$3.3m + $4.2m = $7.5m is the HY2015 EBITDA earnings from Australia before licence fees and less investment in UK market development of $4.2m and the declared 'corporate costs' which reduce EBITDA by $5.2m.
If we assume that 1/4 of corporate costs relate to Australia, while the other 3/4 go to developing China, UK and USA, then underlying EBITDA for Australia is:
$7.5m - (0.25($5.2m))= $6.2m
Since Australia is the only developed market we can assume that all the Depreciation and Amortization relates to that market.
So NPBT = $6.2m - $0.9m = $5.3m
Tax that result at 30% and you get NPAT of $3.71m. There are 660m shares on issue. So this gives 'annualised' earnings per share of:
2X $3.71m / 660m = 1.124cps
A reasonable growth multiple might be 20 if ATM finds itself an Australian only brand in the future.
So fair value for ATM Australia is.
20 x 0.01124 = 22.5c
At 56c, ATM is priced well in excess of Oz market only fair value. So there is a large amount of blue sky built into the share price already.
The plan is to spend $20m in the US over three years ( $US20m/(3 x 0.75) = NZD8.9m per year). They could only do that with current resources if the UK becomes self sustaining (loss in UK for HY2015 of $NZ4.1m). Not enough money to go around (only $9.9m in the bank as at December 2014 ). Cash resouces will be completely drained this year! The likelihood of a cash issue is getting stronger and stronger. ATM will be bankrupt within months if it doesn't do it.
My advice: Don't touch this until the cash issue is announced.
SNOOPY