I have a strong feeling that FY15 earnings will be $44m, PE12.6 will give sp near $1.19.
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OMG....wtf is going on with HNZ
Well up the losers board .....not as bad as Mowbrays or Cavalier but jeez worse than Pumpkin Patch
And closing week n Nelson is a bad omen .....cricket world in mourning (RIP Phil) .....and Blackcaps up against it paying Pakistan.
Did HNZ go ex divie or something
It is no longer a case of "the end is nigh",it has happened!!!! lol.
Unusual volatility in HNZ last two days. Up 3 down 4. It got a bit ahead of itself that's all W69. Don't forget it was only $1.06 last week. No cause for concern.
Sticking with my $1.20 core valuation by mid 2015 (10 cents EPS x PE of 12), with all the risk to the upside with possible EPS accretive acquisition(s).
Not the only one to get ahead of itself and a good clip around the ears, see RYM and KIP SP drops today.
After he distress and anxiety of last Friday when the HNZ shareprice collapsed to 110 I have taken the advice of Mr Taleb who pointed out that the more you look at the prices there will be just as many distressing moments as joyous moments, so only look at once a week or month
Has it stopped free falling yet?
I know cheating but took HNZ off the watchlist for a while
UDC making heaps
http://www.interest.co.nz/business/7...y-sector-and-n
Best bits -
Price told interest.co.nz UDC's strong lending growth has continued into its new financial year.
UDC's cost to income ratio fell to 27.3% from 31.6% the previous year with costs up 1%.
So for HNZ growth, better interest margins, making more with little extra costs PLUS $6m from HER will take 2014 earnings of $36 m to $42m .....yeah right .....closer to $50m surely
Thanks for the link Winner69.
I have found how UDC does is a good indicator as to how Heartland is/are performing.
Yes the $42mil is certainly looking a "very modest" target.
The last three broker's research I have seen have had a target price/ valuation of $1.00 for Heartland,yet the sp is tracking at around $1.10 to $1.15 .????
Whether brokers will update their research before the half year result,which is due at the end of February,or not, we will have to wait and see?
On the charts the sp is well above the 50day EMA $1.04,and the 200 day EMA 96 cents,so the strong uptrend is confirmed.
Just a reminder that I posted a while back with a Reuters link to confirm. Average analysts 2015 forecast is for EPS of 9.95 cps which equates to $47m. Its common knowledge that the official guidance of $42 - $45m is extremely conservative and most of the analysts are well and truly on to it. Since the ASM at the end of October the SP is up from $1.00 to $1.15 which is a very strong move in just over 1 month reflecting the strong start to the year Q1 of $11m and the market recognition forecasting is too low. I expect an official upgrade when they release H1 results. We are well positioned :)
Roger - do you think they are a takeover target?
More questions for Roger.
I read AMP want to get into banking.The banks are selling insurance related products,so AMP see owning a bank, giving them the right channels for their insurance products.
The question Roger,do you think AMP should start a "greenfields" bank, or would they be better off buying Heartland Bank?
And if so,what do you think would be a fair price for them to pay?
Shell rumoured to be looking at having a crack at BP and with record low rates for M&A funding so anything is possible.
I don't see any competition issues for the regulator with the number of registered banks in N.Z. now and certainly HNZ's fundamentals and the synergies an acquirer could bring to bear make it a highly attractive opportunity that would almost certainly be EPS accretive to another bank.
Share register is fairly open
1 Harrogate Trustee Limited 44,378,352 9.58% 2 Brett Wilson & Stephen Gunning 43,000,000 9.28% 3 Accident Compensation Corporation 34,106,452 7.36% 4 Oceania & Eastern Limited 12,289,728 2.65% 5 Cogent Nominees Limited 11,623,439 2.51% 6 Philip Maurice Carter 9,500,000 2.05 7 FNZ Custodians Limited 8,604,368 1.86 8 HSBC Nominees (New Zealand) Limited 7,953,205 1.72 9 New Zealand Permanent Trustees Limited 7,100,000 1.53 10 Leveraged Equities Finance Limited 6,898,066 1.49 11 National Nominees New Zealand Limited 6,203,882 1.34 12 JPMORGAN Chase Bank 6,139,591 1.33 13 Investment Custodial Services Limited 5,912,329 1.28 14 New Zealand Superannuation Fund Nominees Limited 5,441,482 1.17 15 Citibank Nominees (NZ) Limited 5,364,331 1.16 16 Heartland Trust 5,108,707 1.1 17 Tea Custodians Limited 5,082,064 1.1 18 Investment Custodial Services Limited 4,982,396 1.08 19 Jarden Custodians Limited 4,500,000 0.97 20 Forsyth Barr Custodians Limited 3,827,915 0.83 TOTAL FOR TOP 20 HOLDERS 238,016,307 51.38
Sorry if this cut and paste from the annual report doesn't come out in the right format, hope you get the general idea.
Mate I was hoping you'd field the first question not add to it lol. With the recent entry by the Chineese bank and them looking to build business i'd say there's little doubt AMP would be better to buy HNZ. There would be good synergies between the two organisations and excellent opportunities to cross sell products and services.
I think an acquirer could try and make a case at around $1.40 - $1.50 equating to a 2015 PE of 14-15. I probably wouldn't sell but you never know they might be able to get significant traction at that level.
I really hope this doesn't happen as I see really good things in the years ahead for HNZ and would FAR rather have this as a core part of my long term portfolio than take a quick buck after HNZ being bought out by a greedy foreign owned bank. The other thing to keep in mind is how long before it gets into that price range without a takeover offer ? If they come out with a 2016 forecast of 12 cps or thereabouts late next year after the 2015 highly successful result you've only got to expand the PE to 12.5 to see a price at potentially the top end of that range this time next year. (12 cents x 12.5 PE = $1.50). I'd far rather see HNZ do the acquiring :)
Thank you for your well thought out reply.
Like you I have made Heartland a large % of my portfolio.
I am proud to have shares in a NZ owned and operated bank that will benefit New Zealanders,and like you would rather see HNZ doing the acquiring. .