...yes, 725 seems too low now and SPX500 could trade up to close to *800; but *640 still in the cards
Kind Regards
Printable View
well it is showing some very positive signs that bottom is in for the A wave.
price has rallied in a very impulsive manner , markedly different to previous rally attempts.
the crowd seems very sceptical which again suggests B wave rally underway.
very overbought and therefore expecting a temporary pull back.
intial target reached and have closed long position , a cautious move as i am still bullish but daily printed a shooting star and not too far away from an unconfirmed down trend line.
i am labelling this move wave 1 and expecting a retracement from here but expecting 6469 to hold , in fact i think it will be a shallow retracement.
waiting for another long entry.
The subwave 4 could have ended already
My bearish ideas
VIX has formed a inverse head and shoulders over the last week. i now doubt the VIX will see above 60 if we have a subwave 5 which i doubt the spx will go below 600
On monday selling was a little fierce in the last few hours GS was a leader. SPX Futures currently up 1% from the close could be a bear flag.
There is a daily topping candle on the SPX todays volume was higher than the previous 3 days
at the moment im keeping my powder dry
:confused:Frosty boy, patterns in VIX?? Isn't it a measure of volatility and as such, not really a market? Please enlighten me...
...most likely a retest of SPX500 *775 (minimum), possibly as high as *790+ developing;
if test fails, SPX500 *640 (61.8% retracement of the 1973-2007 rally) or *606 (Jul 1996 low) most likely, before a multi-month sucker's rally can develop;
...fundamentally however, long term !!!BE AWARE!!! it is Bernanke and CO Ltd. at work again and these guys are well known for a shoddy finish; enjoy the ride but get off, when things are starting to get complacent
Trading Strategy: safest = sideline or SPX500 short *791 to hedge equity exposure
Kind Regards
...after today's SPX500 close it is possible, decline starting October 2007 bottomed on 6th. March 2009;
...however, Friday is quadruble option expiry and Equinox, volatility likely to be very high; and there are some very real counter trend forces still playing in the market, which, if they continue, will jeopardize the current rally;
Kind Regards
The old bottom (7500) which is now a resistence level has been respected..
....hmmmm interesting...sort of dampens this latest media hype of a quick large bearmarket rally
Dead "MEOW" bounce! :eek: