I wonder if PPH & their Captivated enlisted Causes are able to coax the great bathed Faithful & Hopeful
into parting with THREE or FIVE or even TEN times what they are currently shelling out any time soon ? :)
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I wonder if PPH & their Captivated enlisted Causes are able to coax the great bathed Faithful & Hopeful
into parting with THREE or FIVE or even TEN times what they are currently shelling out any time soon ? :)
OMG ..one analyst has a price target of $2.41 ( from marketscreener link above)
Fair enough ... I am glad it is for you only a small speculative position - and trust it is money you can afford to lose :) : Hope the same is true for other holders. If its just for fun - I recon a lotto ticket is more likely to make its owner rich, but hey ... I would not recommend this investment either
Re Craigs ... I assume you realise that 5 wins in a row in a lottery type competition (nobody can predict future stock prices a year away :) ; are not a statistically meaningful set of data. These things happen from time to time similar to winning streaks in the casino next door. Does not mean though that the winning gambler is particularly skilful in gambling (unless they are cheating) - they just are lucky ... at this particular point in time.
Related to the analyst consensus in market screener (or wherever) - I recommend you take a statistically meaningful number of companies (say 100) and compare for some time their 12 months consensus with the prices these stocks achieve in a years time. Its a bit of effort involved, but the result can be an eye opener.
But better than discussing the reliability of horoscopes (analyst SP forecasts are not more and not less) would be to do some fundamental analysis.
To just justify PPH's current price (based on its current earnings) it would need to keep growing its earnings by 10 to 15 % per year in infinity. They are unlikely to achieve this by increasing their kick back, i.e. they need to consistently increase their customer base. Just wondering where this growth is supposed to come from? Mobile based payment solutions are plenty and growing, while the clientele of the faith industry is consistently shrinking.
Something does not add up ...
No advise, just observations and a bit of Statistics 101.
Anyway - Hope for holders the trend will turn and be with you instead of against you :):
Attachment 13536
Unfortunately - the odds for a trend change are at any point in time lower than the odds for a trend to continue ... until it does change :) .
There is this famous saying from KW about investing into a downtrend ... but hey, this is a different story.
Believe the $2.41 is Goldman but some brokers picked PPH as their top 5 for 2022
Disc: All free-held
At least the share price went up on Friday ..... close at 93 up 2
A bad day and it would have been in 80's ...ouch
This is interesting from my mate at Clare Capital raising possibility of corporate action seeing PPH is so so cheap
Hope you can read
Page 2 is at top and Page 1 at bottom
I reckon funds been accumulating few months now pushing SP lower excess of 50m traded Feb alone with someone mopping up daily.
Almost all stocks where Morningstar has a buy end up doing alright for some reason or the other ....
PPH is one of their biggest Buy with a target of $ 2.05 ...so another positive going for PPH ....Craigs too
PPH is so beaten down now that even a small spark can light a big fire ...11th May results or before is the question . W69 is showing interest means something going on ...lol
Todays price action is dead cat bounce or start of something bigger ? I wonder ...It came from Aussy side so maybe much more to come !!
Surely something serious going on ...Anyone aware of the chatter ? Please enlighten us ...
When a reasonable company goes so much below its intrinsic value ( Even Morningstar had $ 2.05 valuation who is known to value growth stocks poorly ) then all try to pile in including insiders ....
Craigs have them in their broker's pick this year ....I dont remember seeing a small cap in their picks since very long ....so that is something about its valuations
For sure, you only need to ask those poor investors who got sucked in at $8.50 in 2020 when Hulijch family sold their stake (before 4 for 1 split) which equates to $2.125 currently. That's gotta hurt badly having held close to 2 years and sitting on 50% less capital value, for those that're still holding.
And sp decline started with appointment of new CEO Molly Matthews and subsequent investor presentation especially the last one where she refused answer customer split data. That's a very bad call to make in an Analyst's Q&A session.
SP is not decided by the arrogance or behaviour of CEO but by the performance of the company .
Main reason for big downgrades was lack of growth ahead and company not able to achieve its guidance .
The slope of the gradient looks fairly consistent
Has Church been out of action in the US of A since last November ? :)
At this rate, perhaps they should be looking at a consolidation
to mop up all the extra shares created from the earlier split ;)
Will independent director's buying in middle Feb tell us about timing of any M&A announcement ....as I am pretty sure she would have been in the know of whats going on and about new worth of the stock ...whats the cutoff before any announcements of such type ...90 days or more ....just wondering how it will look if 45 days after she bought 100K stock @ $ 1 there is a material price sensitive announcement from the company . Maybe independent directors are not privy to such information officially ?
could pay to do a bit more research alokdhir before applying 'rule of thumb' indicators like that
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...JX3FYLWXU2UGU/
She sold $80,000k of PPH shares on the 23rd of December to meeting American tax obligations (as she would be realising tax losses which should could apply in america) and stated at the time she would buy them back. She bought back $85k worth of shares - a net increase of $5k. It means nothing.
and I chuckled at the time reading in her herald interview that "people in NZ don't have to worry about capital gains tax"...so she bought some shares, sold them, bought them back - and so on. With that approach she might need to worry about revenue account tax on her future dispositions as she is starting to look like a trader for NZ tax purposes.
I understand you perfectly well Alokdir and enjoy your posts.
and I don't think you are wrong re: the potential re M&A for Pushpay. It's a cointoss if PPH can deliver to consensus but if it can and at the current SP there are plenti of payment orientated private equity and trade groups that might be keen to take it out.
On a March 2022 financial year it is trading on a PE ratio of 20.2x with NPAT growth of 30%. That's a PEG of 0.67. For 2023, its on 19x for NPAT growth of 14.3%, a PEG of 1.3. Those are undemanding valuation metrics, particularly for a payment platform.
It's got baggage and NZX investors don't easily forget hence the flagging SP, and not a lot of confidence in the CEO. None of those are particular impediments to a buyout group
but who knows with this one.
Holy Moly ……just read 3,700 churches close down in a year in the US
Maybe that’s why Molly a bit coy on customer numbers
3700 close 4000 open but probably unattractive to PPH who are after the bigger fish.
Fast facts about American Religion
http://hirr.hartsem.edu/research/fas...ast_facts.html
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...599/366380.pdf
ACC buying from Nov till March 2022 to become substantial holder ...hold more then 5% ...Thats a positive for stock and its future I think ....
"Easy to punt with other peoples money eh"
Gee W69 you are in full on bear mode these days lol
I thought ACC had a pretty good track record? Ill always hold them in high regard after they backed up the truck on MHJ around 30 cents when nobody else did. (Im a big fanboy of MHJ stock so don't dissect that comment lol)
Snoopy says to never bet against ACC, "its an accident waiting to happen"
Everyday we dont hear from PPH about a downgrade to forecasted projections means they are ON it ...which should be positive surprise for SP ...Going by ATM precedent ...they have another 7-10 days max to either inform of revised guidance or ...they are achieving it ...fingers crossed at ACC ...:p
" Pushpay is now expecting to achieve Underlying EBITDAFI for the year ending 31 March 2022 of between US$60.0 million and US$65.0 million, although uncertainties and impacts surrounding COVID-19 and the broader US economic environment remain. Excluding the costs associated with the investment into the Catholic initiative, Pushpay expects to achieve Underlying EBITDAFI for the year ending 31 March 2022 of between US$62.0 million and US$67.0 million. "
W69 ...How will $ 65 Mil achieved sit with markets and SP ? Your take please
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/388873
As expected the news came ...they reconfirmed guidance for market's benefit ...this should be positive at current SP levels ...Can it bring PPH to $ 1.20 ??
ACC did buy as well into CBL Insurance ... and look where they are now (hint - delisted and defending various Law suits wasting any remaining investor funds). The old saying that nobody is able to predict the future (including but not limited to stock prices) is true for everybody, including the fund managers at ACC.
Hey - they don't even risk their own money.
Maybe you missed the second sentence in my post - did you?
Based on experience is it long term neither a good nor a bad sign if a fund buys into a stock. Sometimes fund managers are right and sometimes they are wrong - as all of us are, and hardly any fund would consistently outperform the index (which is the average of all of us). Obviously - in the short term does fund buy in lift the price (nota bene - not the value) of the respective stock (which is good for momentum traders), and sometimes the short term can be as well midterm, and this is if funds trigger each other to buy already ways overpriced stocks and drive the stock price into the stratosphere. Look e.g. at XRO or SAP (or arguably FPH).Quote:
The old saying that nobody is able to predict the future (including but not limited to stock prices) is true for everybody, including the fund managers at ACC.
Nobody can know whether PPH's earnings will keep growing (though the analysts predict hardly any growth from here), but we all know it will be harder and harder for them to increase revenues and keep margins. Take the growth away - what are they worth? Maybe 50 cents per share at PE = 10 or 60 cents at PE 12? Take your pick.
.
Suppose reconfirmation 0f guidance better than a downgrade.
Midpoint remains same so maybe 8% growth on last year ......not entirely strong is it,esp for a company perceived to be a growth company.
it's a shame they didn't talk to NPAT. EBITDAFI - that's a lot of 'befores' - particularly the catholic growth initiative (being the 2nd and last 'I').
If you believe consensus - NPAT is still growing rapidly - much faster than EBITDAFI (i puke a little in my mouth each time I type out E B I T D A F I) and shows solid growth ahead of it
The market will react significantly upon the release to its actual results on how many customers it has (I assume they will provide them on the full year) and its actual NPAT - up or down
Really solid cashflows flow though - repaid a tonne of debt. cashflows are king
It seems Mr Market likes PPH's recent reconfirmation of the guidance ...much more then many analysts over here ..:p
After full year results it should be good for $ 1.50 ...IMO
Media still pushing the takeover story
Probably only nice thing they can come up with.
If you want to predict what Mr Markets next move is - just use beagles magic silver dollar (or any other coin you prefer). The 50% chance to get it right (if the desired answer is just up or down) is as good as any other tool at your avail.
However - Mr. Markets moods have all to do with greed, fear and hype and little with underlying fundamentals ...
I think the Catholic deal will be done. They wouldn't be spending the money, making changes to their app and announcing it unless they were confident it was going to happen once milestones are met. Then they'll be on a path to servicing the nearly 70,000,000 catholics in the US. I think a rollout could be relatively rapid too, with a much more centralised, top-down structure than many other churches. People selling at little over $1 now will cry if i'm right.
Probably useful to look at the facts behind all the hype.
70 million catholics in the US? Perhaps, if you count everyone as catholic who happened to be baptised at some stage in her life in a catholic church.
How many of them are regularly going to service? Worldwide it is roughly 10% of the baptised - i.e. we talk only 7 million.
Most of these will give most of their donations by monthly / quarterly or annual bank transfers - no benefit to the church if they would change to PPH and PPH plus VISA take a big bite of the donations they get currently.
And don't forget - catholic priests rarely are able to compete with the marketing professionals in the bible belt who would sell their grandmother for getting more coin ... i.e. less spontaneous "Halleluja" donations (just push the button, will you).
Does not leave such a big increase for PPH, even if the deal goes ahead, isn't it?
... and maybe think Wynyard (WYN) if you want an example for a Software company doing changes in advance of a customer signing up. Clearly effort in advance may or may not pay back.
Even from a pure TA perspective - the trend looks ugly.
I recon the hype deflation for PPH is likely to continue, but sure - there always might be some small ripples for the traders.
Shareholders probably being put of their misery .... takeover on cards
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...975/369216.pdf
Yes more great news. And I thought today would be grim.
Hmm to hold or take the money and run :confused:
Last trade $1.29
One bird in the hand vs two in the bush?
I guess it depends on how good you are with your falcon ... (that's where the saying is coming from) :) ;
Obviously - the takeover may or may not eventuate and the potential bidder may or may not be right in seeing value (if he does).
The other question would be - is this potential bid just a (temporary) gamechanger for the price hype or does it change the underlying business proposition?
Discl: 2 hot 4 me ... never really trusted some of their board members, never saw their value above the market price and see so far no reason to change my views ... but not particular good in predicting hypeswings.
age old question
depends on how opportunistic the prospective acquirer is (presumably a private equity firm but could be some form of trade). With this company's SP so beaten up its easy to see how someone could lob in a standard 30% takeover premium and hope to get away with it, but that wouldn't succeed with average TP 57% above last close and any independent valuation unlikely to be below that.
then there is the baggage in the company. We don't have good visibility on the customer numbers and how they are tracking and presumably the prospective buyer(s) dont either - so they could walk away after getting a look under the hood. That said they will have been undertaking desktop due diligence and have already engaged industry experts so they will be well informed. One large private equity is known to have already done a lot of work on PPH and came close to submitting a takeover offer years ago before the SP ran up.
If the premium bid is solid I'd say it has a good chance as many shareholders will probably be relieved to get out with all the trials and tribulations the company has been through. The company release read relatively benignly and factually - sometimes initial takeover press releases have a lot of defensive language which indicates the board has it doubts. The board still might they just haven't shown any cards yet.
Are PPH part of the NZX50 ?
According to Dr. Google it is:
I suppose you start thinking which company could replace them in the index if the take over eventuates, aren't you ;) ?Quote:
It is publicly listed on the New Zealand Stock Exchange NZX and the Australian Securities Exchange ASX under the ticker code PPH. Pushpay joined the NZX50 Index in December 2017 and the ASX All Ordinaries Index in March 2018.
From nbr today
Takeover approaches for dual-listed church payment and management software company Pushpay are unsurprising following a near-halving of its share price over the past six months, with private equity firms or large payment companies likely circling, says an analyst covering the stock.
Pushpay today said in a statement to the NZX it had recently received “unsolicited, non-binding, and conditional expressions of interest or approaches” from third parties looking to acquire the company.
The board had appointed Goldmans to assist as financial adviser.
“There is no certainty that these expressions of interest or approaches will result in any transaction,” Pushpay said.
The company’s share price had struggled since its half-year results last November, when it lowered expectations for underlying ebitdafi (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, amortisation, foreign currency gains or losses, and impairments) by about US$5 million to between US$60m and US$65m.
Its shares had fallen from $1.85 the day before its half-year results to close at $1.03 on Friday. It fell as low as 91c in February.
But shares jumped on the news of takeover approaches today, up more than a quarter in early trading before pulling back slightly to $1.23 this afternoon. More than 2.9 million shares have traded on the NZX at a value of $3.7m.
Morningstar equity analyst Shaun Ler told NBR the news was unsurprising given Pushpay’s share price had suffered from the wider market’s indiscriminate selling of technology companies this year.
That had seen multiple takeover approaches for other tech businesses.
“It’s unsurprising because Pushpay, in our view, is a deeply undervalued stock,” he said. “If you look at the data, the customer numbers are growing, they’re getting more sticky, it is still a structural growth story and not a speculative tech stock that’s not making any money.”
Can PPH go over $ 1.50 after the results ? Craigs and Morningstar thinks even higher levels possible !!!
What should be reasonable exit price for holders ?
W69 hinted at takeover rumours 2 months back ...may result in better times ahead for SP ??
An example of the major risk with the Buy and Hold Strategy..Riding out the rough times only to be undone by a takeover...I instantly thought of Frucor when I read the announcement.
Disc: have none
With persistent buying ...it seems offers are serious and company is worth more . Informed buying keeping SP alive ...once over $ 1.30 ...it should move faster
Any updates please ?
Lower NZD helps this company too as all revenues in USD !!
I assume there will be some interim announcements on perfunctory steps given the initial release was light on detail. Factual information, like has the bidder requested & being granted access to a dataroom to conduct due diligence, is there a timetable to reconfirm the indicative price, is the board getting an independent report completed, is it one party or more, etc. And all that before they even say what the price, or might be after the bidder completes DD.
I have my views on what a successful price would need to be to get a transaction completed. But that is tempered by the history of the company, we don't have a good feel for what is happening at the customer level, etc.
looking forward to learning more too!
I'm not sure i'd feel comfortable giving a specific price - this is very much a DYOR situation
but I'll frame my thoughts for you
the timing of the offer feels very opportunistic to me. The SP has just been wholloped over the last 6 months. some of that is macro/sentiment, some of that is company specific issues (the recent insider trading allegation, some silence over customer numbers). Market was pretty skeptical about earnings - business gave guidance a few months ago which the mkt didn't seem to believe (and now PPH has reconfirmed and narrowed the range).
So I can easily see someone coming in saying this is in such an entrenched downtrend - we'll wait for that to continue and when it looks like bottom out we will chuck in a stock standard 30% premium.
The broker average is well above that. PPH has even been a couple of the brokers main picks for FY22 and consistently been described oversold, etc. So with that backdrop, I see it hard for the board and an independent adviser to accept an opportunistic bid. and if rejected could just see the price fall back down again.
On the other hand maybe the bid is a lot more. Perhaps its somewhere near (+/-) the average target price. then they still have to get through due diligence. and price in whatever they find, if anything. and there is always a risk the bidder could walk away after DD (or goldman sachs could earn their keep and attract other bidders)
If its opportunistic I expect the board would decline to grant the bidder access to DD and discontinue engagement. and I hope they'd inform shareholders about that. if its serious they'll grant access.
so lets see what happens as the company goes through the different stage gates
Thanks for your thoughts
TBH they did mention " Multiple Offers " in the announcement ...also they appointing an advisor like Goldman also makes me believe its serious business not just brush aside kind of offer .
Hopefully FYR time on 11th May they may let us know more ...Not disclosing offer prices or valuations makes it even more mysterious
I'm not sure they said "multiple offers" but they did speak in plurals. That would seem to imply multiple but I wouldn't be surprised if its a standard thing to speak in plurals when even one "offer" or "approach" or "expression" is received. Its sorta in the best interest for shareholders to have the board talk in plurals - you don't want them announcing there is just one offer - you want the bidder to be unsure if there are others. Anyway, I'm speculating here.
Even if it was 'just' an opportunistic bid of say 15-30% that had a low chance of success they would probably still have to appoint an adviser to give them advice, as they have some fiduciary duties. If it was one of those ridiculous lowball offers from the days of old (what his name something whimp) that was like 0-10% higher than spot they would just dismiss it outright.
Goldmans may be engaging right now with the potential bidder(s) - doing some quick/prompt analysis and valuation work for the board - and then saying to the bidder well you have to be at this price to get access to due diligence. and the company would go and get an independent expert report done for shareholders when/if the bid became a real thing.
I suspect the board wants some work done first before it decides on next steps. and then informing shareholders where to from here
" Pushpay Holdings Limited (NZSX:PPH, ASX:PPH, ‘Pushpay’ or ‘the Company’) advises it has recently received unsolicited, non-binding and conditional expressions of interest or approaches from third parties looking to acquire the Company. The Board has appointed Goldman Sachs to assist as financial advisor. There is no certainty that these expressions of interest or approaches will result in any transaction. "
Yes all are in plural so I assumed multiple offers as thats what they are implying IMO
So we should have some clarity on 11th about what ahead and how lucky we can get ...lol
So - you are saying they received several expressions of interest or several approaches from third parties, i.e. several of one and none of the other? Or could it be just one expression and several approaches? Obviously, given the "or" it could be as well several approaches, but no expression (or vice versa) and maybe it could be in this case as well just one expression and no approach, couldn't it?
However it may be ... good luck to holders, I think this is a share where a get out of prison card could really be beneficial ...
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...603/369968.pdf
I am surprised at this late substantial holder notice ...it began on 29th Dec 2021 ...released to public via NZX announcement on 5th May 2022 !!!
Any rules about time limit of such notifications ? Why suddenly they woke up ...maybe something to do with takeover news !!!
Could be badly worded …like been buying from December 31
Got a few extra the other day and went over 5%
Otherwise been naughty …. because it was higher than 5.03% back then because been some new shares issued
Clearly said when substantial holding began ...also no price information ...normally thats also supplied if it was one transaction as it seems ...or they provide details of transactions as attachment
NZX is not good in policing such matters for small shareholders ....ASX is much better
What to expect from PPH results tomorrow ?
NPAT has been already pretty much disclosed in reaffirmation of guidance ...so cant be any big surprises there ...
Will they disclose more info about take over offers ? Will indicative offer price be disclosed ??
Seeing yesterday's price action at both exchanges and tremendous volumes at NZX. ...it did more then 11 million with two big deals at 1.36 ....Seems someone in the know is taking a bigger position ....PPH has great record of letting someone know ...lol
Will tomorrow be revealing or just normal for SP ...lets see how much they ready to share with shareholders !!
Lots of new customers
Underlying EBITDAF1 of US$62.4 million, in line with guidance for the year ended 31 March 2022
Guidance for FY23 is Underlying EBITDAF of between US$56.0 million and US$61.0 million, reflecting investment in growth opportunities
So less profit in F23 because we need to spend to grow
But F24 will be great ..... for the new owners
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...832/370239.pdf
Keep silent on takeover offers ....maybe trying to make it easier ...lol
IP transfer to save USD 7 million a year is a great move !!
Now who in their right mind would want to hock off their holdings at current levels to some foreign Parasite fund,
when today's guidance points to fairly glowing green lights heading in to 2023 & 2024 ? :)
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...EJFDGAPX37AL4/
As per Jarden ...60 Cents upside possible on sale or otherwise !!