Hi All
Looking at circa .7550 as low on current channel to exit.
Will cover/reverse on a bounce
May have another wave to go before then.(4/5)
Been in this channel now since March
Anyone else surfing it?
Cheers
Slam
Printable View
Hi All
Looking at circa .7550 as low on current channel to exit.
Will cover/reverse on a bounce
May have another wave to go before then.(4/5)
Been in this channel now since March
Anyone else surfing it?
Cheers
Slam
Hi Slam
Yes I was in for 42 pips off the fall
rgds - arco
Maybe turning down again for 5th leg
Target as below
Cheers
Slam
i also got 40 pips on Friday night from 7697 - 7658
it seems to have bearish gartleyd since 7750 making it a sell at 7720 tho I wasnt there to partake (currently 7695)
just closed for another 50 thanks slam
was a bit slow getting in last night , looking for a bit more confirmation which I felt I had at 7686 and have just closed now at 7636....
if I'd playd the gartley with conviction it would have been 80 pips. 50 is ok tho. kiwi hasnt a history of doing me any favours....
Hi Peat
Nice
I'm still holding for .7550ish
Broken .7630 so still possible
Will cover on a bounce (got tight stops)
Cheers
Slam
Closed shorts on spike down at .7560
on bad news "March/Q1 Retail Trade Far Weaker Than Expected"
Let see what happens now hey
Cheers
Slam
any ideas why the kiwi is going up so strongly after the budget.
its not a USD thing....
tax cuts and govt spending may add to inflationary pressures meaning the reserve bank may not drop rates. that would be my guess.
-j
ah b.ugger Steve
yeh I was short last night too but closed out with a mere 30
events are dangerous times to be in the mkt.
The NZD has stabilised following the budget, waiting for the next RBNZ announcement to indicate how the future rate cuts have been delayed.
It is unlikely that any new highs will be threatened...
Hi Peat/DB
the kiwi is still contained in its down channel i have two shorts on the kiwi 7589 and 7571, sl 7619 looking for a first target of 7450 area, then 161 area maybe, think reasonable prob with 3 doiji and continuing negative data coming out
Hi ALL
Not quite the sell down i was looking for with GDP, i think the market had already factored it in exited at 7544 for a few pips banked!
[FONT='Verdana','sans-serif']The New Zealand dollar rebounded today from an overnight slump despite soft GDP data.[/FONT]
In a counter-intuitive move the kiwi climbed against all currencies despite news the economy shrank by 0.3 per cent in the March quarter.
ANZ chief dealer Murray Hindley said it was a classic short squeeze.
The data was no worse than economists' forecasts, and the selling after was mild, traders who had shorted the kiwi were squeezed.
Short traders sell a currency on expectation they can buy back cheaper when the exchange rate is lower.
The kiwi, which had opened on US75.57c, closed on US76.05c.
Against the aussie it ended on A79.35c from its A79.04c opening. It fell overnight to around A78.75c, the lowest level in nearly seven years.
The kiwi's rise was also in spite of a pounding equity markets around the world took, lead by Wall Street which plunged 3 per cent.
In recent times a fall in equities has led to a fall in the kiwi as traders flee risk.
Some economists believe the second quarter growth will be worse than the first but with that quarter almost over, the worst may be nearly over.
Westpac economist Dominick Stephens said "we've probably lived through the absolute worst of this recession.
"The third quarter should be not as bad as the second quarter. We do think the whole of 2008 is going to be a pretty sharp correction for people, particularly urban consumers."
I think the ANZ were very pleased with themselves!
Unfortunately NZ is in deep trouble, very sick we are. It is just that these (Australian Bank) economists keep looking backwards. There will be no productive sector left to recover by the time they agree that Bollard should drop the interest rates.
The ANZ may not have the last laugh...
HI Peat/DB,
I have been getting hammered lately on shorting the kiwi so just wondering whether this scenario might play out.What are your thoughts?
B AT .50 and D at .886 to make a bearish bat,the kiwi would have to brake out of its downtrend channel to achieve this scenario
what time is the announcement today?
9.00
im going to trade it , you having a punt
ah yeh I see its on their website 9 am
http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monpol/statements/0092224.html
I'll buy a small amount at 7460 but its tricky for me I'm walking to work at that time...
.25 cut to 8%
got 60 pips but it dived a wopping 140 pips in seconds
check this out peat
spreads went over 40 pips on Oanda... insane.... got stopped in the same minute.... but the reaction seems muted now that spreads are back to normal
wheres the kiwi going over the next three months?
The possible direction of the Kiwi over the next 3 months..............
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sdUUx5FdySs
HI TODDY
it would be interesting to know how he traded,what setups, patterns,he used
etc
cheers
roddy
Hi All,
i am short at 7279 and 7268 on the kiwi and my target is .70 cent area,next fib level Re chart,first hurdle is to break 72
nice trade roddy , target hit
Hi All
Closed last short
The channel NZD has been in since March has been great
Broken below now, so will have to re-evaluate next trade
Looking for a bounce to reset
I think the 70c hurdle may take a few attempts to break
Cheers
Slam
Thanks DB,
I have been trying to evaluate whether to hold my short on the NZD/JPY its broken through triangle on the daily but in comparison has retraced further than the kiwi/usd which to reach the 38.2 fib would need to be around .65,so perhaps mite be more opportunity there,tho as slam points out its quite a major level and may take some breaking
yeah take a bow roddy ,
my feeling is a counter trend rally is underway i have closed out a short on gbpjpy
im really convinced its going to break lower and hard, but feel i can use this counter trend
rally to short higher up , so i think nzd jpy should be similar.
long on eur usd 149 90 targeting 151 50 but being very careful
Hi i have researching a good platform for trading FX options particularly the NZ/US..aybody have any recommendations?
Hi All
Well I reset a short position ( small one) on the spike to .7070
Has pushed through .70 but not convincingly.
Still think a bigger bounce is on the cards, but I'll scalp 80pips in the mean time.
Dailys way oversold, but we could get a fall to .6640 before real support appears.
Interesting week ahead I think
Cheers
Slam
Big wide ranging candle yesterday (spinning top/one day reversal?). Is this the start of the bounce?
__________________
Thinking out aloud...........
Just wonder if Kiwi could be under the influence of the large red mishapen BF.
In while case its eventual destination could be the dark grey box below.
Currently the green BF and Gartley could produce a northern run where the old support may then create resistance for a further fall.
Any thoughts on the EW count DB
rgds - arco
Planetram
You could look at Oanda they have 'box options'....I have a real account with Oanda, but I haven't used the box options myself.Quote:
Hi i have researching a good platform for trading FX options particularly the NZ/US..anybody have any recommendations?
http://fxtrade.oanda.com/forex_tradi...fxbox_options/
arco
Why is the $NZ so strong?
Dr Who
There was an expectancy (check post #956)
sorry arco , missed your request for an elliot count , will rectify tout de suite