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Sell off on high dollar. each c it goes up reduces EBITDA by $1.5m. Now 5c above forecast rate and likely to stay up for a little while.
IMO the only thing that will help the NZD go down will be strength in the USD. There has been a little shorting in the NZD following this mornings RBNZ annoucment.
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Craic, You say "I would dearly love to know where to set my exit price" Why? Why even attempt to set an exit price when nobody knows how far RAK will run? Say you bought at $3 and set your exit price at $4. Even though you would have "locked in" a good profit, what a mug you would have been! Lets your winners run. It's your losers that need a set exit price! It's called a Stoploss and is to limit your losses when you get it wrong. You wish you knew where to set a "StopGain"! You want to place a limit on your gains when you get it right? Don't do it. Don't even think about it.
"For now I am content to leave my head firmly buried in the sand" Why? Why would you want to ignore market reality? It's nothing to be afraid of. RAK is in a lovely linear uptrend. Nothing scary about that! Wouldn't you like to know if/when this uptrend ends, though? What is the point of purposely, willfully, remaining ignorant?
"..... even if it does mean that I may get my ar*e sunburned." Why? Why run this risk at all? Why not ensure that your derriere remains cool by monitoring the uptrend and selling when it ends? Why not use some of the 10 indicators that I kindly plotted here on 22/5/07? The use of any one of these would protect your nethers in the event of a reversal, locking in profits before you gave too much back to the market. You could even use them all if you wanted to, selling one tenth of your holding if/when each one triggers.
Craic, do us both a favour. Go back and re-read that 22/5 post. Nothing has changed.
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Wow off nearly $1.00 from its highs is it all dollar related?
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Wow off nearly $1.00 from its highs is it all dollar related?
No
Investors got carried away with it's impressive performance to date.
It's currently overpriced and is falling back to a more realistic level.
Rakon's growth rate is averaging 80% at present so I would not expect the shareprice to stay down for very long before it heads north once again.
Disc: hold RAK and accumulating
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Hoop, Whats the target price (on the down side?)
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Hoop, Whats the target price (on the down side?)
Target price $ 4.50 - $4.91 give or take a few cents.
Bear with me Whatsup that I am a long term investor which dabbles in short term investment to relieve the boredom so my technical expertise is very basic and I do most of my calculations in my head.
I will give you the formula of how I worked it out and perhaps you can refine on it, or perhaps a more sophisticated FA or TA person can enlighten us both.
[u]Using basic FA</u>
TP = forecast eps X expected P/E
EPS in 2006 5.5cps 31/3/07 9.7cps The latest annual report the forecast 80% increase in profit with little increase in share numbers(ignored) 2008 E 17.5cps
I divided (17.5 - 9.7 = Approx 8) / 4 = 2cps which are quarterly figures.
I can now figure out end June 2007 EPS 9.7 + 2 = E11.7cps
The expected P/E is a problem as Rakon is a new breed of animal it has only 2 figures to work out an average or a median or some other average in an trending pattern, so the P/E could be less accurate than we wish it to be. Do not be put off by the high P/E as this is common in fast growing stocks.
Working out P/E at IPO launch...price $2.30 / 5.5cps = 41.8
As at 31/3/07...................price $4.90 / 9.7cps = 50.5
I will use the conservative P/E of 42
Target price as of 30 June 2007 is 11.7cps x P/E 42 = [u]$4.91**</u>
**Forecast 80% increase in profit is based on calculations using NZ$ = US70c (Annual Report). I have no idea what the effect of NZ$1=US78c but I will assume 80% is now 50% increase because it is easy for me to work out. Instead of 2cps a quarter it is now 1cps a quarter
Target price 30/6/07 9.7 + 1 = 10.7 x 42 = $4.50 ($NZ1 = US78c)
This price is good enough for me I bought more RAK today at $4.72:D:D
As you see the approx targets at the end of September is between $4.90 - $5.71. So I expect the drop in share price will be short lived even with the NZ/US @ 78c. Assuming all the other variables remain the same, in 6 months time the SP should theoretically be approx 10-15% higher than now. If not it will become an undervalued stock.
Hope this helps
Hoop
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Which brokerage firm kept all its Rakon allocation for itself?
Christopher Niesche in today's Herald says:
If you were lucky enough to get Rakon shares in the initial public offering, you would have done very well indeed - the $1.60 shares issued by the GPS chip company are now trading above $5.
But if you were unlucky enough to be a client of one particular brokerage you wouldn't have got any Rakon shares at all. This brokerage was given an allocation of Rakon shares to apportion out to clients but decided - in breach of NZX rules - to keep all the shares for itself.
So the capital gain of more than 200 per cent on Rakon shares went to the brokers and the poor unsuspecting clients got nothing.
The brokerage argues that it was given such a small parcel of Rakon shares that it wasn't worth breaking it up and handing out.
But it should have been up to individual clients to decide whether a small parcel of Rakon shares wasn't worth bothering with. What small investor would complain about, say, a $2000 capital gain on an initial $1000 investment?
Full story - which is worth a read - is here:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/...ectid=10450186
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If everyone that got an allocation from their broker posted the brokers name here, we could probably work out who the culprit was.
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I think that Phaedrus makes an excellent suggestion, that way we could use the forum to uncover the mystery, yet nobody would be in trouble because there would be no mention of the culprit. However this will only work on the assumption that: ALL OF THE NZX REGISTERED BROKERS WERE ALLOCATED SHARES AT IPO. Can anyone confirm or deny that this is the case, that might be the best starting point.
FG