Correct me if im wrong, but wasn't the shares oversubscribed? and everybody was scaled back heavily?? wouldnt that in itself mean that for the very first few weeks/months of trading there will still be some residual demand??
That leads me to think that with no news coming out, the only reason the shares have taken a pull back was because there was a bit of speculation to a quick buck immediately on the usual ipo pop.
I can still see significant sell orders that have been put through on the day of IPO and are still standing at around 1.70, some of which i've seen move their orders down and down..
Also i don't know what the regulatory rules around post ipo commitments by institutional investors and underwriters in NZ, but usually there's an allotment for repurchases after ipo to keep the price atleast above ipo level for a good period of time post ipo... i can't see how a PE company would overlook putting this risk management measure in place, specially with their 45% stake locked in for a while, it just makes perfect sense to do.. so taking all these points into account, i highly doubt we will see price going below 1.55.