expanded flat currently in a c wave
multi year trendline to break and then heading for at least 60 and probably quite quickly
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expanded flat currently in a c wave
multi year trendline to break and then heading for at least 60 and probably quite quickly
Hi DB
Thanks for the EW count and summary.
That pretty much agrees with the conclusion in my post and chart #956
......................Could be a nice southern flight (for a flightless bird).
arco
i do find it weird when the b of the abc goes above 5 tho..
Know what you mean Peat........
In expanded flats, wave B of the 3-3-5 pattern terminates beyond the starting level of wave A, and wave C ends more substantially beyond the ending level of wave A
http://www.elliottwave.com/club/memb...es/fig1-37.gif
Dr Who
You will need to ask a fundamentalist that question.
...........My trading is based on technical analysis
rgds -arco
Hi Peat
Thanks for posting that interesting note from Max........seems to mirror roughly the early stages of my chart idea from post #956.
Only time will tell.............
arco
so i averaged in at 7120 during the pull back last evening. 1/4 closed at +90 stop raised to 7170 for the remainder.
.
Nice one Peat. Good when a plan comes together.
I was also long Euro.......TP got hit overnight.
rgds-arco
Spotted this on the hourlies last night. A busted ascending triangle with a false breakout, complete with RSI divergence. Looking OK on the dailies as well. Up 40 odd pips so far.
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/picture...5&pictureid=41
Just picking up a bit of USD strength after the Lehman brothers bankruptcy. I'm short at 6582 SL at 6623.
Trailing very aggressively this trade, if even a hint of reversal comes up I'm out.
Not sure if you are still in or out AMR.....
I took +50 pips before retiring, leaving a balance on (with target 126 pips) but it got stopped at +5.
Still a nice win and a good day on a few others as well.
Was up 40 odd pips at one stage but decided to let it run. Stopped out at -18 pips. Ah well, "letting it run" clearly isn't a good idea in this market.
Kiwi just fell off a cliff
Looks like a 400+ pip swing until it recovered a bit.
I'd have to say that's the biggst single day swing I recall ever seeing with the Kiwi
Anyone know the cause of the big dip today?
Some news coming up
So y'day I thought I put my hand to the challenging Kiwi... 4 trades of which the first two failed.
The first short was off a very small time frame gartley (not drawn) but got stopped only because I moved the stop down from its original placement above the green line.
The second long also failed but the final two longs off the gartley in green and yellow worked a treat while I slept.
I ve also been keeping an eye in NZDUSD.
IT is bad news for NZ economy for USD weakness. Export is our only saviour. If our export sector gets hit and there is a drought, I would hate to see what will happen to the NZ economy.
Not that I take much notice of polls, but spotted this today on Stuff
A recent Reuters poll put the kiwi weakening toward US52c-US53c in the first part of 2009.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/4811020a13.html
time to change direction again and go short as we bounce off the 78% retracement of the high at just below .61 stop could conservatively be placed just above .60 (the recent high) but the rules say 61 (X).
strange that the gartley in the previous trade was misshapen in the same way that this one on the bigger time frame (1 hour) is with normal XA but an extended AB. could mean somethings wrong so I'm not recommending this trade to others but I'm doing it. risking last nights spoils.
sorry about the quotes in the pic... having a few display problems
trade on post #985 looking to start the payback now after testing .6040 (so a conservative stop would have been hit - as I said its best to play with the proper rules). Another thing to notice is that there was a 78% retracement of the spike up and perhaps another way of trading this is to wait for that and then sell at that level OR to wait for the C wave of that bit to go lower than the A wave and sell there...
Would have been a nice short at 60 cents. I was close to shorting it, but decided not to after talking to a friend. :(
You are right about that. I don't think a lot of people take the USD problems seriously. Obama just announced that the US is likely to run $ Trillion deficits for many years to come . . . that sounds pretty dollar negative to me.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/07/us...a.html?_r=2&hp
TBH I dont think you can take that sort of prediction (John Key)seriously - especially not from a traders perspective. its more like an economists prediction which may work for companies putting a hedging programme in place but wont work for traders unless they have very deep pockets (soon to be emptied).
Also, he really should keep his trap shut on these matters now that he is PM. Its so wrong for him to be jawboning the markets
ABN Amro suggested in their December newsletter that the Kiwi might go to 48 in 2009 but thought it wouldnt go much lower than that. But yeh this is not useable information for me.
2/3rd closed 10 pips shy of target at .5830 from sell at .5958 :D
Should I short NZD today at .5940?
I would be careful. I'm am not a currency trader but if the USD resumes it's slide lower with any gusto in the weeks ahead, that's likely to drive the AUD and NZD higher short term . . . hope I'm not missing something here but shorting might not work too well. Personally I would stay away from currencies at the moment, too much market risk and volatility. Just my opinion though.
coming announcements
What do you guys think about going long on NZDUSD for a few weeks at around the 52 cent mark?