Its a competitve market in Australia and New Zealand already. Amazon just cant ship from Australia, on all items especially on those under a $100, or bulky items, and remain competitive with NZ suppliers all times. Just unrealistic. Ebay has been in NZ for quite a few years now but Trademe keep going strong. The Warehouse, not only has its red sheds but it also has Stationery, Noel Leemings, Torpedo 7, Pet.co, a fitness online seller, etc. The redsheds are contributing less and less to the overall turnover. Their online sales and one day deals are going from strength to strength. The fact that they own less and less of their retail shops, can only mean that they are ready to change their format in the future. When I buy from the warehouse I am secure in the knowledge that they stand behind their guarantee, and sale. You can scaremonger all you like, but I think the impact will be felt more by those independant shops who already are feeling the pinch quite markedly, and their premises will be turned into a cafe or restaurant. (So many of those around now)
No doubt there will always be an impact from another player in the market, and that is always the way and always has been. When there is money to be made another player will enter the market.
I have been buying from Ali Express and E bay for so many years now, but I also still buy from the warehouse. Sometimes you just cant wait a moth for the item and also while its cheap from china, it is sometimes (and not always) cheap and crap. To get what you want online from china sometimes you have to spend more to get exactly what you want. So many features and varieties of stuff around. As an example, I bought a IP camera on one day deals "warehouse" for $40, and it worked first time installed first time, I then bought a similar one from China for $25 including postage. The instructions were crap, it wouldnt connect, just rubbish. That was money down the drain, they said I could get my money back as long as I posted it back to China. They of course would not reimburse my postage costs, and it had to go tracked. I bought another on trade me for $40. Similar story, just crap, couldnt get my money back. I had to consider just where there was value for money. So I dont think that the Warehouse is not going to go broke anytime soon.
But saying that, growth over the next five years may be limited, so they need to become more efficient, cut costs, and work on their marketing and profitibility. I think that is what they are doing.