Watching for an oversold bounce with that ASX gap down open...
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Watching for an oversold bounce with that ASX gap down open...
no doubting growth blah blah blah what FPH is worth is what a reasonable PE to use (the simple methodology, like the lazy man's DCF)?
Currently at about 37 .... not much lower than a few years ago.
Market saying thats reasonable ..... so no worries about today's share price
Heard an interesting turn of phrase on CNBC the other day I'd never heard before. "Dead cats bounce best". Maybe Johnny the Horse uses the old dead cat bounce theory with his day trading ? https://www.thebalance.com/how-to-da...rategy-1031479
I tend to keep my high PE stocks to a minimum, but It is tempting to buy some more of these at this price. It's nearly at pre-covid pricing...There is still a reasonable risk of new variants popping up that elevate hospitalizations, almost seems like punters think covid is over and have tunnel visioned on the impending interest rate rises. Have to think about it I guess.
Kind of similar concept, but not always. Essentially you are looking to buy at the point of maximum fear and capitulation (using RSI on various timeframes and price action), when there is no one left to sell and then FOMO arrives as it starts bouncing.
In this case I was using it for a dead cat bounce, but I regularly use it during strong uptrends to add to long term positions e.g. if we are forming a monthly bull flag (i.e. very strong long term uptrend) and daily RSI hits oversold then I am a buyer (obviously some more subtleties to it). As an example I used this to hoover up HGH in the low $1.70's last April, when people were panicking and wondering why on earth the price was dropping from $2 (oh yes I could smell the fear).
someone mopped the floor at the end of trading
Yikes NZD:USD ‘marching towards’ 70 cents ……and one media commentator say likely to be over 73 cents mid year
A few weeks ago it was 65 something and heading lower
Might trim Fph profits a bit
Analysts broadly trimmed their valuations and target prices for F&P – now ranging between $24 and $30 – but held onto a positive view of the stock in the long term.
Jarden upgraded the stock from ‘neutral’ to ‘overweight’ now that the share price had corrected due to the inevitable fall in revenue that comes with fewer hospitalisations.
Analyst Adrian Allbon said he was still confident in the stock’s longer-term growth as it had placed lots of hardware in hospitals during the pandemic.
With recent falls comes some upgrades too ....Jarden upgrading to overweight should carry some weight ...
Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer Lewis Gradon said, “Our second half hospital consumables revenue is currently tracking to be similar to the hospital consumables revenue that we reported in the first half of the 2022 financial year. This is consistent with reports of the increasing prevalence of the Omicron variant over the last two months and its associated lower respiratory intervention requirements, as well as a relatively mild flu season in the Northern Hemisphere.
This states that hospital consumables segment did same as last half thus Hardware sales drop was the main reason of the shortfall which we could make out from big drop in NZ exports numbers
2023 maybe most difficult to forecast year as hardware sales will drop further and consumables are only used when hospitalisations happen and endemic covid or milder covid versions become more prevalent .
So IMO another adjustment year ahead ...only from 2024 it will be truly back on track like before with yearly guidance and over achievements
Fisher and Paykel Healthcare falls another 4% after downgrade
“The downgrades for next year were pretty big, you’re seeing numbers of around 20 per cent downgrades for 2023 earnings, so that’s big.”
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/ind...fter-downgrade
got to remember these broking houses are not going to out right say sell as its not in there interests
Like those profit forecasts .....esp 2024 onwards when all are saying things like resuming the past trajectory path blah blah
Good thing is that 2024 profit is 20%/25% above the 2012 to 2019 trajectory path ..... so a new steeper tarjectory path is being formed - probably the residual value of covid gains
Good stuff - share price $50 sooner than couta thinks
This should help tho Winner:
Attachment 13640
I'm pretty keen to own some of these...can never get myself over the line tho as dividend a bit lower than I would ideally like.
Not sure we are there yet either....will keep mulling it over.
Attachment 13641
UBS: Our Sell rating reflects overvaluation, ongoing earnings risk and a rotation away from COVID-19 outperformers
Downgrade from $23.50 to $21.90 Recommendation Sell
Haha UBS the biggest gameplayers and manipulators around, they were huge offenders with A2, I'd trust the 4 traders avg concensus hugely over them any day(Just noticed the low target on 4 traders is $21.90 so its probably UBS so you always chuck out the lowest offer)
Never buy a stock in a downtrend... never try to catch a falling knife... generally very good rules to live by. But is there a way to try pick a bottom without getting s**t on your fingers?
Moments of extreme fear (i.e. large drops) actually provide a greatrisk/reward opportunity to try and pick a long term bottom. Let me show you how I take advantage of these extreme fear scenarios to take establish essentially risk free long term positions.
The Basis for My Entry
Fundamentals:
- FPH is considered a 'best of breed' stock on the NZX. It always trades at a premium. Funds love it and don't like to be underweight on it. It has a strong history of performance
- Recent FPH downgrade has brought weakness. Short term fundamentals appear to have weakened, long term still appear strong
- I want a long term position in this stock in case it returns to glory. Fundamentals aren't where I have an edge over the market (acknowledge your own weaknesses), so I will rely on my technical expertise
Technicals:
- Daily RSI is oversold (below 30). FPH historically has strong bounces after each daily oversold level. Refer to daily chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/vTfkihfG/
- Weekly RSI is oversold (below 30). It has not reached oversold since FPH began its massive bull trend 10 years ago. Previous RSI lows have been very good long term buying points, or at least seen large rallies
- Acknowledge the limitations of RSI. This is a news driven event, which means RSI levels can go to much more extreme levels. It can always go lower.
- We are in a daily, weekly and monthly downtrend. Doesn't really get more bearish than that. Weekly chart showing break of significant support line: https://www.tradingview.com/x/sgRGU2Xn/
You've probably just read that last line and think I'm absolutely mad looking for a position, but stick with me.
The Strategy
Extreme fear scenarios almost always lead to an oversold bounce. The reliability of these bounces means that if I can build a position around the fear lows, I can sell a portion of my position very quickly into a bounce. I can set my stoploss below the low, with the profit from the position I have sold covering the loss on the remaining position if my stoploss triggers. I am risk free on the long term position (unless there's a gap down). I think it's more likely than not that my stoploss will trigger at some point (daily, weekly, monthly downtrend), however I want this position in case this is the bottom.
Sounds easy, but trading oversold bounces is an extremely difficult skill to develop and really you never stop learning... each one is slightly different. Build your position at the wrong point and boy it can absolutely blow up in your face. This is a very aggressive strategy. Let's zoom in an have a look.
The FPH Trade
I want 5min, 15min, and hourly RSI all oversold and as low as possible. I want fear and liquidations.
Day 1: with news driven drops I am not interested in a bounce on the first day (unless I quick day trade).
Day 2: Big gap down open, lower volume on open. I am not so interested on 2 day as the day to set the bottom, however the gap down has me looking for a bounce (which I day traded, but that's another story).
Day 3: Right, I'm interested.
Plan A
Based on the action from Day 2, I thought I may have missed my optimum 'enter on fear' position. https://www.tradingview.com/x/anK8Yt5U/ Looking at the hourly chart, (day 2 covered by the Fib retracement chart) you will see a strong bounce off the open,an hourly lower high set the next candle, a drop to hold the lows, then a 62% bounce retracement on larger volume (this is critical). I thought it was likely that the low was in, so my entry would now be looking for an hourly pullback (I'm not buying as it's going up as I need support to play off to manage risk) to form an hourly higher low (an hourly equilibrium had formed).
On the ASX open, we pulled back into that key 2260 area which should see support. I'm in. Stop below 2250, as if that breaks I am back to waiting for more fear. This isn't my ideal setup, so I'm very quick to sell half in the 2270's to get close to risk free on the very next 1min candle. Long story short, I got stopped out and we were going lower (small loss). Over to Plan B.
Plan B
With the break of the previous days low I now want fear to come back. Let's look at a 1min chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/qRm1AevB/
Rather than a flush, we see a slow grind down, forming a falling wedge. These are great bottoming patterns, they show sellers running out of momentum on each new bear break. Looking at the green bubble, I take my 1st position at the drop the the wedge support line with the volume spike. I am not aggressive here as 5min RSI is not that oversold... we can keep going much lower. And lower we do go. I did actually think this might be the low after that bounce on the 1min chart and I'd miss building a big enough position. I note the volume here is quite light compared to the bounce the day before (increasing confidence of a bounce).
The orange box is where I'm getting much more interested. 2nd position on the falling wedge support line. The bounce off this confirms the upper resistance wedge line. We reject off that resistance line and hold that previous low for 4 candles. We also have elevated volume. 3rd position. I can handle 2 more positions, but if 2214 breaks I'm stopping out of 1 position (so I can buy lower if it's going to keep dropping, or else I'm in trouble). I immediately sell 1 position as we near 1min resistance at 2230. I am now essentially risk free on the remaining position (what I intend to hold). The size of the 5 min bounce tells me the low should be in for the short term. Here's the 5min chart perspective: https://www.tradingview.com/x/SKixNlys/
Looking Ahead
This hourly bounce has retraced 75% from the low to the previous hourly high. This tells me that hourly low is not likely to break in the short term. The most likely scenario is that we reject below the previous hourly high at 2300, to form an hourly higher low and then a trend change. This can be another excellent entry point for a daily bounce (which I probably will to get another position or two). However with the setup of the daily chart I would not be surprised if we blow through it. https://www.tradingview.com/x/DX3v8ZA1/
Daily daily chart is a bullish hammer candle (reversal pattern): https://www.tradingview.com/x/OfuTUQnI/ The size of the bounce on the daily chart determines the probabilities of what happens next. If we reject around the 38% retracement level, then a bear flag is likely and further lows expected. If we get to the 50% region or above then we can expect an equilibrium to play (which may then either resolve upwards or downwards).
I expect I'll get stopped out at some point. I am day trading this too so will book profit on the daily bounce.
Please do not try to replicate this as you will more than likely get yourself smoked. It takes a lot of practice. What I've outlined here is only a portion of what I'm looking at and doesn't give the entire picture.
Thanks JT. Good luck mate
2 year low today, shine definately gone for now along with the Covid threat !!
I thought the same with XRO when it went from $45 down to $12, well take a look at me now, check out its PE to boot. The Covid threat is far from gone, unlike A2 i would never sell this high quality company with a worldwide market for a permanent loss, I will get to work shorting my own shares once I have finished doing so with a certain other long term hold.
I am surprised that JTH's bounce didn't materialise and it keeps making newer lows ...must be getting close to attractive ...even W69 is now positive LT
But u never know with FPH ...it always overshoots a lot both sides ...
Down $4.47 or a whopping 16% in just one week !
The plain fact of the matter is that while this is a very good company, no doubt about that, but based on Friday's closing price and the average forecast of the brokers its still trading on a whopping 41 times FY23 earnings. https://www.marketscreener.com/quote...30/financials/
On a fundamental basis, even after a pretty serious decline that's still really, really expensive and of the course on a TA basis the downtrend is very well established. Catching a falling knife is a very risky game to play. I think there's plenty more scope for this downtrend to run for quite a while yet.
If you go back and have a look at the long term price chart RTM kindly posted at #2418 its only got to overshoot a little bit on the downside of that long term trend line and $20 looks a very real prospect. If it overshoots by a fair bit ~ $17 is a chance.
People with fresh capital to deploy here would do well to consider sitting on their paws until there's a confirmed bottoming process and a new uptrend starts.
Any share has the scope to fall to zero given any number of different circumstances just like your life could end on any given day under a number of different circumstances, it is what it is.
Its about prudent risk management and using TA and FA to outperform the market, that's what it's all about on here.
Some people would be better off in several managed funds and ETF's, that much has become perfectly obvious to me over the years.
2022 is going to be a very tough year for a lot of stocks in my opinion. High PE stocks are very vulnerable to rising 10 year Govt stock rates undermining their value. 2022 has been all about capital preservation so far this year and I think its likely to remain that way for much of the rest of the year.
All reports say FPH revenues down 13% and that’s what has spooked investors
Reality is second half sales down 25% …..huge ….wouldn’t want to see another half year like this would we.
Downgrades come in __________. This has a wicked bad chart, 200EMA about to cross down through 400EMA (people think 50/200 is bad). Over halfway through the Covid March 2020 panic selldown now. More than 400 trading days since the lofty high and 38% down. This has been going on for a long time now, initially leakage with strong support rebounds but lower highs, but lately that's well and truely over, with the steep down days on sizeable volume. There is no obvious technical support until the Covid low around $21, assuming it holds.
Jeez, not often BaaBaa says ‘wicked bad’
When all say bad for fundamentally good stock then must be good time to start buying .... As long as business model good and management quality top notch ...then it will come back in a big way .
This may not be time to FEAR .
But DYOR and listen to your own Masters ...:D
And For Bars view..
F&P Healthcare's (FPH) FY22 downgrade marks the first genuine insight into what the transition to a post COVID world may look like,
and it's not a good start. We estimate that 2H22 EBIT will be down ~-50% versus 2H21 (off a high base) and below 2H20 which only
had a modest contribution from COVID-19 demand. Our proprietary revenue proxy also suggests that revenue has decelerated
meaningfully towards the end of 2H22 which adds further questions to what FY23 may look like. We think FY23 is likely to be the
'new base' but believe it could be challenging with significant negative operating leverage, as operating expenses continue to grow and
freight costs are expected to remain elevated while a rebound in revenue may take time to materialise. Looking beyond this,
we continue to see FPH as well positioned to deliver long-term revenue growth and see a return to its long-term margin targets.
Trading on ~46x 12m forward PE, which is a modest premium to peers on an absolute and relative basis, we retain NEUTRAL with a
reduced target price of NZ$25.05.
What's changed?
First time FY22 quantitative guidance provided
FPH provided FY22 revenue guidance of between NZ$1,675m and NZ$1,700m (we estimate implied hospital consumables revenue
of ~NZ$900m and hospital hardware of ~NZ$320m — both of which were below our and consensus expectations). Full year gross
margins are expected to be ~62.5%, with the deviation relative to its long term target (~65%) principally attributable to freight costs.
FPH retained full year SG&A costs guidance for ~+9% growth relative to FY21. Highlighting FPH's ongoing cost investment, we
estimate that 2H22 EBIT will be below 2H20 despite revenue being ~NZ$100m higher with 2H22 likely to be FPH's lowest second
half EBIT margin since 2014 (~25%), down from the elevated base of 38% in 2H21.
What does FY23 look like? Negative operating leverage likely a key feature
The revenue trajectory is the key unknown but we believe FY23 is likely to be the 'new base'. That said, the absolute base level and
subsequent use of its products was made no clearer. There is a wide range of outcomes but we expect it to be a multi-year period
before FPH fully utilises its materially increased base of hospital hardware. Despite this uncertainty we think the trajectory of the
cost base is relatively clear with limited variation irrespective of the revenue path. Consistent with history, we expect FPH to grow
operating expenses by ~+8–10% annually over the medium-term as it continues to invest for growth. While we consider this both a
value add and necessary strategy, it brings with it some short term risks to earnings. At this juncture, we assume downside risk to
FPH's long term EBIT margin target (~30%) and forecast a base of ~27% in FY23 with a gradual recovery over the medium-term.
SP capitulation?
I am going to ride this out and look to add around $20 to lower total holding cost.
Two learnings from holding this stock:
1) I desperately need to learn technical analysis skills. I previously didnt pay much attention to it being a long term investor but its clear you can save yourself lots of coin if you watch the squiggly line. Can anyone recommend any good youtube channels or books?
2) I think i am going to shy away from high P/E stocks in future. Look at HLG, recently announced a 40% drop in NPAT and the SP goes up.. FPH trading on such a high multiple it couldnt afford a drop in sales and margin. Priced for perfection. I'm going to move more weightings to the GARP stocks
Last two years investing have been easy. This year much much harder. Lots of learnings!
Thanks for sharing. Most experienced investors know downgrades normally come in 3's. 46 times FY23 earnings looks FAR too expensive in the circumstances and the drop off in demand late in the half suggests its even potentially worse than a 25% fall looking forward into the next period of trading...not to forget that FPH is still enjoying huge tailwinds from Covid, for now but for how much longer ?. Hmmm
Start by reading this thread Rawz. https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...ries-and-exits
TA is your best tool in times of great uncertainty like this. Anyone with excess hubris about their FA skills who ignores TA completely in these uncertain times is leaving themselves wide open to getting a brutal haircut. Good that you are looking to learn new skills.
Trust me on this mate. The most money is made when both FA and TA say a stock is a buy. When both suggest its a SELL, run for the hills !!
Bigger volume today and big red candle... looks like funds may have made decisions to trim positions after fully analysing things. Great volatility for us traders, even if things didn't go as expected!
OMG - Forbars say a forward PE of 42
If they wrote that last April was about $35 and their guru analysts calculated FY22 EPS was only going to be about 59 cents they would have said 'forward PE of 60' and still said NEUTRAL
share price being down more 30% since then
The much revered Benjamin Graham described “investment” as buying a security at a valuation that is associated with a reasonable expectation of acceptable long-term returns, based on a careful analysis of the relationship between the current price and the assets and cash flows of the business. He also observed, “The habit of relating what is paid to what is being offered is an invaluable trait in investment.” In contrast, “speculation” involves buying a security simply on the expectation that its price will advance. If you are not using well-defined and historically reliable valuation measures as a basis for investment, and you don’t have a well-defined and historically validated basis on which to expect speculative behavior from other investors, you’re probably gambling.
Four ie 4 days in a row down ...from 27.93 to 23.48 ...need some bounce ...fifth is turnaround day ? Very possible ...But its a good entry place for future big gains ....IMHO ...but people want security of only up after buy then need wait till it crosses $ 36 ...:cool:
Yep true investors don't rant on about using TA all the time and following squiggly lines, they buy great companies and hold through the good and bad times and only change their position if the long term story changes, has the long term story changed for FPH? that would be a big fat NO. I'm trying to be one of these investors with my 3 main holdings and thanks Percy and a few others for your constant example regarding this.
The decision analysis used by Traders and Investors is entirely different and the two shouldn't be confused in the same discussion. (Admittedly this is 'Share Trader').
Maybe we need an Investor's thread and a Traders thread.. Long term (or potential) long term holders on one side and day-trader chart line followers on the other.
Genuine investors need pay more attention to management plans of investing $ 700 million in infrastructure to almost double manufacturing capacity over next 5 years ...ie they are looking to have around $ 4 Billion revenues in 5-7 years ...as they are a manufacturing company so they need to plan ahead ...but that shows how much faith they have in their ability to grow . Here its note worthy that FPH management always over delivers ...that is their past golden track record ...that gives their future plans more credibility .
This is the time SP is most depressed for they doing too much in one year ...some will take this opportunity and some will fear this time . Result will be equivalent in future .
Also for many finding investing in Growth stocks painful compared to smaller stocks like HGH / WHS / OCA etc ...high pains = high gains too . So depending on your time horizon 40-60% in growth stocks is not a bad strategy . But all can tailor their own needs .
I prefer long term investing rather then day to day switching in or out ...so for me many current GARP stocks will not be so in near future then need switch out to find new avenues . High yield stocks have their own place especially for going to or already retired people looking for reliable dividend streams but then they dont provide big capital gains .
No one can get best of both worlds ...yield and gains
Coming soon - time to buy to get decent long term returns ..... but why wait ......buy every week until you've got your fill
Chart is annual rate of share price appreciation over 2, 5 and 10 year periods
Past says made decent gains from FPH except buying when price has been ridiculously high (four times if you count 2020) when you've incurred losses
Reckon 18 bucks in May would be cool start point ...... but better buy now in case it doesn't go down that far
Long term there is going to be demand for their products. The global population is getting older and more dependent on tech keeping them alive. This is the lull after all the covid hype and beagle is right, there will prob be a couple more downgrades to come. FPH is a great kiwi success story and they will get it sorted. I’m not holding, but would look if drops to mid-teens.
Agreed....................
Quality is always worth buying/holding ,whether it be shares,houses,art,or whatever.
I admit when I have done really well out of a spec, I recycle the profits into a quality company,and think to myself, it has been great buying it at half price.Fun and very profitable too....lol
Fixed that for you.
Cracks me up the constant battle I see on here between "traders" and "investors". Both styles are extremely profitable and neither is the right or wrong way, but both could learn from each other to become more profitable. The markets are about constant learning. The reality though is that I reckon 80%+ of people, whether investor or trader, are pretty bad at what they do. You aren't insecure about your investment style when you're very good at it.
Why I put ATM in different category then FPH as in my opinion it always had too many eggs in just one basket and that basket too was not very reliable market which could turn at a drop of a pen stroke or some whim etc ...see what happened to Alibaba and Tencent ...51 out of 56 analysts tracking them had buys on them as business was too good to put sell on them ...but they dropped 60% or more due to politics of that only market in which ATM gets all its money ...having over dependence made ATM PE speculative type
Agreed.....................
I have also seen people being very successful just buying booze shares,property shares,tech shares,etc.
Whatever works for you.
I myself find the more research I do the better the results I achieve.Quess that is the same whatever asset you invest in.
Be surprising indeed, Beagle, if FPH is an exception to that observation.
Companies, especially those who have been darlings of the market, do not generally handle earning downgrades well - it is inherent in their DNA that they believe they can easily overcome ‘short’ term’ business & economic aberrations and downgrades are but temporary inconveniences.
Will u consider last result announcement of HGH as downgrade ? As it came below market expectations same as revenue guidance of FPH came below market expectations but not below FPH guidance as they never gave any ...so I will not consider FPH revenue guidance as out of blue " Downgrade " ...it was very much expected after 80+ % overshoot of previous year .
Will I be expecting more bad news in the short term ...very possible till they get that bearing or new base year ...which as already predicted is 2023 ...
All analysts had these numbers forecasted long ago ...path to normalisation after big overshoot was spread over 2-3 years .All already on the horizon .
Yes SP reaction got exaggerated by current market situation of rates / inflation and war etc ...so it went 10-15% below expected lines ...otherwise 50 million less on 1750 consensus is hardly downgrade ...next year 1650 can surely become 1550 ...but 2022 eps consensus of 66 cents and of 2023 of 59 cents will hold or be exceeded most likely ....I will wait for results to see that ...missing earnings by 3-5 % is not that important for FPH in the longer term picture . Also they never guided anything so they are not downgrading anything ...just gave revenue guidance after knowing 11 months figures ...which due to Omicron's mildness resulted in less severe hospitalisations needing respiratory support ...which can change either way ahead but most likely it will keep resolving to become better so dependence on covid hospitalisations ahead will keep becoming less and less .
Original business which had revenues of 1.2 Billion in 2020 will take main stream as normalisation of revenues and earnings will happen . Forecasts and over deliverance will start ...hopefully from 2024 . I can wait till that ...will market keep SP depressed till that is a big question to which all know answer .
Broken clocks are right twice a day or 730 times a year and broken clocks sound so much better than broken records. Lol
HGH is on track to meet the profit guidance for FY22 it gave at the time of the FY21 result in August 2021. There was one erroneous media report that you are regurgitating. The fact is that HGH are also on track to meet analysts and their own forecast for FY22. $93-$96m, about 16 cps and that solid company which grows steadily every year is on a current year PE of less than 14 which marks it out as a classic GARP stock, (Growth at a reasonable price) and that's a very different kettle of fish to this priced by some broker analysis at 46 times next year's earnings.
ASX gap down open onto yesterdays support and descending support line has me in for my next crack at an entry. Already risk free on it. Let's see if this daily bounce can get going today, or whether I get stopped out breakeven again.
We know a bounce is coming to set a daily lower high at some point, which could be 8% from the the lows and still be a bearish continuation pattern (bear flag). The magnitude of that bounce is why I'm very interested.
I know u are a very seasoned Sharetrader ...so u must be knowing to compare apples with apples ...FPH is in medical devices business and that industry has market given forward PE of about 45 ...why that industry has such high PE is another discussion ...so we need to compare FPH PE with its peers not any financial or banking sector peers mate .
HGH PE should be compared by ANZ etc where it belongs ...IMO
Not just one media report mate ....FORBAR latest update after results had its ie HGH target price as $ 1.84 ...
" Beagle won't agree with this but from Forbar ..... but then again it's Forbar after all
HGH has historically traded at an average -12% forward PE discount to its Australian banking peers, which we feel is appropriate given the considerable differences in scale, position in the market, competitive advantage and quality of assets. With HGH now trading at a material premium of +19% to these Australian banking peers, we reiterate our UNDERPERFORM rating. "
Also dont get me wrong ....I hold both though in different portfolios
Haha yeah they use whatever numbers suits their agendas which if your a non holder and heavily posting can only be boredom/downramping or mischief making, I cant be bothered commenting on stocks I don't hold excepting one like A2 which was such a big part of my life for many years. Focusing heavily on PE ratios alone is like watching your speedo as you drive down the road.
I think FPH is an excellent company but short-term the headwinds could be significant. Falling revenue for maybe 18 months as Covid fades should see more than one market disappointment and my guess (that is all it is) is that the share price gets under $20 at some point this year. That, for an investor, would be a good opportunity to own a great business on a 5-10 year time horizon. On my watchlist...
Well said.
Alokdhir - You're the one that brought HGH up in this thread. I'm the one that said based on average broker forecasts FPH is trading on 41 times FY23 earnings.
Yes RESMED for example is even more expensive and yes its also in a confirmed downtrend.
My opinion of Forbar's analyst that covers HGH is on the record. According to their website they have 450 staff. You think they might have a different analyst that covers healthcare than financials' :rolleyes:
With so many insto's holding these there could be a bit of end of quarter / year window dressing in the closing 15 minute price match period of trading on Thursday. That might be an opportunity for someone considering altering their portfolio weightings for the following quarter / financial year.
I brought HGH to compare Forbar's disappointment with HGH results vs FPH revenue missing analyst's consensus as so called " Downgrade " by you ...I never compared PE of HGH with FPH ...that you stated in your post while referring to it as Growth at reasonable price and not pricey as 46 times forward FPH ....this is to just put the record straight ....nothing more ...:cool:
Your last paragraph is a good point, Beagle..
I agree with you ...under $ 20 for FPH will be golden opportunity IMO ...will it happen or not depends on many other factors too ...so like W69 said ...ideal entry is $ 18 ...but can start buying weekly or monthly etc from now onwards as never easy to perfectly time the market .
Main point being that FPH now more close to buy then a Sell ...
Could say it was a +5% day for FPH share price today
Instead of going down 3.6% it went up 1.4%
That’s the way to go fph
Bouncy Bouncy.:cool:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NT2fvwZ4QgQ
Good analysis but his basis of valuation is totally dependent on analysts consensus which as we know change very easily . Recently they all got downgraded pretty heavily ...can happen other way also . But he wants to value FPH 37 times future earnings for safety ...as thats mean PE historically ...though it rises on better future prospects if on horizon ...eg Delta or similar variants coming back . He pays attention to future expansion of infrastructure plans of $ 700 mil but not includes this in future growth prospects after 2024 ...its after 2024 when FPH will come to limelight ...market will start getting warmed up by mid 2023 or even earlier
PE's got stretched right out in 2019 off the back on 10 year Govt stock at under 1% and will come under further pressure as this normalizes to about 4%.
Good analysis from a bright young man but his value needs to reflect the effects on multiples we are starting to see from much higher risk free rates.
Fair PE is low 30's in my opinion, 32 x 70 cents gives about $22.40 two years from now and discount that back at 10% per annum suggests fair value today of about $18.50 but as noted before these things often overcorrect to the downside so ~ $15 is not completely out of the question.
As Mr B seeks value and he is a good spotter of value ...as per him value in FPH will come below $ 20 ...
Keeping in view other factors which make FPH blue chip ...I will think its a reasonable buy around $ 22 . Also in my humble opinion its a golden opportunity these days to get FPH at such prices which are so close to value propositions ...normally its way over valued most of the time ...almost out of reach of retail investors
And considering the status of FPH on NZX and on index ...its not likely it will overcorrect too much ...after all all kiwisaver funds in ETF will go 14% in FPH by default irrespective its expensive or cheap
Value is in the eye of the beholder.
Some investors will never own shares in this company regardless how good the financial metrics look over the long term.
Why some feel compelled to comment on SP fluctuations is beyond me.
PS In hind sight it was a smart decision to sell WHS at $7.50 after owning it from the float