TWR chart looking good atm
Tower broke out of it's trading range late last week and smart money came in.
The fasinating thing about TWR is its strong historical respect to it's Support and Resistance (S&R) levels which gives some comfort to investors when it comes to enter and exit.
So...with this S&R history, it comes with no surprise that eventually a trading range formation would happen.
This trading range is called a completed Rectangle bottom formation which after a break out has only average predictability depending on many variables. In TWR's case a gap breakout increases the chance to reach its target price of 1.75 to 85%..however the pre-formation spike is a negative and lowers that 85% chance, and especially that 1.65 historic resistance level (my biggest worry) but the NZX index being in a cyclic bull market increases that chance up again .....so conservatively a chance of 65-70+% to reach 1.75. (****Bulkowski 85% chance to reach 1.72 for basic KISS method)
Pull backs occur 53% of the time so there's a slightly better than even chance that on its way to meet its 1.75 investor target price**** the price will fail the first time to breach 1.65 resistance and fall back (pull back) to test its new 1.55 support...this gives the late (tardy) TA investor (me!!) a second chance (53%) to enter.
Thats the chart formation theory side of things....now we still and wait for the practical side to play out :mellow:.
Note that the investor target price 1.75 is just a mathematical thing usually a 70+% chance of reaching that area for rectangles in a bull market... sometimes there is no resistance (slight resistance in TWR's case) in that area so it should not be seen as a magical barrier....often it keeps going up past the target price.... or 30% of the time it won't make it.
**** 1.72 target price using BUlkowski's latest formula ...(see Bulkowski's the pattern site)
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/q...WR02032012.png
Well, here's another nice mess you've gotten me into!
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Hoop
...the best way to effect a change is to buy some shares and then watch them fall...bought a token amount (toe in the water 4000) for 166c at 1.40pm today...
You bung up all these fancy technical graphs showing it going nowhere and then you do WHAT?
It is a good job Phaedrus is not here.
I hope it works out for you :)
best wishes
Paper Tiger
Steady result, not stellar result
NAV maybe $1.79 but NTA is a little lower:
Tower reckon it is $1.60, I reckon it is lower (but only one of us is right).
Strip out the change in Investment Revenue and it is all very much as it was.
Surprised they are chucking a 5c dividend out. Maybe they want to prove they think they are doing well and can sustain it.
best wishes
Paper Tiger
Typing slowly so that you can keep up.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
belgarion
LOL - Any other sources of income they should strip out ? This is one aspect of the core business after all.
OK, I will re-word it so that even belge can understand. :p
The change in pre-tax profit is almost exactly the same as the change in investment revenue.
If you dig into that bit of the report you will see the big change within that is from 'derivative financial assets and financial liabilities' (this time working in their favour).
best wishes
Paper Tiger