Tx Noodles.
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Tx Noodles.
You maybe better off at $4.10.
"he wants to get back into the scratcher immediately (if not sooner).
and she want to go and get her hair done !! :confused:
When is the first half/full year reports due ???
I wonder if we will get quarterly updates ??
Maybe $4.20
BB
BB
WHEN IS ORION HEALTH'S FISCAL YEAR END?
Orion Health's fiscal year ends on March 31st.
https://www.orionhealth.com/investor...ked-questions/
Will be keeping an eye out for a 'event calendar' on their site
Wasn't our undeclared wait is for 3 months from IPO due to those escrow shares of at least 10%, if I'm not mistaken? Better if we all can wait longer for those still wanting shares on this one.
Disc: did not get any for IPO and would not be getting anytime soon
In line with guidance
https://nzx.com/files/attachments/204711.pdf
http://arunsplace.com/
'Companies that can extract meaningful patterns from this incoming data will have created a powerful new kind of moat' > genome mapping & data mining.'Iinformation processing at the core of their value creation'
Who knows what the potential Moat is ? Time in the market,resources,knowledge,first mover advantage in most lucrative market/most critical & questioning market,integrating other associated players into field of influence ?
Who has the gumption ?
Hi Kiora,
just wondering - would you like to expand on the basis for your projections? What are your revenue and margin assumptions? Do you assume that they run in 2020 still at a loss (XRO - mark II)? If not, what PE do you assume for the basis of your projection?
Did you use any existing company to model their growth - or are these projections just based on one data point (current SP) and guts feeling?
Personally - I think that they are a good company in a growth industry. However - given that they are not even able to make any predictions by themselves, I think it is for an outsider without additional information a bit brave (in lack of other PC words) to talk the SP at this stage up. 6 months ago (prior to the IPO) the share was worth $4.00 and I don't know whether this was appropriate or not. I take it you hope that the SP might keep going up (and who knows, it might for a time).
Just concerned that people might use your numbers as basis for making investment decisions ... unless, there is a solid base for them.
Otherwise - if we are here in phantasy land: the SP might be $40 in a year (doing the XRO thing) and $15 in two (hey - it might, who knows ...) or alternatively it might drop from here and following the RAK or GEN story (ending up as penny dreadful). Only sky and ground are the limits ...;)
Hi BP
"Only sky and ground are the limits ...undefined" as you say
My 'assumptions' are based on their past performance,my assessment of the industry they are in,my assessment of their position in their industry and discussing these assessments with people in their industry.
My assessment is that their T/O trend will continue in the current trajectory,the profit will depend on Orion Health being able to moneterise their big data analysis along with Health Management and of course what they are prepared to invest & rate of investment on development in relation to their income
As you say ,DYOR
For me I,m happy to invest 10% of my portfolio for the RISK/REWARD that ORION HEALTH offers and not to be personally concerned their not wishing to outline their predictions as some other investors are inclined to do
Here is someone who is thinking about the' Health Space'
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11370171
https://www.linkedin.com/company/lif...g-company-logo
https://www.linkedin.com/company/one...g-company-logo
'In 2010, he set up the charity One Disease, working with indigenous Australian communities to help eradicate scabies. And his most recent project, Life Letters, has been set up to help people understand the role genetics plays in their makeup and help with early identification of illness.
Prince says the recent developments in genetics have unlocked huge potential for preventive, personalised medicine.
Life Letters aims to harness the power in this knowledge to improve health outcomes for people across the world.
"Correct and responsible understanding of individual genomes could be used to predict cancer, and prevent disease. We have Nobel Prize winners on our board; Life Letters is set to launch in Asia next year and we are predicting it could soon become one of the biggest businesses in Australia."
Anyone got Orion on their target list and if so at what price will you start buying. Looks like it could fall below IPO price today as latest trade at 5.80 and few sellers with top being 200 shares at 5.72. Not looking good for the short term given the escrow that expires 3 months from IPO. I thought IPO was overpriced so stayed away, even though I have followed Orion closely over the years and had intended to invest. Their indicative pricing was $4.30 to $5.70, so for me I'd want to see something closer to the middle of that range before being tempted, unless things change with the outlook. Interested in others thoughts regarding timing and price target for entry.
Is this anything to worry about? Orion faces hitch in USA.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/timaru-herald...es-hitch-in-US
The privacy issues are purely to do with how the purchaser of the system want it set up. Orion could lock it down fully or open it up.
Not a big issue in my opinion as those that spent the $80m won't want it to be opt in!
Cal Index news search generally positive but doesnt take too many 'bad stories' to get people upset, even if the problem is the users
Like this women
http://www.worldprivacyforum.org/201...-implications/
O.K. - don't intend to get into a lengthy discussion around the meaning of "tanking" ... I admit, there are lots of definitions depending on the context, and I agree that many of them sound more serious than what I had in mind:
what I found as meaning of "tanking" after a brief Google search:
1) to put or keep in a tank
2) to move like a tank, esp heavily and rapidly
3) to defeat heavily
4) to fail, esp commercially
5) to fail intentionally (part in sports)
6) A security, sector or market is said to "be tanking" while it is on its way down (from Investopedia).
What I had in mind was definition number 6 ... OHE is going down for the last couple of weeks - and nearly back to its IPO price.
However (not just) in the spirit of the season more than happy to see you replacing the verb "tanking" with another verb which (in your view) better describes the price trend. Any proposals?
More on the importance of Genomics
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news...ectid=11379312
Regarding privacy issues raised on ST
Will individuals really decide that their privacy on line is more important than their health ?
Maybe the health professionals will need to educate their patients on its importance.
Individual genomics is less important,group genomics will be more important.The issue will be who owns this information and can access it
For the health insurers it is all about risk.I would suggest they will limit their cover depending on the individuals genomics.If individuals opt out then it seems logical they will get reduced cover ?
More on the importance of Genomics
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news...ectid=11379312
Regarding privacy issues raised on ST
Will individuals really decide that their privacy on line is more important than their health ?
Maybe the health professionals will need to educate their patients on its importance.
Individual genomics is less important,group genomics will be more important.The issue will be who owns this information and can access it
For the health insurers it is all about risk.I would suggest they will limit their cover depending on the individuals genomics.If individuals opt out then it seems logical they will get reduced cover ?
Slightly OT, but this is going to be a major social issue in the future; do we allow insurance companies such as ACC, SouthernCross etc. to discriminate based on genetic markers, or is the current system acceptable? Given we do not fully understand the interplay between seemingly unrelated genes, embarking on such a programme at this juncture is dangerous.
Why would it be OT Zaphod?
Don't health insurers already 'discriminate' /have differential premiums based on health records & age ?
Isn't it all about risk & user pays ?
Regarding understanding the interplay between seemingly unrelated genes that is what I understand what the Orion Health software will enable the different interest groups to investigate.
Yes, insurance companies do discriminate on this basis and are granted an exemption in NZ under the Human Rights Act to do so, however this type of discrimination occurs at a very high level (e.g. age bands) and is generally viewed by society as acceptable. Discrimination at the much lower genetic level, especially when based upon an incomplete understanding of the interplay of genes, raises a number of social issues that could even affect participation in genetic research itself.
Acts have been passed in many jurisdictions across the world banning such discrimination, but not in NZ.
Surely the forex change recently would more than compensate for any lower receipts?
Quarterly reporting a bugger eh
Hope $25m cash burn a quarter doesn't last too long
Is this why they refused to give forecast in the IPO.
Anybody listen in conference call
Share price seems to have fallen more since .. Nobody believe the excuses?
Hmmm..so much for the IPO of 2014, what an anti-climax :t_down:
Looks like my IPO comparison with GTK was more similar than I realised; now including the obligatory post IPO bad news soon after listing and share dive.
Raised a few eyebrows when they refused to nominate a forecast. First IPO I can remember that has done that. A forecast however bull**** is a useful yardstick to measure the trust levels to afford directors. Unless you are an evangelist or a lifer it should be a requirement for assessment. Don't know much about Orion's strategy as I stayed clear due to various factors but some indication of when it is likely to hit profitability would be extremely useful. Relying on pure capital gains has its risks when the growth music stops.
They are indeed kiora, but I would say with good reason, unfortunately.....
looked into buying these shares but a few things did make me doubt and when I am not sure, I would rather wait and see. I think this is going to be a of a bumpy ride for shareholders, hope I am wrong for their sake....
Which brokers were principals for the IPO?
So the adverse impact this time was the iphone effect
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11394467
Adverse 42 times in the prospectus .....must be more to cone
So this March quarter not going to be too flash either
While receipts from customers are traditionally slower in the third quarter of each financial year they were lower than expected in the third quarter of FY 2015 due to slower contract closures and billings in North America. Management expect this trend to continue in the fourth quarter of FY 2015. In addition receipts from customers were adversely affected by the on-going planned transition from perpetual licences to subscription contracts.
Refusing to make a forecast at all should have rung serious alarm bells for any astute investor. Surely they had a business plan for at least the next year and a range of sales outcomes...whatever happened to the old fashioned notion of picking the most conservative forecast and beating it ? Why so adverse to that ?
There is somethng innately wrong when the CEO had been heavily focused on research and development. I repeat, research and development?
So the guessing game will start: What price will the cash issue be in 12 months? $5, $4 or $3? Three would be nice especially if one sold a chunk at $5.60. One things for sure all these soft wear outfits always need more cash than they ever think they will to get them through their early days of growth ; think XRO, etc. The more positive the story the more cash is usually needed. Oh so familiar.
Oh so true. I see that the CEO is VERY confident that everyone will buy the upgraded version, and even invoked the mighty Apple name...
The quietly added he'll be doubling R&D staff! If anyone is in doubt about the bottomline, you can rest assured now...
PROFITS WILL NOT BE SEEN AGAIN FOR QUITE SOME TIME!
Looks like yet another Xero-style model, without the massive growth prospects. Better start ploughing social media, sucking up to VC suitors and making sector-altering, 'beautiful software', because that's what he is asking for!
Should I buy this one now or MJP at 40c AUD ?
Oh, a truer word is rarely spoken.
Look, this company is undoubtedly successful but they have chosen to float at a risky time. They are developing and hope to rollout a new product, most of their customer they will hope will upgrade. So it's hardly surprising that their development costs have skyrocketed, and their earnings are unstable. But they rely on hope.
This is a classic case of a company who needs public investment to take the next step. It is not about their historical performance. Some have bought into an IT Industry 'next gen' story. They may make it, then again they may not. Even if they do, they will take longer than most investors patience, imho. So it's ultra speculative, and at a price that is above many 'sure bets' on the NZX.
The other thing people might want to consider is that this management, and board, are new to the market, they are not accustomed to the outcomes of failing to meet forecasts. Their management like lots of IT companies, carry a sales target, or revenue target (or if they're a bit more mature, a profit target, but most don't). Those management reluctantly agree to 'stretch targets' .. why, because they feel they have to in order to conform, and because of greed .. if they make it, they also make a handsome bonus.
But if they fail to meet those optimistic targets, as they have, they might not earn their bonus, but the board has to deal with the reality of failure ... yes, failure to achieve their forecasts ... to the public. It's a big step going from being self suffficient to ticking all the boxes of public listing.
Hardly surprising though... looping back to the emphasis on a whole new 'next gen' product, those poor sales persons are facing an 'upgrade inertia' problem.
So I think that the IPO was overbought and the company overpriced .. because what you have ahead of you is not the same company that got you here. It's a company betting on the next-gen product, hence the huge costs surge. This means it will take time for their customer base to upgrade.
Time for growth was never a factor in the IPO. It darn well is now though!
BAA
From the PEB thread,link from MAC
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/31/us...ents.html?_r=1
:)
Sub-$5 today. You heard it here first ;)
Apparently management had fairly well-informed 'expectations' though.
Firstly, good on them for admitting the results were poor. They could have said nothing, or even presented them as a triumph - and who'd have known?
But why didn't they disclose their expectations at offer time?
There is a wealth of experience lurking here indeed, Xerof.
And it's good to restate the obvious from time to time against the tide of market sentiment unlike the NZX itself which imo has now being managed to maximise profits for the operator rather than a balance with care for investors.
Best to steer clear of the NXT market!
Statement of the year in 2014 : "NZX chief executive Tim Bennett told the audience gathered at the firm's Grafton head office for yesterday's listing ceremony that Orion's IPO was probably the most significant event in New Zealand's capital markets this year".
It's not the NZX's job to steer investors away from bubbly stocks, it's their job to facilitate a fair exchange that allow buyers and sellers to transact in a fair manner, as well as making sure the companies are playing by the rule. If people are willing to pay up, it's really their choice :)
Great attitude to drive NZ investors out of the market and into properties.
No wonder the likes of PLus SMS, Snakk, Feltex, finance company bonds etc proliferate in the NZ market!
Go over to other countries and observe the strict rules they put in place to protect investors. Here the NZX regulates itself!
it probably was. Signalled very large privately (predominately by 1 person) held company finally looking to the markets for expansion capital. Haven't had that in ages nd hopefully we see more (though at a better price with better short and longer term prospects). He didn't say it would be a good investment. That isn't his job.
Very true - you can float a rusty bucket, a smelly decomposing Barramundi or a slippery poisonous snake if you like. What does the NZX care? Mr Bennett in his comments below forgot to add that anything goes as far as the NZX and the NXT are concerned.
Orion should have had to issue forecasts to be listed - that's my take on the pathetic state of the NZX whose sole focus is making money.
NZX Chief Executive Officer Tim Bennett says the addition of Orion Health to the NZX Main Board is a further demonstration of the opportunities for growing companies to gain the support of New Zealand investors.
"The listing of Orion Health today demonstrates the effectiveness of the New Zealand capital markets. Since it was formed, Orion Health has had access to private equity and now the public markets which has provided it the capital to rapidly grow the business at each stage of its development."
Well - not quite yet, but given the information they gave about the next quarter, I am rather confident they will get there rather sooner than later while they keep burning their cash.
Might be sensible if they are asking their share holders for more money while the SP is still on lofty heights (following XRO and PEB); Who knows, where the SP will go if they first burn up all their precious cash?
Is this stock available to be shorted?
So, yesterday was the dead cat bouncing. Now, how long is the full slide?
How long is a piece of string? It could go on for days (WHS had 9 straight days of losses) or just today.
Watch the charts carefully for oversold situation with high volume hammer as the decider for a short-term reversal. Someone will eventually find value in this stock at SOME price!
Ouch. Lesson learnt - don't believe the hype. lol
Stumbled across this:
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/n...-hhs/22765699/
Headlines from the paper version:
"Digital Medicine fraught with risk says Doctors"
"Doctors are warned by the federal government that they'll soon be penalized for not using electronic medical records, prompting a backlash from those who say the technology is fraught with problems".
"The govt has been handing out $30 BILLION in incentives to help doctors install and use these digitized patient records to improve patient care".
"A group of 37 medical societies led by the American Medical Society sent a letter to Health and Human Services last month saying the certification program is headed in the wrong direction ad that today's electronic record systems are cumbersome, decrease efficiency and most importantly, can present safety problems to patients.
48.1% of doctors according to a survey have adopted some form of electronic health records.
"Physicians passionately despise their electronic health records" says Lexington physican Steve Stack. "We will use technology quickly when it works....electronic health records don't work right now"
"Govt incentives are capped at about $44,000 per doctor for systems that cost at least $100,000 and often closer to $200,000".
"There are hundreds of companies selling systems that often don't communicate with each other. Compounding the problem, there's no requirement that suppliers improve flawed technology".
"A 2013 AMA/RAND study found electronic health records (EHR) are a leading cause of physician dissatisfaction. They are being "pushed down our throats"".
"Some critics says the FDA should regulate systems the way they do for other devices".
So really for me the question is, where does Orion sit in all this. Is their product so good they are on the cusp of a huge opportunity?? Or are they one of the many peddling systems that are unpopular and unwieldy for doctors??
"Even most critics recognize electronic health records are the future".
NO luck man, wish i have a way to short it.... want to do it badly but couldn't find anything :(
I'm a holder and happy to sit this puppy in my bottom draw for a few years and just play it out, not work selling out now IMO, I'll just stay in for the ride.
Yes :) & bringing forward Feb 2016 estimate :)
Just came (in a totally unrelated research) across CERNER (http://cerner.com/). Looks like that they operate in a similar space as OHE, however much larger (MarketCap US$23B - and just bought Siemens Healthcare). I realise that they focus as well on medical hardware, but their product line "population health management" (http://cerner.com/solutions/population_health/) with their "healtheintent platform sounds on the first imression quite similar to what OHE tries to do (http://cerner.com/solutions/populati...ealthe_intent/). As well reading through their "hospital and health systems" feels a bit like deja vu (after having read the OHE prospectus some time ago).
A bit surprised that I couldn't find so far any reference to Cerner in this thread.
Question (assuming some shareholders researched this massive competing organisation before investing into OHE): What competitive advantages have OHE compared to CERN? What are the risks for OHE? Are these risks already priced into the current SP?
More weakness today, followed by very thin bidders ...:scared:
looks like more cheaper stocks on the way available for anyone that wants to get into this thing.
My pre-IPO calculations comparing it to GTK pegged it at about $600m capitalisation, so that would be a 374c price.
I'd also pay a premium over this calculation for Orion. But there is the downside of the latest announcements, and the 5% upside of any forex moves since IPO (as OHE would have a large amount of contracts in USD)
Overall, sub-$4 is my estimate, say $3.80, though I doubt the share price would ever fall this far.
They will be in a cash burn phase for atleast another year IMO, we should see reasonable growth/product improvements within this period, in 18 months I expect we will see significant growth and begin to see the cash burn reduce and after this point beginning to turn cash positive. I have been collecting since the IPO and I know its overpriced at the moment (and has been) but I'm a firm believer in their product and story. Happy to hold (at a lost currently) and continue to collect. The potential market share is massive and from talking to health professionals they firmly believe a tool such as what Orion offer would be an absolute asset if implemented. My2c, DYOR.
Top 4 HIE vendors for 2015....Orion Health
http://www.healthcareitnews.com/news...e-vendors-2015