Nothing unusual in this. Standard practice in opening every day in most stocks. Simply puts him at the front of the queue at matching price.
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I have 17249 which I find quite irritating. The result of accidently loading up two orders in the frenzy and then cancelling one half way through. In hindsight I lucked out because I got more than I had planned at 63 but I should have let it ride and picked up a round 20k. Makes it annoying when doing quick calculations.
Depth seems at odds either side this morning, looks like there will be so major fluctuation.
I've been in and out a few times (got in at .75), a stop loss (that I'd forgotten I had!) forced my hand on the rights issue tumble so right now I'm looking for good re-entry and trading points.
I would like to get back in with a big volume at around 1.30 but I don't know if that opportunity will arise, unlikely to today but could next week on no news and people profit taking / repositioning. Biggest risk to this type of behaviour is clearly more positive announcements which would annihilate my position!
Below 1.50? Maybe, I think the odds of it closing above aren't very good.
Got a bit nervous sold some at $1.55, all good though the most expensives ones I bought
were 74 cents Monday morning. Am hoping to get them back later in the day, if not I've still got plenty.
Which share do we feel is riskier, PEB or XRO?
I would probably lump them in the same boat. Both have enormous potential and both have signed high level agreements with major players in their chosen arenas. They are both raising or have raised expansion capital.
It all comes down to execution and both seems to have proven leaders who are following through on stated plans. Just my feelings.
Thanks. I have more money in XRO, and I feel it's less risky, as I feel when Peter Thiel et al invested at $18.15, they would expect a lot more than double their money back, perhaps a takeover at $60 or something.
With PEB, it's driven by hype and news. If we get a big VC investment in PEB, even if it's just $20m, I would be more comfortable investing more. Long term, the return might be better than XRO at today's price, but just don't want to buy at say $1.50, when in a few weeks/days/hours it drops down to $1.
Bit up and down today. There's resistance at 145 and its popped back up to 150. Major sell at 160 according to depth on DB
Was going to sell my RYM and ETF to buy back PEB today, but given that it is probably over hyped, and more risky, decided against it.
And a new article in the NZ Herald... http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11146222
Execution risk definitely. They can't afford to stuff it up ! How many tests are they set up to do & in an auditable way ? Logistically a lot for them to get through but I'm sure they have a plan !
To play Devil's Advocate, the procrastinators on PEB may be thinking it's too good to be true. I don't call any of the news coming from PEB "Hype." I see factual statements coming from them highlighting big steps being accomplished on a longer journey. I'm eagerly looking for a way to expand on my holding before the deadline date for the 55c deal.
In it for the long term as previously stated and desperately trying not to peek at the price every 30 minutes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Surely funds in this situation would have to be selling wouldn't they? Everything else being equal from the 31/8/13 report then PEB is now over 50% of the portfolio. I know it is a high risk portfolio but that is taking it to the extreme isn't it...? It is still a Kiwisaver fund after all.
As someone who has over the years gone from "Me buying shares = The major trigger for the next recession" through to Beginner in 2006 to Advanced Beginner earlier this year there is still a lot I don't know. PEB and this thread is definitely helping with the learning curve as it gives more questions to ask.
- What on earth is a "stop loss" and how do you implement one?
- How does this overnight business work? On Tuesday it closed at $1.06 but in the morning it opened at over $1.30. Why?
- Why does someone putting in a Buy offer at $1.90 get first preference at cheaper shares overnight?
<There's more but those are the ones I can think of at the moment>
A stoploss would be a pre determined level where you would cut your position. For disiplined traders !!!! Some systems allow you to set a level for it to automatically do this.
Overnight and in the morning a lot of press coverage on this stock brought it to the attention to a whole lot of new invvestors.
The system levels out the best buys and sells in the market so the highest bid will be set first on the buy side.
cheers S/L
Can someone please explain the 55c deal please! ?
Thanks
Thank you stoploss.
And another question. The ASB depth chart shows a list of buyers who want to buy at a low price and sellers who want to sell at a higher price. So how do sales occur between them?
Or is it a whole lot of other sellers who just charge in and say "sell at market price" so the top buyers get them or buyers who charge in and say "buy at market price" so they buy at the lowest seller's price?
Hold, hold and hold (for you again mossie if you have any left)! Reward is huge but as always still risk which seems to be diminishing at every announcement - (still however an unprofitable company) but the stars are aligning. Cf XRO - we are talking about companies in different industries but the biggy I see is PEB offers a product with much less competition and should be profitable soonish, and (competition is at least 5 years away) XRO has a lot of competition (some big some small) . I hold PEB, never held XRO and it's ridiculous price is nearly as hard to keep up with as this peb forum.
Have you read the announcement and the last 5-10 pages of this thread? What aspect of it do you not understand. For every 15 shares you hold, you can buy 2 at 55c each. If you don't want to buy, you can do nothing (dumb but the rest of us will love you for it) or you can sell. The shareprice should drop, in theory, in proportion to the new shares issues.
New cash will enable them to accelerate growth so expect them to triple in a 24h period once that happens ;)
You certainly do not get to buy at the lowest sellers price.Basically the system works out where it can match the most volume of trades by averaging out all the buys and sells that are inverse ( roughly ) In the ANZ/DB system it shows you a "match" or levelling price that this is going to occur at . I am not sure if the ASB system shows this , I think only the bids and offers ....
Is there a online broker in NZ other than ASB that can do stop loss and trigger orders? thanks
Hi Stoploss.....I've just started to use the DB system. I wonder if you could elaborate, particularly on the bit in bold and underlined. Before trading starts...I can see the matching occurring, but after things get underway I am not at all sure how to read the Bids and Asks columns to see the match occurring. Is my question clear ?
Cheers, RTM.
Also with the averaging process it actually takes quite a while to show up what your average buy price is. I bought some PEB the other day using this hoping for a quick trade. I put my buy in at $1.55 to get the average, but for about 40 minutes after it showed my trade had gone through at $1.55 until it later averaged down to $1.39.
So you need to be careful with that time element as well.
DISC; use ANZ
Another way to purchase your rights if you do not have the cash and don't want to miss out.
Go into O/D at your bank,or get very short term loan don't worry about how much interest you have pay, it will only be for a few weeks compared the return you will get if the SP is still around $1.50. No I do not recommend margin lending as a rule in this case it's a way to get what you need. When you have settled the purchase of rights sell enough to pay back your borrowing and show a healthy profit.
If this was to happen, the SP would jump again. But predicting when it will happen is a mugs game unless you have insider knowledge.
Again the current share price reflects a fundamental valuation of 5% market share in USA when we have no confirmation of significant sales, no idea about growth rates and they are asking us for more money to hire more sales people. 5% of USA sales is probably 3-4 years down the track according to PEBs target, yet I suspect most posters on here seem to think it will happen in the next announcement!
Buy at these levels with caution!
Increased my holdings significantly on today's drop into the 1.40's.
Seems like there is support building at 1.50. Still a lot of big orders pushing it above that this morning.
The potential expanded pipeline is also exciting - From the Herald article linked earlier:
"The company hopes to raise $20.5 million to continue the rollout of Cxbladder with two other similar tests, Cxbladder triage and Cxbladder predict, in the US and further research on alternative cancer tests.The company was initially looking at tests for five different cancers; bladder, gastric, colorectal, melanoma and endometrial.
"The long and short of it is that the bladder cancer test showed the most promising initial signs so we went with it. The refinery process included an 18-month, $1.6 million clinical trial, before it was approved for use earlier this year."
Have any of the test results of the additional cancers ever been published?
Especially as this is the first negative day we've had in a MASSIVE run. Gotta think a few of them were holding with a bit of a 'wait and see' attitude. I'm expecting a bit more downwards momentum, but still wayyy in the positive on this, as I'm sure everyone is :) So long term its just a very small bit off the top, which I'm sure will be made back soon enough.
There could also be buyers (those with patience) waiting for such a sell off. Watch the closing 15mins.
Yeah fair enough, you've got enough of a buffer to wear any retracements and if you're holding long on fundamentals then its not something you should worry about.
Personally I agree with Blobbles that the SP has risen to fast too quick on not amount of solid information. The insurance announcements are great for the company and obviously sales will materialise from these. However they will need several more of these big contracts in both the US and worldwide and it will also take some time for the tests to flow so to speak.
Great outlook on the whole in the long-term, however i'm banking on a retracement in the short-term and will consider buying more at a cheaper price. But to be honest with the like of Xero who knows in this market!
DISC: Side-lined.
Am I correct to say using this feature, if the prices are going down, and is sitting at $1, to prevent catching a falling knife, I can set a buy order of $1.20, with a $1.10 trigger, and if it keeps falling, my order won't be executed until it comes back up?
So instead of buying at $1 immediately when I put in a $1.20 order, it could fall to say 70 cents, and come back to $1.10, and my orders will be triggered and fulfilled up to $1.20, so I'm buying on the up trend?
Most of my sell signals that I use for a run like this have gone off. I think I'll start seriously looking again at around $1.20 - probably in a few weeks. Stocks will usually have quite a pullback after a run like this. Patience. The rights offer and any news could mess that plan up though obviously.
Disc: Not holding.
Well it may make sense when they announce their actual sales results in NOV. If you do well off US investor's optimism/europhoria then Kudos to you, but I after a run like this I can't really see her holding steady until the next announcement. Sooner or later profit-taking will kick in.
I was hoping/expecting it would go lower this afternoon. Want to rebuy what I sold this morning but don't want to pay more than 145.
Ah also is the reason for small volume bot or human trading used so it triggers people's trigger orders?
yes but you have to watch for gap up (or gap down with stop losses).
If you put in that $1.10 - $1.20 order n Tuesday night (when the close was ~$1) then you would have missed out as it opened on Wednesday on ~$1.50. So while it was above $1.10 to trigger your buying, it was above you limit of $1.20, so your order wouldn't have gone though. Re stop losses, look at what happened with DIL a couple of weeks ago and see how you may have missed out with a tight stop loss limit order
What I wanted to do with XRO, is when it was at about $19, I sold out one day, and thought if it goes down, I'll buy it back, if it goes above $20 I will buy it back too, but I had to watch it manually without trigger orders. Trigger orders can also be good for auto trading when resistance level is broken?
Hmmm, SP is down overall on the day but has recovered three times from reasonable downward pressure. Seems the support for this stock might not be allowing it to drop too much. Last hour will be interesting, could fling either way but i would pick a slight recovery rather than a retrenchment. Oh the tension. ; )
Rights issues do tend to weigh upon a stocks price until close to the ex date. I could be wrong (many times I have been before) but I'm figuring two trading days before the ex date of 5 Nov will be a good time to buy into this stock again..i.e. next Friday afternoon may be the best time.
Im currently tossing up whether to top up or not.
Thinking most likely there will be another rise on monday but then again the drop today could carry over to a drop on monday as well :/
Unless you are a trader, I don't think 145 and 149 makes a big difference. I would rather be sure than miss out.
Having said that, now that I have the trigger order funciton, I can always use it, so rather than buy at the current sell price, I can put a trigger for a higher price, and a buy order for a lower price.
I guess there's no real right and wrong in the different approaches, and I'm not sure if my "strategy" is even feasible, feel free to comment.
Is there anything that shows the current match price? Or do i have to manually work it out?
Well, that's fine so long as they think about doing the same thing and then do it just after I've bought my lot.
Blobbles, what I've observed before about other rights trading activities, is that if it's a popular stock (and this one surely is), the rights trading is unlikely to drive down the price of the head stock.
We'll see in 10 days or so.
BC
I think anyone who trades will be able to tell you the likely trajectory of a stock that has seen a 300% increase in 3 days and is now showing signs of dropping. Hell, you don't even need to be a trader... pretty much a screaming sell for traders out there, but the rights issue murkies the waters.
Happy to be proven wrong MAC. The amount of small trading going on over the past few days inclines me to think it is mainly traders doing what they do best rather than big overseas people or institutions. Until they start selling the product, I really can't see how a 300% increase is justified.
Oh and - do you think this deserves to be in the NZX50? I don't think it would get in there on current data, why? Because they aren't making revenue, as opposed to HNZ/DIL/ATM who are all there with a SP based on REVENUE, not hopes of revenue. ATM is already a $100 million a year revenue company, yet it is currently valued at almost the same as PEB, who have only a few million with hopes (admittedly high and very good hopes) of much more.
When they can prove they can sell, then they will be treated like a normal company. Until then I don't think they would allow a company onto the NZX50 based on IP and potential.
I don't think that is a factor and not sure if they have that much discretion. Will take a while for them to be included as they have to be above the thresholds for a certain period of time - I think someone mentioned 6 months - unless it is an obvious case (ie. MRP and MEL)
All this talk of catching falling knifes,and the price moving 5.10c on the day why bother if you have invested forget the price it will go up over time CHILL-OUT.
That's how the traders make money lol yes why bother
Thats definitely one way to approach it, as I have with Xero. But its still not the most comfortable thing watching a few grand sliced off your investment while the little voice says "push the button and it will all be rosey". Hence the addiction to viewing the SP on days like these.
Other end of the scale, I have SUM shares too and actually forgot I owned them for about a month! yawn.
Well said.
If both ATM and PEB were earning revenues of $100m, the difference would be the vast gap in profit margin between the two. A couple of dollars on a bottle of milk versus several hundred dollars on a cxbladder test.
Rather than the dramatic rise in the shareprice over the last week, I thing I would have preferred a more gradual rise over a longer period, not that I'm unhappy. But the volitility can be a little nerve racking.
However, there is one thing to keep in mind. For those who have followed this company over a long period, the shareprice has always languished around 20c, give or take fluctuations of 10c either side. By a long period I'm talking over a decade. All during that time the company has gone about its business of researching and developing products to a point where they are only now just entering markets. Until this year, and in particular the last fortnight, virtually no value has been placed on the progress the company has made in the run up to commercialsation. It's only now that the market has realised the value that has been accruing over the last ten or more years and the shareprice has finally caught up.
It also seems that cxbladder has been accepted in the US a lot faster than may have been anticipated, even by the company itself. From only having opened the Hershey lab in March, and having sales people on the ground since July, they have made their first sales and signed two major deals, with more to come. If they manage to sign up Medicare amd medicaid, and I think they probably will, then we really will be away laughing.
Something of importance that may have been lost amongst all the fantastic news this week is the acknowledgement that PEB now have approval to sell in Spain, ref NZ Herald this morning.
The PEB website still has the status for Europe as;
“In preparation for the launch of Cxbladder in Spain through our commercial partner Oryzon, applications for CE Mark registration and compliance are currently underway”.
Please correct me if I’m wrong but this must mean PEB now have achieved CE mark registration in Europe, not a small milestone in itself for a small company located as far from Europe as can be.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11146222
While ATM might only sell bottles worth "a couple of dollars", they have the potential to sell 10's of millions of bottles!
I don't want to bag PEB at all, they are doing a fantastic and I partly agree with your statement of the SP only just catching up to its IP. I take issue with the idea that they are now "accepted" in the US, they are accepted as a possible seller of a product, they are NOT accepted in terms of people actually buying this product or doctors recommending it. There is most certainly a difference between the two, it is the difference between being on a supermarket shelf ready for sale and being in peoples shopping bags on the way home. ATM is in peoples fridges, we know this, PEB is not being sold to patients in large numbers - yet, as far as we know. That would represent acceptance and we don't know if that will happen yet either. Yet somehow we value PEB the same as ATM. That doesn't sit well with me and hints at overvalue and risk.
Hi, RTM, once trading is under way if you click on a stock in your watch list make sure you have the depth option selected. You should then be able to see the bids and offers for the desired stock.The last trade/ trades should be showing on the right of the screen . Once trading is up and running there is no further match as such until the close at 5 pm .So the price action is derived from participants crossing the bid/offer spread. I am sure they have an 0800 number give them a call to talk you through it if this makes no sense ...
My sentiments exactly, picked up some today & now chilling out. Also did anyone else note the comment at the end of the NZ Herald article:
"According to Darling, the next move for the company will be expanding into Asia and Europe. The move is already underway with approval to now sell in Spain, which has the highest rate of bladder cancer in the world."
Let the good times roll
Amongst all this excitement that we have witnessed lately, I would like to take a moment to be a boring old fart, remind some of the speculators in particular what PEB is all about.
You might like to read up a little on bladder cancer (e.g. here: http://www.healthpoint.co.nz/special...ladder-cancer/).
I cannot claim to have helped PEB develop their tests in any meaningful way (I believe Hancocks and others can) and I am delighted to make a profit like anyone, but I hope we not be too blinded by the prospect of $$ to remember the reason why PEB's product & services need to exist. If you are weighing up the rights issue, perhaps the best reason to take up the offer is that it is an opportunity to help make these tests more widely available (assuming you believe this is genuinely a step-change from existing procedures for patients).
End of boring old lecture!