Would be a positive signs to see directors buying
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Would be a positive signs to see directors buying
I think ATM directors get all the shares they need and more through remuneration, more than most.
It is interesting though that ATM were capital raising effortlessly in December 2012 at 50c.
Revenues then were 18k, should be about 70k in three weeks by reckoning. They had one open market now they have three or four, they had two products now the have, well I've lost count, they operated in one country now in three or four, and preliminary human trials have since put the science a big step closer.
How low before it drops out of nzx50
45 cents should provide solid support and arrest the fall on oversold territory. I'd like to know whose shorting this stock aggressively. Another SSH from Milfie due out soon?
More than 10% drop in two days. Wow! I thought this would only happen in mining companies
All I can say, someone is upto something....
Current price makes the Craig's Placement at 82c last April look pretty sick.
I'm buying at these levels but there is a pretty persistent seller at 46c
Couta, what differentiates those who buy for spec reasons vs those who sell for spec reasons? Nothing, except they are on opposite sides of a trade!
I prefer not to subscribe to the usual market psychology of blue = good and red = bad. Instead, psychology should be applied to thinking of the market as a constant source of possibilities on either side of the ledger.
I prefer shorting to be available as it leads to a more balanced and fair price for stocks in the long run. One only has to see the difference of how bubbles behave on the NZX vs ASX to see what I am talking about.
Don't think of them in a negative light; if you believe in the company, the story hasn't changed and the fundamentals are sound, you should see it as a positive to buy more at a cheaper price (or a possibility to profit fron shorting if you dabble in CFDs!).
Yin and yang; negative and positive; BALANCE! :)
Another 1 million volume thro' today so far...
Just looking at the google a2milkometer
http://www.google.co.nz/trends/explo...m&cmpt=date&tz=
Debate --> awareness, in the UK seems to be generally of the rise. Bit of a kick up since the preliminary human trial results last year possibly helped along by the re-launch marketing.
ATM tell us that they will be monthly cashflow positive (profitable) in the UK prior to FY16 (June 2016).
I just have inkling though that it may be earlier than that, nothing really tangible to justify that, just a bit of hunch from the increased activity on the health & wellness blog sites, and the marketing activity and feedback on the ATM website and facebook etc.
https://nzx.com/files/attachments/199456.pdf
The current weakness is possibly an institution selling down.
If so, often a good time to buy IMO. The insto(s) can be selling for any number of reasons, not necessarily related to the fortunes of the company.
Disc. Bought today at 46c
Been revisiting a few interesting things today actually, here's another;
You know the drop in Synlait farm gate milk prices was from $8.31 last year to probably $4.40 this year (a drop of 47%), and the drop in global whole milk power prices during the ATM HY reporting period was a hefty 37% too.
That must surely be translating now into really quite good input cost savings for ATM under their farm gate contract supply terms. Noting that supermarket retail price points for a2 milk have not altered, aside from within the UK where they have gone up.
Thus, wouldn’t be at all surprised to see a tice tick up in gross margins at HY15 reporting actually
Attachment 6740
The retail price increase in the UK is per diagram below, shows good confidence in the UK market too IMO.
Attachment 6741
http://www.interest.co.nz/rural-data...payout-history
Put order of 45c to buy, not successful. wait next Monday.
:ohmy: Actually it is a drop of 47%. The $4.40 is 53% of $8.31.
$8.31 is 88.9% higher than $4.40 (to bring in MAC's calculation)
Meanwhile $0.46 is a drop of 52% from the $0.96 close less than a year ago and thus needs to rise by 109% to get back there.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
We may well quite probably be looking at lower farm gate costs more than compensating for AUD losses also, certainly not something I think the media have clicked onto just yet going by todays commentary.
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU150...new-record.htm
If COGS are lower by 15% due to lower farm gate prices, not at all unrealistic I think, it would more than offset probable AUD losses this time around.
Drop in COGS at 15% = HY14 COGS $34.8 x Growth rate 30% x 15% = $6.7M
My anticipated HY15 AUD adjustment as per below (excluding one offs) = $5M
Anyway enough from me, wait and see in a few week’s time I suppose.
I've been following it on Facebook a fair bit and have noticed the announcements that aside from just launching in Sainsburys, ATM is now being stocked in Waitrose and Morrisons. If you check their FB page, there's a lot of activity and I'm just really pleased to see them getting out there and spreading the word. As many Kiwis have lived in the UK too, it's easy just to like some of ATM pages and get the message to any friends you have there.
That's why the marketing cost went up, but I am sure it's going to make an impact.
Attachment 6745
__________________
did this news drive A2 sp down?
http://www.stockandland.com.au/news/...t/2722804.aspx
Finally an answer of sorts. Forgot to mention after a clear and sustained breech of my 15% mandatory stop loss limit I quite my very small holding recently in the low 50's. I only dipped a toe in the water and lost a toenail so no big deal as far as I'm concerned. I might regret it one day but there are many other compelling and better articulated / understood opportunities out there. Good luck to holders.
Hardly. Very few people would have been aware of that article, and anyway that guy's problems really have nothing whatever to do with A2. They're related to a totally separate issue, the imposition of new rules about RAW milk sales. He's on an utterly different tangent, organics, and apparently doesn't have a contract to supply A2 milk. If he did, he'd probably be doing very nicely.
My personal and unprofessional guess is that the slide in SP has to do with holders (either institutions or traders) quitting or cutting down their holdings in advance of the Australian launch, for some presumably calculated reason. As a longterm holder, albeit a slightly unhappy one at the moment, I see it as showing the market is now operating more freely than it was for a period when it seemed someone was trying to manipulate the daily closing price. It's a good buying opportunity IMO.
Agree unless there is some insider information spinning around the drop in price will be a big holder dropping holding and the panickers selling off. If there is a bad report in a few weeks time then you know inside info was behind it. IMHO. Otherwise as usual price will be determined by how well they are making progress in markets.
that link refers to raw milk so dont think it would impact A2 at all as they dont do raw milk.
Possibly some guys are trying to drive the price down to accumulate more at lower prices prior to ASX listing. Must be triggering stoplosses and getting weak holders to sell. Would be great to pick the bottom. 40cents??? or is someone wanting to buy the company......strange but something brewing
With the major shareholders in ATM having agreed in 2012 to capitalise the company for growth and expansion at 50c, and the concurrent drop in SP with ASX listing timing, and the amount of dairy sector M&A going on in Australia, who would be at all surprised right now if ATM announced that they had been approached with a takeover offer ?
My thoughts exactly KW. Maybe they´ve realised that ATM has very successfully marketed their product in Australia to health aware consumers and possibly drawn a lot of previous non milk drinkers back to drinking milk. Trying to crush A2MC with silly advertising like they tried last year has probably been a complete failure for them and may even backfire.
So it may well be a case of it "better being inside the tent pissing out than outside pissing in" and then try to replicate the Australian success in other countries with an ever increasing product range.
I hope not a takeover though as I would really like to stay in this one for at least 3-5 more years :)
someone traded 359 shares for four times within an hour time, can anyone explain why like that? I wouldn't be able to recover the fees paid to brokerage :confused:
https://www.forsythbarr.co.nz/market...NZX/ATM#trades
I think it’s fair to say Iceman that it absolutely totally backfired as evidenced by ATM having achieved 38% revenue growth in the first four months of HY15. But then, 'if you can’t beat em perhaps then swallow them'.
It may well indeed be a matter of international business maturity that ATM have, by special meeting, allocated a new spot at the board table for a new non-resident director, I wouldn’t doubt the need for that, the business is growing very fast and very successfully.
Equally that spot could make for representation for an incoming large minority or majority shareholder. Coinciding with an ASX listing probably is just coincidental, but it’s not outside realms of possibility that it could also be a matter of putting stepping stones in place.
Perhaps those with more experience could clarify as to what point takeover discussions evolve or graduate to a point whereby an announcement to the market becomes necessary. Clearly at a point an offer is made, but perhaps with shades of grey up until that time.
Typically there must be months of due diligence required leading up to any offer formation.
That's not unusual. More often in asx,you can see 1 or a few shares traded. I think it's the institutes try to push up or down the price.
Yep a buyout would be bad news for those of us that are holding at higher entry prices, a premium buyout offer would be nowhere near 90c forcing many to realize paper losses prematurely. The best thing for us in that situation would be a share swap offer in the purchasing companies shares.All speculation of course as most talk of company takeovers is just that and rarely comes to anything.
We shouldn't be so sure about that Couta.
If Freedom were going to sell below 97c they would have done so, they had ample opportunity to do so last year.
Milford were buying at circa 90c at one point last year, presumably valuing the company much higher than that, the outlook for the company and valuations have not altered much at all since then.
Analyst ‘price targets’ have remained in the 80 to 86c range for the last six months, I would suggest their valuations are higher than that again.
My valuation is $1.10, they wouldn’t get my shares willingly for under $1.35, and I suspect the major shareholders would have similar figures.
By shorting the stock, if indeed that is what has occurred, a prospective buyer is messing with the sentiment of small retail shareholders so as to make it easier to mop them up, they might still get them at the same price as the big boys, but they are more likely to sell if they have first been spooked.
Couta, you for one should not value this company so lowly! ATM is worth much, much more than the current SP, especially to a large buyer in the very lucrative dairy sector. If you don't believe that ATM can ever attain a buyout with a huge premium, just ask ex-Fisher & Paykel shareholders about that offer.
Have faith. The NZX can be extremely dumb at times because of its lack of liquidity! :)
Mayday, this is an insto or broker breaking up an "iceberg" order into small packets to get the best possible price on market. Presumably, such a larger order has already gone through darkpools and not been taken up, so thd order goes on market to be sold. They can do this cheaply because the entity selling/buying does not pay brokerage for each order (they will have a monthly subscription fee or pay a one off for the entire sell/buy order, no matter how many individual blocks are put through).
If you understand nothing I have just said, visit a lubrary and get reading (or find a broker who will talk your ears off) ;)
Yes, it reminds of FPAppliance days. I sold out of frustration as Sprice started dropping, within days of selling. SP trippled. There was a takeover offer.
Another yes. Looking up old records I made 48 buy transactions of FPA from 39c and up . But had to sell to the big...H... for well over $1. Did not like the way big....H..... conduct their bussiness, it's probably worth equivellant to over $4 a share now selling their fridges into the 30,000 outlets in China, but thats another story. Sorry I got side tracked on FPA. Not going to do the the same with ATM. Holding on tight.
Just noticed today that New World in Molesworth Street (Thorndon, Wellington) has started stocking A2 But they're charging $5.99 a bottle. I'll be having a word with them about that.
This situation is certainly starting to raise my interest. OBV is down by around 10% of issued shares in the last 12 months, yet selling SSH notices are absent (apart from AMP). Obviously the total shares traded in this time are much larger than the 10% of issued shares. One would think we would be seeing some SSH notices.
Shorting is certainly a possibility. Its has been a steady grind downwards in the past 12 months. I am unsure of the SSH requirements when it comes to shorting in NZ - maybe someone can chime in on that? Shorters never really own the shares, so is it required for them? And is it required for whom they have borrowed the shares from?
The intention of shorting to then acquire the company cheaply is an interesting thought. I do wonder about the legalities of doing this however.
It could of course just be that several instos no longer value it at what they did and are selling down.
Let see what happens...
First time poster.
IMHO, the recent shenanigans re the ATM is an insto shorting to allow new director based in aussie to purchase at cut rate prior to listing.
Price below 50c has not been seen since 2012. Milford and Freedom still have holdings as per 28 Nov 2014. Richard Le Grice is last director to declare changes.
The only other thing I can think of is insto shorting to keep ASX listing low (as it will be based on average price at set period) in order to generate ASX interest. All legal of course but hardly policed that well.....
What will happen tomorrow? More declines or bounce back? Always fun to think of the unknown
I bought 20,000 at .47c at about 4.30pm. on thur.5/2/15. There were plenty of buyers plus about 209,000 buyers at 46c. and only 29,000 at .47c. to sell. Then at 4.59pm. some broker decides to sell 10 blocks of shares equal to about 209,000 shares at .46c, forcing the price back down. Are the brokers forcing price down for the ASX listing? I was told the brokers were organising the ASX listing. Who knows, time will tell.
Interesting question. And the next question is, what's to be gained by doing this? Most shares in ATM are held in NZ and no more are being issued for the Aussie listing. Australians who want to buy ATM shares will have to buy them mainly from NZ holders in the new dual market, most of whom (apart from some short term traders) are not going to be willing to sell at 46c or even 60c. The main Australian holder, Freedom Foods, isn't going to sell at low prices either. I can't think of a rational reason for anyone trying to actually force the share price down.
So I'm inclined tothink that maybe AMP is under some serious time contraint to sell the rest of its holding, and is simply lowering its sell price to achieve this. What puzzles me a bit is why they can't find buyers in Australia at a better price prior to the listing. Any thoughts? If it's part of a plot to lower the price in preparation for a takeover bid, the same issues apply. The vast majority of shares are held by investors who wouldn't dream of selling at current price levels, or even at 60c.
All this talk about dropping the price for listing or take over is just a load of bollocks. To whose advantage is it anyway? Certainly not the sellers. As I have said before a short seller could easily get caught with his pants down given the relative illiquidity of these shares, with the tradjectory this company proports to be heading. A little published good news in the UK showing increased sales would be enough to add 10%+ in a days trading. Too risky.
IMO its just that you have strong sellers for whatever reason (suspect institutional portfolio rebalancing mainly because they look at % exposure rather than potential or putting more emphasis on dividend producing stocks) and weak demand based on a lack of information or just straight boredom with the wallowing SP.
As far as depressing the price for listing, why would anyone want to sell and depress the price on purpose so that the Aussy boys can pick these shares up at a price well below what most institutions bought in at when listed on the main board?
As far as depressing the price for takeover, even if there was some manipulation of the price for takeover purposes who is going to accept an offer under $1.00?
If any institutions or absolute return funds in Aussy were thinking about buying these when they listed in Aussy, you might have thought that they would have done so before the latest round of interest rate cuts in Australia which sunk the Aussy dollar.
Its all bollocks. Its all simply supply and demand nothing more. Pay the money and take your chances.
Any Australian entity wishing to take a large stake would not be concerned about buying on the NZX, it’s a simple transaction to transfer shares between exchanges. And, it's understandable they would want their holding ASX listed for forward re-balancing when or if so required.
There have been no SSH’s for a long time, if there was an insto selling under 5% it would be a bit unusual for someone on this forum not to have posted it up from broker advice or elsewhere.
It is certainly is an interesting circumstance when most FA's are so entirely bullish on the prospects and outlook of the company, no wonder so many are convinced of manipulation.
Still, ATM is a growth company doing very well and they are reporting in 2-3 weeks.
What would happen if the reported, Revenues: $70M (+30%), NPAT: $1.0 to $1.5M (+56% to +133%)
Someone with lots of shares could be manipulating the price. Possibly dumping their shares over a few months and causing the price to fall which forces the weaker investors to sell. They will simply just wait until a good time (mayby before the ASX listing) to start buying back and the price will rise again. I reckon it is just some method of sneaky accumulation prior to ASX listing so they can have more shares to offer clients. Oh well it looks like it us up today which is good.
Ok fine, but its too risky to dump shares on the expectation that you can then buy the same number back again at a lower average price than what you sold for IMO. I wouldn't do it with these shares, they could go up faster than they came down irrespective of any positive or negative news. Look at the period from dec to March last year...nearly a 100% increase in a matter of months...go figure.
I was told at special meeting that they did't need any shares from me or any other share holders, but the brokers were going to supply all the shares for the ASX listing.
OK Sea weed, where are the brokers going to get these shares from? Is it a brokerage firm hoovering up shares from weak sellers?
Correct. Either existing shares are sold or ATM offer more shares as part of the float usually at a small discount to average monthly SP
The idea that a brokerage firm is accumulating existing shares to sell on the ASX listing actually makes a bit of sense. Hang in there until listing, should be interesting
Jeez you guys are grasping at straws re ASX
Doesn't quite work the way you seem to make out
FMA invistigating Milford for market manipulation around a year ago. Seems to coincide with the jump in A2 price?
http://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article...set+Management
Looking stronger this afternoon. Wonder if that seller will come in at 4.55pm and push it down again?
The manipulation related to a year ago. Read before you post guys
The a2 share price jump started in earnest in Dec and finished in around march april last year.
Its not clear yet whether a2 shares are the subject of the investigation. Milford also own close to 20% of Tourism holdings and restaurant brands.
I think it will be hard to prove manipulation if a2 is the one they are investigating in particular. who's to say that a2 was not considered to be worth 97c march/april last year?
MAC could be called as a key witness to demonstrate his DCF metrics showing that 97c at that time was still under valued, and that did not take into account speculation that growth in other intl markets could replicate Australia. The key question is does Milford still own them? In the absence of a SSH disclosure doc we have to assume so. You could hang your legal cloak on that one. That in relation to brokers recommendation and valuation of around 80c...where's the manipulation?
Nice to see a little tick up today though, but I'm still under water.
You need to keep up biker. Its all about a FMA enquiry into share manipulation by Milford which could have consequences for ATM SP in the short run.
Very quiet this morning . Well might as well start the ball rolling, just bought another 20,000.:).
Buyers rising. Once past that 160,000 at 51c , then up up to 60c before reporting day:t_up:.
Oh, look, this is being manipulated AGAIN. Was looking to buy at 45 now it's up at 51. This just has to stop. I'm calling the FMA
:D
All of .51c sells gone now....
come on ATM, keep going up.. make up my lost in bloody ASX stocks...
How can you be sure of that? If brokers have access to a pile of ATM shares for release in the Aussie listing as suggested by See Weed, they can still push the SP down. Although I don't see why they would want to.
My guess is that ATM will produce a more enticing HY result shortly to get favourable headlines in the financial media, supported by positive updates on exports to China and progress reports on the UK and US. There could also be some new research results and a freshened-up PR campaign. To date the recent slide in SP has occurred in the absence of any real news, certainly nothing to make Aussie investors take advantage of the low prices here and buy up in advance of the listing over there.
does anyone know what date they releasing their financials??? looks like it will be a quick ride up to 60cents over next week or so.....
25 th Feb I believe.
While I m happy with the sp recovery today, I m a bit worry it's HY report as au$ dropped quit a bit against NZ$. This must affect their profit. Hopefully uk us and China can make it up.
The drop in farm gate milk prices should offset or probably more than offset the move in AUD. I think the market will be quite pleasantly surprised with that actually as not many seemed to have clicked onto it just yet.
China should have moved ahead simply because infant formula shipments have resumed, and we will also see initial fresh milk air freight revenues from China coming through.
Hopefully some pickup in the UK too, a2 retail prices have stepped up and are higher than HY14, usually a good sign that doesn't generally happen without steady or increasing volume.
All that on top of the advice we have already that AUD revenues were up 38% in the first four months.
The market is a dull animal at times, but well, it presents such opportunities for investors to profit from the fickle.
I would certainly hope so as we sell next to nothing in NZ ! Fresh milk and infant formula into China and progress in the UK is what I will be most interested in when we get the report. A report I am very much looking forward to receiving. Hope it will make my recent top ups prove profitable :mellow:
Not sure whether you could find A2 fresh milk in any grocey store in Shanghai (perhaps try downtown area). An ordinary 1L bottle costs about NZD12.00 online while we pay only < $5 in NZ. Give my highest praise for the importers who are confident to sell a bottle of milk at such price level in China.
Nevertheless, based on Chinese population (1.4b) so let's presume even 0.3% of them (the richests) drink A2, that's 4.2m human-being. No chance NZ market could beat that, could Aussie (by 10% of their population)?
http://www.yaxp.com/product/physical/2391.htm
Apologies for such a random thought, it may even be that lower oil/fuel prices will be starting to benefit a2mc also to a certain extent, given they are a major distributor of processed milk products in Australia, whether directly or by contract, then there is potentially lower forward ocean going freight and airfreight to China also for that budding segment.
Freight costs at FY14 were $7.9M
Possible but more likely freight firms will not cut their price to much as they try to return to normal margins. Herd Craig's the other day saying they think ATM will be hit hard on Aussie dollar so if results prove this wrong and uk shows unusual growth then $3 here we come.