no particular reason but my gut is telling me this could be a management buyout,just given the amount of cash floating around.
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no particular reason but my gut is telling me this could be a management buyout,just given the amount of cash floating around.
Haha, maybe ;)
If a takeover is looming - and there seems to be more consensus on this forum now that the results have been delayed that a pending takeover is most likely why - then let us hope Ogg's idea of a threeway between IFT, Discovery and NBCUniversal comes true.
If Discovery end up nabbing TV3 I would think they are in the drivers seat for grabbing Sky. Comcom and OIO approval is a given for them (or NBCUniversal for that matter).
IFT should get approval too, but I think the Comcom would still scrutinise merging Sky with an existing telco harder than a big US Company that will buy Sky and turn it into another telco (and therefore, more competition).
As much as I want a bidding war, you would have to think Infrail are in the drivers seat here. They're the most logical buyer. They are cashed up and wanting to take on Spark with the cricket rights.
I'm thinking this is all going to be wrapped up rather quickly. It's likely OSB was part of the condition, hence why that is being spin off now.
30c does seem a far way off from here but like what a user here before suggested, the Opus takeover was done at an almost 100% premium. It's gotta be somewhere in the mid 20's you would think to get support from Jupiter, ACC and Kiltearn, who are all long term sufferers of the stock.
Big boys aren't selling here. Ignore all the short term price movements of the stock. Wait for the big announcement...it's coming.
I'm tipping a Mediaworks/Sky/Vodafone mega merger. Like what I've said all along.
Hence why the Mediaworks sale announcement is taking so long.
Hence why Sky results have been pushed out to 10th September.
Only question is, will there be any crumbs for retail investors here?
How big is this ‘mountain of cash’?
Absolutely agree with the strong case presented as to why IFT should be the one to by Sky. And it may well be that they surface as the buyer in the next few weeks.
The only reason I wonder now is because of the speculation about Discovery buying TV3. I don't really see why you would want to just buy TV3...unless you are buying Sky too.
So of the media speculation is correct (and it may be absolute bs) and Discovery are at the final stages of buying TV3...securing that asset, merging it with Sky and then turning it into a telco that can seriously compete with the big boys (Spark and Vodafone) would be a compelling prospect. Possibly the best outcome for consumers.
Discovery buying Mediaworks does put a thorn in my "theory", but they are just rumors. If it was Discovery you would have thought they would have bought it by now.
I think Discovery were just the backup plan for Brooksfield if their lawyers said a mega merger wouldn't get ComCom approval. Maybe the lawyers have gone over everything now and are confident a mega merger would get the green light. In other words Brooksfield were just stringing along Discovery.
Maybe Discovery are buying Mediaworks, but only on the condition that Infratil/Brooksfield get Sky. Maybe that's why Sky pushed out results to the 10th September, so that they can get ComCom clearance for OSB, and also Discovery can get ComCom clearance for Mediaworks. Then on the 10th of September it all goes unconditional.
Infratil/Brooksfield would have to finalize the purchase of Sky, but with Discovery out of the way it's clean sailing for them.