was pretty lucky , shorted again at 0.7155 last nite just before i went to sleep...
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was pretty lucky , shorted again at 0.7155 last nite just before i went to sleep...
Arco, yes noted thanks, I redrew neckline using line chart last night - then reverted chart to a HLC - last nights top was about 5 pips under perfection
Xerof
doubled up at .7133 , set stop to break even and it just got taken out hahah.... the kiwi is a shocker
still holding the euro short from 1.2335 tho
Kiwi is really having a life of its own it seems to me....
You're fighting our ludicrously hawkish CB ... honestly, they'll be easing by Q4 '04 at this rate ...
Kiwi will have its waterloo when the Q1 data starts undershooting ... course commodity strength isn't helping shorts either, ditto the Aussie ...
Peat, yr post on the AUD thread refers
I still see the H&S pattern, with current northerly progress still retesting the neckline, now residing around 7200 area, based on EOD data. BUT, I also see an inverse H&S pattern which has formed below the neckline of the larger H&S over the past few weeks, so need to carefully watch price action in early 72's for a continuation of uptrend. i.e. a failed H&S.
Interested in others views on this
Xerof
Morning Xerof
I mentioned possible General Gann resistance
could halt progress circa 7202. The overnight
high was 7197, so we could see a little hesitation
at this point. Major Gann will muster his troops
more to the North and I expect he will be almost
impenetrable at co-ordinates 7324.
Yes I see that little Inverse Head and Shoulders
you mentioned. I will have a word with Dan Druff
about this, however if I use the normal H & S
yardstick it amazingly projects the action to circa
7350........not a million miles from Major Gann's
position at 7324.
:D Keep smiling
PS. How much is my $20 worth now in the Fund of Funds.
Well lets see now, after fees for entry, your share of the launch party costs, Colonel Gann's appearance fee, and that first dumb deal I did on your behalf..... er, can I have your address to send you the bill for $8.60:D:D
I'm in the final throes of getting documentation out to my 'habituals, close business associates etc', then wait for their cheques to stop bouncing, and away we go.
Thanks for comments on NZD. Maybe sell 7200 with very tight stop and reverse perhaps - if one HAS to have a trade on.
Xerof
nice little cascade there
Looks a bit like the original H&S has developed as expected - dammit, side tracked today and missed all the activity
But see trendline support at 7080 in the interim, but v limited bounces now I feel. Otherwise might have to chase it lower....
Xerof
from a fundamental perspective... tomorrow's NZ GDP is pushing the NZDUSD down a little due to negative expectations... I have no idea what GDP figure will be... though if it's negative or in line with expectations the tone could be set as bearish for the next couple of days.
POSSIBLY (just my thoughts)
as well as that the FOMC meets on 29/30 and may raise interest rates again, which tends to be bearish for the NZDUSD... so pricing of that in could help strengthen the bearish tone. added to that the possibility of stop-loss price cascade we could see some good downward movement over the next few weeks?
(DISC though i own a few puts i.e. i have a bearish bias so i could be unconsciously ignoring the up side, or over imagining the downside)
by the way, some of today's action was instigated by the current account data for NZ - which was somewhat bearish
And I was certain it was all Major Gann's fault :D
If anyone took the low risk trade around the Gann
resistance mentioned 21/6............
General Gann resistance could halt progress circa 7202
...there will be a nice 150 pips in the bag right now.
GTA
arco
arco
GTA ?
Good Trading All
good trading ahead
Gann trounces allcomers
That Major Gann deserves a promotion Arco
Xerof
My limit order missed getting triggered by 2 pips :(Quote:
quote:Originally posted by arco
And I was certain it was all Major Gann's fault :D
If anyone took the low risk trade around the Gann
resistance mentioned 21/6............
General Gann resistance could halt progress circa 7202
...there will be a nice 150 pips in the bag right now.
GTA
arco
Arggggg!
Lake
One solution is to scale several orders in at
different rates around the target.
e.g. 7192/7197/7202/7207/7212
Slam
GTA
Gone to Australia :D
.......will the last person to leave
please switch off the light.
Good Trading All
Great Trousers Arco
Xerof
Come back....all is forgiven
we miss your FA. :D
NZD doing a wee bounce, may provide a sell opportunity if it's decent, for those going short:)
And that was it[:0]Quote:
quote:Originally posted by slam
NZD doing a wee bounce, may provide a sell opportunity if it's decent, for those going short:)
Arco
I'm here, I'm here
200 day EMA right here at 7037, looking in grave danger of breaking, but that H&S I've talked about ad nauseum appears to have successfully repelled upside attempts, with not inconsiderable assistance from General Gann and his troops.
Assuming by FA you mean fundamental, and not fat a#se, well hearing from interbank traders of stops under 7030, i.e on a break of 200 day EMA:D:D
Xerof
wolfe pattern (or one eyed trouser snake) mentioned on General Chit Chat seems to be in play[8D]
I COULD be wrong (that is not uncommon:):)) but this area might hold for a while - profit taking before weekend by locals, proximity of EMA200. If it does, sell rallies back to 7075/80, where one should add to those excellent shorts from higher up. I'm not advocating going long - think we'll see an attack on sub 7030 in tonights twilight zone.
Xerof
Xerof
Assuming by FA you mean fundamental, and not fat a#se
Who would say such a thing....Only a very cheeky person! [:I]
or someone who perhaps is singularly holy
Good call on the bounce there Xerof[8D]
Well, have to follow my instincts - sold at 7075. s/l just above 7100
Xerof
added at 7110 s/l on both 7130
Pssssst, hey Peat, that last post you did on the other channel last night quoting your platforms NZD comments - of course you know who the 'tentative swiss' interest was don't you? - GCM.
BTW, I would suggest the banks were VERY pleased to see him, as trying to execute large s/l orders on a Friday afternoon in NYK spells disaster for customer relationships....
which platform do you use Peat?, as that comment was right up with the play, in both accuracy and timing - possibly one of the clearers making supportive comments, being very keen to ensure nothing was going to be triggered late in the day
Watch out next week - its 'gunna' happen
I also took back half my position at 7047
nice weekend to all - it's pissing down here today
Xerof
I use GFT Dealbook FX2 and yes the news feed is quite good.
I dont know who the GCM you refer to is tho. Care to clarify?
I have reduced my Kiwi shorts now still holding something and will probably add again if it spikes next week. Shame I didnt do that last night - Arco's quote about being brave sticks in my throat sometimes hahah
Glad you didnt get stopped out last night Xerof. I was thinkin of you :)
gold c.... m..... - put it into context now? remember a few weeks ago he stated he used XXX (a swiss bank) to clear all his non AUD and YEN transactions? So who was buying it around 7044? and AUD around 7669 and stopped the rot for the rest of the day....
cheers
Xerof
nope that doesnt precisely clarify... tho I'm getting your general drift... Seems like there must be some reason why you're not spelling it out... no matter....
Good trades...
5th leg count circa .6920:) completing the wolfe
Need a 4th bounce first;)
Cheers
Slam
Morning Slam
I presume you are talking about Wolfe Wave.
What date is your start point?
Regards
arco
Morning arco
circa 30th may
OK - what are you basing your 5th wave
projection figure on ?
from 1 to 4
I should clarify that the 30th was count of 1
http://www.nzwebservice.co.nz/4xchar...-USD Daily.gif
Slam
Yes I can see where you are coming from,
however I could see the 5th wave ending
lower.
Where did you learn your Wolfe Wave ?
and has it worked for you?
arco
arco
http://www.investopedia.com/articles.../05/040405.asp
First time I've found this pattern and so far on this trade it's working fine.
My end point may be a bit out as my charts, as you can see, don't allow room for future plotting :(
will follow this one as it looks like the real deal
Cheers
Slam
Nice work Slam,
I don't know which charting package you have but if you want some fresh air on the RHS of your charts, go to view, periods, then change leading space to whatever suits
you can also adjust the periods shown on any chart using periods - you'll find it in the same box as leading space
Yes looks like selling rallies is the mode for a while now
Still short from 7075, added last night at 7037 and 7036 just to keep an interest....
Xerof
Hi Slam
I have experimented with WW in the past
but I did not find they worked well with FX.
(I think they work OK on some of the indices).
The NZD pattern is again not quite perfect based
on the rule Waves 3 and 5 are usually 127%
or 162% (Fibonacci) extensions of the previous
channel point.
Anyway, patterns are rarely perfect, so it
will be interesting to see what happens.
arco
Hi Xerof
Unfortunately I use FX power chart which doesn’t allow leading space (you get what you pay for and it's free[:I])
I also use market scope but don’t like the tools it has.
May have to look for a new one soon me thinks
Cheers
Slam
Slam
Yes I know what you mean - I use http://www.dailyfx.com/fxpowerchart/ChartStation.html as a basic service, also expensively free and it doesn't have leading space either. Saxobanks charts have the feature I mentioned, on their trading platform
Xerof
sorry arco, missed your comments.
point taken on the fib.
still think it fits the criteria well though.
as you say, just have to wait and see if ww works with fx
worth a crack Nigel;)
Cheers Slam
Nigel’s whole future is as good as sealed
And if young Nigel says he’s happy
He must be happy
He must be happy in his work
Nigel is not outspoken
But he likes to speak
And loves to be spoken to
Nigel is happy in his work
We’re only making plans for nigel
Pure Ecstasy ;) or should that be XTC.
used to sing it;)
took shorts back at 6987 - 10 units for total 342.5 pips
Good night
The boy who cried wolfe
Still waiting for the 4th and 5th to finish.
May need to get an extended 5th to complete general pattern;)
Only time will let us know (Link or Chapter I think):)
Cheers Slam
The boy who cried Wolfe Wave.:)
The plot could well reach the 1-4 line but there
may be some northward movement before that can
happen IMVHO.
Morning all
if we're lucky, might be able to re-establish short around 7030/40 area - unless Major Gann has pushed his northern battalion further south overnight :D:D
Xerof
Bit of news due later today...........
....any fundi thoughts from the back room boys that we
should be aware of Xerof.
Date............GMT-SYD-NZ-Release for-Period-Consensus- Previous
30/06/2005 01.30 11.30 13.30 AUS ABS Job Vacancies May Q 6.2%
30/06/2005 01.30 11.30 13.30 AUS Private Sector Credit May 1.0% 0.9%
30/06/2005 07.55 17.55 19.55 GER Unemployment Rate Jun 11.8%
30/06/2005 07.55 17.55 19.55 GER Unemployment Change Jun flat
30/06/2005 08.30 18.30 20.30 UK GDP Q1 0.5% 0.5%
30/06/2005 09.00 19.00 21.00 EMU CPI y/y Jun 1.9%
30/06/2005 09.30 19.30 21.30 UK GfK Consumer Confidence Jun -1 -1
30/06/2005 12.30 22.30 0.30 US Initial Jobless Claims W/e 25/6 330K 314K
30/06/2005 12.30 22.30 0.30 US Personal Income May 0.3% 0.7%
30/06/2005 12.30 22.30 0.30 US Personal Spending May 0.1% 0.6%
30/06/2005 12.30 22.30 0.30 US Core PCE Index May 0.1% 0.1%
30/06/2005 13.00 23.00 1.00 US NY NAPM Jun 337.3
30/06/2005 14.00 24.00 2.00 US Chicago PMI Jun 53.0 54.1
30/06/2005 18.30 4.30 6.30 US FOMC Interest Rate Announcement
Well, of course the rumor/news leak combo that caused the rapid turnaround from last nights lows in all pairings was the rumored death of Saudi King Fahid/ leak of German unemployment figures being better than expectation.
These sorts of 'news' items tend to surface just as the edge of a cliff is apparent, and allow the 'sharks to stophunt the reef-fish'.
So treat them as they should be treated - just another opportunity to get long USD:D:D
IMVHO of course
Xerof
early tomorrow morning should be fun to watch...might just go to the trouble of getting up to watch [FOMC comments]
As for FED - 25 pip increase, and IMV a cut and paste of last commentary would be the most likely outcome - ignore all the talk and fear of a pause in rate increases - IMV
Xerof
Xerof
You could look at 6958 minor Gann support which is
presently creating a Double Bottom. A break of
this line forms a nice H&S topping pattern.
Lower down.........Major Gann @ 6835 could cause
some hesitation before dis pair (despair?) plunges
even lower.
arco
I thought it was a Central Bank intervention or 'a supranational' as my platform news described it.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Xerof
Well, of course the rumor/news leak combo that caused the rapid turnaround from last nights lows in all pairings was the rumored death of Saudi King Fahid/ leak of German unemployment figures being better than expectation.
Very little bounce seen today - I've seen more out of dead cats than the Kiwi....so have re-entered short at 6988, to assist with funds legal bills......hopefully!
Xerof
maybe you should hold any 70+ shorts as precious relics of the past ;)
maybe...
instant gratification on those little puppies:D:D
Hope Mr G doesn't spoil the party in the morning
Xerof
yes Z think 70's might now only relate to reminiscence about music genres than the level of the currency
Appears now more certain that Elvis has left the building.....
Delightfully bearish flag on the 15 minute chart
Now late for lunch bibi
easy pips for you ....
I really need to quit this day job or get a web interface account setup :(
i collected all my NZD shorts in the .6990's ...
ooh! option just went at-the-money
nice little breakaway there, maybe we'll be seeing the 68s soon??
Well, has reached the 1,4 juncture on the WW[8D]
so, may see a bit of res around here (.6884 )
maybe:)
Have a good weekend all
Cheers
Slam
Agreed Slam, just squared my short as well for 101 dalmations
Will reshort on a decent bounce, if we see one (see it's going a little lower now - no worries)
Xerof
Can't resist - sold again at 6918[:p][:p]
Xerof
and something I haven't seen before - my platform confirmed the deal before they went 18 bid. Anyone been watching their platform close enough to witness such a phenomenonononon - maybe they were caught short - I don't know
i bit at .6910
wont be too greedy tho ...
cant believe it gave me 50 pips hehehheheheheh
woke up, reached for treo... quote: 6810
nice thing to wake up to ;)
Sounds like everyone had a good night:D:D
Closed short far too early, 6863, but not complaining
Better than s.e.x at times, this game isn't it. Of course, when its not, thats the alternative, so what have we to complain about[:p][:p]
Xerof
Finally closed my shorts at 6.766[:0]
Sitting better now thanks:D
good man - think it squeezes now
USD/GBP open interest is at highest level since 1999. Add the significant open interest levels in Euro and there remains the potential for correction of USD. I would still not short USD but just take note for profit taking.
UI have halved my USD short volume and shifted my stop to 0.684 - but is a nice run.
Welcome Base Trader.
I look forward to your participation.
NZD. Overnight troops managed to scout around
Ganns first post at 6835 reaching the outer
field of Monarchs circa 6759.
Therefore I expect they will re-group and kick
Major Gann's rear before departing further south
to tackle Leonardo Pisano's 50 stationed at 6695.
Down down deeper and down
Yes, I was one of the butterflies floating in that lower area last night from an admittedly very late and average entry, (just enough rounds to reload the colt 45 and ammo belt) but then re-entered short at 6780 in anticipation of the charge south, and may fire a few more rounds if 6800/15 area seen first. Perhaps not an ideal initial entry but the southbound battalion is a dogged lot
into the valley of death......
Xerof
weirdQuote:
quote:Originally posted by Xerof
into the valley of death......
Xerof
I quoted Tennyson yesterday in a forum regarding fatal management mistakes
hopefully this time you're quote is directed at the currency and not at us traders heheh
Currency Peat currency
All defenders of stale longs.....all 21 billion of them
Just squared my short at 6720, looking to resell at 6755Quote:
quote:re-entered short at 6780 in anticipation of the charge south
Xerof
i'm short from 6765 with limit buy at 6702
stuck away from platform tho (dayjob argh)
66 soon methinks
yeh gettin close to my limits !!
Yeah Peat you'll get them - a resounding rejection of the rally in both NZD and AUD
I doubt there's much petrol left in the tank for topside now
:D
and when I set that t/p this morning I thought I was being tooooo ambitious....
option profit now > 400%
^_^
Zyreon, run it to expiry mate
Peat, when the market gets a bee in its bonnet, like its getting now, any level might seem crazy, but you're likely to see it!!
hmmm
i was considering swapping it for an at the money option...use the profits to extend expiry.
meditate on this i must
This H&S on the daily has worked out very well with close to 500 piparoonies seen to date, if you managed to stay on board. I didn't but have captured most of it in fits and starts on the way down.Quote:
quote:20/6 - I still see the H&S pattern, with current northerly progress still retesting the neckline, now residing around 7200 area,
Reading the "bible" to try and determine some price objectives, clearly the ideal objective would be 100% of the whole move up from circa 5900.
BUT right here at 6690, we are at the L P Fib 50. Just wanted to point that out - make of it what you like, but maybe, just maybe we might see a little bounce.
Xerof
Arco, re NZD
Major Gann wouldn't be liking the steepness of this current trend either would he?
Bugger me, got the rally off 6690. Couldn't wait for 6755 so shorted at 6744. Just hope we don't end up with a key reversal, but lots of time for that to fade into oblivion
Xerof
wow, that's ****ed up
Not good but no surprise,hope people I know over there are ok.
Yesterday
Just a coincidence?.....maybe not....current high 6805Quote:
quote:Overnight troops managed to scout around
Ganns first post at 6835 reaching the outer
field of Monarchs circa 6759.
Therefore I expect they will re-group and kick
Major Gann's rear ...........
It will be an interesting night with the British situation.
wow, so i take it speculators closed their shorts... ran over to cable etc and jumped on bandwagon... illiquidity caused rally.
now people wisen up and shorting the rally (me included ;)).... hmm maybe back down to 6700 by morning?
I remember the night of 9/11, (who can forget), and a similar pattern occurred in NZD. There was a strong rally of about 100 pips, in an illusionary 'safe haven' burst of buying, followed by a collapse of 200/300 pips, as risk aversion took effect i.e lets take our money home lads. The reason was, I believe, related to other asset markets collapsing, i.e. the DJI, etc etc and hedge funds were forced to close out profitable positions to cover losses elsewhere.
I've deleted my comment re charting tools, as the situation has developed for the worse since that posting, and it would be in bad taste to leave it on the thread
Xerof
true true, i was hardly into stocks during 9/11 let alone currency.
just occured to me before about the whole safe haven thing
i was away from the screen during last nights volatility but had some sells setup so have now re-enetered short at .6732
as the gold coast guru said volatility creates opportunity.
Added big parcel shorts at 6781 just before retiring,
........woke to a nice 50 pips...........hanging in.
Nice work lads, seems we all kept cool heads and sold the spike
Added to short from 80 with a few more mint wafers at 75
Also not tempted.....
Xerof
Quote:
quote:Slip sliding away, slip sliding away
You know the nearer your destination, the more you slip sliding away
good levels to reenter short here ..... shame I cant or i would.
Caution required, in my view - those 50% fib retracement areas for both NZD (0.6590) and AUD (0.7370) held very nicely on Friday, but agree - topside is probably limited.
Xerof