An article from STUFF:Ideal conditions result in high yields
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farm...in-high-yields
any meaning to PGW?
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An article from STUFF:Ideal conditions result in high yields
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farm...in-high-yields
any meaning to PGW?
As a PGW shareholder this is good to hear. The question is are PGW selling 40% more seeds than last year, over the whole year? Because if you look at the base case PGW were projecting for FY2013 (note 26 of FY2012 annual report) , a 40% increase in Agritech EBITDA is already in the budget as the 'base case'. If the actual EBITDA increase is less than this, then the PGW share price could be marked down when the results are announced.
The other question is how localised is the upturn you are seeing Snapiti? It would make my day if you said you lived in Hawkes Bay.
No matter how well the NZ seed division has done in FY2013, in recent years the results of Agritech have been spoiled by their Australian arm. There is still the potential for this to happen again.
At 37c and earnings of 4cps ($30m) the PE is 9. At 37c and earnings of 3.3cps ($25m) the PE is 11. I would argue the large correction has just brought PGW back to reality. In historical PE terms 37c is not cheap. And the drought has already hampered the FY2014 results, with the share price always looking ahead to future years. With a good result a modest re-rating is possible though.Quote:
There has also been a large correction in stock price's recently.
More potential good news. The question is, what margin are PGW making as middle men for supplements?Quote:
PGW have also been involved in supplying (middleman) massive amounts of supplement feed to farmers.
Certainly Agriservices in NZ had a good first half. If there is a surprise on the upside (AR 2012, Note 26 budget figure for 2013 is an EBITDA decrease of 48%) , I am picking it will be in Agriservices.Quote:
I believe as a shareholder that the company is performing very well in most if not all of the key area's.
SNOOPY
Not another PGW investment sold at a loss pleeeaase! Just as well PGW aren't a Chinese business, as to make losses like that in China would lead to a serious loss of face...... Oh wait a minute, where did majority owner Alan Lai come from again?
SNOOPY
PS The word is that Heartland after being given the PGG Wrightson Finance loan book, has not boomeranged any of those doubtful PGW Finance loans back onto PGG Wrightson. So PGW may not need the level of debt finance that might have been budgeted for after 30th June after all. Perhaps that means PGW can hang onto those Heartland shares a bit longer?
You are quite right Sparky, PGW did buy those HNZ shares at 75c. However, given they have $10m odd worth of shares in what is a $300m company it remains to be seen if they could quit those shares at market prices. The stake isn't big enough to be strategic. So I would say those shares would have to be placed at a discount.
True PGW has received a dividend stream from their HNZ shares. However, because PGW have corporate debt, this debt servicing cost should be offset against the cost of holding those HNZ shares.Quote:
They have also been extracting some dividends out as well. I suspect they will get out for what they paid for it or slightly more, if they sell in the next few months.
Better to lose some face than go bankrupt, I would agree.Quote:
As for Mr Lai, well, there may or may not be loss of face involved. Mr Lai is happy to see some dividends coming through and will be pleased with Gould and Anderson's direction setting.
SNOOPY
I have read in the past that some of you are interested and already have a lot of compentence in Value Investing. I remeber you talked about Altman Z Score and Piotroski.
Here you can find a listing of stocks with NCAV values, ALtmann Z score. You can sort that list for market cap and look for the larger companies that are undervalued regardind NCAV.
I think Snoopy must love the tool:
http://www.grahaminvestor.com/screen...r-ncav-screen/
Unfortunately i have not found PGW, and off course Agria does not reach the NCAV criteria
Well well ....unless I done my sums wrong pgw wouldn't even come up on mr grahams radar
PGW NCAV is 16 cents share ...graham wound only look at pgw at 10 cents
If I read it right mr graham would say TRU VALUE PGW IS 16 CENTS.if so must be a optimism built in if shareprice is high 30's
Or have I got it wrong
Snoopy wil love the site you linked eh ...he might even refer to it when talking about PGW
Maybe graham not a good person to follow
Even under the scenario of more debt reduction or even the sale of their hnz shares no way is PGW a DEEP VALUE play under mr Graham's criteria
Interesting that bens intrinsic value concept gives a much different view of value than this NCAV concept. Can't recall what Ben said in his book about both ....dud he buy things at a deep discount to intrinsic value or NCAV ....or has the story got a bit confused over the years