Here is a 5Y chart with the trend channel from 2011 and the 2016 channel. Looks like the target could be somewhere between 6,300-6,500. Risk off sentiment looks as though it will continue into December if not longer.
Attachment 8428
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Here is a 5Y chart with the trend channel from 2011 and the 2016 channel. Looks like the target could be somewhere between 6,300-6,500. Risk off sentiment looks as though it will continue into December if not longer.
Attachment 8428
Holy hell, I knew when my intuition said "get the hell out" I should have cashed up. Still up but not out.... to complete JeremyALDs song..."free falling now I'm, free falling...."
I tend to disagree.
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Increase the granularity significantly ie. the past 6-9 months
I am not talking chalk & cheese differences, they are subtle. But at a transition point IMO the capital index gives a clearer picture
Looking at your graph, it appears that you can already see the magnitude of the recent NZX capital index fall appears greater than NZX50 decline (my reason #3)
You should also find the capital index peak occurred earlier than NZX50 peak (my reason #1), and was lower (my reason #2)
Go back a couple of pages in this tread and read the posts BaaBaa and myself
But everyone has a different preference when analysing data, so if you prefer using NZX50 data, go right ahead.
My point is that it's irrelevant what data you use, the differences are immaterial and do not provide a different conclusion to the current situation.
In actual fact, both charts show September 7th as peak for both NZCI and NZX50 so I'd be double checking the data.
Regardless, both indicate solid formation of downtrends. Which, IMO is set to continue given the global risk-off environment we are in.
I took big hit recently
my holdings:
SKC: bang!
TIL: bang!
SUM: bang!
SCL: not bad
However during this on-going correction some stocks are finally close to "realistic" price.
I am interested in RYM IFT EBO FRE CNU... if they drop more i will deploy new long term capital
Should have sold, when the charts told you to ...;)
Anyway, depending on your risk appetite it might be sensible to wait until we know the outcome of the US election before deploying new capital. Sure - if Hillary wins, than a good time to buy might be now, but what if Trump wins?