SP stuffed now. Big downtrend. Company struggling in climate (like all retailers). Wonder how low it will go
Printable View
SP stuffed now. Big downtrend. Company struggling in climate (like all retailers). Wonder how low it will go
Asked myself whether MHJ have ever been good …ever lived up to the hype they churn out.
Performance wise over the last 10 years answer is NO
Share price wise only 2020 through 2021 ……when you made a killing ……well done, even if it was luck
You going to havecanother go? Hoping the market will get excited força year or so before the inevitable let down.
They did alright recently with their covid windfalls. Made lots of cash.. bought some shares back, paid some divs, bought a business even.
They didnt completely pi$$ it into the wind like say WHS did with the market and T7 blowing up.
MHJ will always be on the watch list for another lucky 2020-2021 period. No doubt it will come around again. MHJ been in business coming up 40 years. Just need to be patient and watch
Retail is a tough business. How often do you hear about these big brand names going into liquidation? Usually because they dont pivot to the new trends. online, click and collect, virtual shopping etc.
Like when Blockbuster had serious competition from netflix it diudnt pivot it instead tried to defend its current model by selling candy in their stores....
MHJ to their credit have shrunk their brick and mortar store footprint and expanded their online business.
Additionally they opened up new brands like Medley to get their share of the fake jewelry sector.
MHJ been around awhile like i say and i feel like they will survive and punters will get the chance to make heaps of money again on this cyclical
Remember the Deferred dividend payment episode out of this mob ? ;)
This stock will probably always be a trade ... you need some fun stocks in a market...
"For the first seven weeks of FY24H2, Group sales(including Bevilles) are up 9.5% on prior year, with theMichael Hill Australia retail business driving theimprovement in performance against FY24H1:• Australian segment sales (including Bevilles) +19.6%• New Zealand segment sales -9.2%• Canadian segment sales -0.9%• External transactional sales data demonstrates that boththe Group and the Michael Hill brand continue to takemarket share"
looks like Rob F has taken the oppo to go around with a knife and get ride the of middle management and the dead wood....
move out of the new building and move into a warehouse...
NZ -9.2 ....
Nice concept store ... but think that to cut costs the team moves into a loft....
Attachment 14974
Back to 50-60c levels soon ? :)
On most recent Div & Performances announcements those sort of levels must be within reach again
They certainly got smashed by the "Temp inflation" ...
be very interesting to see the next half year result....
You dont often get such a trading oppo... cheap share that bounces about ....
Love the new store look but Rob will need to take the knife to the operation and get those expenses under control...
Looks like someone got into the office and cleaned out some desks....
sometimes a smashing is an opportunity for some chairs to be put away....
Rob F wont want to be sitting on a smashing ..
Gold hasnt doubled...
NZ result is a shocker and really what does it say about the country...
Maybe they should shut more stores in NZ and concentrate on AUS...
They also need to get that balance sheet under control...
Could be 2026 before you see the results of the AUS economy. NZ is a FRAGILE economy according to LUX ON ...
MH should take the knife to NZ ..
Great short term trade oppo when and if inflation and gold swings in there favour.
Notice the long term Gold chart... it isnt down.
In the past year MHJ's share price has gone from $1.14 down to 73 cents.ie a drop of 36%.
However at the cheap end of The Malls LOV's share price has increased 33.33% from $24.00 to $32.00.
Yes LOV has out performed .. and says the knife needs to come out as this should be shock to the board...
lets hope so as NZX needs every stock it can get to do something profitable business...
else its just join the AUSSI dollar and take up the offer in the AUS constitution if its still here... section 6...
Attachment 14975
Sometime a good smashing is healthy. dont see that store as being anything but a one off...
NZ is a wild west country now ... gate up... get your security camera and check your security firm isnt run by criminals....
AUS could be where MHJ goes and might as well delist from NZ...
They seem to be an AUS company now... NZ is just a sub branch and probably needs to lose at least 6 stores over time....
If they can hold their own in AUS and Canada then so be it and cut head office to the bone...
WHS is a much bigger problem then this one....
WHS had to many moving parts...
NZ economy is in a Roger D moment but doesnt know it...
Public debt is where its at and WITH ALL THE OFF BALANCE SHEET debt does anyone know what it is..
No more Silvermoon..gone broke
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...PAXJWPAEOWKTE/
68 cents wow. last time i bought at these levels i did very well. However I dont think buying now is a very good idea....
No way did these guys just announce a big downgrade at 5:20pm on a Friday, and only on the ASX...
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/ap...8088-2A1523942
Yeah, just seems dodgy to release a negative announcement in this manner.
Hoping all us gullible shareholders are down at the pub spending our last dividend.
Wow a $10m loss for Q3.
Retail is stuffed here and Aus
SP is in a dire downtrend already, this will continue the pressure
Well it worked for me.I missed it.
A shocker.
"Actions have been taken to reduce costs across the business including inventory, corporate
overheads, underperforming stores and further optimisation of store rostering."
I guess the number of underperforming stores has increased.
I do not hold,however a Trust I am a trustee of still holds LOV.
Heading to a full year LOSS
Might be tough market conditions but Michael Hill another old time retailer whose lost their way ….hard to see them ever being ‘great’ again …and ill conceived move into Canada and that Beville acquisition along with the move into a flash new HQ all bad moves.
But no doubt many will say just a glitch and Michael Hill be be great again …eh Rawz
Haha yes Winner, keep it on the watchlist for FY26/27
Canada actually the standout performer right now
They shouldn’t have spent all their cash on the buyback. How nice would everyone feel if they had $20m cash on the balance sheet just sitting there as a guardian protecting them from this downturn.
Group Sales- For the first 45-weeks of FY24, Group sales (including Bevilles) were up 4.7% on LY, and the sales for the core Michael Hill brand were still negative to LY.
Revenue for retail operations FY24H1 FY24YTD
to Wk26 toWk45
Segment figures in local currency Australia segment 10.2% 12.3%
New Zealand segment -10.3% -11.1%
Canada segment 0.5% -0.4%
Total sales 4.0% 4.7%
• Australia -The segment shows positive sales for both Hl and YTD, however this growth is driven by the inclusion of the Bevilles brand in FY24 only. Sales performance in the core Michael Hill brand has improved marginally compared to the first half, but remains negative to last year. The Bevilles brand has also not met sales expectations and has been further impacted by the relocation announcement and systems integration process.
• New Zealand -The segment remains our most challenged with deeper macroeconomic pressures significantly impacting consumer behaviour and discretionary spend. The continued negative sales results are also driven by a decline in consumer credit approval rates across the country and an increase in serious retail crime events impacting a number of our stores.
• canada -This continues to be our best performing segment, broadly flat on a record prior year.
• Gross margin-In line with the first half, gross margin remains suppressed due to sustained higher input costs and record gold pricing. All markets continue to experience aggressive promotionally led retail trading conditions, which is also contributing to margin pressure.
• Earnings impact -Given the compressed sales and continued gross margin decline, previously reported first half earnings have been eroded by an EBIT loss of N$10m for FY24Q3.
They gave everybody hope when they said in Feb that first 7 weeks of second half sales were up 9.5% on pcp
Some 6 weeks on and things seem pretty dire and that 9.5% is no more
Shame they stopped quarterly reporting $ numbers …..we could see what +9.5% turned outubro be
Golden boy Rob Fyfe joined Board in 2014 ….some 10 years ago
MHJ revenues back then about $500m ….now about $680m … up about 35% in 10 years not too bad eh
NPAT back then was $25m … since then from 2015 NPAT has been 28m, 21m, 34m, 5m, 17m, 3m, 49m, 52m, 38m and this year maybe 10m at best . Somewhat ironic boom years were pandemic years 2021 and 2022
Otherwise you’d have to say that during the time that Rob has had a say in things profit trends have been nothing tonwrite home about ….or haven’t gone to what the hype over the years has suggested
Maybe Rob wasn’t the golden boy after all …. the Halo Effect is an interesting study
They need an economics lesson; always seem to bet on a quick flip in the economy towards recovery. Recessions don't last for one quarter... Done it again in this release.
Update:
"Positive sales momentum had been expected through the second half in line with anticipated improvements in consumer
sentiment and economic conditions. Unfortunately this has not materialised."
Outlook:
“There is no doubt that consumer discretionary spend, and the fine jewellery category in particular, remain under pressure
due to macroeconomic forces. Higher interest rates are leading to a sustained and prolonged decline in consumer spending.
Looking forward, as interest rates moderate, we anticipate sales and margin recovery.”
The AFR article 9 days ago was perhaps another warning sign:
"Michael Hill’s luxury play"
https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers...0240503-p5fosf
Another quote ..from Michael
“A business normally has about 30, 40 years and then it’s finished. If you look through history at a lot of the names when I grew up, the department stores, they’ve all gone, finished. In any business, unless it’s a major brand, [this change] is probably the only way that it can last forever, so that’s the way to go.”
Big gamble ….wonder how big this market gap is …the space between the super rich and the not so rich
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/431292
Michael Hill International Limited (ASX/NZX: MHJ) provides a trading update for the 45-week period ended 12 May 2024.
Positive sales momentum had been expected through the second half in line with anticipated improvements in consumersentiment and economic conditions. Unfortunately this has not materialised, with second half sales performance broadly inline with the first half, and margin still under pressure.
• Group Sales – For the first 45-weeks of FY24, Group sales (including Bevilles) were up 4.7% on LY, and the sales for thecore Michael Hill brand were still negative to LY.FY24H1to Wk26FY24YTDto Wk45Revenue for retail operations % Var to LY % Var to LYSegment figures in local currencyAustralia segment AUD 10.2% 12.3%New Zealand segment NZD -10.3% -11.1%Canada segment CAD 0.5% -0.4%Total sales AUD 4.0% 4.7%
• Australia – The segment shows positive sales for both H1 and YTD, however this growth is driven by the inclusion of theBevilles brand in FY24 only. Sales performance in the core Michael Hill brand has improved marginally compared to thefirst half, but remains negative to last year. The Bevilles brand has also not met sales expectations and has been furtherimpacted by the relocation announcement and systems integration process.
• New Zealand – The segment remains our most challenged with deeper macroeconomic pressures significantly impactingconsumer behaviour and discretionary spend. The continued negative sales results are also driven by a decline inconsumer credit approval rates across the country and an increase in serious retail crime events impacting a number ofour stores.• Canada – This continues to be our best performing segment, broadly flat on a record prior year.
• Gross margin – In line with the first half, gross margin remains suppressed due to sustained higher input costs and recordgold pricing. All markets continue to experience aggressive promotionally led retail trading conditions, which is alsocontributing to margin pressure
.• Earnings impact – Given the compressed sales and continued gross margin decline, previously reported first half earningshave been eroded by an EBIT loss of ~$10m for FY24Q3.As the business navigates the prolonged impact of cost-of-living pressures on consumer sentiment, management areactivating initiatives to stimulate sales and restore margin. There is also a heightened focus on managing operational costsand capital expenditure. Actions have been taken to reduce costs across the business including inventory, corporateoverheads, underperforming stores and further optimisation of store rostering.
Commenting on the result, Managing Director and CEO of Michael Hill International Limited, Daniel Bracken said:“There is no doubt that consumer discretionary spend, and the fine jewellery category in particular, remain under pressuredue to macroeconomic forces. Higher interest rates are leading to a sustained and prolonged decline in consumer spending.Looking forward, as interest rates moderate, we anticipate sales and margin recovery.”
MHJ ballroom silver cuff links still going well after 20 years... purchased in Auckland.
All depends then on the product and design team of the day... well.
"Big gamble ….wonder how big this market gap is …the space between the super rich and the not so rich"
probably bigger than one images as the trickle down does not go far...
Super rich always getting richer on expansion of money supply..
Just this is a contraction period... This will test there accounting department and the design and sales team.
Daniel must be getting a lesson in the basic of a recession and he bought some up above 66..
But remember the FED said temporary inflation.....
whose going to report a loss in retail next....
SHAREGUY has made some comments over on th other channel regarding Auckland economy.
Oof - NZ/Aus High price discretionary item retail market being absolutely destroyed by those high mortgage rates now that essentially everyone has now had their mortgages roll over to 7%+ rates.
Decreasing the rate of inflation of course is the entire point of higher interest rates, not specifically crippling high price discretionary retail, which makes up a small part of the basket of goods and services that determine the inflation rate.
High interest rates actually currently pushing up prices of core essential items in the basket unfortunately, as the increased cost of capital is being passed through to consumers/businesses in the form of higher prices for many goods and services that are provided by entities with high debt loads.
Keep hearing gold and silver this and that. Prices must be high. Cant be good for MHJ
They point out the price of gold being a factor in todays update, but lets be honest though that the margins MHJ has on their products would see gold as one of the smallest components of COGS.
MHJ, like all jewelry store chains, are structurally very good when they can leverage their relatively fixed costs (Stores & Staff) to serve a high throughput of customers. The overhead involved in selling to 100 people a day per store is fairly similar to selling to 25 people a day. However there is a hard limit to cover those fixed costs that really starts to hurt once you drop below it.
LEK ....I assume you got rid of MHJ shares when they were buying them back in the in the 120/130s
You waiting to get back or is a case of never again
What’s happening to the price of diamonds
https://stockhead.com.au/resources/g...te-so-forever/
This is good news for MHJ. Kiwis love cheap.
Emm, as for my Tiffany purchases over the years. Not so good.
Great news - I happily choose lab diamonds over mined every time, the sooner the artificial scarcity that the diamond industry has created over the last century evaporates, the better.
As for MHJ - consumers don’t have any idea what the wholesale price of gemstones are, so I’m hoping this leads to supporting margins.
this from DMX. Bit of a weird investment for them tbh.
More concerningly has been the continued erosion to the operational performance of Michael Hill. This now small position declined a further 33% in May on the back of a negative trading update. The company is suffering from weakening consumer demand, tighter consumer credit availability, the impact of crime on its NZ business& the associated additional security costs, contracting gross margins, and troubles with the integration of the acquired Bevilles business in Australia. This investment’s proving to be a painful reminder of the difficulties of retail in general, but also that the world changes, companies have a lifespan and go through phases of growth, maturity, and unfortunately, decline. We don’t need to make our money back the same way we lost it, but at current levels, we believe the shares are being priced for disaster. We’d previously reduced our position as the company started reporting negatively, and its price erosion has further reduced it to a relatively small holding now. We’re comfortable to give this one some time to see if they can successfully reduce costs and restore a basic level of profitability. Its 40+ year history should be worth something here, and we’re hopeful of at least a partial recovery to our remaining investment.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/michae...BTRDEQF6KOGME/
Michael Hill Jeweller to close Whakatāne store due to high retail crime
could be more of this to follow from other retailers in areas which have similar crime issues
It’s wild that New Zealand hasn’t been able to adapt to simple crime techniques that have been around for decades overseas. We lived in such a sheltered country, and all it took was some gangs to figure out how to do these simple acts and we have had several years of chaos with pitiful response from the police and political leaders.
Yes a particular cohort of society, primarily younger people not in work education or training have worked out that there is no effective response to crime. Police have been trained to be social workers first and law enforcement second. The judiciary has been particularly unhelpful to the police and public in general by tempering sentences with excessive focus on upbringing and excuses rather than a straight out crime/discouragement position, coupled with pressure from politicians to keep people from being locked up even briefly as a deterrent. No real consequences means more of the same.