I've been expecting an announcement for some time 'blis is dog tucker'.
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Could be interesting actually. "Stratum Nutrition is a division of Novus Nutrition Brands, a subsidiary of Novus International, Inc. Novus is a leading developer of animal health and nutrition programs based on science." (Stratum website). Novus sell into 90 countries with revenues of $1 billion (Novus website.)
I think we got told straight away that Stratum wanted to look at Blis for dogs but needed more research. How expensive can the research really be given they have everything to hand? It may not even take that long, and they already have the encapsulation techniques to put it in dog food etc. Also, if there are big legal restrictions on making human health claims (which is the problem for advertising Blis) then this could be an interesting avenue that may not take that long to open maybe? As you say though, how long and how much?
To clarify: There are laws restricting advertising of health claims in most countries, which is obviously to ensure that medicines are real and properly researched. This makes it hard for Blis to advertise though, as the product is a health product at heart.
But there are different laws for different products. Dietary supplements (the current Blis pills) are quite restricted legally in most countries, which is why most probiotic ads in NZ never actually tell you what they do. Foods usually have different rules though in many countries and are typically more open to ads. Pet products have different rules again - I haven't looked into them much, but they are looser. And then web sites are seemingly open to more direct claims too.
So Blis is facing the problem of how to advertise. Supplements have proved quite hard. They're going for food now but it takes time to get any new products launched by manufacturers. And they are trying to attract an audience to the web sites. And now pet products may be a useful avenue too. Blis have also got chemists explaining it in person, which chemists are presumably entitled to do. And they've just announced a sponsorship approach as well. I imagine the Q24 for acne is subject to much less restriction on advertising too.
Thus I presume Blis is poking around trying to find the fastest access to places it can actually meaningfully advertise. Advertising is what many here have called for, of course, but it's a chess game when you look at the laws. Noting the different laws in different market segments is one possible solution maybe. It's good that they are poking around. We need Blis to be advertised, but it's obviously a tricky assignment to find just where and how they can do it. They obviously intend to succeed however.
David said 'Wouldn't they be better to concentrate less of their limited funds on fooling around in the lab and more on selling their products and generating revenue for the company and profits for the company's owners, the shareholders?'
But fooling around is more fun than doing the hard yakka selling stuff ......that's why they go to work those scientists
sparky .... talk of dogs and the HUGE animal remedies market put a rocket under the shareprice today
Lozenges for dogs .... Masterpet as a distributor .... EBO .... a marriage made in heaven is EBO and BLT .... Percy would love that
Morning Report this morning http://podcast.radionz.co.nz/busines...r_2012-048.mp3 (about 5 mins in) reported the dog product should be on the market in the US and Europe in a year.
Blis raises $1.3m. In addition to the placements, 166 other shareholders sent an average of $4k each then. https://nzx.com/companies/BLT/announcements/228866
Seems there are still quite a few "stout hearted men" willing to be counted when needed. Well done chaps.
Well, actually it naturally raises the question: just what sort of proposition is Blis now?
For a starter, we might assume they're reasonably well cashed up. They said they wanted 1.5m, so close enough. http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/e...e-capital.html
Then we are told there will be no meaningful sales into the US or China until next financial year. Five months away perhaps, then?
Possible progress over the next year might reasonably include any of the following: sales into China, sales into Europe, resumed sales into the US, increased sales into the US, increased sales into Asia, increased web sales, increased NZ sales, increased ice cream sales, GRAS sales in the US, GRAS sales elsewhere, progress on M18 sales, sales of dog product.
The question is, which is more likely: continued failure to generate new revenue, or finally getting new revenue from all the activity? Interesting question. Answers on the back of an envelope! And how does that answer compare to the share price?
I don't know the answer, but the question sure is interesting. And interesting to read the next report too.
You know, Sparky,I hope ATM and PEB do well too. I've been following them for several years as well. But Blis doesn't have to fail for them to succeed! It was suggested Howard Paterson failed at things. But I checked and he was a founder of ATM, and I'm fairly sure he was a supporter of PEB too, and as far as I can tell all the things he set up have succeeded except so far Blis. With luck it will be 100% soon. Good luck to all NZ biotechs, as far as I'm concerned.
Incidentally, a historical note, just out of interest. Yes, the trench warfare of WWI was awful, but remember that doing that DID win and peace was restored to Europe. The Germans deployed machine guns, tanks, planes and mustard gas in the field. This was completely unprecedented, and everyone just responded as best they could. Trench warfare was brutal and awful, but it DID work in the end in the face of unbelievable escalation of military technology.
More interesting still is that a horrible part of the trenches was Trench Mouth, a bacterial infection of the gums. So they would have loved Blis!
"The Germans deployed machine guns, tanks, planes and mustard gas in the field. This was completely unprecedented, and everyone just responded as best they could"
the response was to send living human beings into battle to "use up" the limited supply of german ammunition.
sort of like what blt is doing now....... milking the last few hard core followers for the last drop.
sorry about my statement.... but i got milked enough.... and seen nothing yet except letters asking for more investment monies..... think its 12 years now...... in my case the early bird got screwed.
it seems the johny come latelies are getting screwed less ....... but more so obviously.
close it down. sell the intellectual property and send the docktors into retirement.
well sparky.... i hope you are right...... i / we could use some good outside jovial good luck.
in fact... if it turns for the better...... i'll buy you and mrs clown a fine dinner.
but a website wont cut it... nor will radio adds. overseas presents?... been happening for many years.
whats the answer?...... maybe some swavy advertising like 42 below??
anyway still a holder, just not optimistic anymore.
Hi STC. How much do you think they should spend on the NZ advertising campaign? And how much extra revenue would you expect from this in year one?
I responded to your comment with this question because spending a significant amount of money would probably not result in large revenue increases. Blis Throatguard sales have been growing at a reasonable rate (10-20% pa (from memory)) and the product is now number three in NZ in this segment. As I recall NZ sales are around 300k. So a big spend probably wouldn't result in equally big revenue gains let alone profit. Blis used to do the distribution and marketing themselves but a few years ago switched to using Pharmabroker in NZ. This has resulted in the steady gains. They have run radio advertisements. There have been TV advertisements this year. There are product brochures in some chemists explaning Throatguard Daily and Boost. To me this seems like a reasonable approach given the limited resources available. Pharmabroker will only invest.
I can't see NZ ever being a big win for Blis, more a test bed for their products. This is especially the case with supplements.
Spending a lot of money on a advertising campaign strikes me as the wrong approach and would only be out of desperation.
Fair enough. My comments are using figures as I recall them. They may be a bit off but should give the correct general idea
I agree. I'm not too sure what the directors strengths are to be honest. To me it seems that the CEO is the strength of this company since he took over in 2007.
Have you checked out http://www.stratumnutrition.com & http://www.novusint.com ?
Stratum is Blis's international distributer. They have much more resource than Blis with the limited capital it has available/can raise now it is in the penny dreadful category. It is backed by Novus. Novus focus on animal orientated products including companion animals. I suspect this is why Blis is doing studies on the effects of K12 on canines.
Blis are trying the direct selling approach themselves on the web. It is a pretty bad website but is it bad enough to stop sales? Probably some but not all.
I would like to see Blis get M18 into dental surgeries. That is a nice fit of products/services.
In my opinion Blis K12 lozenges will only be a small part of the future. The future is inclusion in food and other products. Ideally products with a short shelf life like yoghurt and icecream. Gum is another good fit. It needs to be in mainstream products sold at normal (or close to) prices.
For that reason I support the current strategy. Unfortunately it will take more time. Probably another year at least before food products are released. If that happens Blis will become profitable. If it doesn't happen Blis won't become profitable and will no doubt fold.
If Blis becomes successful in time the profits will be very large. I am willing to risk my money on that basis. So are a number of others who have put large amounts of money into the business in the past few years.
STC, taking my comments into account, what do you think they should do in addition to what they are doing? Are they doing things they shouldn't be doing? Making icecream for instance? Cheers
The thing that struck me most about the issue was the strong shareholder support. This not only gives them enough cash to recover from the expensive events of the last 18 months (change distributor with disruption, buy ice cream company and refit and relaunch, GRAS, Europe and China, new lines of research probably, etc) but suggests they may have the support to survive long enough to benefit from them. My gut reaction is that they may have a good 2 years of safe sailing in front of them at present after that, even if they have to fall back on another issue at some point, which I'm sure they're hoping not to. All of which is quite an improvement on the nervousness of earlier this year, if true. Further, there has been the occasional nervousness about takeover, but that level of shareholder support might suggest quite a decent rump would refuse to play ball at the least.
All of which suggests a much stronger company than it felt earlier this year. The whole sales revenue thing still needs to come right, but I sense a stirring of fate perhaps finally coming together here.
Concrete suggestions, always good. You may have a good point about the pictures of bacteria etc. The likes of Colgate always project images of white and pastel, clean, sparkling, and clinical. No doubt they have found that works. Interesting point, Sparky.
On the website the first thing I noticed was the M18 combined with Blis on the website, I thought it was a spoof website.
I agree and wish they hadn't taken the POC all the way to being a commercial operator!
Big picture wise Blis K12 and or M18 could be in ice cream marketed in a different way i.e. not gourmet. Mainstream or close to it is more sensible. Scale is what Blis needs. Always focussing on specialist areas isn't the way to achieve this.
I think BLT have got this close to right, they own and control the product, and if the market moves they own all of it. To licence to a Tip Top would mean they get FA percentange, mainly because the the types who buy processed frozen milk powder don't care about what they feed themselves or their kids so aren't paying a specific premium, so Tip Top would only shell out for a small fraction of the market. And let's face it, it's frozen milk (or milk substitute) and sugar, no need for the rocket science of Tip Top.
My only concerns are the usual BLT suspects: a lack of marketing and finesse. The icecream product needs better packaging and more info on the packaging, which I assume they are working on. And the lolly-pineapple-flavoured-health-food thing is just bs. Not sure what the problem with the website is, these days it's a question of hundreds, not thousands to rebuild a website.
On a positive note these things are cheap and easy to fix, not sure what the added costs are to switching to organic but if feasible it would corner a market. I've called into PakNSav kilbirnie (Wgtn) and it sells for a very reasonable $8 so it's currently competitive to the chemical based frozen desserts.
It's not hard to sell to a sector who have some discretionary spending and don't want to feed their kids crap.
Good support shown by the directors, CEO and insiders in the latest capital raising exercise.
$2.39 worth of Blis shares traded so far today. I really don't understand why that can occur?
Came across this interview. "We spoke with Jeremy Moore, President of Novus Nutrition Brands and Stratum Nutrition". "[K12 and M18 have] been received really well." "certainly we’ll be investing more into the Blis probiotics world for dental health as well as immunity".
http://newhope360.com/supply-chain-m...e-supported-in
"
Summary of substantial holding to which disclosure relates
Class of listed voting securities: Ordinary Share(BLT),
Summary for: [Xu Qi Wu & Yao Hong Shen]
For this disclosure,--
(a) total number held in class: [45,000,000]
(b) total in class: [669,593,903]
(c) total percentage held in class: [6.72%] "
So, having taken over FPA, looks like the Chinese now have their eyes on BLT. Interesting.
7% for about $300,000? Or the price of a crappy rental property on the outskirts of Hamilton. What would the average NZ investor choose? Good luck Shen and Wu, and welcome aboard.
Just like the Chinese buying huge amounts of our NZ Deer Velvet every year for their health system which has got me thinking, who is the bio tech company in the lower South Island that is doing research and trials on a promising product from Deer Velvet which the Chinese would find very exciting.
Steady on, chaps. That's a lot of speculation just because two people of Chinese name have appeared on the register via an SSH.
They presumably are either investors or people who have come across Blis in business. If business, then I'd be fascinated to know if they are the same people mentioned in this trademark list in 2009, which might be a helpful business connection for Blis if so, but I have no idea if it is them. http://www.iponz.govt.nz/cms/pdf-lib...art-1-8-mb-pdf
Anyway, welcome aboard as far as I'm concerned. The future will be whatever it wants to be. Nice to see someone recognising Blis's worth.
As I said, it's the names that match - search for them. Try page 32 anyway.
Gourmet Icecream now available at New World in Victoria Park (Auckland). This is a great milestone, getting into the Auckland market; will be interesting to see how sales go. Definitely a positive development! Well done Blis :)
Yes, that's brilliant. Thanks for telling us, Nigel. It appears to still be turning over steadily here in Wellington.
Hard to know quite what to make of the interim report. There was an air of tail between the legs, but that seemed to be more about the current situation than the prospects. Their hopes for the future seem undimmed.
Half of the loss was amortisation and the tail of the pref dividends, p14 so that's less pressure on cash for the future. But they're still capitalising R&D, although less of that too.
And Asia finally got a bit of life in it, with sales of last year being 112k this half alone, compared to 52k last full year. We need more than that though. Sales in the US essentially zero. That may be because of the supply chain issue raised previously, but that was not explicitly said. It did say that had happened in Europe and Asia, where there were extra sales not reported in revenue. p3 A pity we haven't any idea of how big this supply chain is that is apparently being sold down, if that is the explanation.
They do specifically say the sales drop is a part of changing distributor (p3), but no particular explanation of that.
Gourmet running at a loss so far. p7. Is that startup costs of expanding again, or is it profit margin, or extra costs in developing probiotic product to show others? The margin looked good in the last report, so we'll have to wait for the full year report for more detail it seems.
The financial situation is expected to improve. p4.
More product launches expected this year, but no food ingredient sales expected this financial year. p5. So some after that?
K12 is okay to use in China, but they need another approval to make claims about it on the label. p6. Aren't rules great.
End of year guidance of -1.3m compared to -0.8 this half. Then that's -0.5 for the last half. Amort and depreciation this half was 0.25 (p14), which might suggest an operating loss of 0.25m expected this coming half? Worse things have happened at sea. It wouldn't take too much lift in sales to eat that up. But they are unsure if they will need extra cash in a year. p4.
The problem with Blis-watching at this stage is the lack of clear pattern. The last 18 months have seen a number of large moves and upheaval in sales patterns as well. It makes it impossible to tell what will happen next and you sense that the company itself has the same problem in forming expectations.
The potential just grows and grows with more and more market opportunities opened up. And the sales revenue doesn't. Yet. It could all change very quickly from here. Or not. You sense that they think they are going to make it, but nothing short of actual sales will ever prove that. So we wait and see. Another holding pattern this time. Or that's my impression.
Thanks to the company for soldiering on. Gourmet in particular deserve a special mention for getting the ice cream into the whole country now, which must have been a massive amount of extra work for them. But all are clearly working very hard. I recently noticed that the website ranking (visitor numbers, alexa.com) has improved a lot recently, and the report said a rebuild is underway now. Lots of seeds in the ground, and we wait for the sprouting.
Six month report just out. The financial news is no better - but there's a pretty positive tone to the commentary. Though, I suppose they would be like that, wouldn't they?
Pierre How do you analyse the Woof Woof
PTC - I haven't a clue how to analyse this particular mongrel - not sure anyone else does either. Their words are all fine but the numbers are still horrible.
However, as we know there are a couple of Chinese investors who now hold almost 7% of the shares - perhaps they can assist the entree in to the China market and get some sales moving. Or, maybe they flew in on a Sky City sponsored Southern China flight and thought Blis was a better bet than the high rollers' room at the Casino - either way the odds appear to be against them.
Still, we live in hope of a takeover bid at a massive price of a least 2 cents per share - then we wont have to analyse anything.
That's certainly the problem. At the heart of this mystery is the most remarkable fact. The product is available through a stack of companies overseas. Do the maths, and any one of those companies would be making millions of dollars a year if they got sales levels in their country to match sales in NZ on a per capita basis, which are hardly huge revenues anyway. Where's the road block?
Where's the road block?
Maybe the product itself
Yes, that's an obvious possibility, given that's it's new technology. But per capita sales here are in the order of hundreds of times greater than overseas. NZers just can't be that different. There has to be something else.
New website under development...
Blis have put a screenshot on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?f...type=1&theater
I think Blis should employ me as a subliminal sales specialist.
I visited New World Victoria Park yesterday after work to pick up some Blis K12 ice cream. I slid open the freezer door, and pulled out a tub, and started to read the label. My unique skills as a subliminal sales superstar made the Chinese lady passing behind me stop in her tracks and gravitate towards the ice cream freezer. She looked at the Blis ice cream in my hand, and reached in to grab another tub (naturally, the same flavour as I was holding). I read the label, she read the label. I checked the ingredients, she checked the ingredients. Through masterful use of non-verbal communication, psychology and Jedi mind-tricks, I closed the sale - the lovely Chinese lady popped the tub in her shopping trolley and was on her way.
Now, if I can just repeat this around half a million times during the next 12 months, we'll be sweet.
Interestingly, the girl at the check-out also commented that it's a great ice cream. And I must say, my wife and I were very impressed with the taste (I bought the Nuts About Chocolate flavour).
The price is a bit steep for my frugal nature, but I do like the idea of eating something that tastes delicious, is made from decent ingredients (milk, eggs etc rather than chock-full of chemicals like the cheap stuff I usually buy), and is supporting my immune system.
Anyways, good people at Blis.... keep up the good work, and let me know when you're hiring subliminal sales staff in Auckland. I'm keen :)
Hi Nigel, your post is very funny, keep them coming.
It is interesting as the Staff at New World in Wgtn also made positive comments about the ice cream. We tried both and my kids like the Pineapple chunks flavour.
cheers
Another screenshot from the new website... (for anyone that's interested)
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?f...type=1&theater
Looks a lot cleaner and more professional than the existing site. It seems easier to navigate your way around, with key messages prominently displayed.
First impressions are very promising.
They're both professional, but that second one is the far more powerful marketing message - simple, instantly clear, obvious, less wordy - so that stuff should make it onto the front page I'd say. And it's got that bright clinical look that Sparky wanted too. Good.
And another...
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?f...type=1&theater
Their new site looks good!
Regarding the company, currently they have around 669m shares issued. Are they likely to do a 10:1 deal in the future? (i.e. reducing the number of shares from 669 million to 66.9 million, not sure what you call it, the opposite to a share split!)
This seems like a company with excellent products, I just see that the company seems to be a bit slack on growth and product dev. I guess they need capital for that though.
I am in China learning Chinese at the moment. I think with a bit of guangxi (personal relationship development), the right product mix, approval from the Chinese government... the sky is the limit for health products from NZ in this market. Health/wellbeing is virtually the Chinese peoples number 1 priority in life and NZ is seen as a place with incredibly safe and reliable food safety. Already we have a number of western brands appearing in the pharmacies here mainly selling vitamins, but I can't see any probiotics yet. With the potential first to market advantage here plus integration into foods...
Another screenshot of the new site...
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?f...type=1&theater
And a quick update on my paranormal selling abiliites... (following on from last week's episode where a random Chinese lady sidled up next to me at the freezer and bought the same Blis probiotic icecream that I was holding)... I was in another New World yesterday, picked up a Terry's Chocolate Orange [I mean, really, who buys those, apart from me?] and low and behold, another random Chinese lady stops in her tracks reaches out, takes a Terry's Chocolate Orange off the shelf and reads the packaging. A few minutes later, I saw her in another aisle, with nothing in her basket except a lonely Terry's Chocolate Orange.
I think I have some sort of talent or skill here. I'm just working out how to best profit from it.
BLT have released their new web site - and I must say it is dramatic improvement on the old clunker. Nice to see some of our dosh being invested wisely into a web presence that should definitely help to gain traction in sales volume and $$.
Well done Blis - the new site looks very professional.
Should see their share price jump up to $5 over the next few days (wishful thinking?)
Looks very good, site is here to avoid google searches: http://blis.co.nz/
Does somebody getting paid to spend some time doing this while not too busy on other stuff at Blis make this professional? If yes then yes it is professional!
Personally it reminds me of something I created when learning to use MS Frontpage in 1997 or 98 when I made no attempt to structure information in a coherent manner as I was just playing with it's UI. Lots of colours. Lots of different sized fonts. No adherence to standards e.g. blue text that isn't a hyperlink! Use of frames. It was unacceptable then and it was disgraceful in 2012!!
I would have shot myself back then if this site was associated with me professionally.
Thankfully neither I, nor the old webmaster are involved in websites these days...
The new homepage looks good. I will have a good nosey later but my first impression is that it doesn't suck. I'm real happy about that.
FYI I went to the dentist yesterday. It was the quickest and least painful dentistry appointment ever. Feedback was my teeth are in excellent condition. This is different to last year when I had lots of tartar and was told to floss several times daily.
What has changed? Not the flossing as I still only remember to do it once or twice a week. Not the brushing and I still do that twice a day. It could be the M18 which I started taking it in Feb 12. As noted previously I have seen far less tartar build up on a tooth where it used to be extreme!
Even if you think Blis is a terrible investment I recommend you start using M18. I take one lozenge a day of the following product. They say take two but I figure one is plenty based on the number of bacteria in each lozenge.
http://www.betterlife.com/product/ad...ppermint/34888
Oh and as I haven't had more than a minor case of sniffles (which go away in less than a day) in at least six years I highly recommend you all start taking K12. I take one lozenge every day. At night. When I go to sleep They (K12 and M18) take several hours to dissolve.
http://www.vitaminlife.com/product-e...oduct_id/57807
And if you have kids get them to take K12 every day. It will make next winter much more pleasant! You can thank me later...
I'm liking the new site. I'm not a massive fan of having so much content on a page (i.e. that you have to scroll heaps to see the information - I think there's a place for cutting out some content, or having separate pages etc).
But overall, it looks 1000 times more professional, and it's pretty easy to find your way around.
Well done Blis folk :)
Does the site have credibility? Yes. Is it easy to use? Yes. Does it support people who want to know more? Yes.
Most importantly, is it well structured to drive sales? Seems like it. And well supported by the Facebook page drawing people in hopefully.
I'm happy.
Blis keeps improving its tactical position. It's got to start paying off sometime, and it's hard to see how that isn't going to be sooner rather than later. We'll see.
Good site, but its much more fun to chomp into their Pineapple Chunk Icecream -- very delicious!
And, only gourmet taste -- I didn't sense any 'probiotic' taste or aftertaste at all.
But, bit expensive -- definitely for those gourmet occasions. Cheers
Yeah, I was pleasantly surprised by the taste of the ice cream. A comment on here last year from a friendly detractor suggested it wasn't the greatest taste, but after my first mouthful I was hooked. It's really nice AND has health benefits. What a combination :)
Ah, I'm with you. (and yes, you may have been our friendly detractor.. who happens to talk a lot of common sense quite often I might add).
I've noticed that it is quite hard when I take the tub out of the freezer (although so are the other brands that I buy). I tend let it sit for 5 minutes or so before eating it, to get more of a smooth, creamy texture. I must say, when I bought it in the city, I had a 25 minute drive home, so by the time I tried it at home (after some healthy thawing) it was absolutely divine.
I bought it at New World at Victoria Park. I don't know that it's available at other stores yet but hopefully it spreads to a wider market soon.
I also bought my Pineapple Chunk Blis icecream at New World.
Didn't get any sense of icy junk at all, in fact very gourmet creamy.
Perhaps you got a bad one FP? Maybe it had defrosted to an extent in transit and then refrozen?
Or perhaps by the time you got to the checkout and then home it had partially melted?
Personally I can't comment on the icy or creamy qualities as the nearest New World that stocks it is too far from my home and it would melt on the trip to my freezer. I have had this issue with other ice creams that are normally creamy. And just in case you are wondering...ice cream is always the last thing I put in my trolley on the way to the checkout :)
I shall wait until it gets to my local and then provide my personal thoughts :)
I googled New World and gourmet icecream... and got an email address for Albany New World. I emailed the guy there and apparently they have the Nuts About Choclate flavour, but have sold out of the Pineapple Lump one. Good to see it's not just Victoria Park, and good to see the stuff is selling!
I'd also like to see the ice cream product featured on the main Blis website, or at the very least have the Gourmet site updated.
They need to look at Kohu Road Icecream labeling and website and basically just copy it, then add info on probiotics, they already have a massive price advantage. I'd expect an added annual cost of under a thousand dollars if they really need an extra website, to explain how it should be served (wait a few minutes until it semi defrosts) and the benefits of the probiotics and natural products.
The notion of functional food is a good one and the decision to go with Gourmet deserves credit but is being let down by a lack of some fairly basic and simple support.
The Blis website is a great improvement but still a little confusing for the customer. Fair enough that the product is useful for 10 different problems but does it need to imply that there are 10 different sets of products? Then different sizes of the same product are on separate pages? Sort of feels like they are trying to overcomplicate the buying process and fill a space. Must be frustrating for the buyer clicking back and forth trying to work out what does what and what the best deal is.
Also an overlay bug on the refresh, not sure there's even a need for the auto refresh.
Definitely moving in the right direction though.
Yo Fungie Pud
Centre City New World had at least three flavours a couple of days ago. Try again! Cheers, Scamper
I note that the Genome sequencing of K12 was done by Nestle, not Otago University as was the case for M18.
Perhaps they wish to ensure it is completely safe before launching (or seriously considering the possibility of doing so) a product containing it?
Either way, at least Blis didn't have to pay the bill...
Why wasn't this an announcement on the NZX?! It's a significant milestone!
Scientists map genome for BLIS K12 probiotic
Europe-based scientists have mapped the genome of the probiotic BLIS K12 strain, finding no negative traits and supporting the safety of the strain.
http://www.nutraingredients-usa.com/...-K12-probiotic
I went back tonight to get some more (at $9 a litre, I probably shouldn't... but it's such a tasty way to get my K12 dose!). It looks like it's been selling well - by my estimate, the Blis stocks were 75%+ sold. The 'Nuts about chocolate' flavor was sold-out, so Bruce you'll have to go for Chocolate, Vanilla or Pineapple Chunk (which is the one I got tonight). There was one tub of Brandy Snap left too (that doesn't have K12 though). Not sure why it hasn't all been restocked - maybe they were just sent one consignment as a trial. Or maybe they have been re-stocking but it just keeps flying out the door (wishful thinking maybe). :)
New Italian research proves the benefit of BLIS K12 probiotic in Children
BLIS Technologies Ltd (NZX:BLT) announces the publication of an independent
research study into the effectiveness of BLIS K12 oral cavity probiotic for
preventing ear and throat infections in children. Published this month in
the International Journal of General Medicine, an Italian research team
demonstrated that they could prevent the reoccurrence of common childhood ear
and throat infections, such as otitis media (glue ear) and tonsillitis by
around 40% and 90% respectively. Conducted over 3 years, 82 children aged
between 4-5years with a history of recurrent ear and throat infection, were
recruited for this study to determine the effect of 90 days
of treatment with
either the BLIS K12 probiotic or a placebo. Researchers concluded
"Prophylactic administration of S. salivarius K12 [BLIS K12 probiotic] to
children with a history of recurrent oral streptococcal pathology reduced
episodes of streptococcal pharyngeal infections and/or tonsillitis as well as
episodes of acute otitis media."
Di Pierro, F., et al. (2012). Preliminary paediatric clinical evaluation of
the oral probiotic Streptococcus salivarius K12 in preventing recurrent
pharyngitis and/or tonsillitis caused by Streptococcus pyogenes and recurrent
acute otitis media. International Journal of General Medicine, 5, 991-7.
doi:10.2147/IJGM.S38859
In commenting after the publication of this landmark Italian research study,
Dr Barry Richardson said, "We know that BLIS K12 probiotic, when taken on a
daily basis, is very effective at establishing itself inside the mouth and
throat. This is important because BLIS K12 has evolved a number of defense
mechanisms, which protects
it from other invading bacteria, such as those
known to cause tonsillitis etc; and by protecting itself from harmful
bacteria, BLIS K12 also protects us from harmful bacteria." Dr Richardson
described a recent example of a customer who had a specific condition, which
made them very susceptible to oral candidiasis (oral thrush) with recurrent
episodes every 4-6 weeks. At the direction of a pharmacist they started
taking one BLIS K12 lozenge a day back in June and to date, they have
remained symptom free.
Dr Richardson said that in a week where the New Zealand Government was urged
to address the causes of childhood poverty because of the increasing number
of children being hospitalised for poverty-related conditions such as
tonsillitis, BLIS Technologies is pleased to be associated with The Salvation
Army in New Zealand. "We have joined forces and are now giving away free BLIS
K12 lozenges to the children and their families in the lower South Island,
who The Salvation Army has determi
ned are in need of additional welfare and
likely to be at higher risk from tonsillitis. While we can't change the big
social issue of poverty; we can take practical steps to help alleviate
poverty related illnesses such as tonsillitis and rheumatic fever" Richardson
said.
The success of this product is also getting through to mainstream New Zealand
consumers. Market research data that tracks product sales throughout New
Zealand pharmacies, showed that while the cough and cold market contracted by
1% for the 12 months to September 2012, the BLIS "Throat Guard" range of BLIS
K12 probiotic lozenges actually grew a healthy 11.6% in unit sales over the
past year.
Those numbers are significant and not something we have seen before. 90% reduction in reoccurrence of tonsillitis! That is huge.
The other significance is that the research is independent. It has far more credibility that if it was to come from Blis.
Yes we do. This news, along with others will make it easier for Stratum to sell the ingredient to others. It isn't being left in the hands of New Zealand management.
Last time the pet research was discussed you were asking how much would it cost? And now you are saying it will be 400k. Where did you get that number from?
Ummm, this isn't being sent to consumers. I can't think why this will confuse anybody at the local chemist?
I don't think continuing research that could be commercialised is a terrible thing. Or would you prefer a one legged pony? If you are an investor why did you invest when Blis have made it clear for years they were continuing to do research in the hope that they could commercialise more than just K12. The first of those additional products (M18) has been rolled out over the past couple of years.
Last time this was discussed I asked:
"How much do you think they should spend on the NZ advertising campaign? And how much extra revenue would you expect from this in year one?"
Do you want to provide your thoughts now?
A shareprice, per se, is irrelevant. You need to look at Market Cap. The shareprice could be shifted to 10c or $1 via a share consolidation, yet the Market Cap would stay the same. In terms of 'image', maybe that's something Blis should consider. As it is, $6.5mil seems very cheap in my mind for a company with such strong IP, existing income stream (that just needs to be grown through effective marketing) and international patents over a scientifically-proven product that has such significant benefits for people's health. Now that Nestle has completed the mapping of the K12 genome and shown it to be safe, I wouldn't be surprised to see some action from them re a new application of the product.
I think the 'rebuttals' provided by emearg were on the mark. This is independent research that further strengthens the 'saleability' of our product - it combats some of the cynicism around the efficacy of probiotic products and will provide some welcome attention to the benefits of K12. As emearg pointed out, the results from the study were pretty convincing - it's this sort of research that will open doors to some big deals.
David, you also make an important point about the need to translate a solid product into sales. I'm trusting that Stratum have the skills to leverage studies such as that announced today to build sales globally.
If any other company had just announced a 90% success rate in dealing with recurrent tonsilitis, people would be looking up with very much interest. And 40% success with recurrent glue ear is hardly small news to very many parents whose lives are driven mad by this problem.
I think David's attitude to the share price being right is a very common view and I've long since given up arguing. But I don't agree with that logic, even though I can see the weight of it. A2 Milk was 6 cents three years ago and is now 52. Pacific Edge was 7 cents at the time, now 42. Diligent was 10 cents, now $5.
David is quite correct that we need income to prove the point. On the other hand, Blis has now paid for some real assets, like K12, GRAS, Europe, China, M18, Q24 (somewhat), dog products somewhat (estimated on the market next year remember), numerous business partners, a strong NZ market position, an ice cream company, valuable food technology... so presumably much of the income in future can go straight to the bottom line. Well see.
By the way, people should try the Gourmet roulade. A seriously nice product that would go very well in many dinner parties I imagine. It has started showing up in many supermarkets here in Wellington now, after being very hard to find before that. And did people notice the Brandy Snap ice cream is now in the same flat-pack format as the Blis ice cream, where it used to be in pottles? Capitalising on market position gained? Blis ice cream is very visibly positioned in some supermarkets now.
I certainly can't see the fat lady anywhere near this company as it stands presently. Next year will certainly be an interesting one to watch. This year was certainly tough on shareholders, but I could see that changing with any reasonable tailwind of luck. We'll just have to wait and see.
A 10% jump in the SP today - somebody likes the latest anoouncement.
Can't help feeling that a share consolidation would be a good idea though to get BLT out of the penny dreadful category. A 1 for 10 deal would at least get it into the 10cent dreadful department. It might also attract a bit of market interest and add a modicum of credibility to the business - maybe!
pierre, it might be a 'big jump', but only $1100 spent.
i'll go and eat more Pineapple chunk icecream before the company fails completely!
Anyone interested in reading the article can find it here:
www.dovepress.com/getfile.php?fileID=14609
I don't think so. The share price would fall back to penny dreadful status pretty quickly unless Blis produces better financial results. Without those or an announcement of a serious product launch (Nestle rolling out a food product would be an example) the share price is where it belongs in my opinion.
If there was a share consolidation (to 10 cents per share, for example), there's no reason the price would drift lower again - certainly not back to 1 cent! If it *did*, then the market cap would be in the vicinity of $700k! I'd be mortgaging the house and buying the whole company at that price!
The paper here is Italian (generally bad news - just think of Berlusconi!) and is really a pilot study. It is small, poorly controlled, unblinded, and has been done without ethics committee assent - it is after all, Italy! The results are encouraging, and support the general promotion that BLIS already uses. The authors say they are going to do a bigger study, which would certainly be needed.
As it is a “probiotic”, it is a nutriceutical and is not a registered medicine, so it can get away with relatively weak science data and generalisations about “supporting healthy” gums/ears/immunity and so on.
I think - but am not certain - that BLIS has not done as well as they might have liked with these bacterial probiotics. They have been going for quite a long time. I personally think that taking capsules full of bacteria is a hard sell, although techniques like BLIS Ice Cream is a good endeavor. However, should the major study come through positive - Probably 2 years away - BLIS might get a bit more cut through in the medical community.
I was with a friend of mine the other day who is very interested in these sort of companies and this is what he had to say about the paper:
"This paper is not the dawning of the new age but could be a good indicator for the future."
I have mixed feelings about the stock. The new distributor is a good sign, and there is definitely room to grow especially if they can break into Europe.
Guess we will see in March, or before then. Good luck to all those holding. You could make a ‘healthy’ return.
:)
Also another point. They say in the article the following:
"“Each year, cardiovascular disease kills more Americans than cancer. And while most people are aware that lifestyle choices such as eating right, getting enough exercise and quitting smoking can help prevent cardiovascular disease, they may not know that by just brushing and flossing their teeth each day, they might also be avoiding this potentially lethal condition.”
This refers to the well known correlation between gingivitis and cardiovascular disease. This correlation is quite well established. It appears that people admitted to hospital with CV disease have an increased incidence of gum disease and bacterial colonisation of the mouth. There is no way to test the causal connection. That is, if you take normal people without gingivitis and give them gingivitis, do they also get CV disease. This is not ethically possible to do. So it is not at all certain that gingivitis causes CV disease (or pancreatic cancer, arthritis and so on which also turn up more often in people with gingivitis), and no proof that I have seen that elimination of gingivitis reduces your risk of CV disease.
This is the classic causal conundrum. The rise in lung cancer from 1950- 1980, or thereabouts, correlated well with the rise in the number of TV sets in households! But did it cause it? No is the correct answer.
So, if the company is trying to make the connection between giving BLIS for prevention of gum disease, and a possible effect on CV disease, there is a lot of proof needed along the way to make the case watertight IMHO.
Sorry, didnt mean the article, I meant the 2012 Annual Report, my own fault! Sorry!
Page 6, if I remember correctly.
For your convience:
http://blis.co.nz/media/pdf/blis_annual_report.pdf
Don't get me wrong, I wish all the best for BLIS, it could be onto something, just offering what I know. Thats what forums are for anyway, right? :)
Thanks for clarifying :)
Yes that is what forums are for and your input is appreciated!
Currently Blis don't claim that when advertising M18 to the public...at least not as far as I am aware. I remember a few years back seeing a product sheet with the approved claims and wording that product makers were able to use when labeling/marketing Blis K12 products. They probably have something similar for M18. They seem pretty smart about how they approach this aspect of their business.
Most medically based companies have to be very careful about how they advertise their products and what they can and cant say about them. Usually there is a lot of 'coulds' and 'mays' that get thrown around and you have to look past the padding to get the whole story (not saying Blis do this - but it is common).
Im pressuming you have a holding in Blis emearg? All the best to you if you do, it will be an interesting stock to watch next year.
Yes they do use those words but it makes sense. They're not claiming it 'will' stop you getting strep throat or bad breath or whatever but 'may' reduce the incidence/severity/whatever. A 100% success rate would be better than most things can achieve, including many drugs I would have thought?
The independence of the Italian findings is good in my mind despite your comments (which are quite valid). One hears, and you may be more aware than most, that most drug companies often manipulate the findings of studies funded by them to suit the results they want. At least Blis had nothing to do with this one.
There is a growing list of independent research on K12 out there. It is all positive. Pity it hasn't equalled dollars yet (and may not).
Yup. Thanks. It has been an interesting (but loss making) stock to watch for a while now. If the world doesn't end today (so far so good) 2013 may be the year I realise I am completely mad and sell my Blis shares.
...or the year you quadruple your money! This stock used to trade a lot higher, and it's in much better position now than it was back then. I think it has just taken so long for us to get to this position, that many people have given up. I'm still expecting big things from this company.
Emearg, your comments are getting quite negative lately! I really feel people are not reacting to the current reality on Blis, which I don't think is nearly as negative as people let on.
Either Blis fails or it succeeds. It can't stay here in the twilight zone forever. Everything is now in place except new sales via the new distributor. That will happen or it won't, but I can't see why it shouldn't.
It's not as if Blis even needs to get too much more in sales to make a profit. The November update was for another 500k loss this half, half of which is just depreciation etc. (p14 last report.) That's a real operating loss of of just 250k, isn't it? In a forecast when they are expecting no uplift in sales?
If any sort of uplift in sales happens, surely we're away? So in calling this madness, are you saying those sales won't happen? We have yet to see any sales as a result of gaining GRAS, China or Europe, as it's too early. Are none of those going to happen, let alone an uplift in existing sales via the new distributor? Or any sales of the new dog products next year? Or Q24? etc.
It's been two years of confusing and disappointing results, yes. But that's not actually that long. I can't understand why the market is so unforgiving of Blis, I really can't.
As to Dej's comments, that's all quite fair. However, I certainly hope that Blis isn't doomed to make losses forever unless thay can categorically prove that they have cured heart disease!!! The reality is that Blis only has to sell the tiniest part of the world's probiotic revenues to do quite nicely.
Myself, I think that the company is scrupulously opposed to making false predictions to the point of not making encouraging noises. Most company's will present the facts and also say how optimistic they are in light of those facts, but Blis only ever presents the facts and leaves us to our own conclusions. It's part of the same behaviour pattern that produces the scrupulous research results that you admire. But it does leave us having to find our own encouragement a lot of the time. It's probably the hardest part of being a Blis shareholder.
Emearg, you're probably just tired before Christmas! Either way, I certainly see no point in abandoning the chase at this stage. 2012 was a blisteringly tough year for the company on a number of fronts. In particular it got caught with a low share price and low sales and needing cash from shareholders. If it was going to fold, that was the time, in my opinion. (And I was definitely not expecting it to fold.) It didn't and my own feeling - completely subjective - is that it now been through the valley of death and we can look forward to happier times after that. If I had a crystal ball, I would guarantee that for you! Alas, this is merely my own gut feeling. But I will be acting on it for next year myself.