Seems like more accumulation today too, some decent sized parcels being traded off-market.
Printable View
Seems like more accumulation today too, some decent sized parcels being traded off-market.
Still around $3 down on the pre 4:1 Split SP
Might be a case of show us the Bucks on additional business acquired/written to recover .. ;)
My thoughts , I’m staying away from this stock. You only need to look at the large sales by the directors to sound the warning bells. Also they have appointed a customer services officer as their CEO.... I’m also hearing that a lot of New Zealand funds /large holders have been selling this down which might explain the downward trajectory of the stock. Good luck to holders though
Good to see substantial holder notices coming thru today, the big players see value at the current depressed share price.
One or two big boys surely building up a decent stake here..
Now that's quite refreshing to see Director Graham Shaw buying a decent stake on market.
Definitely refreshing, adds a bit of confidence to the share price that directors are happy to invest. Looks like he bought around $1.69, sometimes I wonder why directors and management dont time the lows better, perhaps he only just came into the funds necessary for the purchase.
Expecting any day now the highly anticipated launch into the Catholic sector :)
https://www.wired.com/story/covid-19...8-0b79c9d7eeeb
"Technology like this can help churches of all kinds, but it has been a lifeline for some smaller and more rural churches, which have been more vulnerable in the pandemic. The First Baptist Church Reeltown, in rural Notasulga, Alabama, has a bare-bones digital presence—a website and a Facebook page—and operates its ministry in an “antiquated way,” says Sarah Jones, the church’s secretary. Last year, it broadcast sermons more regularly on Facebook Live while it was unsafe for its 200 members to meet in person. The church also happened to sign up for another digital tithing service called Pushpay at the end of 2019—a decision that quickly paid off. Despite several months when no one attended First Baptist Church Reeltown in person, giving to the church remained consistent. “Most churches our size experienced decreased giving and really felt the weight of that,” says Jones. “That was not our story this year.”
Pushpay says churches have seen as much as $500,000 in new giving a year after signing up for the service. “This means that half a million dollars was sitting there latent, but people started giving because they can now do it from their phone,” says Troy Pollock, Pushpay’s chief ambassador. The company sees its payments platform as an entry-level product that can introduce churches to its other technological solutions.
That’s what happened at First Baptist Church Reeltown. Although the church is still mostly run on “paper and pen,” Jones says, it’s now looking into new ways to incorporate technology into its services. Last year the church used Pushpay’s additional features to upload sermon notes and prayer cards for members. For churches with larger congregations and more complex needs, Pushpay also offers a “church management system”—modeled after Salesforce software—that keeps data on parishioners. The service can help churches to gently nudge their members to be more active, from attending services on Sundays to volunteering and teaching Bible study classes."
New player ....... Mawer Investments Management Ltd :Disclosure of beginning to have substantial holding
Total number held in class: 55,659,500 total percentage held in class: 5.043%
Interesting volume today, nearly 27,000,000 shares have changed hands, and several very large trades in depth on the NZX this morning. 10:41am , 10,250,000 shares, value $16.9 million. And 11am , 10,550,000 shares, value $17.4 million. Seems someone is in accumulation mode. Hasn't had much impact in influencing the SP, and still very low volume on the ASX.
Many of the companies I'm invested in, those which are dual listed on the ASX and NZX, are often driven by larger volume on the ASX. Seems with PPH , the NZX is leading the charge.
Still no word on the catholic sector coming onboard?
Are they moving in and / or out of some indices? It is Index Rebalance date after all.
Normally does not make a lot of difference to the price - Some funds (like small cap or vice versa) have to buy and others (like large cap or vice versa) have to sell. Just dumb money changing hands ...
Correct me if I’m wrong, but to my knowledge index rebalancing occurs at the end of the trading day, vs transactions showing in market depth during morning trading?
I’d be keen to know as rebalancing of other stocks appears to have occurred after 4:45pm today.
If it wasn’t re balancing, perhaps we will see a change to or a new substantial holder notice next week?
I would not think that there are any stock exchange rules related to the time of the day when index rebalancing is supposed to happen, and I would be surprised if the funds limit themselves to certain times of the day.
As well, many of these rebalances are done internally - who would care at what time of the day it happens and how would you check?
What stock exchanges are doing is extending the trading hours and the evening auction to make it easier for the funds to get into the auctions for any shares they have to rebalance externally. Just an offer for the funds, attending is not compulsary unless the fund rules would require that from the respective fund (not sure about the self set rules for our index funds).
I see that it wasn’t re-balancing causing that on market transaction last Friday. Mawer global small cap fund, so that’s now two Mawer funds each with over 5% holdings. Good to see that the big boys see value at this SP level.
A 16.5% return(my spellcheck put brethren in:)) over 10 years for that fund shows they are pretty savvy.
Credit Suisse is another insto to declare SSH notice of more than 5%...
Good to see more good news. Doesn't have much of an impact on SP though. I would have thought sentiment would have changed following several SSH notices and several profit upgrades. What exactly is Mr Market waiting for? (still trading significantly down on pre share split value).
Some big trades appearing each evening. 500,000 shares yesterday evening after 5pm, and another 453,000 this evening. Someone still accumulating? Perhaps another SSH notice to come next week.
Good to seen this one tracking up today and also Mawer disclosing increase in their holdings thro' SSH notice.
Sixth Street ain’t no mugs to have taken cornerstone stake holding. They would’ve done their due diligence with a very fine comb to satisfy their investment decision.
The overhang of Hulijch selling all done and dusted, will be onto $3bln market cap very soon, you read here first!
Okay .. so now I'm confused -- Ogg managed to find one end of the ruler & sb9 managed to view find the other .. ;)
The SP went up by 10% on the news, so it's only Ogg that sees the Hulich sale to Sixth Street so negatively.
Bit of resistance to break through the $2 wall...let's see how long that'll last. Once they finish up FY period in couple pf days, I'm picking there's an outside chance for another earnings upgrade and/or some acquisition news to be out early next month.
Massive auction at close...
Pushed past $2, seems very bullish, some clever TA gurus can shed some light perhaps.
Added about $110mln to market cap since that post a week ago, currently sitting at $2.2bln and looking stronger to go higher.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ogg;877552
[SIZE=4
Ogg - 16 months ago
"Wake me up if it gets to $5" (that's $1.25 today after the split).
I love it how every PPH share price increase must eat him up even more while the rest of us just keep getting richer.
Big wall of resistance put at 2.10, wonder if it'll be broken today...
Forbar scathing report on Pushpay the other day
Said they squandered the greatest ever year and underperformed badly.
Yet, same analyst was bullish a year earlier dated 23Jul20 with below titled report..
“Pushpay Holdings Ltd (PPH) The Gift That Keeps On Giving...
BY JAMIE FOULKES”
I take Guru Analyst’s call with grain of salt as they have hidden agenda and especially timing that just ahead of FY results. I guess all will be revealed on 12th May.
Not sure these reports are always worth the paper they're written on (probably more a reflection on the massively bullish initiation report FB put out), but exec summary of Craigs report released today copied below.
Pretty modest price target of ~$1.91 with a lack of obvious catalysts, suggests to me holders are taking a punt on further uncertain growth while wearing the costs of seeking it out. Ignoring Ogg for a second, but only a second, what's your upside view?
My current view is that this business is now largely reaching (has reached?) maturity and the growth opportunities from here on out aren't going to move the SP by the %'s we've seen historically. Will probably look to take some $ off the table and reallocate elsewhere - Bitcoin anyone?
Market share trends remain positive
Our survey of the Top 100 US Churches finds that PPH 1) remains thedominant player with 56% share, a slight increase since our initial survey inSep 2018, and 2) has been successful at retaining its existing large Churchcustomers, with a SaaS best in class retention rate of 95%/yr, highlighting thestickiness of the product. We note that tithe.ly, PPH’s highest profile andfastest growing competitor 1) has not increased its market share amongstlarge Churches (suggesting its growth is skewed to smaller Churches, thatPushpay has not targeted) and 2) has lifted its prices c10% since our firstsurvey, at the same time as Pushpay has reduced its prices c9%, so thatPushpay is now slightly cheaper than tithe.ly, suggesting price pressure willease in coming periods. While Pushpay's organic customer growth of c10%since Sep 2018 has been slow relative to its smaller competitors, it is in linewith the 12% growth delivered by Blackbaud (BLKB.NAS), which also targetsa primarily enterprise-level customer base.
Catholic market an attractive opportunity
In January Pushpay flagged that it was pursuing an opportunity to capturethe Catholic market, with a trial at a large diocese currently underway. Weestimate, supported by channel checks, that collection-plate donations to theCatholic Church total around US$5.1bn/yr, which is notably smaller than theProtestant TAM but represents a meaningful TAM relative to PPH’s currentprocessing run rate of cUS$7bn. Moreover, we see Pushpay as well positionedto take share, with a weak competitor set, low levels of digital penetrationcurrently, and a relatively concentrated set of key decision makers.
Looking for strong FY21 result; cautious on FY22
Data suggests that giving to US Churches has recovered in 2H21, following asofter 1H21. While this may be partly offset by a decline in digital share ofwallet from the "low 60s" over 1H21 (peak of c75% during full closure in April2020), most Churches were still partially closed in 2H21, which should supportPPH to deliver at the top end of its US$56-60m EBITDAF guidance range(CIPe: US$59m).Looking into FY22, however, we are cautious that digitalshare of wallet may re-trace further as Churches in the US fully re-open.Combined with additional opex of cUS$8m in FY22 to capture the Catholicopportunity, we expect EBITDAF to flatline at US$58m (vs consensusUS$69m), before resuming growth from FY23. With PPH trading in line withour revised TP of $1.91 (-12% mainly due to higher RFR), and on 41x FY22e PE,and a lack of obvious catalysts over the next 12 months, we retain Neutral.
Thanks for that Sir Ten.
On the other hand, as per poster on HC "Goldman Sachs has a $2.57 conviction BUY on PPH"
Not sure what's currency measure in there, NZ or AU. We'll surely know by this time next week who's right and who's not...
Looks like Craigs have got that horribly wrong going by what company guided today..
"Pushpay is expecting to achieve EBITDAFI for the year ending 31 March 2022 of between US$64.0 million and US$69.0 million, although uncertainties and impacts surrounding COVID-19 and the broader US economic environment remain."
a 100% growth, keep all financial data in the right trend
Key metrics to be aware of going into FY22 period..
Gross margin improvement
Pushpay’s diligent approach to optimising gross margin continues to drive pleasing results. Pushpay increased gross margin by three percentage points for the year ended 31 March 2021 from 65% to 68%.
Expanding operating leverage
While Pushpay increased operating revenue over the year ended 31 March 2021 by 40%, total operating expenses increased by 9%. As a percentage of operating revenue, total operating expenses improved by 11 percentage points, from 47% to 36%.
Operating leverage was largely driven by strong operating revenue growth, further margin improvements and disciplined cost management. Pushpay expects significant operating leverage to accrue as operating revenue continues to increase, while growth in total operating expenses remains low.
Pushpay adopted best-in-class software tools and scalable processes early in its development. Combined with strong financial discipline, these investments will allow significant operating leverage to be achieved as revenue grows.
Huge jump in revenue, increased margin and a big profit.
Will be interesting to hear what Ogg and the other doom merchants find wrong with it.
A steal at this weeks SP.
Well, yes - both revenue as well as earnings went up, this is good - and even their NTA went from negative 4 cents per share to positive 1 cent per share. Lets start the celebration, shall we?
I guess a wee damper might be their underperformance compared to analyst earnings expectations - analyst consensus EPS for FY 2021 was 9 cents (NZ) per share. PPH delivered only 2.8 US cents per share, that's roughly NZ 4 cents.
Spot the difference? But hey - earnings still doubled last year and if they keep doubling every year, the current PE of something like 42 is clearly justified. However - what if not?
I guess it is just important to keep faith. But wait - aren't they in the faith industry? Lets hope they don't sell all of it, shall we?
Courtesy of poster SteveSage over on HC who beautifully explains the benefits of cross selling Pushpay seem to be doing so well and further opportunity in that space.
It seems the concept of cross-selling is a difficult one to understand
Customer Numbers Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Sep-19 Mar-20 Sep-20 Mar-21 Donor Mgmt 7,276 7,420 7,649 7,905 8,180 8,489 8,927 Church Mgmt 4,158 4,236 4,625 Mutual customers -1,442 -1,829 -2,453 Total 7,276 7,420 7,649 7,905 10,896 10,896 11,099 Customer number change (in the half) Donor Mgmt 144 229 256 275 309 438 Church Mgmt 4,158 78 389 Mutual customers -1,442 -387 -624 Total 144 229 256 2,991 0 203
In addition to adding 203 customers in the last 6 months, they cross sold to 624 customers between Donor mgmt and Church mgmt...and they have a huge client base yet to cross sell to (~8500 clients)
As i've mentioned on here, it makes sense as a business strategy to cross-sell and offer more that just a payment solution.
More attractive, better retention, higher ARPU and it will always be more efficient to deal with existing users.
It's working and as stated above, has lots more potential.
The only problem is that some people, including "expert" analysts just look at little growth in total customer numbers and assume that means little revenue growth.
Always a good sign when Director buys a decent stake on market.
NEUTRAL
We upgrade Pushpay (PPH) to NEUTRAL given 1) the recent de-rating of the stock, 2) better than expected customer
growth numbers reported in 2H21 (company expects run rate to continue into FY22), and 3) an encouraging start from new
CEO Molly Matthews who brings a relationship based approach to customers, given her experience in previous roles. PPH's
FY21 result reported weaker revenue and EBITDA growth than expected, despite raised net church customer additions in
2H21. This was predominantly due to the majority of 2H21 net additions to the processing platform sized at the lower end
of the medium to large category (between 200–500 congregation members). We note this is 1) an inferior mix of additions
relative to previous years, 2) likely to generate a slower rate of future back book growth, and 3) is positioned in the most
competitive size distribution in US church technology currently. More encouragingly, cross-selling between PPH's church
management system and donor management platform increased in 2H21, while the rate of churn softened.
What's changed?
Key FY21 result takeaways
PPH provided FY22 EBITDA guidance of UF$56–60m, against our prior FY22 EBITDA forecast of US$68m. During FY21, 747 net
customers were added to the processing platform (vs our forecast 500), of which 75% were sized under 200 members.
M&A still the way forward to ignite future growth
With the company positioned to pursue the Catholic market and looking to retain its dominant position in the Evangelical market, we
see further M&A as likely. As detailed in our report 'Pushpay Holdings: New Year, New Me The M&A Dilemma' dated 28 January 2021, we
believe there are a small number of suitable takeover targets which may enhance PPH's position, although there is a risk of overpaying for the target company and no guarantee that PPH can generate synergies.
Catholic market remains PPH's priority
Despite a low digital penetration currently, we remain cautious of PPH's Catholic success given older demographics, inertia towards
technology, the challenge of declining attendance, lower historical giving trends and a more formal service structure reducing the
chance to solicit donations. In our numbers prior to the result we assumed PPH could service 26% of US dioceses (50 of the 196
dioceses) by FY31E, with PPH now targeting 25% market share by FY26E. We make no changes to our Catholic revenue assumptions
Thanks for that GWD.
Key FY21 result takeaways
PPH provided FY22 EBITDA guidance of UF$56–60m, against our prior FY22 EBITDA forecast of US$68m
I think they got the above bit completely wrong, as per company's outlook statement, below is what they've guided.
Pushpay is expecting to achieve EBITDAFI for the year ending 31 March 2022 of between US$64.0 million and US$69.0 million, although uncertainties and impacts surrounding COVID-19 and the broader US economic environment remain.
Excluding the impact of the investment into the Catholic initiative, Pushpay expects to achieve EBITDAFI for the year ending 31 March 2022 from the current business of between US$66.0 million and US$71.0 million.
There are number of ways to increase the revenue. Ads revenue if PPH wants to implant ads in their apps. Biden increases tax, that means billionaires and high income group have incentive to donate somewhere. Target on these groups and contact with University scholarship or lab department to promote its Apps, etc.
[QUOTE=BlackPeter;884814]Well, yes - both revenue as well as earnings went up, this is good - and even their NTA went from negative 4 cents per share to positive 1 cent per share. Lets start the celebration, shall we?
I guess a wee damper might be their underperformance compared to analyst earnings expectations - analyst consensus EPS for FY 2021 was 9 cents (NZ) per share. PPH delivered only 2.8 US cents per share, that's roughly NZ 4 cents.
Spot the difference? But hey - earnings still doubled last year and if they keep doubling every year, the current PE of something like 42 is clearly justified. However - what if not?
I don't get your numbers. If EBITDAF is USD$58.9m (NZD $82m) and the MC is $1887m, isn't that 23x. Not bad for a firm growing so fast.
Revenue = $NZD 250/m, so 7.5x revenue based on a MC of $1887m
Sorry - I don't work with fiction (like EBITDAF) and I never talked about the market cap (which would be underlying value + hype). The only earnings which count are NPAT. Anything else is a fiction, because companies actually do need to pay interest, amortization, depreciation and taxes.
Try again with NTA (net tangible assets) and EPS = Net profit after tax divided by the number of shares.
If you still have problems, let me know :):
I think I'm close to done with PPH.
I'm more than covered on my existing position but the increasing number of significant insider sell-downs are a signal.
Taking my own advice (see previous posts) and putting half of what I have left onto the market. Balance is option play.
I see Facebook have been talking to one of the big churches in the USA about how to integrate faith and their members into facebook. Facebook building apps based on discussions with the church including apps for gifting.
Like all things facebook offer it will be free. Facebook will generate further ad revenue from it.
Could be a big headwind for Pushpay.
Not sure if this study is only for those attending physically. Someone should do a study on online church attendance which I think has gone up a big magnitude since covid. People may decide to give more, now that they don't have to do the travel etc. So might be a good thing for pushpay.
North American church goers "offering empathy towards people different from themselves"?
What a joke ... I guess, I suppose that a small number of decent people might got lost in their quagmire as well, but lets not forget - these are the people who supported (and still support) the monster Trump and his hate quires to the bitter end.
Great news to see them dying off.
Good point calledone.
Another chart below showing "% of people believing in God without a doubt"... the steep drop off in millennials and Gen-Z has to be a worry... although its quite a polarizing question, as God's existence is unproveable, and therefore "complete faith" doesn't necessarily imply "no faith".
Interestingly Gen X'ers bucking the trend.
Attachment 12827
Personally, the insider sell downs and slowed growth suggests this isn't a long-term hold in my view.
I'd like to see them start to branch out into new revenue streams / faiths.
Market none too happy with the interim result despite the impressive increase in net profit.
Yeah. The slides on the Catholic Church was the best part. You don't re-skin your app and hire people specifically to service that sector unless you're confident of getting it. Unlike many other churches they have top-down org structure. This could mean a rapid roll-out to millions of Catholics.
I was watching the drop! It was savage… at one point on two bids on…
Heaslip & co sold down about a year ago …huge demand and they got $1.79 for their shares
Today $1.61 …hmmmm
I preferred it when shares were over 8 bucks heading to 10 bucks but things seem to have gone awry since the share split.
This a worry … from a market close review:
In the half hour following the call, the share price plunged another 12% after Pushpay’s chief executive declined to tell analysts how many new customers had been added. An analyst on the call said it appeared as though the number of net new customers had “gone backwards” which the company denied.
Apparently Molly said she prefers talking about other metrics …sounds like a Jacinda Adhern approach
Yeah I can't believe that...it's an awful look. It is a basic, underlying bit of information that goes to the heart of how well the business is performing and its subsequent value. Willfully declining to provide something that exists and has been provided before is at best outright rude and lacks emotional intelligence, and at worst could be management hiding negative pertinent information the market needs. It raises other questions - do management have faith in the robustness of their client count information - both current and historical? Have they changed the basis clients are being recorded, discovered some should not have been, etc? This is been a serious issue for other NZX listed firms and managements silence on this is worrying and has created anxiety. Unnecessarily so if the data is all good.
Holy heck, was the conference call THAT BAD?
The growth was lower than expected (but some analysts say it will cycle higher). The bit question mark from me and what I’ve heard from some others is over the CEO. She was unnecessarily evasive and unimpressive on the call. Her background also doesnt shout payment CEO material. Sociology degree in 2002 (where she proudly lists being in a sorority on linkedin). Had a gap year then worked for 7 years in native american education sector. Self employed ‘change management’ consultant for 4 years before joining pushpay.
Spent the vast majority of that time rising through the ranks of their customer service team. Apparently her only experience in the technology or corporate world, was in the customer service side for less than 5 years before being appointed CEO.
Serious lack of experience aside (the best CEO i know had none before starting the best business ive seen) she seems when engaging with shareholders and stakeholders to lack awareness and grasp of issues others think important.
Ive got a stake - below water. Lost all conviction in the stock - at least will get a tax write off to pair against other gains.
Ongoing Disclosure Notice - Lovina Anne McMurchy
Independent Director buying big @ $ 1 levels ....Good value it must have become
Yes, a good buy at these prices - the fundamentals are still good, with some significant growth opportunities if they capitalise on them.
Not so sure. Anybody did the numbers how much they are worth if the long hoped for earnings growth is stalling or missing in action? Nobody can live from revenue growth forever ... and even that is slowing down.
Only one big customer in the funnel and that might be too busy scratching together the compensation to the tens of thousands of children whose abuse they allowed and ignored over many decades (while supporting the abusers and ignoring the victims) ... I suppose their income will shrink, their expenses will rise ... do they really need to hire on top of these troubles a fee collector commanding a substantial kick back?
Ah well, faith industry never had anything to do with ethics ... and neither with reason - i.e. time will tell.
Pushpay share price been in free fall since Molly refused to answer a question that an analyst put to her about the number of customers they had .... pissed most of the analysts off that were at that briefing.
Suppose PPH is seen as 'cheap' because sub $1 is a long way off $2.30 odd it was not that long ago ...could say less than half price ...cheap as
Craigs see this as well oversold and a possible takeover play at these levels. Purchased a parcel Last week to add to my speculative side of the portfolio. Lots not to like, however current price looks attractive to me based on the risks.
@ $ 1.00 its has 20% downside risk vs 60% upside potential . Remember the promoters sold their stake to some investment company in US @ $ 2.10 not too much back ....US private investors are also not dummies to be fooled easily ...take the example of SKT investors from US ...they knew what they were doing and now they in the money big time ....hopefully PPH also has some story going on behind the scenes which we dont know as yet .
I have lots of faith in Craigs recommendations ....they are the only Brokers who have consistently outperformed the markets in their Broker's Picks for last 5 years ..not Jarden and surely not Forbar
With all due respect ... I hope you have a more solid base for your investment decisions.
While both hope and faith have their places in the toolbox of human feelings ... none of them have proven any useful for making investment decisions.
Are you sure either it might be a good idea to have faith into the capabilities of US investors? Sure - some of them are better then others, but overall they are as easily fooled as everybody else. One does not even need to think about Game stop and Cryptocurrencies in this context ... just remember the dotcoms or watch the FANG's crashing down to what they are really worth. And - wasn't it BlackRock (i.e. American Investors) buying in November 2020 into Meridian, paying $7.40 for shares worth $5? Maybe they are not infallible ...
Can you help us to understand the basis for your calculation of PPH's upside vs downside risks? If they stop growing (not out of the question) they might be worth 10PE - that's what - 50 cents? ... and if their revenue starts shrinking due to competition (anybody can collect money) or due to the next big thing emerging in collecting fees for the faith industry - shudder.
Ah yes - and while each of us might have a favourite broker ... I have not yet seen a statistically significant analysis that one of the big ones in NZ gets it more often right (or wrong ) than the others. Sure - some acted in some circumstances clearly conflicted (with results as to be expected), but the reminder have all some ups and some downs in a sea of white noise following Ben Grahams well known citation. To predict the future you can take as well beagles famous silver dollar or a cheap pair of dice - they all do the job as well as our broking houses.
First of all PPH is a small speculative position based on hunch and faith then any market dynamics as mentioned by Shareguy ....Once that part out of the way ...Craigs recommendations in Broker's Picks for last 5 years is in public domain ....U can very easily verify what I wrote about them doing better then all others which is the basis of my FAITH in their picks .
Whether I actually understand why it should go up or not is not required as I said its based on my faith and hope . I am trying to follow Craigs advise here like I have been doing in last few years and it had helped me do well overall ...not all winners but more winners then losers ...eg last year market was flat but Craigs did plus 22% and that was not their best year . In 2020 market up 13% and they up 21.3% , 2019 market up 31.6% and they 47.7% , 2018 market down 4.3% they up 21.2 % and so on ....just shows they have very consistent track record of beating market which is the basis of the FAITH and HOPE
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote...790/consensus/
This also HELPED !!
The Hawk is in doubt as to whether the FAITH and HOPE alone is likely to result in many or
possibly any multibaggers with PPH, based on past history :)
So what your basically saying is you dont do the research but just follow Craigs picks .
This actually good be a good strategy for a lot of people and saves a lot of work ! but ruins the fun lol