Oh, is that why my BUY was rejected
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Judging by the trading of the last 45 minutes some ones knew something as the S P went up some .40 + ?
Isn't that sort of overly high bidding extremely suspicious for insider trading especially right before a trading halt... Would think all those trades will get looked at by FMA
ASX
2 August 2022
NZX/ASX Market Release
a2MC notes and responds to media speculation
The a2 Milk Company (a2MC, the Company) notes a media article that has appeared online in the Australian
Financial Review today that suggests that the Company is nearing approval from the US Food and Drug
Administration (FDA) to allow a2MC to import infant milk formula products into the US and that such approval
could be received “as soon as this week”.
The Company wishes to confirm that while we have been informed by the FDA that our application is under active
review, at this stage there is no certainty as to the outcome of the application or the timing of any approval.
No conspiracy here, AFR published a couple of articles today, one was no contract with the largest corporate daigou in Oz and the other was speculating on an FDA decision possibly this week.
Market reacts, very quickly. Company calls a halt, to clarify situation. I reckon they know about the FDA decision but FDA haven't announced it, so company gives them a couple of days to announce before lifting the halt.
Could be wrong of course, but the wording on the TH notices and market release imply 'new information' is available that they can't talk about right now.
Good short squeeze yesterday. Longs need to keep the pressure on this morning.
That's when this was all new. BUB much smaller company, so larger relative impact. At this point who is expecting that this won't get approved? No one, so it's priced in.
It must break the high of the short squeeze and get follow through, or this will drift back down imo.
Closed a few clicks above the early June highs, and 30% up from the May bottom low, trending nicely in the right direction. TA is a pullback from the 200EMA resistance today, time for a breather. Reporting soon.
The bulls have got it. That's an important break and should really start to see continued sustained short covering.
Saw an job ad advertising for production workers on a 24hr (2 x 12hr shifts) making baby formula.
bad news
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...696/376218.pdf
timber :scared:
Appears currently US has enough suppliers ..........
The a2 Milk Company (a2MC, the Company) wishes to advise that earlier today it received notification from the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) that, at this time, the FDA is deferring further consideration of the Company’s request for enforcement discretion to import infant milk formula (IMF) products into the US.
The Company has also subsequently been advised by the International Dairy Foods Association (IDFA) that equivalent letters have been sent to all pending enforcement discretion applicants, indicating that the FDA is deferring any further review at this time of all pending applications.
Authorised for release by
David Bortolussi
Bubs mkt cap NZ$ 500m looking underpriced
ATM Mkt Cap 4100mlooking overpriced
Bubs register wide open with short term FDA approval and long term entrance under consideration
A scrip plus cash bid for Bubs at a 20% premium would attract Bubs shareholders and could well be value accretive for ATM
In meantime surely ATM should pick a few cheap BUBs up in the market?
Not the outcome many were looking for from the FDA, but given everyone thought it would be a short term supply anyway it wasn't a big loss by this outlook (though of course it dashes the long term potential many hoped A2 would have in the US), though with the international market opening up again, overall sentiment for A2 is positive.
Share price has been sold down in panic, but has bounced back a little for those who realise the overall picture and value the company still has.
The recent rally in ATM was purely associated with the potential of US market entry. Saying that has not come to fruition, makes sense the SP will now decline back to where it was prior to the excitement of pending FDA approval. More than likely a gradual decline to follow on its way back down to $4.80 NZD
FDA still looking after their own, they have only let in mostly smaller companies in to fill supply. I think we thought that given A2 was supplying milk there, that supplying infant formula wasn't too far of a stretch, turns out it is. Best to focus on easier entry markets and better creativity in expanding the companies product range, production efficiencies and possible acquisitions.
Now to see how management have been handling things when the next set of financials come out at the end of the month.
I would be asking why management had never applied for FDA approval for formula anyway when they first established their operations in the US, wouldn't that have been a logical thing to have done as a matter of course (to include your main product in the approvals for a new market)..... seems to me management have dropped the ball again.
they probably havnt applied because US market for infant formula is a monopoly controlled by a few players. add to that the regs and tarrifs and wic programme controlled by these monopolies and its probably near on impossible to break into this market for infant formula
I wonder why they haven't gone after Canada or the UK where the population mindset would have similarities as Australia and the same success could be replicated. It seems the bigger the companies gotten the more they are only focused towards big markets and ignored the easier and smaller markets to dominate.
They have been in the UK - 2017 annual report says "There is, meanwhile, significant potential for further growth in our priority markets in Australia, China, the United States and the United Kingdom"
2019 Annual Report refers: "Volume sales of a2 Milk™ branded fresh milk increased by more than 50% against the previous year through gains in distribution and in-store sales velocity.However, the UK continues to be a challenging market to achieve scale"
By 2020 the operations seem to have been discontinued.
Oh thats true they did go after the UK a while back, then it seems they should stop with the liquid milk chase as its not where the margins are and hard to win with branding. They should double down on an infant formula strategy where the real margins are, especially given the success they reaped in China and the profits it brought.
They have nearly a billion in cash and assets they could use if they wanted, time to get creative!
US is a highly fragmented market and its been a while since A2 went there and still incurring losses...
Lets face it... Chinese market were at one point making 32% margins which will never happen in the US. The proof is in the pudding...
FDA story is still on a small base and short term.. so no fuss on the deferral.
Wonder why they haven't entered the Middle eastern market...(with innovative cheese based products-They love cheese!)
Does that even make sense? What are you trying to say? Bubs is a tiny outfit, they got FDA approval and it's probably material to their revenue. If ATM got approval, it wouldn't be material to revenue and they've said so, except maybe a foot in the door for IF into USA ongoing. It's been deferred like all applicants, not rejected, there's a difference. What has the previous long-gone CEO got to do with? Not sure where you're coming from.
This article sheds more light from the FDA of why A2 Milks application was deferred, however Fonterra's application was not: https://www.reuters.com/business/hea...la-2022-08-09/
Fonterra, however, told Reuters that it had not yet received any such notice from the FDA itself.
An FDA spokesperson told Reuters in an email response that the FDA had sent letters to some firms, not all, deferring further reviews of applications due to a list of issues.
"For firms that received letters, they do not mean that the infant formulas are unsafe; rather, they indicate that we have found issues that would unlikely be resolved quickly," the spokesperson said.
i think this aus company got into the US and it sell's a2 milk
https://carea2plus.com/about-us/
At Care A2+ it’s our mission to care more. Care for the health and wellbeing
of children while caring for the impact on mother nature’s environment. We use
single sourced Australian grass fed A2 cows milk. We are the first to add Lactoferrin
in our formulas.
Looks like FDA news as of y'day was storm in a tea cup. Market more interested in bigger picture of earnings, leave those FDA muppets to their own fate. Who cares about small earnings from that channel for short term and at next to nothing margin. My guess is that DB would've asked for longer term supply relationship beyond Nov'22 and don't think FDA would've been keen on that idea.
Attachment 14063
https://youtu.be/Na811tR1gFQ
Kim Kardashian has a2 Milk in her office.
Results:
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/397774
and we know what they're doing with some of the cash their sitting on, announcement of a share buyback:
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/397773
Excellent results, beats consensus: http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...774/377792.pdf
$ 1.446 billion revenue +19.8%
$ 122.6 million net profit +52%
$ 150 million share buyback
ATM on fire ...now surely the worst is over ...No going back below $ 5 !!!
Hmm - any DCF is just as good as the underlying assumptions it is based on. Might be worthwhile to check them and remember how many people are able to predict not just the economic conditions for the next ten years with any accuracy, but who know as well exactly how the big political games will evolve over that time and how consumer demand will develop.
Let us know when you meet somebody who knows :p;
Until then - this is an agricultural company supplying a product consumers can do very well without (as the last year nicely demonstrated). Their target market is shrinking (less and less Chinese babies and less well off Chinese parents) and subject to huge risks in the geo political game.
Their alternative market (the US - plan B) is still loosing money and nobody knows where it will go.
Established agricultural companies sell typcially for an average PE of 10 (considering the cyclical nature of their earnings), ATM's PE is still above 30.
2 dear 4 me - and in my view still plenty of further hype deflation potential in the SP.
Looks the worst is over. If everything goes with plan, next year EPS will be around 21C. If they can achieve medium-term ambition($2b sales, EBITDA margin at low-to-mid 20s), EPS will be 40C, SP will be over $10.
Looking to break into $6 range, but for the schizophrenic US markets, would've got there easily...
Agree DCF relies on forecasted earnings etc but it also uses a discount rate which is related to the opportunity cost of capital in which A2 is far better placed that the likes of F&P which is in debt and has a DCF currently slightly below it's current SP. DCF vs SP is another tool used by serious investors which imho is worth checking before investing.
Closed almost at day’s of 5.40 on ASX. Looking good in the short term.
long way to go to get back to the glory days.
pe of 33 - 34 expensive if the the road to glory again has a pothole
Class action participation being advertised on the radio yesterday
OK - so lets take it, they are now a hopefully stable agricultural producer with a PE above 30. Given that they moved more and more from marketing (easy and cheap scalable) to production (much more expensive to scale), what are they worth if they maintain their current earnings (plus or minus the phase of the cycle)?
I don't see them defaulting, but I don't see them grow a lot either ... unless there are some more hype peaks (and troughs) to come ... but hey, hype is like earthquakes ... there always are some more aftershocks to come. Just make sure to time them correctly :) ;
All eyes will be on acquisition targets, if they can spend their hundreds of millions on something that generates a good profit then very quickly the stock price has $10 potential in it this year.
BlackRock ( who seem to own half the world ), still have 46mil shares - somebody has faith.
Jeez ... did I disturb the nice and fluffy group think? So much owners bias - but fair enough, we all have been there at one stage or another :) ;
Just to add some balance - remind us, how much are they are down from the top ... and to add measure, just let us know what your statement proves anyway?
Well, as a non-holder and recidivist ATM basher, your input is tiresome and not helpful to anyone. Your abusive tone towards anyone who is pro-ATM is tedious and unnecessary.
What does my statement prove? You want proof? You have no idea when I bought back in to ATM so I have no interest in the SP fall, I'm only interested in how much it's up, 51% so far. I'm happy with the turnaround and a share of those gains.
Standing on the sidelines bashing the company achieves nothing useful, even misses an opportunity as being blinded by negative bias.
I like DB”s conservative and a measured approach. As a holder and someone who is still under water, I am certain he will bring this company back to its glory. The conference call provided more information on its buyback,possible M&A”s and the executive of the English label (Yohan) knows a lot on how the market has evolved on these two years.I personally love the O2O concept.
Happy times seems to come back but still a wee while to go…
Anyone have a link to the call?
Pretty disgusting personal attack. Tells us a lot about you.
Is this really your last resort?
This forum lives from a discussion about risks and opportunities for any company. People like you clearly try to suppress a discussion of the risks. How can this be useful for any investor?
Morningstar's Analyst Update 30 August 2022 - "A2 Milk's Strong Brand in China Drives Infant Formula Market Share Growth"
Watching for an hourly higher low to form today. Having an aggressive stab around this AU$5.45 support to see if I can catch it.
It was a long position. We saw hourly consolidation from yesterdays high, so I was looking for the hourly higher low to be set today to lead to continuation of the move. Entry criteria was 38% fib (bull flag), 5 & 15min RSI oversold and AU$5.45 support, knowing that an hourly higher low was very likely to form today. Nailed the short yesterday with the EQ that formed, but covered a bit early in the high AU$4.50's.
Currently up ~5% in 5 hours :t_up:
looks like results bounce all over as china locking heaps cities down now
Quote from the KFL Monthly Update:
a2 Milk (+25%) reported a strong result, with infant formulasales and group earnings well ahead of expectations in thesix months to June. The company has managed well duringanother challenging period, including managing a changein major distributor and shifting volumes towards onlineplatforms. It also out-executed rivals in getting product tomarket during the Shanghai lockdowns. a2's marketingis proving effective, with an uplift in share of voice and"top of mind" and "spontaneous" awareness metrics liftingstrongly, consistent with their growth in market share acrosskey channels. Management has done a good job of fixingproblems in the business and building more robust capabilityand processes to deliver on its growth strategy.
SAMR Registration extended: https://www.nzx.com/announcements/398607
As noted in the Company’s FY22 results announcement on 29 August 2022, a2MC’s current China label IMF product registration was due to expire in late September 2022. As anticipated, Synlait has received notification from SAMR that the current registration has been renewed. In effect, this will allow Synlait to manufacture a2MC’s current registered China label product until 21 February 2023 when transition to the new GB standard is required. Product manufactured up until this date is allowed to be sold in market after that date.
I got a email from Slater & Gordon yesterday about signing a document. But to read the email/document, I have to tick a box to agree to use electronic records & signatures. Has anyone else on here had the same email. The document expires on 13/10/22. I think it has something to do with fees if making a claim against a2m company.:confused:
ATM share price up 50% last few months ... from its recent low
That's pretty good
Probably be 100% up after Christmas
https://www.nutraingredients-asia.co...bid=2035914909
Key players in China’s infant formula industry have reported a drop in their gross profit margins in the first six months of this year, including the biggest local player Feihe, as well as Health and Happiness Group (H&H Group), and Ausnutria.
Apparently its not just the margins, but as well the volume.
Wondering what this means for ATM? I recon the believers will say that's great - more business for ATM.
Others might say - just an indication that the Chinese infant formula market is in decline.
I am sure we will find out at some stage ...
https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/12990...September+2022
MVM increasing production