With you Roger, bought a heap more two days ago and already 10.5c per share better off. Way too heavy on AIR but nothing better out there at the moment although I'm pretty happy with SKL as well. Well positioned you might say!
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Absolutely mate. I wonder if I should admit out loud that I've now quadrupled my holding since the annual meeting :)
I think the new border levy at ~ $20 seems reasonable. At the end of the day why should regular Kiwi taxpayers fund overseas tourists border costs ? Compares very favourably with the Australian Levy of $A55 and the U.K.'s levy of a whopping 71 pounds. I can't see anyone travelling long haul being put off by a mere extra $20 and as for our neighbours coming from Aussie for their ski holiday, well they might be a little less rowdy at the pub about their skiing prowess after a day on the slopes because they drink two fewer beers, would that be a bad thing :)
Me either - table below shows my top 20 stocks.
They are ranked by forecast internal rate of return (tax paid) using the median market PE since 2007.
Also shown is the IRR if each stock were valued on a PE of 15.
And the extent to which the share price is below or above the forecast 2016 earnings x median market PE - i.e. what the price should be once that result's announced.
AIR is top.
Stocks
MidPtPE IRR MPPE IRR PE15 1 yr UV/OV Growth% DivYield AIR.NZ 10.2 26% 32% 117% 10.0% 8.1% STU.NZ 13.7 25% 26% 80% 11.0% 9.7% TWR.NZ 10.2 23% 26% 45% 12.0% 8.7% nzr.nz 18.2 22% 19% 216% 2.0% 8.5% SKL.NZ 12.8 21% 23% 83% 6.0% 9.6% awf.nz 10.4 19% 23% 18% 12.0% 10.0% HNZ.NZ 11.5 18% 22% 18% 11.0% 8.8% IFT.NZ 14.7 18% 18% 10% 14.0% 5.8% FRE.NZ 15.7 17% 16% 10% 13.0% 6.6% CNU.NZ 9.1 16% 22% -40% 8.0% 0.0% mel.NZ 10.7 16% 19% 14% 8.0% 8.6% thl.nz 11.2 16% 19% 12% 10.0% 8.6% pgw.nz 9.6 15% 20% 16% 5.0% 13.5% hby.nz 10.5 15% 18% 17% 7.0% 12.1% ANZ.ax 12.3 15% 18% 32% 6.5% 8.8% ZEL.NZ 11.9 14% 17% -28% 11.5% 5.8% arv.nz 13.3 14% 16% 9% 11.0% 6.8% MRP.NZ 27.7 14% 8% 34% 6.0% 9.5% TPW.NZ 20.3 14% 10% 20% 7.5% 7.0% Mid pt PE Market median PE since 2007 IRR MPPE Forecast internal rate of return next 7 years, using market median PE IRR PE15 Forecast internal rate of return next 7 years, using PE of 15 Growth Estimated growth factor next 7 years Div yield Current gross dividend yield
1 yr UV/OV - Percent undervalued or overvalued one year out - the percent a stock has to gain or lose to reach the forecast price based on eps 2016 * market median PE
Suppose 3 1/2 cent rise yesterday wasnt too bad
Another 2 1/2 today and $2.80
Then on to $3 by end of month for this super star.
See Delta report was good in the US overnight ....can't lose on airlines eh
Be careful Winner. The wheels can easily come off in this airline business !! http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11527443
Haha, putting the fear into him! Sell me your shares winner ^^
OMG - Air is on the loser's board today
Just Roger alone is enough to boost the SP if he carries on:):)
Roger--Did you notice KWs last post on the Black Monday thread --could this be the case with AIR? ( If its already been covered apologies)
There is an argument for the company to buy its own stock back especially when its trading on such a ludicrously low PE. Going off the company's own implied guidance of $1,000m for the year we get 64cps after tax, PE 4.3. Borrow say $100m at 5% = $5m cost. Invest in 36m shares at $2.77 would generate $23m in after tax earnings boosting earnings for other shareholders by $18m. In my view the board is however fairly conservative and not really looking at this sort of financial engineering. Speaking with Tony Carter after the meeting he said they really put the forecast out there quite early which was quite a forthright position to take so early in the financial year, (his view), and I gathered that this was sort of in lieu of a share buy-back, (my inference nothing specifically mentioned to that effect).
Last time they used the share buy-back provision I believe the stock was trading under the NTA. Their thinking rightly or wrongly seems to be at present that they prefer to build the airline with new more efficient aircraft than buy the stock back unless its under NTA. At this stage I am happy with what they've done with getting the early indication of FY16 profitability out there for all to see. In the most unlikely event that we see a meaningful pullback in the SP I am happy to send a brief synopsis of my buy-back theory to the company along with supporting links showing this is good governance practice.
+ Couta1 = 94% LOLQuote:
Winner69 -we could say govt plus insos plus roger hold 92% ....going on 93%