No coffevand buns during lockdown ….the way it should be
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/126...ks-bakery-food
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No coffevand buns during lockdown ….the way it should be
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/126...ks-bakery-food
Seems like a lot of the holders that wanted to get out have. Slowly starting to wind up!
Being mega hopeful, but I am expecting another offer just a few cents over $4.
Anyone notice Save the refinery petition on page 2 of NZ Herald this morning? Would that have a negative effect on ZEL sp?
You can't win can you. On one hand they call fuel a sunset industry, because of its dirty connotations. Kiwisaver funds are saying they won't invest in fossil fuel industry. Go electric rarara. Then you get a group wanting to save an oil refinery. Just goes to show everyone has their own agenda and never the twain shall meet.
it's all politic if you ask me...I bet auto manufacturers know that EV is not necessarily greener but if that's what the consumers want then so be it...same with planes using bio-fuel, it's a joke in my opinion
S&P Dow Jones Indices Announces September 2021
Quarterly Rebalance of the S&P/NZX Indices
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...565/354014.pdf
S&P/NZX 20 Index – Effective Prior to the Open on September 20, 2021
Hello FRE
Goodbye ZEL
You still holding? Two weeks gone. Ampol will have to sell Gull to buy ZEL. Another company going to Aussi.:confused: Maybe ZEL should put in offer of 50c to buy Gull, and change the name to Kiwi Pump:). And then ZEL will become Ampol, then I can buy my petrol from Kiwi Pump to support Kiwi company:D. I want my dividend plus $3.78c plus a $1 good will and anything else you can think of:t_up:. We should not be selling all our companies to the Aussies, next we will be selling the All Blacks for 20c:eek2:.
Yeap, happy to hold and see how this goes. I am hoping for $4+
does it really make any difference to shareholders if NZ companies are sold to AU? Just move your trading from the NZX to ASZ :p
These deals take a long time to settle (mid 2022 ?) so there's the time value of money to consider. A certain $3.52 now v possible $3.78 or maybe a bit more in mid 2022. The expression of interest is non binding, indicative and any proposed scheme implementation agreement will require commerce commission approval, 75% shareholder approval and high court approval. All that said I think at $3.50 or thereabouts I'd rather hold and look for the extra 28 cents and hope its 50 cents.
From AFR 9/9/21 (in part)
Ampol’s $NZ2bn (($1.9bn)) buyout proposal for Z Energy is showing positive signs when it comes to gaining approval from the target, with its chief executive Michael Bennetts talking up the merits of a tie-up this week.
DataRoom understands that Z Energy’s boss, Mr Bennetts, briefed some investors on Wednesday, explaining that a tie-up with Ampol would have major synergies, create opportunities to expand into new geographies and de-risk the business through diversification.
Ampol announced its buyout proposal for Z Energy on August 23 and was granted four weeks’ exclusive due diligence, although Z Energy did not recommend the transaction.
Most take the positive comments about the potential transaction as a sign that Z Energy will likely approve Ampol’s $NZ3.78 per share offer, or one that is slightly higher.
The Commerce Commission could be a major hurdle I suspect, hence the SP is stuck around $3.50
Will this one turn into a long and twisting story like the MET LIFE Properties Takeover was ? ;)
Guidance reaffirmed and so does divvy payout for FY22, c'mon Ampol up your bid north of $4 or someone else can throw their hat in the ring.
What will this do to the share price. Fascinating
Thats why I bought it despite it being a sunset industry. Great dividend to compensate for the slowly declining or changing business. But if a take over offer stops dividend payments it will be a double blow on top of the share price hiding. Never trust a Morningstar recommendation. Mostly losses from their picks.
You've got the correct yields. Good they reaffirmed guidance today and I think there will be tens and tens of millions of synergies that Ampol can extract from the company starting with getting rid of the modest performing and exceptionally well paid senior management. I think the take-over will go ahead.
Add International Borders not far away from opening adding to increased volume
Disc Hold
even if borders were to open next year, it'll just be a trickle compared to pre-pandemic I bet, I believe it was Boeing that expect business to return to normal around 2024
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...730/352778.pdf
Announcement of Ampol's conditional takeover offer made on 23rd August so 4 weeks due diligence will end on Monday, 20th Sept.
Guess the Ampol team will be burning the midnight oil over the weekend with a view to making a final offer on Monday or next week then.
Yes, this is the time to get out now before 5pm this afternoon if you think the deal will fall over. On the other hand, this is the time to get in before 5pm if you think the deal will be made:confused:. I am going to hold for now, but if a lot of sellers at close then might pick up a few more on that closing weakness.
Our Covid lockdowns has given $3.78 a lot of credence, and may end up as the final figure. Plus a final dividend.
https://www.afr.com/street-talk/ampo...0210919-p58sxp
Looks like deal is ready to move to next stage - negotiations on payment of dividends by ZEL in the event of regulatory delays.
Good on them for looking after shareholders. MET shareholders got stabbed in the back by their own directors with not only the takeover price but the complete absence of dividends during the prolonged takeover process. If one company takes over another it should get the company itself, not the accrued earnings in between when the deal is originally proposed and when it finally settles which can be many, many months later. Any director that thinks otherwise should be deeply ashamed of themselves including the entire former MET board.
I want my interim dividend later this year, tell AMPOL to get stuffed in they think they can get.
looks like the smart money bailed judging from the share price movement.
if ampol bails next week i see a under $3 share price again
Sounds good to me, $3 or under. Good div yld at over 7%, and would buy more for that reason. Go the gas gobblers, evs are bad for the planet, they might find a vaccine for the ev pandemic. Most of the greens would agree with me, they drive petrol cars, catch jet planes, and buy plastic things from $2 shop and WHS:D
no im out now , having brought much lower profit in the hand is much better than gambling on a takeover outcome
the proposition was sell in the 3.50's or wait and hope for an extra 25c odd + a div maybe vrs if the takeover fails loss 50c + maybe if takeover failed. its obvious from my position take the money and find other opp's was a better proposition than wait and hope
hardly simple maths in regards to risk explains why it was better to sell if you brought under 3
ampol and z be arguing over div payments because z paying them out now reduces the valuation ampol will want to pay. if they go ahead with the deal it be because allowing z to pay you a div in the interim will be the sweeten offer from ampol
Once this one ends today, reducing to level 1 over next few weeks. NZ now over 73% single dosed 38% double dosed 79% booked. I reckon October be a good month. Just to add anyone un-vaccinated will be unemployable as businesses cannot afford to be short staffed in a tight market.
https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/...id-19-vaccines
Not a holder, but if I had stock bought at $3 I would have sold straightaway @ 3.60 odd, when the takeover news broke. Even now at $3.45 I can't understand the logic in not taking profits and removing the risk of the deal collapsing and the SP retreating to $3 again. The notion that some would be ok with that outcome because of ZEL's high dividends seems illogical. It would take over two years to recoup the lost 45c and that's not even factoring in on using that money to buy other high yield stocks. And you'd be stuck in a sunset industry.
Easy in hindsight, quoting sell at $3.60. I did sell some at $3.60 but kept the bulk of my holding. I dont think the takeover will fall through. Ampol are too big a company to say they missed out on price. So I believe they will settle for at least $3.87 and I am sure they will allow Z to pay a dividend of some sorts.
You may well be right, regarding the deal going through, although there's a lot of hurdles to get over (OIC, Commerce Commission). It's not a given, even if Ampol remain keen and can divest of Gull. I go back to the time value of money - taking certain profits and utilising them now, against greater but uncertain profits at some point in the future. Depends on what risk profile you're comfortable with. Having a quid both ways seems like an acceptable strategy.
ZEL, waited for 335 a looong time, not only me but ~ 70000 shares waiting as well...the Buy happened today...
Tanking? You are getting desperate, aren’t you?
Your modus operandi is too transparent now to all posters - you need to change because we read you like a badly written note. That is, we ignore your ramping.
Where’s the smart money with ATM?
Tanking is ATM dropping post its results.
Garbage - point to one posting where I ignored the downside risks to ATM at $20+. If anything, I started sounding the alarm when Jayne left.
You are getting far too desperate, bull, to invent lies like that.
Just relax, change your modus operandi and realize we all know your modus operandi - ramping up or down when you have bought or sold. There is ZERO sincerity in your postings.
BTW - what is the smart money doing with ATM? Opportunity, bull, to make your mark by making a reasoned (not ramping) call.
Quantas flying International from 18th Dec and England welcoming fully vaccinated travelers from a host of countries from 4th Oct. NZ will join the pack is my guess. Demand for flights already solid. Profitable jet fuel (again) will be in high demand from this Sunset Industry which I reckon will outlive all of us sharetrader members today.
Get a room for the two of you and leave the thread for those who have/want useful contributions rather than the sideshow.
Deleted deleted
Come on guys, its time to kiss and make up :) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EFPTe9vOIkc
Update due by end of week according to NZH :
Z Energy's Ampol deadline
Z Energy shareholders will be expecting an update on the potential takeover bid by Ampol by the end of next week.
Ampol kicked off its four-week due diligence on August 26 despite the country being amid a Covid-19 lockdown.
Jarden analysts Grant Swanepoel and Luan Nguyen believe the hurdles of getting Commerce Commission and Overseas Investment Office approval for the takeover can be overcome but see some potential catches that could delay the outcome beyond six months.
These include the ComCom being delayed by the Christmas break, the OIO waiting until the ComCom has approved the deal before starting its own assessment, and Ampol's divestment of Gull not being the owner requirement for the deal to proceed.
"The ComCom could required the new Gull owners to retain the unique role that Gull plays in the retail fuel market."
They are also worried the timeframe could blow out by multiple government ministers being involved in the deal.
"This all could mean that it takes 12 months to conclude.
"This implies that the current indicative offer by Ampol of $3.78, with a 10c top-up accrued at 0.055c per day if the deal takes longer than March 31 2022 to conclude equates to a time-weighted offer of $3.88 per share at September 2022."
They suggest a meaningful break free could also be one option used by the investor to mitigate the potential 12-month risk.
Plus 11c on good volume this afternoon
Given the leaky wild west NZX I suspect that is a good sign for holders.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/379821
And it has been confirmed... I would be very surprised if there is any increase in the price Ampol offers.
It had to happen I think that its a sign the Z is negotiating a higher price and payment of dividend. After all its AMPOLs takeover. What mug would sit back and wait for regulatory approvals, which may never eventuate, as well accept a really average price. Also who accepts a first offer. Z must be negotiating, and AMPOL, hasnt left the table. I think its good news, and the delay also upsets competing bids.
just like we said , ampol dont want z to pay a div as it reduces the valuation of the company esp when z making no money to pay a div lol
Not sure what the LOLs relate to but $300 mill is nothing to LOL about.
16 September 2021
Z Energy Covid-19 volume impact and FY22 guidance reaffirmation
Z Energy (NZX / ASX: ZEL) (“Z”) is reaffirming its RC EBITDAF guidance for FY22 to be in the
range of $270 million to $310 million and for FY22 dividends to be in the range of 19
cents to 23 cents per share.
what about the share price not reacting...looks to me still in the balance
All a question of what dividends ZEL directors can now extract out of Ampol in addition to the $3.78 takeover price imo.
High fuel price would be increasing margins and profits, and ZEL is a once in a lifetime opportunity for Ampol to increase its EPS at a knockdown price.
Is it too late for us to whip Ampol's Egg for them and show them what proper under-arm bowling looks like ? ;)
Either they want to buy or not .. at the right money ;)
I see a Yankie chain in the news recently (just 4 outlets here) looking at big expansion coming up in NZ
Don't discount a spoiler bidder coming in to join the party I reckon, and it won't be a Cr*ppy fly blown 3.78
the cobbers over yonder have dug up either ;)
That Circle K chain you are referring to ( well the local franchise of it anyway) came in all guns blazing with lofty predictions way back in 2018...and so far have grown to a massive four sites.. .don't think many will be quivering in their boots with that growth rate...
Really Benny, why not ?
Seems like a match made in .......
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...TMN7LAPPGOYQU/
Interesting as parent company has a market cap of NZ$51 billion.
ZEL, now that it is in the market (so to speak), would be a nice bite size for them (call it $4 billion or less than 10% of their market cap) to acquire and fast track their rollout in NZ with one fell swoop.
Would say Ampol would be aware they have competition.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/108723359/circle-k-joins-the-convenience-store-competition-in-auckland
First store in Nov 2018 and then, lockdown March 2020.
I would not read too much into just 4 sites at this stage as they are most probably to trial their offering to NZers, and there have been massive interruptions & disruptions to business activities since beginning of 2020 due to the pandemic.
Yeah fair enough...just seems a stretch to me to open with four sites in 2018, and still only have four sites 3 years later and come out saying we are targeting 100...
They maybe should look at targeting some South Island sites as there has been a lot less disruption down there to gain some momentum.
When is the two weeks extra DD up ?...(I'm lost in a time frozen lockdown groundhog existence and have lost track of the days)
Slowly becoming crunch time in the takeover bid. This bid going ahead or another suitor?
I imagine that the last few weeks action in the oil markets could have potentially had an affect on the deal in a positive way for holders. Am I correct in thinking that the company enjoys better margins with higher oil prices?
Let's not sell this thing short, 3.78 sounding cheaper by the day.