot drilling rig is under tow from the Canterbury Basin and it will take about five days to move it up the east coast of the South Island and through the Cook Strait to the Taranaki Basin.
"It's an exciting time for the company and for the industry with the start of this, the largest continuous offshore drilling programme ever undertaken in New Zealand," NZOG executive chairman Tony Radford said.
Drilling of Tieke-1, which has a potential recoverable volume of 15 million barrels, is expected to start late next week.
Tieke-1 is located in the Tui petroleum permit PMP 38158 and lies 40km offshore and about 8km from the Tui oilfield. The well will be drilled to 3600m in a water depth of 122m, which is expected to take 18 days.
Exploration in the Taranaki Basin by NZOG and its joint venture partners has resulted in three commercial discoveries from only five exploration wells in the past four years.
These discoveries - Tui, Amokura and Pateke - are currently being developed as part of the Tui area oil development within PMP 38158.
The development drilling for this project, consisting of four horizontal development wells, will start immediately after Tieke-1.
The Ocean Patriot will also drill the Hector structure and then the Taranui prospect to finish the six-month-long drilling campaign.
Pan Pacific Petroleum and NZOG are participants in Tieke-1 and PMP 38158. Others are AWE New Zealand, New Zealand Overseas Petroleum, and Mitsui E & P New Zealand.
NZOG shares closed up 1c at $1.03 yesterday.
- NZPA
This article is less optimistic
"Gas exploration drilling begins" instead of oil
http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3859760a13,00.html
Very poor heading by stuff.co.nz
Nevermind, all will be revealed :-)
TAP has finished the drilling of South Gibson and the Ensco67 is now on its way to Bricklanding-1:
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-ite...E=ASX&N=342285
So it looks like Tieke and Bricklanding will both be spudded next week.
Hopefully, Tap's involvement in Bricklanding won't jinx it!
[:o)]
Bricklanding 1 well has just spudded as well as Tieke 1 well....
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/2006112...45nxj1vy1m.pdf
Kev
Last chance to climb aboard in the low 20,s. [8D]Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Sharp737
Bricklanding 1 well has just spudded as well as Tieke 1 well....
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/2006112...45nxj1vy1m.pdf
Kev
Come on JK, PPPOA is a quick buck and thrown in u get another Thai meal on the house. :)
Lambton, I already have a heap fpo's from cashed in nzoods/pppoas, rights issue etc. if any combination of extra holes are positive. perhaps buy Thai tuckershop! (in Bankok)
First update must be close??
Cheers
JK
PPP Closed up one on NZX, down one on ASX. Hmmmm. A little irrational exuberance on the NZX perhaps
And you make this erudite comment based on final 2 sales of 10,000 shares?Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Paddy
PPP Closed up one on NZX, down one on ASX. Hmmmm. A little irrational exuberance on the NZX perhaps
Sure do - it's in line with my "can't learn anything unless you put it out there" policyQuote:
quote:Originally posted by lambton
And you make this erudite comment based on final 2 sales of 10,000 shares?Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Paddy
PPP Closed up one on NZX, down one on ASX. Hmmmm. A little irrational exuberance on the NZX perhaps
Fair enough :)Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Paddy
Sure do - it's in line with my "can't learn anything unless you put it out there" policyQuote:
quote:Originally posted by lambton
And you make this erudite comment based on final 2 sales of 10,000 shares?Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Paddy
PPP Closed up one on NZX, down one on ASX. Hmmmm. A little irrational exuberance on the NZX perhaps
Paddy fyi, while the sky might be falling in OZ, PPP is going thru the roof NZ. Up nearly 4.5% today already!!!!
JK - yes, glad the majority of my PPP is on NZX. Just interested to see if PPP.AU represents better value right now. Surely once the ACTUAL results of the current drilling program are known, there will be little difference in value between the 2 exchanges
PPP on the nzx is a nice currencey hedge for nz investors as the asx listing drives the price imho.
Whos still holding their shares and their options thru the drill?
I am and its my 2nd biggest investment mostly because its almost doubled.:)
Me,and the other drills as well.
Me 3 [8D]
Me holding.Have waited 2 years for this drill....but it is amazing how I am so confident when in reality the chances are 1 in 4.
Here's hoping that Tieke 1 will be a gusher. Ok, some may not be too optimistic but it does appear that Tieke 1 is the next logical drilling choice for the Tui development and for a layman like me, for these reasons:
1. If you look at the map, Tieke continues in a line down towards the Maui field.
2. It's close to Tui and even closer to Maui. Chances have to be good although there is always a risk.
Now whether or not Tieke 1 is a success, there is the Tui development to start immediately after Tieke 1. That must produce some publicity as New Zealands first genuine offshore oil field development (excluding the Maui oil leg).
Also, Bricklanding 1 in Australia is interesting with two targets. After the first taget is hit, the well will be deviated to the second target according to the TAP oil report. If this well is successful, then development can proceed quickly and quite cheaply because of nearby facilities of which I believe PPP has a stake in.
So all in all, pretty darn exciting! IMHO PPP is a No Brainer. It MUST go up, if not now, then certainly later.
Sharp
Kev
obviously some one has no brains,
as the ppp sp is going down!
Does that make the Aussies brainier - because the sp is rising on ASXQuote:
quote:Originally posted by neopole
obviously some one has no brains,
as the ppp sp is going down!
or is it a curency alignment thing?
It is quite typical for the sp to go down somewhat once the drill meets the middle stages. However, it is strengthening somewhat in Oz, up a cent. Just a matter of waiting now....
Bricklanding report... just over half way, all's well.
Could be an exciting finish... Blicklanding, Tieke.
At "heads or tails" odds I will be happy.
Cheers
JK
Yes PPP could really stomp higher in comming months....Or should I say will stomp higher.
H.
Bricklanding 1 well dry.
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/2006120...wccmks2k0f.pdf
Tieke 1 at 3225m and drilling ahead.
Kev
Tieke 1 minor shows only. Possible well suspension for a sidetrack well to a deeper Kapnuni sandstone target.
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/2006121...kt0qlzxsn0.pdf
No need for panic...in fact now is a buying opportunity before the Tui development. I think possibly a good buying opportunity IMHO.
Kev
From Sept 06 Quaterly Activities: PPP's drilling programme
Well Name PPP share Potential
Reserves Timing
Bricklanding-1 4.157% 100 m bbls Q4, 2006
Tieke-1 10% 15 m bbls Q4,2006
Tui development 1-4 10% Q4, 2006 to Q2, 2007
Hector-1 14.1% >50-60 m bbls Q2,2007
Taranui-1 10.0% 5-15 m bbls Q1, 2007
Reaction to Tieke seems a bit knee-jerk and spec considering what is to come in the near future
PPP
19/12/2006
MINE
REL: 1211 HRS Pan Pacific Petroleum NL
MINE: PPP: PATEKE-3H STARTS DRILLING
STOCK EXCHANGE ANNOUNCEMENT
19 December 2006
Pateke-3H starts drilling
Pan Pacific Petroleum N.L. ("PPP") reports that the development drilling
programme for the Tui Area Development has commenced. The first well in the
programme, Pateke-3H, spudded at approximately 07:00 hours on December 16,
2006. At 06:00 hours today, the well was drilling ahead at a measured depth
of 1,500 metres.
The Tui Area Development drilling campaign is being undertaken on a
"batch-drilling" basis, to optimise the sequencing of drilling operations and
the tie-ins of flowlines to the subsea development wells. The "batch
drilling" will involve the drilling of the upper sections and installing
subsea wellheads and trees on at least three of the planned four wells, prior
to drilling the deeper sections of the wells, including the horizontal
sections within the oil reservoirs.
Following the cementing of the surface casing and the installation of the
sub-sea tree, the Pateke-3H well will be temporarily suspended and the
drilling rig will be relocated to allow similar activities to be completed on
the Tui-2H and Tui-3H wells. Tui-2H is planned to be the first well drilled
to total depth and completed for hook-up to the production facilities.
The Tui Area Development is located within PMP 38158, in the Taranaki basin,
approximately 50 kilometres offshore of the west coast of the North Island of
New Zealand. First oil is expected from the development by June 30, 2007,
and when fully commissioned, a production rate peaking at 50,000 barrels of
oil per day is anticipated.
The project remains on-time and on-budget with the remaining key risks being
abnormal drilling and/or weather conditions.
Participants in Pateke-3H and PMP 38158 are:
Pan Pacific Petroleum NL (through its subsidiary WM Petroleum Ltd) 10.0%
Stewart Petroleum Company Ltd (through New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd)
12.5%
AWE New Zealand Pty Limited ("AWE")
20.0%
New Zealand Overseas Petroleum Pty Ltd ("AWE") 22.5%
Mitsui E & P New Zealand Limited
35.0%
K M Ware
Company Secretary[|)]
So what do others think is the situation of the options?
The way I see it they should currently be worth around A$0.06, with about 4 cent of that time value, and the rest intrinsic value.
As we move toward June the time value of course will approach zero.
Tui itself is probably not much more worth than PPP's current share price (unless the oil price increases significantly) .
So if no other exploration success between now and June the head share will only be slightly above A$0.15, while coming under pressure as the expiration date approaches, as some option holders will sell some of their head shares in order to pay for conversion of their options.
Under this scenario it seems quite likely that the options won't even end up in the money.
As revenue should begin to come in from Tui past June PPP may actually not be in need of further funds, so does any hope for an extension of the expiration date may be unfounded.
On the other hand, directors are option holders too, and there might be the argument that the expiration date of June was set with the aim that Hector should be drilled by then. In this case the options may well get an extention.
All this could be irrelevant though, if either Taranui or Hector are a discovery before June. According to the latest DO schedule it is still planned that these two are drilled prior to the end of May.
Any other scenarios possible?
They re enter Tieke and find.
Something surprises to the up or downside in the production drills.
AWE ann today on refinance states to free up cash for future aquisitions. Logically PPP takeout JV partner.
With OPEC stating today that sub $60 value is unsustainable and Tui economics at far less than that......a safe takeout bid could eventuate IMO.
FRED
I wonder if this is really likely. They were already almost 3600m down, and wasn't the theory that oil may only have moved up from Tui, not down?Quote:
quote:Originally posted by FRED
They re enter Tieke and find.
Also, wouldn't it have been better to spend a few days on a sidetrack straight away, rather than mobilising and anchoring the rig twice more?
If the choice is drilling Hector or re-entering Tieke I know what I would do. [8D]
The way I look at the options Kent...
the options have too much risk...
these risks depend weather Hector and/or Taranui are drilled prior to expiration or not... if not then options are a sure thing to be out of the money...
option holders love volatility... and im not to confident of that leading upto first production...(eg 3c movement).... it should be a nice stable process where SP ticks up slowly... 1st production should be a few weeks before expiration though...
For it to be all worth while you need a 10c AUS, upwards movement in SP...
Favourable Hector could easily cover this and more... ahgghhhh
will it drill, wont it? this is not a question if you hold nzood
extension on expiration date ---> cant imagine it
to hold nzood is much better... the two option values will move in the same direction on the same taranaki events.. with NZO u are sure to get the whole taranaki project, and the overlapping kupe and more... and you get one extra year...
time value on PPP of 4c is too high, options are overpriced, 4c is too high for what little time is left...overvalued currently... The risk taker may be rewarded well..
either reduce risks by buyin nzood... or be prepared to lose the lot...
downside 100%
upside 100% plus a little
Not great risk return for my liking...
I agree with you Shrewd. Tried to say many months ago that the options were overvalued (but maybe was too cryptic). Since then the heads have risen and the options have fallen (both as expected), so the options are closer to reasonable now. As you say, there could be a big reward but the risk is still in gambling territory. A punt on options might be fun if irrational optimism turns to irrational pessimism. Plenty of rollercoaster ride fun left in NZOOD however.
Well, the latest Tui development news nearly a week ago is real good with 3 development wells down to 1500m and being cased. Progress is good and barring any hiccups, we have a real winner here.
Now what I am surprised about is that the share price is still very low. However, once the Institutions get a handle on things, I myself cannot see this low share price lasting. In fact, it's hard to imagine things not happening here as the development proceeds and with the Company's own reports saying that payback would be after about 4 months production. Not to mention upside with Hector and the other 3 Tui prospects nearby.
Whether this low price continues, I'm not sure but there must be a pressure cooker heating up on this one. No big news items as yet on TV here in NZ about the Tui development but that must surely come. The price is probably tied back a little at time because of the NZOG Pike River perceived problems so hopefully that will be sorted out more. However, my sentiment is still "Go PPP!"
Kev
Per Tap Oil website it details Corvas - 2 to be drilled this year :
Corvus-2 WA-246-P 20.00% Gas appraisal 2007
Until now this was really a stranded gas asset, albeit a very thick gas colume - think Corvas -1 was 400m+ thick and open at the bottom.
Would be great to see an appraisal after so many years that may lead to a development.
M
Thanks for that M - good information
PPP has 10% interest in that project. And nothing has been mentioned as yet by PPP.
Here's the link to that area with corvus not even mentioned on PPP's website. 400m thick is one biggie gas field potentially.
http://www.panpacpetroleum.com.au/do...von/wa246p.htm
Sharp
And here's the link to the Tap oil drilling program for Corvus-2
http://www.tapoil.com.au/pages/operations_drilling.asp
The plot thickens....
Sharp
Now this looks even better. Real good from NOG's announcement.
16 January 2007
NZOG’S TUI OIL SET TO DELIVER
New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited advises that drilling of the production wells in the Tui Oil Area is on schedule for oil production to commence from the fields in June 2007.
When fully commissioned, production peaking at 50,000 barrels of oil per day is anticipated. NZOG’s share of this production, based on the approved work programme and budget, an oil price of US$45 per barrel and a NZD:USD exchange rate of 0.65, gives a projected EBITDA* for the company in the first production year of approximately NZ$60 million.
NZOG has hedged approximately 36% of the first 12 months of production to guarantee a minimum price of US$50/barrel.
"Commencement of oil production from Tui will give a major boost to NZOG and help set the company on course for future growth" said Executive Chairman Tony Radford.
As at 0600 hours today, the Tui-2H well had been drilled to a measured depth of 3,427 metres. During the past week, progress on the current hole section has been 1,289 metres. The Tui-2H drilling programme involves the drilling of a pilot hole to approximately 4,200 metres measured depth through the F-Sand oil reservoir section, to guide the placement of the well in the reservoir. A horizontal production hole will then be drilled close to the top of the reservoir.
The shallow sections on three of the Tui Area production wells have been drilled on a "batch-drilling" basis, which involved the drilling of the upper sections and installing subsea wellheads and "trees" on three of the planned four wells, prior to drilling deeper, including the horizontal sections within the oil reservoirs.
In addition to the drilling programme, construction activities are also making good progress. The critical path item is the delivery of the "Umuroa" Floating Production Storage and Offload vessel (FPSO) which is under conversion in Singapore and on target to arrive in New Zealand waters in April 2007. Other construction activities, which are being carried out within New Zealand, are also running to schedule.
* EBITDA = Earnings before income tax, depreciation and amortisation.
Participants in PMP 38158 are:
New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd (through subsidiary Stewart Petroleum Co. Ltd) 12.5%
AWE ** (Operator) 42.5%
Mitsui E & P New Zealand Ltd 35.0%
Pan Pacific Petroleum Ltd (through subsidiary WM Petroleum Ltd) 10.0%
** New Zealand Overseas Petroleum Pty Ltd (22.5%)
AWE New Zealand Pty Limited (20.0%)
Sharp
Sure makes the options look interesting.
theres some good profits to be made here for a patient 7 month max investment....
We have seen the value of the options fall away lately... as I expected....
oil prices are now above $55....
PPP currently trading at 15.5 cents on the ASX...
PPP's share price has recently tracked down with the oil price...
expect share price to re correct slowly upwards
[8D]
.^sc
Agree the options are a bit of a punt but I am holding for the promising Hector drill which WILL be drilled well before opytion expiry.
A broker has stated that Hector would be worth an xtra 70 cents net to NZO so there is a heap of upside for both PPP and PPPOA if Hector is a winner.And of corse NZOOD.
Old owl and I were both in agreement on the 22/12 that options were overvalued...
remember that the options exercise price of 15cents is an australian 15cents
exchange rate of .9
$.15/.9= $.1666
so exercise price is 16.66 cents NZ...
you can buy heads on the market tomorrow at 18cents and options at 5cents
breakeven on the options are 21.66cents at expiration if bought tomorrow
I think there is a far greater chance that SP will be above 22cents at expiration than below... every 5c movement above 21.66 is 100% profit...at 18c a share.... and if 26.66 at expiration then
26.66c, options 100% profit... shares 48%profit
31.66c options 200% profit.... shares 75% profit
36.66c options 300% profit.... shares 103%profit...
at 31cents you would surely be happy with 75% return on the shares...
Bermuda... the 70cents value to NZO is the value at production...
with say 3 years to production.... and 15% discount per year
100/(1.15)^3=65%
.65*70=45cents
so the value of Hector that your options will be able to take advantage of is 45cents (in NZO terms)... not the full value of 70cents....
regardless, yes still a heap of upside....
expect SP to tick up as oil prices rise....
[8D]
.^sc
Now just imagine if Management extend the options 3 or 6 months?
This sort of thing has happened before. But anyway, with the way that the Tui development is going (very well at this stage), I would agree that Hector is going to be drilled before the expiry date. Whether or not Hector is successful, IMO the options will increase.
Aaaah...looks like Hector to be drilled in March April 2007 according to AWE's website
http://www.awexp.com.au/
Just click on drilling programes. Now if that's correct, it's great news.
Sharp
Whats the upside in PPP -current ASX sp 15c-
Once Tui producing 5,000bopd=PPP[?]
looks very cheap to me at 15c without looking to far into PPP balances & dept, only got a MKTcap of 64mill
my rough est. 5000x$80bbl=400,000 gross perday AUD X 350 =140mill gross even if costs tax hegdes PPP must be looking at 60mill+ [?]sounds to good to be true;)
Tell you what....if I had a lot of spare cash, I would be getting more. But that's me. Up to everyone to do there own research and as always, you make the call. There is always a risk. Obviously there is some big sellers at the moment which is why the price is down but that may be a golden opportunity for some.
Having a look at it though, it looks like a no brainer considering Tui development is going great, payback in an estimated 4 months, very good chances of extending Tui's reserves, the big Hector prospect and others in Taranaki plus those in Australia along with some new management which all bodes well for PPP. And plenty of cash and finance for the development.
Sharp
agree...Quote:
quote:Sharp737 Posted - 31/01/2007 : 8:31:04 PM
Tell you what....if I had a lot of spare cash, I would be getting more. But that's me. Up to everyone to do there own research and as always, you make the call. There is always a risk. Obviously there is some big sellers at the moment which is why the price is down but that may be a golden opportunity for some.
Having a look at it though, it looks like a no brainer considering Tui development is going great, payback in an estimated 4 months, very good chances of extending Tui's reserves, the big Hector prospect and others in Taranaki plus those in Australia along with some new management which all bodes well for PPP. And plenty of cash and finance for the development.
Sharp
"if I had a lot of spare cash, I would be getting more"....
hey buddy, If I had any spare cash, I would be getting more....
yes, pay back is 3-4 months at Tui
look, no buyers today on asx.... no takers at 15cents.... wow mumma....
[8D]
.^sc
with Hector drill something like 6-8weeks away...
then one would really want to be getting in within the next four weeks....
SP will bounce just before Hector drill, allow abit of extra time....
should see 17cents aus mid hector drill
20 cents just after production in June....
guaranteed 30% here... a no brainer....
personally not sure if I will re-enter here, holding a few others with certain upsides also....
PPPOA (options are now starting to reach my target prices) which correspond more correct risk-return favourability...
Thinkin PPPOA will fall before they go up...
get in time is around 1 month from now or earlier....
SP-currently 15cents on ASX...
[8D]
.^sc
Hi Shrewdy
I honestly hope this dry tit eventually produces for you, but atm there are no queues lining up for crumbs.
Cheers
JK
Interesting Joe King that as you say no one is lining up for the crumbs. That is true but but has no bearing on the outcome.The presence or otherwise of oil at Hector is unaffected by current market sentiment. To me it is more like that in the past the market has got too high on success chances so now is downgrading it .Quote:
quote:Originally posted by JoeKing
Hi Shrewdy
I honestly hope this dry tit eventually produces for you, but atm there are no queues lining up for crumbs.
Cheers
JK
The market will either be correct or it could turn out to be the the biggest missed opportunity for capital gain in years
About 1 in 7 chances is my guess going on the seismic and oil shows at Pukeko.
Still holding despite liquidating 80% of my NZX porfolio over Feb.
Upside is very real. Insiders could be tempted to sell at the .35
Nice vehicle for an international player looking for SW Pacific exposure.
Very impressed with Diamond drilling (with RIG and SLB world leaders), DO delivered on budget on time with the production drilling, nice not to blowout at that stage as it easily could have.
Every day closer to production the risk window closes and the price must eventually move higher. I hasten to add oil will have to fall below 44$ in my estimate to bring pressure on the tui operational profit.
discl.
hold
PGW, PPP, NZX, NZFSU
Many moons ago one of the JV partners said Tui breakeven point is $30us per barrel.... and profitable at $40us per barrel....
PPP market value is $67 million
11million cash at bank year end less expected quarterly cashflow expenditure of 7million so 4million cash at bank....
20million used up on two seperate loans....as at 31-1-06
had 12million US left to be drawn down as at 31-1-06
27% of reserves hedged at min of $50 max of $94
2.8million barrels to PPP
2.8m * (60-30)us dollars
=84million US dollars...
84/.75=
112million NP before tax....
at $70... NPBT is $149m AUS
and Hector....
1....SC is currently not holding this "dry tit"...Quote:
quote:JK said.....
1.....I honestly hope this dry tit eventually produces for you,
2....but atm there are no queues lining up for crumbs.
my hands are already full..[:p]
2.....that is why it is good to be in early as you dont have to deal with all the hussle and bussle when the queues do come back...
when you look at the 20 mill gathered on loans... it doesnt look too flash... oil prices will dictate this company...
expect oil prices to remain around the $60 this year...
sometimes it will fall below, other times it will go over...
[8D]
.^sc
fellas whats the exercise date of the options?
30 june 2007?
the same date as first oil comes in?
Hey Dazzler....
yes you are correct, expiration of Options date is 30 June 2007...
QUOTE-"The project risks continue to be reduced and the project remains on schedule for first oil by June 30, 2007"
all though The joint venture has approved a 9% budget increase to account for slower drilling rates than anticipated...
Any set backs and these options are worthless...
Options on ASX fell 15% yesterday....
PPPO-PPPOA will continue to fall.... and start rising in the lead up to Hector Drill....
Options donot provide favourable return for your risk....
NZOOD is my pick... or NZO on CFD....! in about a months time.....
[8D]
.^sc
Well someone just picked up 1.5 million options at 2.7 cents . That someone must be confident.
This email from John Campbell at oilers.com.au.
I refer subscribers to the recent announcements from the Tui Oil field JV partners saying that Tui 2H drilling had to be lenghtened after the oil reserve was found to extend further than orignally mapped on the seismic study. A NZOG spokesperson said that the discovery of a "bigger oil column" was a" positive indicator."
The development budget was increased by 9% to cover the additional cost of drilling a longer than anticipated horizontal. As we suggested in last week's OGW we expect this will lead to a "reserve estimate upgrade" at the end of the currrent drilling program. Currently the 2P reserves are 27.9 million barrels.
We have accordingly been buying Pan Pacific Petroleum for what we see as the best leveraged exposure to this oil field. The operator , Australian Worldwide Exploration, expects to build production up to a peak of 50,000 barrels of oil a day, some 5,000 bopd net to Pan Pacific. The investment pay back looks like being just a few months. We have conservatively estimated a net value to PPP of 14 cents a share based on a net of A$30 barrel (see OGW of 11 March). PPP has a 10% stake in the field. First oil is scheduled for end June.
But in addition to the prospect of significant cash flow from a producing field in just three months time, PPP has 10-14% exposure to two wildcat wells in the same area, one Hector #1 with the potential for more than 100 mmbls recoverable (yes we know it pays to be wary of such estimates!). The other Taranui #1, is a smaller target but closer to the discovery wells. Both will be drilled before production starts at Tui. So any disappoinment from these two wells will be quickly offset by the start up of Tui.
Success at Hector would more than double the size of the Tui field and could be tied back into the production infrastructure. And success will have a significant impact on PPP as it will on the other partners. AWE and NZO.
In addition Pan Pacific has been talked about for some time as a takeover target. Any raider out there would be wise to make their run sooner rather than later.
In short with PPP we have:
(a) Reserve upgrade likely
(b) Two wildcats close to the current discoveries
(c) A T/O target
(a) and (b) before end June
The Company has 433 million shares on issue valueing it at $70 million. It has $10 million in cash and the prospect of another $10 million at the end of June when 157 million options with a 15 cent exercise price are due. The options are already in the money and should be more so as the expiry date nears.
Now we are not making a buy recommendation. We don't have the requisite licence to enable us to do that. We simply want to draw subscribers attention to a stock which we personally are buying as one of the best prospects for short term upside in an otherwise very ordinary oiler market.
For the really adventurous the options are currently trading at around 2.5 cents. This means an investment of $5,000 gives one control over 200,000 PPP shares for a total exposure of 17.5 cents a share. These are some of the best odds we have seen for a long while given the revenues soon to be flowing Pan Pacific's way. So we have been buyng the oppies as well.
One for the watch list!
Regards,
John Campbell
Whats UP ?
Today PPP volume on ASX is over 1.7 million.
PPPO options are 3.2million on ASX, 1.7 million on NZX.
Yes Mr Tommy we do notice that but can only reask your question,What's up.
Nothing else in the related oil sector is up so it is only PPP specific. Who knows for a long time now PPP has been a sitting duck for takeover. Or maybe someone just wants a good size stake in Hector.
Good info Bart, keep it up :-)
Sharp
From memory nzo owned a blocking stake in ppp, as they are jv partners it probably makes smart choice. Owned ppp a long time ago they have been going nowhere for a while now.
I think they have close to 10%....will check up on that
Sharp
PPP Annual Report
http://www.panpacpetroleum.com.au/pd...EPORT_2006.pdf
NOG has 7.59%
Mr Alan Tattersfield has 3.52%
NOG Nominee's has 1.11%
Sharp
How has PPP been effected by the blow out to get tui to production, i'm a bit out of the loop these days on ppp but i guess they will be effected a bit.
Hi bart...Quote:
quote:Bart-Success at Hector would more than double the size of the Tui field and could be tied back into the production infrastructure. And success will have a significant impact on PPP as it will on the other partners. AWE and NZO.
I thought that success as Hector would be a seperate development, rather than just a tie in at tui.....
Yeah bit of a shock today with Pan... I personally was not expecting a re-rating until real close to Hector drill... this situation is probably going to be the case with NZO....NZO investors are mad about the other projects and IMO wont act until they have to...
PPP is a solid little company.... note also that debts are growing and are now in the region of 20million dollars....
[8D]
.^sc
Sharp 737
NZO exercised their PPP options a while back & now hold just over 10% of PPP.
There won't be a takeover any time soon, so long as Tony Radford remains at the helm.
He has already indicated to NZO he is stepping down so he isnt in both the CEO/Chairman roles & this blocking stake secures his position.
NZO would be foolish to sell out before TUI is producing, but i can't see them buying any more shares in PPP other than to remain over 10%, should any further dillution occur.
Shasta
Thanks for that. Yes, I think it is highly unlikely that PPP will be taken over. NZOG had their chance years ago when I think they had close on 60% of PPP. However, one could be wrong but I don't think so. The 10% or so that NZOG has will deter any would be suitors like AWE or whoever.
Sharp
Shasta
I think you are mistaken in so far as NZO taking up th options in PPP.
Yes they have some options and I recall they applied and recieved over subscription in the cash issue.
However as to exercising...they have not...and it would be bloody stupid to do until expiry in any case.
FRED
.
Nymex crude back over US$61 / barrel .....
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/com...rgyprices.html
.