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However, we can confirm that you will not be exposed to any out of pocket costs as a result of your participation or registration in the claim.
https://www.slatergordon.com.au/clas...-investigation
Buyback to commence 5th October. 1Q23 EBITDA expected to be inline with plan.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/399700
3/10/2022, 8:30am MKTUPDTE
The a2 Milk Company (a2MC, the Company) is pleased to advise that it has renewed its exclusive import and distribution arrangements with China State Farm Agribusiness Holding Shanghai Co., Ltd (CSFA) for a term of five years from 1 October 2022.
I guess this is about as unexpected as day following night or the outcome of any AGM vote about management paying the auditors ...
It is basically saying that Shanghai City Holding will continue to buy the products from Shanghai City Holding. Don't forget - they minority own and majority control Synlait and they have as well an interest in Mataura Valley Milk.
What a surprise they continue to buy their own products! Well down ATM, I recon they had to negotiate really hard.
More interesting will be how they plan to circumvent the export ban after Xi's war in Taiwan has started ...
Hard to say - I guess sure, it would not be clever.
But lets face it - leaders like Putin and Xi are not in their respective positions for their brains. I even would say that intelligence is counterproductive to run a populist agenda. What they need is all the traits of a bully, particular brutality and the ability to identify weak opponents who they can kill before the opponents kill them.
So, who knows, but I certainly would not exclude it.
Xi said he will unite Taiwan with the mainland and he said that if necessary he will use force. I don't see for him any other option to complete this landgrab, same as for Putin. Do you?
What's this Care A2 Plus that's looking at an IPO in OZ - all the rage on Hot Copper which I can't see because banned for life over there
NBR had a story about. Tim Hunter made this comment -
On current form, NZX-listed A2 Milk will not be quaking in its boots about Care A2 Plus specifically, but the wider problem is whether its arrival signals the ultimate commoditisation of A2 products, eroding the aura of exclusivity and margins along with it.
That is a bit of a worry
That was always going to be the worry for them especially with other companies copying their A2 strategy. Thats where their branding should hopefully have been cemented in the minds of consumers. They had a head start and now they have to make sure they keep their advantage.
Very similar to the early days of Trilogy and their rosehip oil product. They had an advantage of being one of the first to really push the product to market and then if you look now theres tons of rosehip oil products on the market. Trilogy has done one thing thats stood out for them, they cemented their brand as a premium brand and I see that A2 has done the same, so any copy cats come off as cheaper knock-offs and they should still have the hearts and minds of the consumer wanting the best A2 product on the market.
Au contraire, it is milk. What brand is in your fridge? Anchor? I have to think new mother's equals new customer's who will make their own judgement. I know this from watching my daughter and her friends make these decisions recently.
The news of Care A2 Plus IPO garnered all of three posts on the HC A2M thread ... this is what they thought of it:
"It's been around in Aus a few years, has very low sales and market penetration here. The main point of differentiation is they add lactoferrin to their A2 formula (similar to A2 China label product).
It is owned and (until now) funded by a large multinational mining company based in the US, and got approval to sell in the US during the FDA's temporary enforcement freeze.
I say 'until now' because after they go public, it will be shareholders funding what looks like a very low margin / high cost business."
--------------
"Recent article about the competition ' Care A2+.' WHat a joke of a company.
"Care has a factory in Victoria and secured distribution through Chemist Warehouse, Woolworths and Terry White Chemists, among others, the prospectus said. Care A2 had only $365,918 revenue in the year to June 30, the prospectus said, and reported a $5.3 million loss in the financial year."
For every $1 of product the sold, they lost more than $10. Terrible business company compared to a2, and aiming for a market cap of 400 million"
----------
"Yeah this is what I was getting at in my response to the other poster earlier. I guess private equity has had enough of bleeding cash and they are trying to use the temporary FDA approval to rope shareholders into what is clearly an atrociously performing business. FYI the article says they are aiming at a $520M - $544M (AUD) market cap - what a joke!"
The AFR article on the Care A2+ IPO https://www.afr.com/street-talk/care...0221018-p5bqtu
Key take outs:
Care Corporation, set up to acquire infant formula group Care A2 Plus Pty Ltd, is asking listed equities investors to value its equity at as much as $544.4 million for its proposed debut on the ASX-boards.
Care Corp has lodged a prospectus for a $24.75 million to $49.5 million initial public offering via Morgans which, if successful, would see it have shares on issue worth $520 million to $544.4 million.
Care A2 had only $365,918 revenue in the year to June 30, the prospectus said, and reported a $5.3 million loss in the financial year.
New shareholders would own up to only 10 per cent of the group. The offer was at 75˘ a share.
A2 Milk published their presentation to the SELECT EQUITIES 6TH ANNUAL CHINA CONFERENCE. 27 October 2022.
FY22 result delivered double-digit growth in revenue and earnings in a challenging market
• Group results in line with the Company’s expectations
− Group revenue growth of 19.8% to $1,446.2 million (growth of 11.2% ex-MVM) with 2H22 up 18.9% on 1H22 (15.7% ex-MVM)
− EBITDA1 up 59.0% to $196.2 million, EBITDA margin 13.6% in FY22 (16.1% ex-MVM)
− NPAT, including non-controlling interest, up 42.3% to $114.7 million with $122.6 million attributable to owners of the Company2
− Closing net cash of $816.5 million with operational cash conversion of 114%4
On track to achieve ambition to grow sales to $2 billion and improve EBITDA margins over time
- $2 billion revenue goal implies a 4-year CAGR of 8.5% from FY22 if achieved by FY26
- Outlook for FY23 is for high single digit revenue growth broadly consistent with achieving medium term ambition over time
Good stuff baabaa
Good ambition - On track to achieve ambition to grow sales to $2 billion by FY26
Doesn't really seem that long ago they were 1 reporting period away from achieving $2 billion
That's the past - been reset and a new game now eh
Gave many an opportunity to have another ride on the A2 merry go round eh
Yeah maybe, I see you're still dissing it at another place, paying the piper?
"My bad basil ...their ambition is revenue 8.5% pa and to improve margins.
So profit growth could be 10% pa
So maybe PE of 18 should be in your calcs ....share price $3.78
That's better eh
Talk of share buy back ..that should help as well"
Probably haven't noticed it's already up 40% from $4.20 since May this year, higher highs and higher lows, and all that. Easier to run with the crowd than have an opinion for yourself.
Still some distant glimmer of hope for a peg or two north of $15 then ? :)
Wasn't 'dissing' it at another place but thanks for posting here anyway
I had noticed the 40% rise over last 6 months ..... another 40% with higher highs and higher lows and we'll see and we'll se a share price over 8 bucks middle of next year
I better hang in there eh .... even though it doesn't seem 'cheap' but what the heck fundamentals don't matter - its all about sentiment these days
interesting comments in bubs update yesterday
CHINA: Strategic focus on Manufacturer-To-Consumer (M2C) omnichannel modelAcross the infant formula category, a significant number of brands have oversupplied the market, includinglocal Chinese brands. This has created a significant decline in margin across all distribution partners.
http://research.iress.com.au/IDS/old...091850000&ppv=
Finally got the FDA approval that's been waiting in the wings for a long time..
https://www.fda.gov/food/infant-form...rmula-supplies
They can't type as fast as you mate
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/401681
they do say they wont make money from the us deal
In terms of FY23 earnings impact, whilst incrementally beneficial, the Company expects gross margins to be lower than average, distribution costs to be higher due to potential air freight and rework costs in the near term, and incremental marketing and trade investment to enter the category. The Company will provide an update on US IMF distribution gains and sales outlook in connection with its 1H23 interim results release or earlier as appropriate.
and it only lasts a few mths .... hardly worth it ? or are they hoping it become lasting
Has opened back close to $6.
Since they have been selling liquid milk for quite some time, I dont see any drastic spend on sourcing new outlets to stock IF.
Does walgreens stock A2 milk? They could be a new potential customer base to enter(if not already)
Will be a very interesting open in Aust today.
In the 3rd paragraph it says it is only approved for 9 weeks to 6/1/23, then what, will they disapprove it ?
This is a long term pathway into the US
All helping on the path to $2 billion sales by 2026
You'd hope with this news they would come out soon a with a new ambition - like $2 billion sales in 2024 ....easy peasy
D Ters share today ! $5-94 --- $6-28 back to $5-9? so far. ? hope they did well for a change !
Latest good news took share price back to 6 bucks
That's 43% up from recent low
That's pretty cool
Buyback started.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/401941
USA Infant formula market ain't a place you'd want to put money into. OK as a marginal volume play but not otherwise.
PS last week we came across A2 Brand fresh milk at supermarket in lovely Revelstoke, in the heart of the Canadian Rockies - must be coming in from the US? Also lots NZ fruit and wine.
They have started working on the Canadian market a while back..
https://www.a2milk.ca/
But in Canada they may be facing lot of duplicates-which would be a challenge in itself.One “sheldon creek diary” is a prime example of how difficult it would be…
https://www.sheldoncreekdairy.ca/
Chart showing good momentum on back of buy back, singles day sales (11/11) and ASM next week. Could well see sp with 7 handle soon, stars seem to be aligning in right direction.
Going to be short carnage if that AU$6 breaks I suspect. Inverse H&S.
Just a matter of when, rather than if, $6 is cracked?
IMO, Mid to high $7's would then be the next major train station to visit.
ATM is nearly 52 weeks high. How many shares are reaching 52 weeks high in this year's market?
Could well be close to 7 bucks with some decent news/update (mostly around 11/11 sales) this Fri at the ASM.
Well, I guess ATM is always good for an interesting case study.
Company with a pathetic earnings history (backward PE in the fourties), very limited earnings CAGR (forward CAGR 6.2), demonstrated management incompetence (putting all their eggs into one basket without even understanding the spec for that basket) and no moat worthwhile talking about (everybody is now selling A2 milk and rightly can do so) ... and punters still push the share price again into the stratosphere.
I guess this is at best a cyclical agricultural company deserving perhaps a PE of 10. Even if I allow for their meagre earnings CAGR to continue and put their average future earnings at something like 25 cents ... even then is their (forward) PE well north of 20.
2 dear for me. Just wondering - do they put anything untoward into their milk and do share holders have to drink it?
BP, just wonder where did you get that forward CAGR 6.2? My calculation is, if ATM achieved their mid-term objective of sales at $2b, EBITDA at 22.5% of sales, then earnings CAGR would be 26%. Plus they are buying back shares, to 2026 FY, EPS would be 40C. PE ratio should match the earnings growth that is 25-26. So my target SP, by 2026, is over $10.
3 years forward earnings based on analyst consensus plus current year's earnings.
It looks like you use revenue CAGR. I am not interested in revenue - only the stuff below the black line matters:) ;
Obviously - given that the base earning are so small, it is easy to increase the CAGR if you use a different number of years or use slightly different estimates.
But frankly - I don't see where huge growth for ATM should come from. The Chinese market is getting smaller and quite dubious anyway (high geo-political risks), the US market is still in its infant years and full of tough regulation and tough competition with a high risk that populists close this market before it really opens. European market certainly not waiting for us.
In my view the analyst estimates are too optimistic anyway - and the ATM story is over, though there might be some more hype ripples to come.
But anyway - good luck to holders.
This recent preso says the ambition for EBITDA margin is a target in the 'teens' by F26.... must have adjusted down their ambitions of 22.5%
One of the 'unknowns' from my perspective is how much of a drag is MVM going to be on earnings going forward
Page 7
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...275/382054.pdf
Some indication of the MVM drag is on the page before:
Group results inline with the Company’s expectations
− Group revenue growth of 19.8% to $1,446.2 million (growth of 11.2% ex-MVM) with 2H22 up 18.9% on 1H22 (15.7% ex-MVM)
− EBITDA1 up 59.0% to $196.2 million, EBITDA margin 13.6% in FY22 (16.1% ex-MVM)
− NPAT, including non-controlling interest, up 42.3% to $114.7 million with $122.6 million attributable to owners of the Company2 − Closing net cash3 of $816.5 million with operational cash conversion of 114%4
Haters gonna hate, already missed 58% up from the bottom.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/402600
The a2 Milk Company (“a2MC” or the “Company”) is today hosting its Annual Meeting in Auckland, New Zealand. During his address to shareholders, David Hearn, Chair of the Board, will announce that he intends to stand down as a Board member and Chair at the next Annual Meeting in November 2023, as he comes to the natural end of his term as a Director after nine years on the Board.
As a result, and in order to ensure a smooth transition, the Board has spent significant time recently considering the best replacement for the Chair. After that due consideration the Board has come to the unanimous conclusion that Pip Greenwood, who has been on the Board for over three years, has both the skills and importantly the experience to take over from David Hearn at that time.
Mr Hearn said: “Whilst I recognise that we have had some turbulent times recently, it is an extraordinary experience to play a part in the development of this amazing business. I consider it a personal privilege to serve as your Chair and I want to take this opportunity to thank you for your support both for the Company and me personally.”
“Not only will Pip bring her excellent skills to the role, but importantly this plan also represents a balanced blend of Board refreshment together with continuity, which we believe is absolutely appropriate after a period of significant change at both Board and Executive Leadership Team levels within the business,” said Mr Hearn.
By order of the Board of Directors
$7 here we come...
- Having regard to year-to-date currency movements and should currency remain at prevailinglevels, full year reported revenue is likely to increase to low double-digit growth compared toprevious guidance of high single-digit growth. The Company also reiterates its guidance that1H23 growth (on 1H22) is expected to be significantly higher than 2H23 growth (on 2H22)
Isn't that a downgrade of sorts
Sales growth only 12%/12% instead of 17%/18% .... quite a difference v expectations
In addition they said '..EBITDA margin (% of sales) is expected to be similar to prior year
compared to previous guidance of a modest improvement' - so no margin improvement
That's about $20m ebitda less than expected
Seems market seen it this way as well today
I read low double digit growth to be like 12-13% compared to high single digit growth which is 8-9%. I leave you to figure out which one is bigger growth number. While EBITDA margin remain to be same, higher revenue will result in higher EBITDA $, higher NPAT $ and therefore higher EPS and even higher EPS with less outstanding shares (due to buy back).
I take it as positive, today's price movement is probably due to profit taking / friday trading and general market sentiment.
A2 Milk needs its own dairy factories, Heard says
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/far...ies-heard-says
No doubt A2 spending $288m on their Synlait stake makes good 'strategic sense'
But that $289m is only worth $127m now - under water by $162m (down 56%) ..... but no worries its only money.
Better returns on their investments in the future I hope
The Chair made it very clear, repeatedly, that the Synlait and MVM acquisitions were 'strategic', cosying up to the China players, and repeated a number of times how important those relationships are to A2.
I doubt whether A2 give much thought to what the market thinks about Synlait capital value, unless it provides an opportunity to increase the % ownership share alongside Bright Dairy.
The emphasis on the new Director over improving and building supply chains, manufacturing and distribution was referred to as well, a number of times.
Retaining about $660m cash, after the buyback, "for strategic investment", suggests they already have an eye to where the next manufacturing expansion might be.
I'd guess we'll see at least one manufacturing play in China before too long. I doubt whether any A2 ownership in any manufacturing facility will be outright owned where partnership synergies provide strategic advantages.
Attachment 14327Attachment 14328
Upgrade to “Smart Nutriton” and a protein formulation coming soon.
Forming nice long term bullish trend here, next stop $7...
Inching close to $7 mark...
I am not certainly sure that the current uptrend is solely related to the buyback...
1.The buyback is just about 37M shares(which can go down if the buying price goes up)-thats about 4-5% of the equity
2.China lockdown should be history soon which inturn can be a double edged sword for the population.The easing would increase COVID cases and decrease local IF production(fear of going out) and also with such low immunity things can turn into custard quite quickly.
3.This may eventuate pantry stocking(just how it happened in 2020)
4.Question is...Can SML manage the spurt in demand of English Label and reignite Daigou...
5.FDA approval is uncharted territory(hit or miss-no one really knows)
Thoughts??
12 months high atm @ $7.60 onward and upward .
The diagou 'exporting' has obviously been assisting the SP today with the government announcement. Time will tell whether or not a good decision.
Next PT will be $8, after they report half year result at the end of next month.
Hypocrite. Your last comment, from the king of giving 'bad reputation'.
Attachment 14405
16 bucks by Xmas 2023 ? ;)
Yeah / Nah or maybe ? ;)
must still be some love left for the battered A2M out there and distant memories of former glory
probably a few jumping on their bikes to recover past large losses too :)
ATM thread brought the first scrap of the new year too ...seems interest coming back with W69 also present ...:p
Kingfish have remained positive on A2 through all the ups and downs - obviously a high conviction stock for them
In June 2020 they had $60m 'invested' in A2
Never really sold any shares and since then have increased number of shares from about 3.0 million to 4.5 million in September 2022
Those 4.5 million shares in September worth about $28m - so keeping the faith has been costly
But no doubt still 'adding' to their position so returns from here should be pretty good
As the guys at Kingfish keep on saying 'good times always come after bad times' so no worries
Looks like another UP day today for ATM
If anybody still a naysayer you better get on board quick
Over 8 bucks next week and an announcement coming up next month to boost the price even more
They did reduce at least thats what they said in newsletter in Dec 2020 before downgrade and then some more in March qtr 2021 ...latter added some more while in low $ 5s ...so did some trading ...Yes did never really fully exited the position ...now it's about 6% of portfolio .
Its helping them underpin NAV while MFT and SUM is bottoming out while FPH has reversed with IFT evergreen ...your EBO is at 2.5% in the green for them
Seems like a happy mix to me ...soon when more stocks start firing then NAV shud leap ...its doing steady at the mo
Just to add a bit more data to the discussion (all $ are Australian - i.e. multiply with whatever if you prefer NZD):
The 11 analysts as published by yahoo or market screener predict for the coming three years (actually the third year is only published in market screener) an average earnings of 22 cents per share (consensus).
This would be (at todays price) a forward PE of 32.
Forward earnings CAGR is not really flash either: 5.7 - Hmm.
Share clarity offers a DCF value per share of $7.17 ... and analyst consensus (of above 11 analysts) is only $6.17 per share;
Now - I know that analyst forecasts ar rarely worth the paper they are printed on (remember - NOBODY can predict the future), however - they are in average not worse than anybody else's forecasts either ... and normally analysts are optimistic. Plain Darwinism - optimism pays if you work for a broker.
So, sorry - I can't find a reason to buy this share based on fundamentals ... but don't take my word for it ... hype can create miraculous ups and downs. Just take care - its a dangerous world out there.
Hey BP - youknow by now that broker analysts targets follow the share price when share price is going up - and vice versa when going down .... just give them a bit of time to catch up
What' sSimply Wall St - usually pretty good guess
I see Simply Wall St says this
REWARDS
Trading at 17.8% below our estimate of its fair value (so Target must be about $9)
Earnings are forecast to grow 17.97% per year / Earnings grew by 52% over the past year
RISK ANALYSIS
A2M passed our risk checks.
So lots of topside and low risk and love that 18% growth
Share price up more than 1% so far today
On a roll to 8 bucks plus
At 8.40 it will be up 100% from recent low….and that only about 9 months ago
Can’t do much better than that
Wish you hadn’t mentioned the buyback sb9
Had a dream it ended up like the FBU buyback ….. FBU bought $273m of shares and paid an average of $6.63 ….share price now $4.77
Seems a common occurrence companies paying over the odds for their own shares …hope A2 an exception
Anybody know what the average A2 has paid so far
Average buy price in buy back seems to be about A$5.45
That’s good buying
Lets not talk about Simply Wall Street, please.
Otherwise - sure, analysts typically use some of the well known formulas like Grahams formula, Earnings times something (often 10 or 12.5), or they do a DCF with input which is anybody's best guess (sometimes they reveal that as well) and if the outcome is too outrageous they moderate their raw forecast with some fudge factor to bring it closer to the SP of the day ... as any reasonable analyst would do. This creates obviously the illusion that estimates are following SP (which by the way they do ...).
Anyway - we both agree that analyst consensus doesn't correlate with the future share price, but I still think they can add value. They give you exactly what any other good analyst can provide ... some analysis of the past and some random guesses of the future. However - they show you at least what the market (who has no clue as well what will happen in the future) is thinking. This is useful information.
Agree BP that analyst consensus doesn't correlate with the future share price, …
But
….we could say share price (current) correlates with future analyst consensus targets
I don't really have anything to add to a discussion on ATM as I have found that trying to forecast its performance has been like throwing a dart from behind the oche whilst blindfolded.
Foreigner or not, there is nothing wrong with "unpolite." However I am but another foreigner too, as I am entitled to two other nationalities, by descent. "Unpolite" is more of a British usage. So foreign as well I guess? However I also think "unpolite" is more appropriate (more emphatic?) in different contexts compared with "impolite." However I had foreign influences in my upbringing.
Disc: ATM shareholder.
Now 3 weeks since any buyback and price still going up