Thanks for the hindsight but i took the foresight instead and left a ways back. I try and use the simple M/A chart to help time in and out and slowly getting better at it but the RYM chart wasn't much use to this novice.
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I recall being asked a question years(?) ago by Winner regarding my view on the relationship between Underlying Profit for RYM compared to Unrealised Gains. The difference between the two being predominantly (exclusively?) the increase in value of their villages as provided by an independent valuer.
At the time I stated that I believed, through the passage of time, that one (Underlying Profit) must eventually translate into the other (Unrealised Gains) at the point when the unit is actually re-occupied. Maybe my view holds (possibly) but I now believe it is not an accurate way to look at it.
What has prompted me into writing this message is my recent readings from some of Sauce's old posts in the 'Owner Earnings vs Free Cash Flow' thread, posts 349 to 353 (link below)… in particular post 353. His posts are still so relevant today…wish he was still a contributor.
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...l=1#post319689
Vaygor1.
Share price going well at the moment
Yes indeed. FY result out a week tomorrow.
Recent SP movement suggests a non-negative result compared to market expectations.
I'm expecting an Underlying Profit of $158M. If this is correct, and assuming a rational market, this puts the Share Price in the $9.15 to $9.40 territory imho.
In terms of sensitivity analysis. If for instance an Underlying profit of say $160M is announced then the Share Price (rational market) price range becomes $9.30 to $9.55 by my calcs.
I'm also expecting an 8.4 cent, maybe 8.5 cent divvy.
Hi Vaygor, what % growth rate do your underlying earnings estimates correspond to??
Last year's Underlying Profit was $136.3 Million so the growth in UP to get to $158M is 15.9%
I know the H1 result compared to last year's H1 was only up 6% meaning H2 needs to be up about 26% to make the FY15.9% but, in the absence of any profit warning and RYM's good reputation, I will be surprised if I'm too far off the mark.
Greetings
This is my first comment on the forum as a new member, but I have been following posts for some months.
We have held Ryman for a number of years and forms a very large part of our portfolio, which does fly in the face of the more orthodox "diversify" doctrine.
Like others on here I am looking forward to Fridays annual result announcement. Given the strong signal given at the half year briefing that Ryman are on track for an increase of 15% in underlying profit, I have no doubt thats exactly (or at the least) what we will be presented with.
On another note, quite by chance I recently came across a Bayleys property advert for sections being sold in Rangiora by Ryman. The advert states "Ryman Healthcare Subdivision" and is adjacent to the new Charles Upham village. This is quite a new direction for Ryman I believe, and whether it is a "one off" or something that may look to be in addition to the ORA structure of villages will certainly be of interest.
Hi Gerard and welcome to the forum.
I am confident the result will reflect 15% or more increase in UP as per Ryman's Nov 2015 forward guidance, and as such will be yet another boring predictable result. :)
Regarding the Bayley's property advert, I assume you mean this one:
https://www.bayleys.co.nz/Listing/Ca...angiora/550411
A bit strange I agree. Nowhere does it state a sale of property. The only mention of price is 'By Negotiation' and there is no information related to timing.
It appears the greyed out section is for the retirement village and the rest open to anyone to occupy (or buy?). Very confusing. The "….there is scope to accommodate all family configurations." at the bottom of the article confuses further.
Phoning the agent should in theory provide some clarity.
I really hope you guys are right about achieving the 15% target. Have they achieved a 26% return before in the second half of the FY?