You may well be right, regarding the deal going through, although there's a lot of hurdles to get over (OIC, Commerce Commission). It's not a given, even if Ampol remain keen and can divest of Gull. I go back to the time value of money - taking certain profits and utilising them now, against greater but uncertain profits at some point in the future. Depends on what risk profile you're comfortable with. Having a quid both ways seems like an acceptable strategy.