Not very good on these emoji things but I suppose it means something to a few
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[QUOTE=winner69;941105]Only posted what Kingfish put out yesterday in their update ….they obviously thought it worthy
Anyway thanks for elaborating .,..I had missed the news first time around.[/QUOTEStock Takes: What's behind Fisher & Paykel's sinking share price?
16 Sep, 2021
By: Tamsyn Parker
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare's recent share price weakness is being blamed on a change in recommendations for Covid treatment out of the United Kingdom.
The UK's National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) indicated CPAP therapy should be the standard care for Covid patients rather than Fisher & Paykel's high-flow nasal oxygen (HFNO).
The findings were based on two controlled trials conducted in the midst of the UK's Covid pandemic which found CPAP therapy reduces the need for intubation in Covid-19 patients but HFNO does not provide any benefit over standard low-flow oxygen therapy.
JP Morgan analysis on the issue noted this was a "surprising and disappointing result for F&P". But said at this stage they did not expect clinical guideline in other jurisdictions to follow the UK's lead until the results of the trial were peer reviewed and published.
"The peer view process is likely to help clarify some concerns with the results including whether the relatively high rate of cross-over between the therapy groups or the lack of a clear protocol for escalating patients to intubation was likely to have had any bearing on the results."
JP Morgan estimate the impact on sales to the UK by F&P as a result of the change in guidance will only be small.
"We estimate sales for the UK account around 4 per cent of F&P's pre-Covid revenues from consumables for the humidification of ventilate patients. Given the small size of UK revenues and the fact the previous NICE guidelines recommended against HFNO for Covid patients, we believe the latest alert is unlikely to have a material impact on group earnings."
Harbour Asset Management's Shane Solly said the situation suggested there could be a bit more consolidation to come in F&P's share price.
"It's more raising a question than saying the treatment is no longer valid." But still he said investors had to take the issue seriously.
This was posted in Sept ...which relates to this study and NICE recommendations to NHS hospitals based on this study
This was also posted at that time ...No idea whose recommendations will prevail and which geographies ...USA ones are most important to FPH and Europe next ...Both are positive for HFNO so far ....But it seems like irritant for SP at the moment . This surely helps Bears ...
FPH hits $27.65.. -4% ..Hmmm...
Jan exports data out today ...seems pretty bleak ...its down 45.8 % from last year ...though seasonally Jan is a very low month ...always recorded lowest amount in the whole calendar year ...but this time its 54 Mil from NZ compared to 100 Mil last year ...I know exports from NZ are falling as they are rising from only consumables producer Mexico factories ...
My estimate of Jan revenues is just $ 80 Mil ....need to recalibrate my model after knowing latest actuals ahead ...I think !!
Like your DCF models ....lol
Coming back to your answer about PEs of cyclical stocks being highest at low point of the cycle ...why cant that apply to FPH too while it digests extra ordinary gains ....if growth comes back to regular 12-15 % as they are targeting then it will be back in business SP wise in no time ....2023 its expected in actuals ...so in SP can happen sometime in 2022 as Mr B says market is very forward looking these days ....just thinking aloud mate ...so dont pounce on me please
I was referring in concept ...this is called waiting by markets IMO ...market waits for next leg up while keep the SP in limbo ...sideways which seems like high current PE if one doesn't see the whole picture ...if there is certainty FPH will not grow then it goes to 10 + 5 for quality of company and earning ...max maybe 18 ...but at present market thinks it has growth ahead so it gets 30 ....just wondering how market thinks or works ...like u said SP is dictated by major holders ...means its their view as they can change it in a day ...from 30 to 18 PE ...
the 2 yr sideways channel is breaking down ..... timber. lucky i gave the heads up mths ago
I think we know some that have gone all in on this?? I have been finding it overvalued for years and still it kept climbing. I have stayed out for this very reason. People were buying on hype and maybe they knew something I didn't. It will climb to $40-50 at some stage, but I don't know when...... Maybe 2025-30 is anybodies guess.
Yes,...probably best I be diplomatic and not mention the usual suspects name.
I suspect that a LOT of people with their Kiwisaver funds are currently shifting to a cash or conservative fund allocation at present to ride out the storm and the fund managers have no choice but to sell these and similar stocks that are popular with the fundies.
I remain very comfortable with a very high allocation to cash and short term deposits.
Bought some Genesis last week, (see GNE thread for reasons) but other than that quite content to sit on my paws for a while, might be quite a while.
SUM is definitely in my sights as soon as there's a new uptrend formed, (very high quality company with excellent management but its hard to make progress in this market so i will wait for a confirmed new uptrend. Other than that I have no plans at present.
Guru Mark from Craigs offered some advice today -
Corrections, recessions and bear markets… sadly, they’re all a natural part of the business and investment cycle. You only have two choices - make peace with this, or shun risk assets (and miss out on the long-returns they offer).
I think he's saying live with the volatility and hang in there because FPH will make you rich over time
Ashley Gardyne (chief investment officer at Fisher funds) singing off the same hymn sheet on the weekend and not for the first time. He was wrong 2 months ago and I think for the short term at least, he will be wrong this time. What he never said is maybe they have the wrong stocks for the new more value focused environment we're now in ? and that question applies right across their portfolio including Barramundi and Kingfish including their large stake in FPH. e.g. Marlin NTA down from $1.30 last Sept to just $1.07 last week and falling further quite fast, ouch ! Never mind, hang in there so we get our annual 1.25% management fees regardless of whether you get badly burned or not. Hmmm...
Wisely spoken Beagle (as usual) I exited the FPH position that I bought at the bottom today as this could have further downside if NZ fund managers rebalance and liquidate for a more value focused environment for the short term... as you say its hard to make progress in this market... Given the US market might correct soon tempted to get into a corrected US growth index tracker for the long term...Any thoughts?
I believe we are just at the very beginning of a real reckoning with the share prices of US technology, small company growth and in particular growth companies with no earnings. I got burned on BOT (automation and biotech ETF and USS (small company ETF) late last year and exited both positions in early 2022. As a bean counter I have to chose to believe that earnings really do matter, (its my life's work) and some of the companies in the US are trading on nothing more than the hope of earnings at some vague undefined very distant year in the future. People are gambling on what's going to be the next big thing as opposed to investing in quality companies with real earnings on sensible metrics.
Not many people realize that the NASDAQ as a whole lost a whopping 90% of its value after the dot.com bust around the start of this century. Cathy Woods ARK fund has been absolutely smashed, down more than 50% from the peak and I think it could go a lot lower yet.
Its hard to make money when the tide is going out fast. My plan with BOT and USS, (both listed here) is to wait for the next uptrend. Bring up a chart and you will see both have broken down through the dark line (100 day moving average). I will stay out for as long as it takes until they break back up through that indicator indicating a new uptrend. Sure you miss the early part of the new uptrend but that's a great way to de-risk a new position in these ETF's. I think a new uptrend is probably quite some time away...possibly a year or two.
Use the same technique for any other company presently in a downtrend is not a silly idea either.
Its a bit of a skill to learn to simply sit in cash and not do anything with it. Many people get tripped up by fancy European cars or boats including myself at times.
Final thought. The war in Ukraine could very easily deteriorate into a much worse situation including the potential for WW3 either conventional or nuclear.
Thanks! Beagle for being generous with your knowledge and insights:t_up:...
As you mentioned (I have to keep on reminding myself) that the tide has turned and there might not longer be easy money for the taking.... all we can do is to reduce risk profile, increase cash holdings and probably lie in wait :-) as things go more low I was thinking on the lines of USG, but even with their quality portfolio some stocks might still take a hit..so as you mention it make sense to get back when an uptrend but till then have to be patient and cautious...
Yes be cautious,but be ready to buy tech when others are selling.Tesla is entering a perfect storm of growth with the cost of energy going nuts atp.Tech innovation stocks like Tesla(and fph) with its multi prong leading tech ,AI, battery and vehicle construction efficiencies etc are the future.Time to get greedy soon in tech.
USG a good idea as you're safer in the large growth stocks and many will have real pricing power in this high inflation environment but they're also in a downtrend and its best to wait for a new uptrend and then pounce.
I agree JT but I still think trying to pick bottoms without TA confirmation is usually a messy business.
Difference between long term investors and traders and their thinking is easy to see on this thread ...everytime a big correction happens then we hear " I told u so ..." lol
2010 ....FPH was $ 2.42 or so ....how many traders made more money then $ 2.42 turning to todays $ 26.90 ....in say 12 years .... MFT is even more rosier story of long term investing in good growth oriented stocks ...
Long term investors dont worry about daily or even weekly or monthly market conditions ....Markets are down world over ...No one could predict the current War scenarios ....though Inflation fear was on cards ...but FPH and MFT s have gone thru many inflation cycles in last 15 years or so .
Also Guru Lister's advise is saner to sit tight on your long term positions ....dont let markets and different time frame perspective people scare u ....I fully agree
Hey Beagle - have you noticed the FPH share price is only down by how much the market is down.
The market still doesn't seem to have factored in the declining profit bit yet
Or the other way the market has allowed for the declining profits but as yet to re-rate FPH (sentiment still strong)
Whatever methinks somewhere closer to 20 bucks is on the cards in a month or so.
Any newbie type investor seeking advice on this forum is in the wrong place, and at the wrong time, particularly if they think there is easy money to be made.
I suggest you seek advice elsewhere.
Except hold forever "blue chip" stocks are becoming endangered and can spend years doing nothing ,RYM for example has been one of Craigs must haves in their model portfolio and all stocks in their various sectors run in cycles , the recent switch from growth to value etc.Listers underlying message is "it's all too hard,leave it to us,we can do it all for you for 1% a year (plus re 1% on every buy and sell).That's his real job.
Agreed, RYM has dramatically underperformed the NZX50 for the last 8 years and is set to extend that record to at least a decade in my opinion.
Winner and I called it as significantly overvalued in 2014 and said stay out and we have been bang on the money.
Yes MFT and FPH have stellar track records of creating value for long term shareholders just like RYM did before it entered a really lengthy period of underperformance.
Are FPH and MFT a BUY here for fresh capital coming to the market ? I would argue NO but I can also understand long term holders not wanting to sell. I guess it all comes down to one's own unique investment perspective.
Craig's are low risk conservative for people (older?) who want that,they serve them well.
Since when HGH such a low PE and High Dividend value stock starts going down 5% from almost rock bottom 2.20 ?
So its not about valuations so much at the moment but lack of buyers and some scared sellers which is making market pricing very inefficient ....this is surely not the time to panic and draw conclusions about markets and valuations ...IMHO
It probably also matters a little bit if you are an tax paying trader or capital account investor, and if you are the later, your knowledge of risk tolerance for staying on the right side of the IRD. There will have been a multitude of investors selling, crystalizing strong capital gains, not paying tax on those gains, then repurchasing those shares at some point for lower prices, when the underlying commercial rational for holding those shares may not have changed (IE, many of the the companies still paid their divies, still executed on their growth plan, etc). That is a risky pattern of behaviour should the IRD come calling. Something acknowledged traders won't have to worry about and get to claim deductions on their losses in a bear market. There are clear taxation differences between a trader and an investor, because they clearly operate differently. Sometimes the underlying commercial rational for holding a share does change, and warrants a bonafide review of the dominant purpose of holding that asset.
I don't know why the FPH and ATM comparison keeps being brought up by you two old dogs but its laughable.. there is zero comparison.
FPH has a global market. ATM is heavily reliant on China.
Demand for FPH products is growing with ageing populating in the west and post covid complications. ATM is dealing with a declining birth rate in China and a push for breast feeding.
FPH is a proven grower of EPS over a very long time. ATM is a flash in the pan in comparison.
Guess you're just bored and fishing for a reaction. Well you hooked me in i guess lol
Yep, a bit bored ---- syndicate continually being outbid at the Karaka yearling sales ..... world affairs not stopping millions being spent
Not comparing the companies A2 and FPH ..... just trying to highlight how market sentiment can change when high flyers show slowing growth and declining profitability and go out of favour .... can be brutal
FPH share price back to where it was about 2 years ago ..... like February 2020
Not just FPH ...even MFT given up all its 2021 gains ....SUM ...
But very surprised by HGH being sold ...it has low P/E ...High Dividend ... Growth projected ahead ...still not loved that dearly ...Maybe its just panic or need of cash or over extended positions
Just read few opinions on market watch.com ...they opining that markets may bottom out in a week or so when all bad news out and in the prices ...I just wish I had more funds to invest as find some stocks super attractive ...I know they can go further down but still would have started buying already ...only if had more funds ....Any idea about RBNZ PIN ?? :p
BTW ....I remember from last March 2021 ...U mentioned solid support around 25.94 for FPH ...hopefully it works still ...lol
And has FPH advanced its business more or less than 2 years ago?
Some real opportunities out there to buy into businesses that are priced the same as years gone by. Was looking at FB (or Meta as it is now known..) it is currently priced at Oct 2018 levels. FB more or less advanced than 3.5 years ago?
Where is the bottom? Nobody knows
More too it than that. A better question is how long are the Covid tailwinds that have been blowing fiercely in FPH's favour going to last ? Another 2 years or less ? What's the unassisted Covid earnings then ? What are fair metrics going to be in the future with the lower non Covid assisted growth and higher interest rates ?
FPH shares have been in a downtrend for the last 18 months and the market is still trying to work all this out.
I would suggest TA is probably far more useful than FA in the circumstances...
Winners post #2341 is very pertinent. Plenty of people thought they could bottom pick successfully when ATM was falling and almost all of them got badly burned.
TA is your best friend in this crazy market.
downgrade to margins not surprising in an inflationary environment
Suppose this is a profit downgrade
H2 sales down about 25% v pcp .... ouch ..... and full year revenues about 5% down om market expectations
And that 2.2% points drop in gross margin takes millions off the bottom line ..... double ouch
Never mind ....in 10 years time we'll say ] 2022 just had a few hiccups
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/389295
Todays announcement not flagged PRICE SENSITIVE so we should be OK share price way
I read that as revenue and earnings both down by 3 to 4 % compared to recent assumptions. Not a biggie ... but yes, might keep the SP down for a little bit longer ...
Analysts on marketscreener see earnings bottoming out in 2023 (i.e. they think its likely to get worse before it gets better) ...
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote...30/financials/
And NP will be 32% higher in 2023 compared to 2020 taking out Covid effect on results. Over Covid period tucking away some super profits.
NP still growing at 10 % compounding regardless of Covid from 2020 to 2023
Expected NP growth 2023 to 2024 back up to 16%
W69 and Beagle were right after all. Good work fellas
Using marketscreener F22 NPAT of 406m and adjusting for lower sales and the margin impacts they talk about F22 npat could be as low as 350m to 360m ....that being about 13% less .... not a 'not a biggie', maybe a 'little 'biggie'
So EPS could be around 62 cents ..... so PE keeping to the 40 level.
We tried to warn them just like we did with RYM 8 years ago that's been a dog ever since and Balance, Bull and I tried to warn people about ATM when it was over $20. Ignoring TA in this market and having excess hubris about one's fundamental assessment of the situation is almost guaranteed to be a really confronting and painful experience especially in these crazy times.
If the PE is still 40 as per your numbers there's PLENTY more potential for this decline to bite really hard.
Well done Beagle & W69!!:t_up: Thanks!
Yeah exited out on Beagles earlier post and also seeing the lower export data ....
Well I expect to see Fisher Fund's Sam Dickie NZH article soon.. :) similar to this...
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/127...he-outlook-now..
shareprice making a great recovery after early 'panic'
come 5 o'clock probably be UP for the day
Oh dear ....all those assumptions out big time ...sales / margins the lot
So the $28.34 DCF is history ......checked the assumptions on the prior one that came to $24.68.
That's shot to pieces as well
Will play around some time but it looks like starting from a lower bases (F22) and less bullish growth and a question market over margins and and an increased discount rate I imagine a DCF value will come in well under 20 bucks
From Market Close on BusinessDesk
Nothing like a fundie modestly saying that he is a guru
.
Greg Smith, head of retail at Devon Funds, said his fund had been underweight on F&P Healthcare for a while, in anticipation of falling future earnings. “The company had always said to watch hospitalisation rates for a read on earnings,” he told BusinessDesk.
“Well, that light has been flashing red for some time now.” Hospitalisation rates in the United States were down about 80% from their peak and those cases that were hospitalised stayed half as long due to less severe illness, he said. Smith said this signalled the covid era was gradually coming to an end and the stocks which benefited from the pandemic would begin to normalise. “
It is ironic that the day Fisher & Paykel falls 8%, is the same day the government effectively consigned vaccine mandates to history,” he said..
Waiting for Sam Dickie to come out with the inevitable line they use every time one of their big picks does badly..."this current pullback is an opportunity"
Down from about $33 at the start of this quarter to $25.70 is more than a 22% decline in less than 3 months ! You can definitely call that a bearish trend that's well entrenched :eek2:
More pain to come I'd wager. Never buy in an established and confirmed downtrend without TA confirming a bottoming process has already been formed ! Makes sense to wait for at the very least a break up through the 30 day MA to indicate the possibility of a new uptrend and that could be quite some time away.
I suppose long term investors won't care if it goes down to under $15, they've still made heaps so it doesn't matter.
But that is only of interest to long term investors, not the traders that are in and out of stocks on a frequent basis. For an alternative view look at Kiora's post 2352 above.
Just prior to COVID FPH was at around $ 22.70 and was under $10 only 6 years ago. After recent falls, SP is still 10% ahead of where we were at start of COVID and arguably a much stronger business. Compare that to the much commented on OCA, that started COVID period at around $ 1.30 and is currently sitting at $1.05.
The freight costs are indeed a big hit for FPA, like they will be for almost every business operating and every single household will be hit to the same or higher degree. Hardly unexpected.
COVID was a highly unusual period for ALL stocks and FPH made super profits during that time. But thanks for the "warnings" about the obvious, that COVID super profits were not going to last forever. I'm sure that has been helpful for traders. For many of us that have been in this share a long time, it was pretty obvious all along. It was an unexpected bonus.
New investors should be careful taking posts on ST as gospel. DYOR and stick to your strategy if you are happy with it.
$15 sp too low Master Beagle. Revenue is only reverting to the mean if you plot it out.
Ignoring FY21 outlier year the revenue trend line is fairly consistent up up up.
Margins hurt by shipping costs. That will rectify itself. Not saying i am buying now... I will take your advice with the 30 day MA trick cheers
You've tried to pick some arbitrary period of time to suit your own thesis. Winner and I called RYM significantly overpriced relative to its peer in early 2014 and warned of a protracted period of underperformance relative to the only other sector player at the time which was SUM. Since then I have repeated my view over the years several times.
RYM share price on 31 March 2014 was $8.75 and its is now $9.76 a capital gain of only 11.5% in eight years in a rampant bull market for housing, enough for anyone to tear their hair out in frustration.
As expected and foretold this has dramatically underperformed SUM in those eight years which has risen from $3.59 to $11.55, more than tripling its share price.
This is a great example of people simply paying too high a multiple for RYM because of former market darling status and what happens to your returns afterwards over a long period of time. This also has the very real potential to turn into a full decade of underperformance for RYM in my opinion.
To be clear folks, I am not valuing FPH at $15...I am simply stating that this downtrend has real legs and momentum and its very dangerous to apply new capital in a steep downturn without any TA signals confirming a bottom is in. I'm also stating that I think the market darling status with the PE is very much alive and well still with FPH and we have all seen what happens when companies lose market darling status...another great recent example is ATM.
Obviously, Iceman, Covid has provided headwinds for some companies and tailwinds for others and comparing the two is about as helpful as comparing the price of apples and pears but for what its worth I backed the truck up on OCA right after the lockdown started at about 70 cents so its still up 50% from then.
...deleted...
Thanks, I initially gathered the same impression and was bewildered as to why I would bother to ramp a share I don't own lol
All good FM. Yes...unfortunately fund mangers who build a 50% stake around just three shares also build themselves a position that its extremely hard to extricate themselves from without losing serious face and affecting the share price as well. Few take ownership of their mistakes and so they trot out the age old line about this being a wonderful opportunity to accumulate more at a deeply discounted price, or similar words to that effect.
Did he ever take ownership of the fact they didn't extricate themselves well from the ATM share price collapse ?, if so I can't recall it.
The trust I am a trustee of has owned FPH and EBO since before 1991.
The dividend yield on cost must be getting well near or over 100%
I guess there have been a good few uptrends,downtrends and sideways movements in that time.?
So what...lol.
I can not recall FPH market cap when the trust bought into FPH,but I well remember Ebos's was just over $2.5 million.
Grown a bit,as their market cap is now $7.35 billion.
Not a lot of people know that..!
Mark Lister, head of private wealth research with Craigs Investment Partners, said the local market was the odd one out with others overseas increasing and providing positive leads.
"Fisher and Paykel is such a big company in the New Zealand market and when it has a bad day it's hard for the index to hold on. The rest of the market was okay.
"Fisher and Paykel still fits the bill as a blue-chip world-class company and there's no concerns about the business. Its product enjoyed soaring demand for Covid hospitalisation, and with everyone getting back to normal, that's not good news for the company," Lister said.
"A fall in short-term revenue and sales is something investors have to appreciate and it doesn't change the long-term story for Fisher and Paykel."
Guru Lister has summed it up very well for actual long term investors .
I think this process will help it coming back to original uptrend soon .... But still some way to go ...sideways or more downside traders will know better .
Still eps will be around 75 Cents ....next year guidance if provided will set new path ...till then enjoy the ride ...lol
High PE stock - cannot disappoint as EPS shrinkage also results in PE contraction.
I hate to say it . COVID is still around and new variants popping out every now and then.As Bloomfield said today … common flu is evident and known from the 11th century . Covid is just two years old…FPH has invested heavily in R&D .. for long time investors - just a blip.You never know what 2023 has in store for the world eh?
My opinion is the debate is really all about are they a good buy now ? Just as what people originally paid for RYM (~ 25 cents on a split adjusted basis) or ATM a few cents and how they had made squillions is of no relevance to people making decisions today about those shares so it is with FPH and what someone paid in 1991.
People making decisions when ATM was $21 or whether RYM was a great buy at $9 8 years ago where relevant discussion points at those times and so is this a relevant subject at this time as we begin the process of seeing less usage of FPH products as Covid hopefully starts to abate.
Not everyone is aware of the risks of buying in a confirmed downtrend and the risk of how far that can extend if you get loss of earnings growth resulting in not only lower earnings but a much lower applicable multiple because growth has tailed off, exacerbated by higher underlying interest rates.
If eps is about 60 cps and the PE comes back into the mid 20's, then yeah, $15 is quite plausible. Couldn't happen...lets see shall we.
Beagle don’t take me wrong. It is great to have the views you and winner have about FPH discussed here. It should be what ST is about. It would be even better with a little less of the alarmist tone, particularly for new-ish investors. I just have a very different approach and am happy with it.
You made comparisons with FPH, RYM and ATM in your post when talking about the warnings. ATM situation has no relevance to FPH in my view. A bit like my reference to OCA.
I also bought quite a few OCA when it crashed, in the mid fifties. But unusually for me, I unloaded them all a few months ago and am not intending to buy back in at this stage. But wrong thread for that discussion
Iceman RYM and ATM are very different companies I certainly agree with that. The reason I bring them up as examples is they also both achieved top notch "market darling" status...actually I would even go so far as to call it "cult" status and many people claimed you simply couldn't go wrong buying them despite trading on extended multiples of a forward PE of about 40 just like FPH is today.
I see a lot of similarities with the claims being made about FPH today and they're trading on about the same multiple as RYM and ATM were when the earnings growth of those companies also started slowing. I wouldn't say its alarmist and I note its the biggest and one of the most liquid companies on the NZX so I doubt a good robust debate on here would make any difference to the share price. I get it that's uncomfortable for long term holders but a good robust discussion is what makes this place worthwhile. At the end of the day people can make up their own minds.
I sold most of my OCA at prices far higher than what are prevailing today and have been completely transparent and honest about my reservations despite still holding a 6 figure sized stake. That's also made for a good robust discussion on that thread but to his credit Maverick despite having a huge position never complains about how robust things get in there, he's an absolute gentleman even if I'm occasionally excessively dogmatic.
I guess in my defense I have always liked debating things since being on the high school debating team and I know Beagles likes to bark so I probably chose my user name really well lol
There is no defence needed mate. I greatly value your input and opinions and the fact we debate them by putting forward our opposing views when they arise. It is what ST is about, differences in opinions and different investment approaches. There is no right or wrong way in this game and what suits one may not suit another, as we both know.
Interesting posts :)
Most posters just articulating why they don't own FPH and will never own it?
Because its always too expensive?
That they would rather own WHS,HGH etc etc ???
When they are supposedly looking for yield while interest rates predicted to rise? Then capital value erodes?
While the fewer saying they own FPH/have always owned it and their long term view of the business hasn't changed. That FPH share price follows earnings.
Again to restate recent price action history of FPH for the benefit of non holders but expert analysts of FPH ...
In Jan 2020 it started the year at $ 22.20 ...pre covid times ...expecting an eps 50 cents for current year and revenues of $ 1.19 B
It was doing around 10% revenue growth and 20% NPAT growth recently thus SP was rising around 15-20% YOY
So if covid had not invaded us then FPH would have done $ 1.32 B revenues and 60 cents eps in 2021 and $ 1.45 B and 72 cents in 2022 ...and thus SP would have been roughly Jan 2020 as recorded $ 22 ...Jan 2021 around $ 25 and Jan 2022 around $ 28 -$ 30 ...for a revenue of $ 1.45 B or so and eps of 70 cents or so
And stock would have been following a set uptrend with 15% growth and no one would have questioned its valuations and business
But now due to Covid we got 2021 revenues as $ 1.97B and Eps of 91 cents instead and now in 2022 we will get $ 1.70 B and 75 Cents ...
IMO 2022 figures are better then original track no covid results ...should have been roughly 1.5 B and 70 cents but we getting 1.7B and 75 cents ...original track SP would have been around $ 28-$ 30 depending on current rates and equity valuations
So far nothing majorly different then pre covid or post covid results ...just still some extra in revenues thus eps
Now most important question is will FPH return to normal growth path from 2023 with clocking positive revenues over 2022 ??? I know they have changed that to 12% revenue growth expectations from earlier 10%
I am not able to answer that question but maybe people can attempt to discuss this instead of day to day SP ....this view will majorly effect future SP of FPH ahead ...as soon SP need discount next years numbers ...which can be 90 cents eps or 65 cents eps depending on your views
Covid type big disruption of SP of FPH will take time to normalise ...once it reverts back to any repeatable and understandable path it will be market darling again
Thanks alokdhir for taking the time to put the numbers up clearly. It is what I was trying to say in a few words but yours is very precise. FPH in my view is quite possibly a stronger business than we were expecting at this stage, pre COVID. Their name, products and service has gained huge attention all around the World in the last couple of years and tens of thousands of medical professionals have been trained to use it and become familiar with it.
No marketing or advertising can do that sort of work in such a short space of time and it is invaluable to FPH in my view.
As always, a happy holder.
breakdown of channel gives $20 as a not unreasonable t/a target
Very possible and desirable too from longer term perspective ...It need become attractive to stronger hands for that to happen it need keep falling
Also as Omicron version of Covid has made respiratory support almost not required in hospitals so it will be reasonable to assume that Covid advantage to FPH revenues is almost gone from second half of the year .
If they can organically increase next half year revenues over current ones without any further covid help eg another version like Delta which required big respiratory support help then I think SP will be out of the woods ...they need to start ramping up the new contacts and customers they have made in the last two covid years ...now is the time to show the world what that can mean as they are not just one trick pony ...they have lots to sell other then just covid treatment
resmed has similar problems
Sleep treatment giant ResMed says rising freight costs and semiconductor chip shortages are curbing its ability to meet surging global demand for its devices
https://www.smh.com.au/business/comp...23-p5a77e.html
Far too intelligent an answer in reply to a downramping trading troll. I notice the executive director of the Malaghan Institute said Covid and its variants are not going anywhere for the next 50 yrs, you can expect a rampant mutant outbreak at any time (They are in the process of developing a kiwi non mRNA vaccine cheaper than the Pfizer costs, sounds good)
If u read recent FPH announcement fully ...it has said that OCA masks are doing better then last 6 months INSPITE of HARDWARE shortage ...Resmed is having Philips recall boom in sales and demand which they are unable to cash due to manufacturing troubles
Fright cost increase FPH offset to a great degree in last 6 months report by better consumables mix ...it still had 190 basis point effect on GP ...this they have been consistently flagging since covid started ...so I am not too worried ...last 6 months NP margins actually went up inspite of higher freight costs
This time lower NZD and more consumables sales will more then offset reduced GP margins due to freight thus keeping NP margins similar ...after all NP matters more then GP
No I didn’t pick an arbitrary period of time. In The post to which I was responding you had said “We tried to warn them just like we did with RYM 8 years ago that's been a dog ever since…”
So the starting point for the period was 8 years ago. I used to hold RYM so I had the 31/Mar/2014 SP on file. RYM SP has not performed as a “dog” for most of the period since then. However for a Beagle maybe performing as a dog is actually a compliment :t_up:
Sure, SUM’s SP hyper performed in comparison to RYM’s in the last 8 years….
We need a guru to post a graph of 5 (or 10) year revenue CAGR which shows FY21 outlier and forecast FY22 still ahead of the 5 year CAGR (2015-2020)
Maybe someone like W69 or Ferg has this readily available on a spreadsheet somewhere ;)
When comparing FPH to other unrelated high P/E companies it's actually better for the mind and soul if you compare against Amazon and Costco. Always trading on high multiples (like FPH) and if you stayed invested in those companies over the years you would be multi millionaire with many bags.
Dont compare against RYM and ATM.
So debate over, long term investors are still going to reap the rewards over the next 5, 10, 15.... years ;)
Here are the data (the yellow stuff is obviously based on estimates):
Attachment 13637
DYOC (do your own chart :);
Based on the last 10 years would this be an Earnings CAGR of 24.8 (Great!) and an average PE of 77 (Ouch)
Easy to see that Earnings are steady rising (with the exeption of 2022 returning to the steady growth after an exceptional 2021).
Forward CAGR would be 13.4 and forward PE 34. Still not cheap, but quite in the normal range (for FPH).
Obviously .. if the market decides to contract PE's ... or if the correction shoots over (well - under ;) ) then it is up to anybody's guess where the SP might bottom out.
Discl: holding, but not yet "full in". Still waiting for this special (which may or may not come) to keep accumulating.
Seeing both W69 sales data and BP's eps data ...its not too much away from where it should be ...maybe reaching $ 38 in August 2020 was total over exuberance and Covid fear of the market .
At present under current environment of rates and risk appetite ....FPH fair value should be $ 25-28 band ...with market eagerly looking forward to whether FPH is able to convert its recent advantage of new contacts and customers into numbers which actually move SP
It all boils down to Management quality and ability to translate leads to actuals . IMO FPH will do 2-5 % better then before in next 5 years .
my post of the news article was just in reference to my original post about fph and inflationary pressures impacting margins thats all not all the other fluff
the article says resmed is being impacted by these same inflationary pressures , anyway hammer time $20 here we come see resmed hammered today down 7%
You're too good Master Winner.
So based on my self satisfying theory.. if we take FY20 5 year CAGR of 14.4% and extrapolate out..
FY21 revenue should have been $1,444m vs $1,971m actual and;
FY22 revenue should have been $1,652m vs $1,685m forecast
So conclusion is forecast is ahead of the 5 year running CAGR.