if have could be lowball offer like low or mid 3's ,I hope i am wrong as i still hold some.
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market does not believe the easy money....winner and beagle bailed...run!!!!
Beagle's going to do a good impression of a possum in the headlights for a while and see what happens. Hopefully I don't get run over by a Z fuel tanker lol
Aha, but what goes up fast sometimes declines .. then where does it go ? up ? ;)
Whoever the bidder is - at current levels, it may be a steal .. ;)
The reputation/quality of the Wild Bean offer is such that BP can still attract sufficient customers independent of the fuel offer to be able to comfortably operate the stores even when forecourts are totally closed for maintenance or other works for periods extending beyond a week. Other than myself, I know several who regularly purchase from Wild Bean even though they would never buy BP fuel, including Z corporate staff... The irony here is that the guy who developed and positioned Wild Bean as the BP offer moved to Z and has the same brief for Z Espress, but they continue to struggle with the format and perception of the offer.
Probably not helped by the fact that People who pay for a barista coffee generally expect it to be barista made, not machine made. A Z "barista" simply fills up the milk jug, pushes the right combination of buttons and pours the result into your cup.
Another factor which I hadn't picked up on previously is the restrictions now applied to the sale of flavoured vape products which removes them from sale at service stations. Don't know if any or how much of Z's current tobacco alternative sales is flavoured, but there's another potential revenue source removed from the value equation.
https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/...el-laws-begin/
new pro-competition rules begin, and it's hoped those savings will be passed on to motorists.
As per The Australian "Ampol move on Z Energy "very logical and synergistic": analysts". Adds further "Ampol's purchase of Z Energy could enhance the petrol retailer's international trading operations, says analysts.
Now it'll be nice bidding war if Vitol is equally very keen.
you must point to this one, its speculations:
Noting recent speculative references in the media about Z potentially being anacquisition target Mike commented, “We are always very conscious of complying withour continuous disclosure obligations and we don’t think it’s helpful to provide commentson market speculation. Although we have discussions with other parties and activelyconsider opportunities that may arise from time to time, there is nothing in this area whichrequires disclosure. The Board will always consider proposals that may be in the interestsof the company and shareholders.”
What about poor old ZEL, it is looking a bit neglected today:(
More serious discussions to be advanced over the weekend and trading halt Monday morning. You read it here first.
From Credit Suisse notes:
"The broker believes an acquisition could have merit because of potential procurement and retail synergies. That said, Z Energy may not be the highest priority opportunity for Ampol and an acquisition would properly require an equity issue."
Let's prepare for trading halt on Monday!
Jeez, I didn't realise Z has lost so much market share over the last few years
Hope we here how much the takeover is going to be next week
Wondering out loud:
Do we know the other co's market shares ? Are the majors all losing share to the "minnows"? I would think so.
https://properties.colliers.co.nz/gu...paign=colliers
Is someone raising some dough?!
SP exhibiting not even a twitch today in a vast sea of red .. must be saying something .. ;)
Impending lockdown .... and Z share price collapses
Are the Aussie Media still making rumour T/O humming noises ? ;)
The Covid outbreak will stop a takeover announcement for the time being. More than likely the offer will come out at a lower figure.
I wonder if the uptick on volume will follow through?
Looks like the bid is in. 2.5 billion deal. Woohoo. Will it get past nz approvals. Have they sold Gull unmanned.
Looks like cash and scrip. Not sure whether its nz or aussuie dollars. Article is paywalled.
Australia’s Ampol has made a $2.5 billion-odd bid to acquire New Zealand’s Z Energy and become the biggest fuel retailer across the Tasman.
Street Talk can reveal Ampol and Z Energy have been in advanced talks about the takeover proposal for weeks, and have even held discussions about Ampol seeking a secondary listing of its shares on New Zealand’s NZX.
Sources said Ampol’s offer was in the “mid-$3 a share” range implying a $2.5 billion-odd valuation for the dual-listed Z Energy, including debt.
Macquarie Capital is advising Ampol, while Goldman Sachs is in Z Energy’s corner.
https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_...f39ce27b523c2bAmpol CEO Matt Halliday and his team have been in talks to acquire Z Energy for weeks, sources said. Renee Nowytarger
Ampol is expected to pitch the deal to its investors as a highly strategic bolt-on acquisition, at a time of significant change in NZ’s fuel market.
RELATED QUOTES
ZELZ Energy$2.8901.05%
Aug 20Feb 21Aug 212.2502.7503.250
AdvertisementNZ fuel players, including Z Energy, recently decided to close their Marsden Point refinery and convert it to an import terminal. The decision meant NZ was an all-import market, which will need to buy already refined fuel from larger players offshore.
The move arguably makes Z Energy, which was spun out of Infratil in 2013 and has about 330 petrol stations across its “Z” and Caltex sites, more attractive for global and regional groups that are long on fuel supply and looking for a place to sell it.
https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_3...0f6a1e95f72be7RELATED
Z Energy refuels memories of Ampol interest
Ampol, best known in Australia for its petrol stations, has a significant international trading business. (It also owns Gull in New Zealand, which has about 100 mostly unmanned fuel retail sites).
Ampol’s expected to try to fund the deal with cash and scrip, which could see it obtain a secondary listing in New Zealand.
The company’s well-regarded CEO, Matt Halliday, is sitting on a healthy balance sheet following a real estate spin-off last year, and had net borrowings worth $434 million at December 31.
Balance of power
The group’s long-term gearing target is for adjusted net debt to be worth 1.5-times to 2-times earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation. Analysts expect it to report $1.08 billion EBITDA in 2021, increasing to $1.175 billion next year.
Acquiring Z Energy could add another $5 billion to Ampol’s sales in 2025, according to analyst forecasts for Z Energy, and $350 million or so in EBITDA, pre synergies.
Ampol may need to factor in synergies to make the acquisition accretive for its shareholders. Z Energy shares last traded at 7.9-times next-12-month forecast EBITDA, while Ampol’s were at 7.8-times.
A spokesman for Ampol did not return a call on Sunday. Z Energy, responding to Street Talk’s reports about strategic interest in the company, told shareholders last month: “Although we have discussions with other parties and actively consider opportunities that may arise from time to time, there is nothing in this area which requires disclosure.”
Sources said the recent talks were not the first time Ampol had considered buying Z Energy. Indeed, Ampol is understood to have had a close look back in its Caltex Australia days before Canadian Alimentation Couche-Tard came calling in 2019.
That's about 4.80 per share, however article says "Sources said Ampol’s offer was in the “mid-$3 a share” range implying a $2.5 billion-odd valuation for the dual-listed Z Energy, including debt."
Not sure how 2.5billion bid equates to mid-$3 a share on 520,136,969 current outstanding shares for Z. Unless its mid-$3 s share plus a portion of Ampol's scrip.
,$2.5b minus debts...$700 plus debts
They going to say something --- hope not a lot of pre-amble like Jacinda's press conferences
The halt follows ZEL’s confirmation that it will shortly be in position to make a statement to the market about a possible material transaction. NZ RegCo has determined that it is in the best interests of maintaining an orderly market in ZEL’s securities to apply a trading halt, until ZEL is able to release its announcement regarding those discussions.
Deleted this post
Hmmm. The press says offer round 2.5 b. Shares on issue 520136969. If my math is right then offer in high $4 range? Have I missed anything?
3.78
maybe scrip
other lower offers.
$750m debts
3.78 per share is the price says bloomberg
3.78 to is rather a lowball offer. I would have thought in the 4s easy
$3.78 - wow, best price since prior to covid, easy get out of jail card for holders - if the comcom approves that is.
yes i wondering the same technically you go down to 3 majors Z , BP and mobil and a minnow waitomo so it is reducing the competition as gull is swallowed up.
when nz refining was voted to go import terminal only really pushed by Z it was only a matter of time before Z was taken over as now nz refining as a import terminal only makes it very profitable for a big oil company overseas to import there fuel into nz via z
Got which Monday wrong by a week. Better late than never. I'm on record many times as saying the business is a bit of a dog...but I got a few because (where there's smoke there's usually fire), and I think if Mike Bennett and some of the other senior management could be forced into retirement there's some mileage in this sunset business. Commerce commission presents as a challenge but Gull could easily be sold as part of the deal and I note many of the Gull service stations are on the market and Gull really haven't been competing very hard on price lately, (around where I live).
$3.78 is probably all the business is worth as is...will be worth more when its managed properly but that's value that accrues to the purchaser, (not unlike the MET scheme of arrangement).
It looks like they've already gone through the process of upping the bid - from $3.30, to $3.78 so there probably isn't much chance it will go much higher than this point, rather Ampol would walk away and let Z fall back to barely $3 mark (and given the current level 4 lockdown, fuel demand would have dropped off a cliff, hampering earnings this FY).
Investing in ZEL now, would be like investing in a coal yard 8 years ago.
They dont do retail well,
Electric and soon hydrogen snapping on their heels...
But Mike Bennetts will say; "We welcome this change..."
NZ Refining now in play
i took money and run, given ampol own gull new zealand, i can not see why commerce commission give green light to this deal.
What? $3.80. It wasn't so long ago Milford had these valued at over $6.00. I wouldn't be happy with anything but all cash at over $4.00.
who are Ampol going to buy the shares off?
what % do they hold already? It is presumably less than 5 otherwise we would know
Ampol said they are gonna sell gull should they buy Zel.
The attempted takeover of Caltex/Ampol recently was pretty aggressive with improved offers and new contenders coming out of the wooodwork. Covid stopped the final deal
Possibly more interested parties for Z might emerge ….no schemes of arrangement just a hostile takeover.
Hope so
Can not be so cheap....$4.50 at least
ZEL BOD have given AMPOL 4 weeks exclusive due diligence. That doesn't rule out other bidders (whose offers could also be subject to a period of DD) but does it suggest no one was as keen (or quick) as AMPOL. here's hoping VITOL (or someone else) shows their hand too
GLTAH
378 / 349 = 8.3% return. Not guaranteed of course but the possibility of more cannot be ignored.
https://amp-theaustralian-com-au.cdn...d7645ab952b0b4
Looks like a competing bid is more than likely.
Let’s hope The Australian keeps drumming up these kind of articles and other offers come in, ideally a lot higher than the current low ball one!
Caltex/Ampol told Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. to bugger off when they offered $32
They came back with a $34.50 offer
An outfit called EG Group with a convoluted offer
They eventually went away
Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. We’re still interested and started talking again
Covid scare them off last year
Ampol share price now $26 odd…..recovering from $20 when Covid struck and Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. walked away
Hope a deal goes through …..all downside for Z share price if it doesn’t
Ampol rubbing their hands together. Are this is good, lets put in a low offer now while they are in lockdown while things are grim over there and see if we can snatch it away. If they offering $3.78 then it is worth a lot more. If ZEL was worth $3.78c then the starting offer on the table would only be about $2 something.;)
Those Aussies, I think the underhand offer is a low ball. The BOD are saying, yes come in and do your due diligence but we are looking for more. There is no way they will settle or recommend anything under $4.00 to perhaps $4.50. Z is not under too much pressure, its not desperate. Covid is affecting AMPOL in Australia just the same as z in NZ. Also they know there are more competing offers out there. The BOD have had the nod not shareholders. I see this settling at $4.50, so hold on to your shares. If its not AMPOL, it will be someone else. These chances do not come around every day. Its worth more.
I put my hand up for a few more at $3.48 today.
During the four-week exclusivity period, Z Energy cannot solicit offers from other parties but Bennetts said the announcement of the talks may flush out other interest. "If somebody else thinks they can make a better offer than Ampol, they can come along and knock on our door at any time."
Guess Z will soon not be for new Zealand!
some good quotes in the SMH (not sure if these have been posted elsewhere):
"However, Z Energy chief executive Mike Bennetts said he expected Ampol’s offer to be a catalyst for other bidders that had previously signalled interest in the company to come forward with higher offers. ... “There have been others that have shown interest in Z from time to time, and they may see this as the catalyst to put a bit more oomph behind that interest,” Mr Bennetts told The Age and the Herald.“Someone else may not have the issues around the divestment that Ampol may have, and they might be able to offer a better price as a result.”
MST Marquee analyst Mark Samter said he believed Z Energy had been “horribly underpriced” by the equity market and there could be a long list of potential bidders including Chevron, Vitol, Glencore, Trafigura and Japanese refiners.
“I don’t think we can rule out interlopers,” he said. “Time will tell.”
https://www.smh.com.au/business/comp...23-p58l14.html
Someone else can still raise their hand: it’s very typical in situations like this for a company to advance into an exclusive due diligence period while still being open to the approach of others,” Mr Bennetts told The Australian Financial Review.
I think they are expecting competing offers. They have others in the wings.
Price been manipulated for quite some time imo. Before Covid SP was racing towards $7. NZ's vaccination rollout with borders reopening once population vaccinated. Covid for us could be a thing of the past. Tourism returning be a huge boost for ZEL sales.
Disc hold
everyone agree that it's not too late to jump in and that the take over offer will not just disappear?
Anyone notice Morningstar updated their valuation today from $5 something to $3.78c.:t_down:.
Ampol may have to sweeten Z Energy offer, as rivals are tipped to emerge https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...NH5EALHE57YSU/ Paywalled
On the face of it Ampol's $3.78 bid for Z Energy appears reasonable, in our view a higher price will be required to secure a deal," Forsyth Barr analysts Andrew Harvey-Green and Mark Robertson wrote in a note to clients. Z Energy's decision to open its books to the Sydney-headquartered company for four weeks "is designed to entice a more attractive bid from [Ampol], flush out other possible suitors and enable it to talk to shareholders".
We reduce our fair value for Z Energy by 33% to NZD 3.78, in line with the Ampol's bid. The decline in value is in accord with the terms of a proposed merger and our prior stand-alone fair value estimates. Merger and acquisition activity continues at a frenetic pace in the Australasian fossil fuel space, coronavirus fragility and carbon concerns marking some as prey. This time it has moved downstream to the refined fuel retail segment. Ampol is proposing an NZD 3.78 per share cash offer for Z Energy via scheme of arrangement. Australia's largest refined fuel retailer has been granted a four week-exclusivity period in which to undertake due diligence prior to formalising the offer for its smaller New Zealand counterpart. Ampol is also considering an option to include a partial share consideration and secondary listing on the NZX.
Despite there being no certainty that discussions will result in a binding agreement, we think the chance of success is high. The latest is apparently the fourth in a series of non-binding offers from Ampol, including at NZD 3.35, NZD 3.50, and NZD 3.60 along the way. And there is logic to a merger–Ampol and Z have very similar business models. Z Energy's board wouldn't have opened the books if the chance of a deal proceeding was low. At NZD 3.78 Ampol will be getting Z Energy at a material 33% discount to our NZD 5.60 stand-alone fair value.
Our formal recommendation for Z shareholders is don't accept, based solely upon the offer's material discount to our NZD 5.60 standalone fair value. However, we suspect that advice is likely to prove academic. Z shares rose just over 14% on the day to NZD 3.48, though still 8% below the proposed bid level. They have moved just into 4-star territory from 3-star prior.
Ampol intends to fund the acquisition via a combination of new debt, potential divestments, and an equity issuance in the order of AUD 600 million. The equity issuance may take the form of partial share consideration to Z shareholders.
Is this standard practice or just lazy? They are pretty clear it's not what they put the value at.
The way I see it is they're just being practical in that , they consider the bid will succeed at that price and hence thats what you will get so thats what its worth. They still mention their $5 level as fair value.