http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6416.0 Melbourne house prices still doing Okay(ish), up 3.6% for the year to June 30 2016. Just as well RYM are not in Perth or Darwin !
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http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6416.0 Melbourne house prices still doing Okay(ish), up 3.6% for the year to June 30 2016. Just as well RYM are not in Perth or Darwin !
For me its short term trend is not that clear. In other words it is directionless. Still its long term growth is intact. In addition, in the short run, there should be demand for defensive stocks. Value is one of the factors that I like to consider.As long as we see strong market, investors may create demand for this stock as well. I have kept under my radar now. If it drop to around $5-6 levels there will be many buyers. I don't think it will drop to that level in the short run unless we see some big sell-off in stocks or bear market.
RYM is not directionless imo, it has broken down (major) below its rising trend line support, which puts it back into the range trading mode that it has been in for some time previously. Right on the 200 MA support. Risky hold for capital focused investors right now, otherwise for buy and hold's, no worries it has a great future.
RYM buys its fifth Melbourne site at Coburg, an established suburb 10k north of Melbourne CBD.
http://www.rymanhealthcare.co.nz/the...e-in-melbourne
I am right in thinking that they are not actually building anything in Melbourne at the moment?
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Correct, Tiger.
Wheelers Hill completed; Brandon Park awaiting council approval; others are recent land acquisitions.
I agree
Brandon Park purchase was announced in May 2014... almost two and a half years ago. The holdup due to the reasons stated in my previous post. http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...l=1#post636918
The remaining 3 Melbourne purchases all announced this calendar year (in Feb, Sept, and Oct).
A crash in NZ house prices will have little impact on RYM's bottom line in my view. Here's why:
1. How bad would a crash be? More than 13% down would be unprecedented in recent history (last 45 years on this graph). With interest rates staying down and immigration staying up, I doubt a crash of any real magnitude will happen within the next 12 months. Stricter bank lending criteria might dampen it a bit.
Attachment 8358
2. How much of a drop before selling one's house would it take before having to visit the bank to move into a retirement unit? More than 20% for independent living according to the data.. and about 50% for serviced.
Attachment 8359
3. Even if the above occurred, would that dampen resales? Not in my view. Demand for care beds is beginning to outstrip supply due to the demographics. Demand for retirement living precedes demand for care beds.
Attachment 8360
On top of that, the average 7 year tenure per resident irons out the impact of the housing market's rises and falls over 7 years. Not once in NZ history has it been cheaper to by a house 7 years after any given date.
4. Will a housing crash, should it occur, drive RYM's share price down through the floor? Most probably.
Lower hose price means lower NTA, which means lower SP. What I'm wondering is if it will effect revenue enough in the short term to cause risk to the business. 😃