They worked out 55% of those working in these secret spaces had pony tails and for the sake of worker safety didn't want him to join
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:lol: :lol: :lol:
Just curious... How many of you guys are as addicted to grabaseat as I am ?
They had $20 fares AKL to Hawkes Bay this morning...I couldn't say no to a nice day out with my wife for lunch and dinner in Napier to celebrate my birthday in November.
Yesterday they had short notice return fares to Hong Kong for $699 return...I tell ya, keep an eye on those specials on grabaseat !!
If entry to the exclusive lounge is for persons who are worth millions to the airline is Michael Cullen a member of the Cullen Airlines exclusive lounge?
Although handling his entourage of supermarket checkout operators, buliding site labourers, and sheep shearers whose taxes paid for the buy in would be problematic.
John Key is not a member, will he throw a hissy fit and sell to Etihad?
Boop boop de do
Marilyn
Looks like the $3 drinks are going to have to wait... :(
$2.99 is that frustrating or what !! To add insult to injury during the closing 15 minute closing match process at one stage just before close the match price was $$3.00. Bugger.
question is.. I wonder what happens after it breaks the $3 resistance?
I reckon! I had my special drink at the ready & almost opened it before close. Oh well, maybe this week?
In related Airline news - it looks like Malaysia Airlines are having a bit of a rough(er) time with their CEO announcing massive layoffs: http://rt.com/business/263793-malays...ally-bankrupt/
What do people think, is this a good thing for AIR if Malaysia cuts some long haul routes, or more of a cautionary tale of how bad things can get in an extremely competitive industry?
$3!!!
Onwards AIR!
:t_up::t_up::t_up:
Bit early in the morning for drinkies.. perhaps tonight.
So.. how far away is $4? :t_up:
Take the day off and have a long long lunch down the Viaduct somewhere
You might even come across Christopher .....if you do give him a hug ......and tell him his planes are safe and won't crash as winner has resisted the temptation to buy any AIR ....bound to crash if I did
Taihoa, put the champers on hold.
Damn that didn't hold for long
$2.90 sheesh big dump..
Looks like $3 bought a bunch of skittish holders off from the side-lines. Bugger !!
The $3 tower just grew too tall and tumbled backwards. :t_down:
Does anyone know how to put the cork back on a Champagne bottle? Asking for a friend.
Bugger! Hopefully a positive announcement soon will take it over and keep it over $3.
Managed to get myself a free upgrade (ru) last week to prem economy. The service was excellent with the food a little bit better.
I'm tempted to top up a little at the current $2.90 sp... but what is with this decline from the 302 high yesterday? No major news as far as I can tell (aside from the notice this morning of Rob McDonald selling 20k) or is it just as Roger said, the skittish holders came off the sidelines as people can't believe AIR made $3 (which imo is a milestone in a continuing sp appreciation).
In three years the SP has risen from $0.86 and been a good earner as well. It hasn't approached this SP level since Jun 2007, which is the highest SP in 15 years. Approaching historical highs at $3.00 / $3.10 might give cause for some to realise at least some of the capital gains.
It will be interesting to see what happens when then annual results come out at the end of August
It's that pesky bearish bat that I mentioned months ago :cool: ($3.00 area would provide a lot of resistance)
Shouldn't worry long-termers though, it's just the wiggly lines telling fibs:ohmy:
Ah squiggly, yes of course
Welcome back Hoop, you have been missed, and I had given up on seeing a return
Winner69 - $10 I'd be surprised at that?!
Just going by what ft.com says (and they seem consistent with what a Findata chart looks like)
Remember there was massive increase in the number of shares at bail out time in 2001/02 (and existing shareholder dilution)
Good story though but totally irrelevant to what is happening today (but a reminder things can turn to custard pretty quick in the airline business)
I think there was a five for one share split or share issue, something like that. I'm not too sure it ever was $15 its just that historical charts that go back that far are representing the pre share split / share issue matter around the time of the recapitalisation, (I could be wrong, just going off memory). But W69 is quite right if you can find charts that go back to that time, I found one today, they show on an adjusted split / recap basis the price was $15 at one stage.
Might have to wait for a couple of years to get back there :)
Yes but I can't remember either.
Had a look back at the news items around the time of the re-cap. Govt bought in in the mid 20 cents per share range. Some would have us believe the Government is better off not investing in and protecting the national interest by supporting AIR at that time. Returns haven't been too shabby have they !!
Overseas residents could only own B shares.
New Zealanders could own both.
Yikes what an unreasonable fall, hello top-up.
Have been contemplating it yes. Didn't think it would go into the $2.80 region.
very tempted.. if AIR wasn't already so over weight in my portfolio..
As an aside does anyone know what the N condition code stands for on the recent trade side of the depth chart? Seems to be popping up a lot over the last few days for a few stocks.
Went in for the topup
I guess we will see who is right soon enough, but for me things are not as rosy as they were a few months ago, with my watchlist having a lot more red in it than even 2 weeks ago. So with that in mind i'm happy for my spare cash to sit on the sideline waiting patiently for the right opportunity. As you mentioned it, I think oil savings are pretty well baked into the SP by now and the savings have been pretty well baked into flight prices also.
I'll be topping up in the dips (I last did around $2.67) - I just think it has a bit further to dip before I do so.
Have a great weekend all!
[COLOR=#454240 !important]From CNBC "Crude oil options sank at the fastest pace in years on Friday after OPEC decided to keep pumping crude at record rates, prompting traders to unwind bets they had placed ahead of the group's meeting to protect against possible wild fluctuations in futures prices."
it might be good start next week...got my parcel filled on Friday at $2.80, too good to miss out especially close the full year results and possible special divvy to mark 75 years, eh Roger [/COLOR]
AIR has had an amazing run since Jul 2012. Just consider what you're asking from it by buying at these prices. The monthly price chart suggests that an investor putting new money on the table now is prepared to risk their capital for a breakout of the June 2007 high. It may be a wise decision to ponder further why the price capitulated at $3.00 and where it might go to in th near term, before AIR takes on the challenge of an 8 year move above historical highs. Just saying.
I'm a fond believer in fundamentals and those fundamentals have correlated pretty well historically with an average PE of 11ish and I'd say that is with a safety factor (safety factor may sound strange, I'm set in my engineering ways and I'll never change :D) forward earnings are looking good, so when looking at the chart I could make a lot of assumptions about moving averages, resistance levels and patterns. However if they post annual EPS levels of above 30 cps which I think is likely. I don't want to be looking back from the sidelines at the missed opportunity. Plus great dividend, plus great company, plus I'd have a look into these figures and not trust me, plus all that jazz.
Sam
Having flown AIR to Shanghai last month it once again reassured they are the absolute standout airliner, their service is first class and the operate in a very professional manner. Currently only hold a small parcel but have been topping up on retractions. Future is looking bright, strong growth in North/South American routes, forward curve for crude remaining below the LT average and management actively seeking promising opportunities.
Couldn't agree more Roger.
Have listened to Chris Luxon on Larry Williams(Newstalk ZB) business show few times in the evenings and he comes across as such an inspiring leader with clear vision for the company. He's a pleasure listen to albeit you are a shareholder or not, very articulate.
PS: Good luck Roger for the SCL meeting and look forward to yours and Percy's thoughts on the same.
I wasn't impressed by my Shanghai flight in business a few weeks ago. I thought the food has reallly slipped. Especially the south bound breakfast. Wine was excellent of course. FSM was also excellent, but I had problem understanding two of the other staff. It sure didn't feel like a NZ airline. The 777-200 without re-fit is showing it's age too.
Yes, an excellent airline but for that business price,you must get it right every time.
Sure Sam, times for AIR are good atm but keep at the back of your mind that Airline shares are cyclical stocks..Cyclic stocks always look terrific during econonic good times (rockstar economies:)) but they can turn bad very quickly...Google cyclic stocks and read about cyclical stock behaviour.
AIR's past has been a textbook example of a cyclical stock and since AIR is still the same animal (Airline business), us investors should expect that cyclical type behaviour to continue in the future.
AIR performance atm is running true to the cyclical stock behavioural pattern, it has been in a very strong primary uptrend since July 2012 (typically out performs the market) and AIR's shareprice has so far risen +300% all within this so-called NZ's "rockstar" economy period.
Cyclical Stocks behave cyclically, in other words history repeats (with differing degrees). Being cyclical means it keeps on repeating. These stocks can be great investments when you keep to the specific discipline that at some point no matter how much you love this stock you will realise your profits and then stay out for half of the next cycle pattern when these cyclical stocks typically under-performs the market.
History of when fundamental forward analysis went horribly wrong in 1999
when the NZ economic boom wound down in 1999 the stock brokers forecasts were still very optimistic (considering professional people should know all about cyclical stock behaviours when the western world economy comes off the boil and enters recession).. but I think at the time the analysts heads were clouded with optimism, with Air NZ having recently joined the Star Alliance, the looming Sydney Olympics and AIR's booming current business performance with PE of ~8... Analysts average forecast for the following year 2001 was projected for $219.9m and a forecast PE of just under 6, a dividend of 15c/s (7.5%) using that current shareprice...great analytical news eh?..so why was the chart diverging showing that the price had already topped out around the $4.30 mark way back in mid 1997 which turned into a primary downtrend breaking TA $3.00 supports in Jan 1998?
My earlier post (Post#2255 15th Feb 2015) diagram shows part of the answer with history.. the red arrows show the 2001 brokers forecast of 219.9 being downgraded to a -10.3M forecast the following year when the broker factored in the previous "unforeseen" 2000-2001 recession.
My opinion here is that when dealing with cyclical stocks the state of the various Country's economies seem to be the major factor (see typical cyclical stock histories), therefore a major part of investors focus should be on the present state of countries economies that AIR is involved in rather than on brokers or everyone elses fundamental forward projections..OK Ansett had a lot to do with Air NZ woes back in 2001 but remember Ansett was a cyclic stock too..
The interesting thing back in 1998 was that charting actually gave investors an early warning signal to sell shares while the brokers (fundamental foreward projections) gave investors the thumbs up to buy more shares.
Economy is hardly rock star, anything but and yet we see from the most recent monthly operating stat's that RPK's are up strongly as are load factors.
Could it be that air fares are now so cheap in real terms that people think nothing of getting on a plane and whipping down to Chch for a day to see their friends ?
Lots of new immigrants are also adding fuel to the domestic engine and with tourism growing strongly and potentially even stronger now we're a bit cheaper from a lower currency all those tourists coming here are feeding into the domestic network.
I've flown a fair bit lately around the country and everywhere you go the planes are near to full capacity.
I think you may be onto something here. I think nothing these days of whipping up to Auckland whereas in the past it would have required a lot more consideration. Although I generally do only pay for the "seat only" cheap flights and will not pay $300 for a one way to Auckland from Wellington unless another is paying.
Contrary to buying cheap seats. On business trips, I am quite happy to pay for the full price - so that I have flexibility with times and dates. Thoroughly believe in it's worth.
On holidays, I am also happy to fork out an extra few dollars for the premium seats or if the Star Alliance upgrades are unavailable.
I question whether the cheap seats are where profits are generated or whether they are seat fillers that is icing to the cake.
On a side note.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/6...with-air-india
With comments this being a cyclic stock, I agree with those sentiments. I suffered significant losses arising from the the downturn in 2008/2009 - rising crude oil prices at the time.
Now with falling oil prices and comments from OPEC and Iran that they intend to increase supply - will the great run by Air NZ be further extended?
Add to that fuel efficient airplanes and codeshares - don't forget the direct GPS routing system that they have been touting (more fuel savings).
Look forward to hearing members views on tis.
Good post Hoop, I understand the essence of your post however in your prior post that you've linked to (and correct me if I'm mistaken) but wasn't the problem back then the company under performing broker expectations greatly? Now I also understand that history can repeat itself and that we could see a result greatly below broker's forecasts and investor expectations. Well I like to think I'm not too attached to this stock as to not get out when I see results that aren't to my liking. Until that time AIR doesn't seem to be putting out information detrimental to what I would call an undervalued price. So to address what I should keep in the back of my mind, I'm with AIR for a good time, not a long time :)
Sam
Hi Guys
good debate stuff
Yeah there's been some big fundamental positives lately.
Sharp..yes falling oil prices should have a positive effect but I've charted AIR price with Oil price several times over the years and there's little to no medium term coallation..so there is a theoretical anomally here... The only explainations I can think of why there's lack of correlation to the shareprice is:-1... the hedging strategy AIR prevents the airline from benefiting immediately from the drop...It seems some airlines which have either no hedging e.g China airways or a lesser ratio hedging policy in place may gain a competitor advantage during this period 2.....Sometimes a falling oil price is a result of a global recession..A terrible time for most businesses with lack of demand . 3.....the oil price, accounts for a third of AIR running costs,so the benefits could be masked by other unrelated negative factors effecting AIR shareprice
The other positive is the lower NZ$...I continually read the chairman reports bitching about the high dollar..yet NZ$ fluculations produces another theoretically anomally as there is again little to no correlation over the medium term when charted with AIR shareprice price..The only explanations I can think of is...1 when the NZ$ drops it often coincides with a downturn in the NZ economy (and/or developed nations). 2...the NZ$ fall benefits are masked by other negative factors effecting AIR shareprice.
However both positives do have very short term market positive effects such as same day media announcement but Mr Market then seems to forget.
Yep Roger being shareholders it always nice to see full planes and lots of them..eh:) ..hope this continues...
It would be good to hear Roger and Modandm weigh in their opinions on some of this. I'm somewhat surprised about the sustained downward pressure since seeing $3, esp with the oil price recovery falling over. What looked like finicky holders scrambling to realise some profits at a high point seems to have continued longer and lower than I was expecting.
Relax everybody. Chris is relaxed.
Attachment 7402
A couple of years ago there was some rumour regarding AKL-BOM, but Luxon stated that the sacrifice of passengers/cargo would be too great to enable this route. The code-sharing arrangement (thankfully with another *A carrier) makes good sense. I can't see AIR entering that market directly.
http://www.afr.com/business/transpor...0150608-ghjf3c
Guys and girls. See above.
Just as well there's an eight year lead time on many new aircraft models then isn't it :)
Not much to add at this stage other than the market has been generally soft since AIR hit $3. Surely nobody expects smooth flying conditions all the time ?
Suggest people keep a close eye on the monthly operating statistics. I was very impressed with the last set. What other business tells you its load factors, RPK's and yield on a monthly basis.
Surely this is all the evidence people need to know that this bird is flying very sweetly indeed.
Roger, you have said this before but this is only one side of supply/demand balance.
Airlines only need to hang on to their older gas guzzling planes for longer to add extra capacity, something low oil prices makes desirable.
Even Air NZ have said they are looking to do this with their 767s, witness the extra 767 flights to Perth just announced.
I agree Hoop, in the medium term there is little correlation between oil prices, exchange rates and airline share prices. Capacity and price changes are to elastic for that.
To me, the drivers of Air NZ's share price growth have been:
- Excellent management over more than a 10 year period across most areas of the business. e.g. Staff morale, new planes, route optimisation and now well chosen and executed route expansion.
- Increase in NZ's attractiveness as a tourist destination driven by LOTR and The Hobbit. Especially in the US.
- Free trade agreement with China and relaxing of Chinese travel restrictions.
- Commerce Commission's willingness to accept the argument that for NZ the benefits outweigh the costs of Airline alliances. Air NZ's alliances with Virgin Australia, Cathay Pacific and now Singapore Airlines are very profitable.
- Rational competitor behaviour, especially from a weak Qantas/JetStar group.
- High migration to and from NZ
- Economic growth in NZ
No doubt there are more, but these are the areas I am looking at for Air NZ's future fortunes. So far so good.
Current low fuel prices and interest rates are certainly boosting airline profits at the moment.
Over the years though even though airlines has always been a growth industry it generally shows a chronic lack of profitability. The problem has always been that capacity has always grown at rates that are unrelated to the underlying growth in demand.
These days there does seem to be more discipline in that respect, hence the current increase in load factors ......an additional boost to profits
When cyclical factors such as fuel prices and interest rates turn against airlines that discipline needs to remain.
On another thread Blackcap posted about our changing attitude to flying.Today we think nothing of flying here there and everywhere.
I know 5 to 10 years ago it was a huge deal for me to think of going to Auckland to buy books, or do business.$500 to $700 and perhaps $120 for a motel for the night.Today I can get return fights for under $100.Rental car for $80 for a day.[In fact I have a $48 return flight booked]On Monday Noodles and Roger flew from Auckland to ChCh for the Scales ASM.My friend was given tickets to the "field days" so has decided to fly up for them.Grandparents are flying to visit the grand children.With the prices coming down more people are flying.
So make it affordable and people will use it.Growing market makes it easier for a well run airline to get it right.AIR have the right management,the right aircraft and are investing to provide better facilities and service.
Percy - so right but many in the provinces would say they are missing out on the fun
That sounds like a virtuous cycle: increased profits leads to increased capacity leads to lower airfares leads to more people flying leads to increased profits... There may be some truth to that but it has to break down somewhere. Also, I just wonder how vulnerable AIR are now to competitors: budget airlines whose main costs are fuel and airlines that do not have fuel hedges in place? I'm holding so just playing "devil's advocate"
Coming back from Brisbane yesterday I saw something I haven't seen for a while.....an empty seat !...just one though and it was on the codeshare Virgin plane so might not be an indication of bail out time yet !
Interesting article this morning: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11462743 - what are peoples thoughts here for AIR?
Down to $2.75... I just want to top up more and more but it is already so overweight in my portfolio and these lower prices keep coming. Market really doesn't want to touch that $3 mark it seems.
Interesting:
"American Airlines, which merged with US Airways, last year adopted that carrier's policy of not hedging, which allowed American to take full advantage of the steep plunge in fuel prices. The result was more than $600 million in fuel savings for American Airlines for 2014, with even bigger savings expected this year if fuel costs stay low. "We believe 2015 will be yet another record year, exceeding the earnings from 2014," Parker said."
Damn those Yanks eh?
AIR have very little fuel hedging in place for FY16.
Spoke to the GM of one of the major Australian owned real estate franchises yesterday who's flying all around N.Z. all the time visiting their various braches...everywhere you go planes are full or very close to full he said.
8 years lead time for many new aircraft doesn't stop existing operators deploying existing aircraft on new routes.
Plenty of people were calling some of the regional routes served by the Beechcraft 19 seat aircraft as a rip off have now been proved to be wrong as AIR has withdrawn unprofitable services and those same people in many cases now face flying with single engine single pilot op's which clearly have a different safety level...so be careful what you wish for you people who live in remote area's. Nelson not remote but there's obviously more efficiencies flying 170+ seat A320's than smaller planes.
AIR on a prospective PE of 7 times FY16 earnings v market average of 18 times for the NZX50. People will believe its either cyclical or that we are entering a golden era where baby boomers will think nothing of travelling here there and everywhere. All depends upon which way you're looking at things.
Bargain time ?...you be the judge.
er, make that 128%
What presents as better value ? is the question I keep coming back too no matter how much altitude one has gained on this bird.
In exactly three weeks time they start enjoying what are ostensibly unhedged and much lower average effective oil prices than previously paid. They also have excellent forward cover on currency.
I'm loving this SP air pocket they've hit, just waiting for a few more nervous nellies to want to jump ship and then...
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11462743
In a statement the airlines said ''the enhanced relationship also provides opportunities for future growth into trans-Pacific markets not currently served by either airline, such as New Zealand.''
Competition on the Auckland to West Coast USA routes has always been one of AIR's major risks. The competition is now knocking at the door. It seems inevitable that a QF-AA operation through Auckland will follow on from this new revenue sharing arrangement and this will hurt AIR's profits.
It would seem the market agrees.
The AIR shareprice may find it up hill from here longer term.