Vitamin,STICK to a trend and you missed the BOAT..
Young Beaver Qantas has only its self to blame too MUCH DEBT and buying too many
planes the company is out of whack and caught in a DOWN TREND..
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Check out the depth on AIR!
The stock has had a massive run over the last month on good volume.
Looks as though there is still considerable interest at current levels.
Do any sharetraders have any price targets for this stock?
A long term target based on overhead resistance? ~$3.
I still reckon VBA has more potential, technically a lot more oversold and overhead resistance much further away. AIR looks due for a pullback to touch 95c again in the medium term (where I will load up and leave it)
According to the chart
Short term target at 1.40
Long term target at 3.20
Good chance of a reversal back to 95c these few weeks although risk to reward seems good for longer term investors
AMR, many thanks for your view and price target on AIR.
AIR has certainly had a great run of late - not too many billion dollar companies attract such little interest with Sharetraders despite increasing over 40% in not much more than a month!
Lets hope your views and, more importantly, price targets come to fruition.
Sorry about the late reply AMR - I hadn't noticed your query and have been away for a few days.
I presume you are referring to the longer-term indicators as featured in this post. These began firing on 13/3/09 when the slow Stochastic oscillator gave a Buy signal at 89 cents and had all given Buy signals in the weeks before your query. The sole exception here is the OBV. This entire turnaround has been on low volume and consequently the OBV is still flat-lining. This doers not auger well for the future of the latest uptrend and holders would be well advised to keep this one on a fairly short leash, selling on a break of the current trendline, for example.
http://h1.ripway.com/78963/AIR427.gif
JETSTAR boss Bruce Buchanan has called on politicians on both sides of the Tasman to increase efforts to set up a common border between Australia and New Zealand and help lower costs and boost economic growth.
Mr Buchanan believes such a move would lead to trans-Tasman fare reductions of at least 30 per cent, or $60 a passenger one-way, as well as stimulate the economies of both nations.
It would also boost jobs and decrease costs for both industry and border security agencies, he told a Trans-Tasman Business Circle lunch in Melbourne yesterday.
"At a time when both Australian and New Zealand economies are in technical or real recessions, and jobless numbers are escalating at the fastest rate in decades, surely this is the time to solve this problem," he said.
Phaedrus, you certainly picked AIR right in taking a breather from its recent rally. It's off its short term high but still seems like it has reasonable support. Any trend indicators showing up?
Vitamin. Technically, AIR is still in an uptrend - it would take a Close of below $1.01 to end this. The trendline that was in place has been broken and nervous holders would perhaps have exited at that point, although this was an isolated, unconfirmed signal. The usual thing now is to draw a new trendline taking in the $1.01 low. (Light green).
The three conservative indicators at the top of the chart are nowhere near triggering sell signals, but you should understand that these are lagging indicators and as such will be slow to trigger.
Note that the OBV is still flat-lining. There is still no significant volume behind this uptrend.
http://h1.ripway.com/78963/AIR510.gif
From todays paper....Air New Zealand could be in merger talks with another airline by the end of the year as the recession and increased competition threatens its long-term viability, a leading industry think tank says
Making more and more sense?Quote:
Originally Posted by biker; 15 Mar 09
I think AIR NZ have already learnt their lesson in Australia :eek: !!
Their current strategy is clear, they only want to fly routes where they are number 1. Possibly they will also fly a route as a close second if the number 1 is a non Star Alliance airline, but I can't think of any except perhaps, Auckland - Hong Kong? Hence why they bailed out of Auckland - Singapore a few years ago.
Why buy an airline (VBA) thats only ever going to be number 2 on a whole bunch routes in a whole country?
We are talking about 2 different things, Biker. You are talking about total volume. I was talking about "volume behind the uptrend". Translation :- Volume on UP days minus volume on the Down days. You can see that in the period you mention, the biggest volume day by far was a down day. (Red bar). This was volume against the uptrend.
Your observation is accurate though - total volume is clearly rising.
http://h1.ripway.com/78963/AIR513.gif
April statistics again showed that AIR is more than matching falling passenger numbers with capacity reductions.
This is how one broking company summarised AIR:
"No change in view at this stage as AIR continues to match capacity with demand. Valuation currently NZ$1.42 and rating OUTPERFORM."