Anyone Know if synlaits soon to be announced new big customer supplies to the U S A or has that ability ,that would be a Double rainbow
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Anyone Know if synlaits soon to be announced new big customer supplies to the U S A or has that ability ,that would be a Double rainbow
Lists Syn certifications/accreditations
https://www.synlait.com/process/#cust
Attachment 13819
The US supplies 98% of its IF domestic market. Matter of time before that corrects itself even if it takes 2 years.
Is it worth any IF company (let alone one with a high price point) to spend money and try to supply that market over a short term supply issue?
It is not like China where there was a collapse of confidence in domestic IF suppliers.
6% recovery today, Q is can they hit $5-00 today ?
Looks Kosher ! It would be interesting to know if they have added any new accreditation's in the past 18 months or so that would give us and Idea of the new direction synlait are taking
CFO resigns and David does a Jayne and brings one of his old work mates on board.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/392153
abbott factory be back on line soon , all back to normal
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/392277
Class action filed against ATM.
there goes there cash pile on lawyers fees for sure
and payouts?
$2.50 SP coming up as these class actions roll out ?
How are the Sales forward going to replace the Ca$h to tidy up the shambles
and cover the "No blame - We didn't do it - we deny all" pay outs ? ;)
On the back of the SP decline at best there might be a heap more ready to climb on board
to join the class actions :)
Could be a real messy and costly affair :)
Just did a bit of digging on “CHC Investment Fund III Pty Limited” who is funding the class action by Thorn. Lol. Go and have a look
https://companies-register.companiesoffice.govt.nz/
Nothing there because it's an Aussie Company:
More info at the bottom of their page here:
https://www.a2milkclassaction.com/faq
Questions answered by Court House Capital Pty Limited regarding funding of the legal action
Australian litigation funder, Court House Capital Pty Limited ...
Are they involved in a CBL Litigation financing ?
Google seems to bring up CBL
Quote:
FAQ's | CBL Class Action | New Zealandhttps://www.a2milkclassaction.com › faq
Who is funding the class action? The action is funded by CHC Investment Fund III Pty Limited, a subsidiary of Court House Capital Pty Limited (CHC).
This outfit
https://courthousecapital.com.au/
Out of Pocket Long suffering Investors in ATM - meet the Officers of your CHC
Litigation Funders:
https://courthousecapital.com.au/about-us/
Undoubtedly they get to score first large chop out of any coin shaken loose from ATM ;)
Nobody on ST is eligible for this class action because you could have heard the warning barks even if your live in the Chatham Islands lol
Exactly.... am not sure how genuine this action is. Is it about apportioning blame by those disgruntled. The writing was on the wall all of the time as the SP continued to trend down. Just had to read the tea leaves or easier still, check the charts. We got caught by the up ramping prior to an announcement when the sp was around 11. Very quickly realised this was a mutt and not worth holding. Sold out pre-announcement, were down a few pennies and glad of it.
Hindsight is always 20/20 and broken clocks are always right twice a day as well. There has been plenty of barking on other stocks over the years and it has been dead wrong (XRO would be one example when it dropped from $45 to $12 and it was a done company according to some on here) Dont expect any of the class actions to go anywhere and they are only there for opportunistic legal firms who smell the chance of some easy dosh.
Its all on the record mate... I can't help wondering where the price goes from here ? Even after the massacre to the share price it still trades on 29 times average broker estimated earnings for FY22 ! https://www.marketscreener.com/quote...22/financials/
29 times with their history and being so dependent on the market in China and with 3 class action lawsuits. WOW !
Maybe that $3 handle I talked about at one stage is not out of the question ? What do you think mate ?
Come on guys its no time to gloat and say we told you so. We all know Couta lost a lot on ATM but as he said he is grateful to still be alive. Lets show him some compassion as I am sure this brings up a lot of horrible memories for him. Stay strong Couta
Cannot see any upside myself in ATM :
A2 milk is getting commoditised with competitors undercutting its pricing. Karicare sells at $23.95 to $26.95 vs A2M’s $41.00 for eg.
It is facing multiple headwinds of declining birthrate & increased domestic competition in its biggest market, China.
Rising prices for milk powder and ingredients are placing cost pressure at a time when margins are already getting squeezed by competition.
US is bleeding money with no end in sight.
The 3 lawsuits are not only going to be costly but extremely distracting for the directors and management.
Only positive so far is that NZ$ has dropped but inflationary costs in NZ are offsetting that to a great extent.
Have I missed anything?
Only 2 things keeping the sp at current level :
1. Rear mirror view of high sp
2. Takeover potential which gets stoked every so often by the Oz media.
2 would have happened by now if it was going to happen imo.
Worth a punt at $3.00.
Prefer to keep my powder dry for the opportunities ahead.
Eying one which could be a double bagger by year end - but not just yet.
WOW that price point for Karicare is so much cheaper !! Chinese customers doing it tough are going to lap that up !Quote:
Have I missed anything ?
Not much more but also record high freight rates, lockdowns in China including at the ports, every increasing encouragement from the CCP to buy Chinese made, geopolitical tension, Chinese housing market in absolute freefall and some stupid processing facility in Southland that won't make money until 2027.
I think that's about it but I've probably forgotten a few things myself.
Was trading on the same metrics in the good old days when it was growing strongly. Why anyone would pay 29 times this years earnings with all those headwinds and class action lawsuits is beyond my comprehension. Go figure ?
Probably get a 3 handle at some stage I reckon.
Bell Porter (previously very bullish) downgraded A2M last week :
https://www.fool.com.au/2022/05/09/a...ker-downgrade/
Next results due in August could be a shocker - watch that cash position carefully.
That’s when the $3.00 could be a reality for the holders.
Plenty more downgrades to come I reckon. Looking at average growth forecasts for FY23 and FY24 they look far too optimistic to me.
Blackrock back again...
370859.pdf (nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com)
Looks like a bit of arbitrage while it lasted , not sure about making money out of babies in developing countries.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...am-11653331970
https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/153...53441708314626
Massive formula order for BUBs BUB.ASX according to Jo Biden
Bubs market cap A$297 mil with wide open register
Cheap entry into USA for ATM with bonus of proper marketing and distribution model in China
Just saying
What if anything would Fonterra gain? Any A2 supplier can change who they supply. I still don't see what ATM actually have that cannot be replicated. Given what Fonterra have been through in the last 10 years I just can't see a single supplier supporting an acquisition of a troubled company with a ton of litigation pending. At least you used the word carcass in context.
BUB.ASX up 28% in pre trading, will ATM get in on the action ?
https://cdn.fbsbx.com/v/t59.2708-21/...=6295F3B1&dl=1
News from Bubs, in case anyone else got a few of these in the bottom draw.
Could see another one of those big trend days, with a gap up open and then grind up as short stops get hit.
Up 9 % so far today!
I can understand why BUBS is rising-what a fantastic update! but cannot fathom why A2 rising...Nothing reported since Feb-except class actions updates.
I guess A2 does not even want to get into the US mud slush...
Perhaps no news is good news as market priced in a downgrade since the Shanghai lockdown. Could be that it’s not all that bad.
Don’t think they would like to pursue US opportunity as they may not get premium price in that market as they currently get in China.
And also it’s short term demand spike due to shortage in US.
Guy on radio -
Mike Joy: It takes up to 11,000 litres of water to dilute the pollution caused by the production of 1 litre of milk on Canterbury farms. To add insult to injury nearly all the milk with this huge water footprint is then dried with coal for export as powder for junk food & breastmilk replacement.
Enough to put you off investing in such a companies as A2 and Synlait .... even though the coal bit is going away
Wait till you find out how much water they use to make the milk to start with.
https://dsf.newscorpaustralia.com/th.../subscription/
A2 CEO David Bortolussi confirms the company has submitted an application to the US FDA last week
It is an interesting situation, as an ex dairy farmer and a keen fresh water fisherman I have gathered a lot of information and there are some damning reports out there that DON'T make it into the public arena. Instead of reducing nitrates in the Rakia they just doubled the level they considered acceptable to well above what is considered safe internationally. Big tobacco all over again. Resident trout population went from 200,000 to 2,000 while cow numbers went from 15000 to 1,500,000 over 20 years.
Attachment 13857
There you go, hopefully a catalyst for their struggling US fresh milk business
Maybe Prime minister will announce something this week with the president?
No market announcement that they going for accreditation.You would think they might of released it.
Would make sense for them to. But still many hurdles ahead and no guarantee's at all. Bubs is one step in front already. Bit of excitement jumped the SP high yesterday, will be telling to see if can maintain or with the next little bit of not so good news we see SP rapidly retrace and loose its 10% gain just as easily. That seems to be the way it is for ATM these days. If anything actually gained valid new contracts would be the time to look for any recovery in ATM, but at this stage still far too much speculation, guesswork, and hope. Not a good investment strategy.
All of Synlaits plants have US Food & Drug Administration Certifcate of Registration.
Do they have to get the product approved as well? Anyone know the procedure??
Further on the US Infant Milk applications:
US formula crisis: ANZ firms encouraged by Bubs’ success (nutraingredients-asia.com)
Abbott's plant back up and running so matter of months when US can supply its own needs again.
https://www.just-food.com/news/abbot...ctory-reopens/
As a parent, would you trust Abbott IF products again? I know my answer
Oh, people forget stuff over time, and life trundles on much as before.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-n...97S16720130829
I read on Aust's H C A2M posting that the FDA approved A2M selling into the U S until Nov 2022, but nothing on the S Her atm, !! ?
There's some random post linking to a Chinese website that's saying A2 has approval to ship IF to USA. It's rubbish, although A2 Milk have applied, approval has not yet been granted. Here's the FDA approved IF imports under the USA 'Enforcement Discretion' If A2 get approved, they'll go onto that list.
I was watching the T V last night & I see they are advertising the A 2 milk again ,must be to pay for the flatulence's tax
The water went out fast today -0.45 -9.04% -- there you have it all the Aussie shorters on holiday :)
Balance, looks like you and I are both "ex-holders who did well". I'm interested in the $2.50 buy comment because I had a similar idea and then thought maybe even such a very low price is still a risky price. I need to do more research - but it is possible that this company could go under?
It is sitting still on over $500m cash, has no debt and is profitable.
I do not see it going under but I do see its profitability continuing to come under pressure from markets dynamics (declining birthrate in its biggest markets, increased competition and higher costs).
Back of envelope calculations done by Beagle and I last year assessed ATM to be worth $2.75 and we were laughed at. It’s not that far off!
So $2.50 will be a good price and a good level for a takeover play.
Balance, thanks. I'll check those; pretty sure I had similar when I did it a while back. Book value will be hit at a certain point with cashflow & profit protecting it. BUT, there's something - negative - that I can't quite put my finger on about this company now and I'm not having much luck bringing it to the surface. Something is off.
Baby formula production halted at Abbott's Michigan plant due to flooding after severe storms
https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyl...n-plant-storms
Bubs Aus (BUB) has upgraded their earnings today on back of strong China demand, bodes well for the sector.
The unemployment rate for age 16-24 Chinese is 18.4% in April. No job no babies......
Chinese are not stupid...not like young kiwis...keep popping babies without future plans.
Chinese plan thier future, especially with family n kids...big decision...most of them want the best for thier kids.
Not like kiwis...just pop the babies...worry about it later...no money..no problems...stay home...claim government...claim everything..keep breeding
If this was a reality for all Kiwis then we would not be so desperate for immigrants to come here to supplement our declining birth rate ,plus its only the wealthy Chinese parents buying imported N Z Infant formula not the poor and as longy said they will still be able to afford to replenish their stocks
Lol...u all live in lala land... denial just like Jacinda. Come to Rotorua....come n see what kiwis call them..."homeless" aka lazy people
They must like the Rua .. did Coffey invite them all in en-masse for a feed and a long stay ? :)
Were the buses subsidised ? Were they all ATM signwritten ? ;)
Perhaps 'It never gets cold in Rotorua' appealed - go forth and multiply there .. ? :)
Never mind if there aren't any vacancies at the Bus Stops .. RDC will gladly build more to accomodate
- bring the cussies, whanau, kids, everyone .. pass on the news & invite to all .. anyone all for ATM :)
Black Rock can in as a holder in Mat buying at around $5 ish....
They must think there is something in it .......
Seems as though Singapore (Mead Johnson/Reckitt - Base powder to manufacture Enfamil Stage 1) and Ireland (Danone - Aptamil Stage 1) been added to the list over last few days. Hopefully A2 should appear there soon, all depends on how much excess stock available to offer I guess.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...V5KOF5GU3K4F4/
Danone NZ received approval to export IF to US.
Anyone interested in tracking the Enforcement Discretion to Manufacturers to Increase Infant Formula Supplies is updated on the day approvals are granted. Danone was granted five days ago on 29th June. Coincides nicely with Aptamil's retail roll out in US during July.
No bull .... Bulls / heifers (young females) found wandering the city, near the WINTECH perhaps looking to enrol
Hamilton City Council turns cattle wrangler | Stuff.co.nz
https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/12916...attle-wrangler
Below from BUB's latest quarterly update released today, bodes very well for A2.
China: up 523% pcp, contributing 64% of quarterly sales
- Corporate Daigou sales were up 1,201% pcp and CBEC sales were up 20% pcp
Balance, have you changed your target buy price on A2? Or same as you mentioned, maybe a month back?
As per AFR, A2 approval to sell IF in US could come as early as this week. Looks like market caught onto the news...
what a jump!.
Not much of a jump compared to the dip. Things could get interesting once people realize that people can't wait forever to have kids as the biological clock will continue to tick over in China. Could be alot of demand in the next 2/3 in US and China for premium milk power.
Why the T H ?