White collar crime is untouchable...
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White collar crime is untouchable...
For what it’s worth …from Morningstar
https://www.morningstar.com.au/stock...ningsta/217610
Is this thread aware that it is illegal to send ANY dairy product especially infant formula out of NZ UNLESS To send infant formula or milk powder overseas you must:
- register as an animal products exporter under the Animal Products Act 1999 or use the services of an exporter who is already registered
- meet the requirements outlined in the Export Requirements for Infant Formula Products and Formulated Supplementary Foods for Young Children
- meet any overseas market access requirements (OMARs) which apply, and
- secure certification if official assurance is required for the destination market.
Is it the same from Australia??
Will A2 have an A+ year in 2022 …jury still out
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/p...a-year-in-2022
Jeez hadn’t realised ATM had fallen so far. Todays market review says:
Infant formula exporter A2 Milk led the index lower as it fell 4.2% to an almost five-year low at $5.48.
Sp looks like it is heading towards $3.50 imo.
No good news out of China for ATM - another declining birth rate in 2021, domestic competition eating into imported market share, increased input costs as well as COVID related cost increases.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...VSIWFODGT6C3A/
Paywalled
Sapato's take over news out yesterday. Not sure this time is real or just big fundies play?? However, if there was a smoke must be a fire??
Farmers Weekly Article
https://farmersweekly.co.nz/s/fw-art...XJJHDOXVORINGQ
If you have a lot to sell at a reasonable price.. then talk to the Australian media and they will do the needful 😀#Saputo!
Encouraging for BUB's, especially the channel growth. But no mention of profit? Am I reading this correctly?
"Record quarterly gross revenue of $19.9m"
".. the Company advises it spent$14.4 million on product manufacturing and operating costs, $3.0 million on administration and corporatecosts, $1.9 million on staff costs, and $2.2 million on advertising and marketing." (= $21.5m)
= Loss $1.6m ???
Had to go look for the thread which is buried on Page 4.
Its been very loooong time between drinks, just broke through $6 mark. Forget the numbers, lower NZD FX should give decent tailwind for rest of 2022.
More Bubs News:
Bubs says China’s infant formula demand exceeding pre-pandemic levels (nutraingredients-asia.com)
China’s corporate daigou channel is witnessing high growth momentum and demand for infant formulas is exceeding pre-COVID-19 levels, according to Australian infant formula maker Bubs.
Half Year
1H22 Results and Interim Report - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange
The a2 Milk Company (“the Company”, “a2MC”) today announces that its 1H22 result was in line with the Company’s expectations, placing the Company in a strong position to execute its strategy and deliver revenue growth in FY22 in a challenging and volatile market.
In October 2021, the Company announced its refreshed growth strategy which has been adapted to the rapidly changing infant milk formula (“IMF”) market dynamics in China. The Company also outlined its medium-term indicative sales and EBITDA margin ambition. With its growth strategy review completed, the Company has moved into the execution phase focused on implementing its strategic priorities and related initiatives, which is in its early stages and progressing well.
The actions taken by the Company in 4Q21 and 1Q22 to address excess inventory are also proving effective with channel inventory levels reducing to targeted levels, product freshness improving and market pricing increasing across English label and China label IMF, enabling healthier channel economics for participants in the a2MC business system.
Key points1
• Market conditions continued to be challenging with the China IMF market declining by 3.3% in value during 1H22 due mainly to the cumulative impact of a lower birth rate, while the Australian and US (premium) liquid milk markets were in growth. COVID-19 and other external factors continued to impact the Company’s supply chain
• Interim results in line with the Company’s expectations and expecting to deliver revenue growth in FY22• Revenue was marginally lower than 1H21 in line with guidance, down 2.5% to $660.5 million on the prior corresponding period (“pcp”), up 24.8% on 2H21- As disclosed in the Company’s announcement on 26 August 2021, China label IMF sales were constrained by a2MCin 1Q22 to rebalance distributor inventory levels with sales down 11.4% for 1H22 vs pcp. However, consumerofftake growth in store and online was up double-digits with higher market share- English and other label IMF sales were down 9.8% in 1H22 vs pcp with lower market share, but with an improvement in sales trajectory during the half particularly in the ANZ reseller channel- ANZ liquid milk sales were up with higher market share, while USA liquid milk sales were down
• Earnings before interest tax depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA2) was down 45.3% on pcp to $97.6 million• EBITDA to sales margin of 14.8% in 1H22 compared to 26.4% in 1H21; EBITDA to sales margin excluding MVM of 17.3%• Net profit after tax (“NPAT”) including the non-controlling interest was down 53.3% to $56.1 million on pcp
• Closing net cash was $667.2 million, now incorporating $80.0 million of MVM debt, with high operational cash conversion during 1H22• Mataura Valley Milk (“MVM”) acquisition and strategic partnership with China Animal Husbandry Group (“CAHG")completed in July 2021 and fully consolidated into the results. Commenced planning for a laboratory and blending and canning capability at MVM and accelerated actions to insource certain a2MC product
• Brand health metrics improved following a significant marketing campaign in 2Q22 with total brand / China label metrics improving and English label metrics remaining relatively flat. Brand investment increased in 1H22 by 37.3% vs pcp to $92.5 million in line with the Company’s growth strategy
Growth strategy refresh to respond to the rapidly changing China IMF market dynamics completed and implementation underway with good early progress across key initiatives
• The Company’s outlook for 2H22 revenue has improved. It is still expected to be significantly higher than 2H21, and with growth now expected on 1H22 and for FY22 ahead of initial expectations due mainly to growth in China label and English label IMF. However, this revenue improvement is not expected to translate into higher earnings as the Companysignificantly increases brand and other reinvestment consistent with its growth strategy (the Outlook section below has further detail including key industry and business risks
Not a bad report...I guess.
MVM is improving but US is a drag...
They fared better than expected, seems as though DB has slowly but surely steadied the ship and steering in right direction. Long way to go but green shoots starting to appear.
Short squeeze on over at ASX...
New CEO has executed very well!
Retirement of NED / appointment of new NED - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange
Well she lasted a long time.....
A better than expected result. Plenty of cash still. And the market likes it…
Wow, 8 cents per share in earnings down 50 % from pcp...might make 17 cps this year. Gargantuan increases in marketing costs and administration costs, see page 7.
Forward PE is 37...priced higher than some of our leading companies with a multi year track record of strong growth.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...542/364914.pdf
DYOR, I am not touching it.
Yes winner . I brought a pile a while ago so very pleased today. Would be wrapped with $15 but think around $7 to $8 more likely unless a takeover.
If they have stabilised the ship what are they going to do with all that cash.
Bang on, market is forward looking. Listening to analyst conf call, can’t help but feel DB is extremely capable CEO and doesn’t hype things up. Analysts were very complementary of his efforts in turning the ship around and you know what happens to sp when you’ve earned their confidence. Even the famous Sam Teeger of Citi is quite pleased with result.
Spend it on another loss making milk processing plant somewhere else in the South Island ;)
Ship might be starting to be stabilized but appears to be capable of only earning half as much. Throw tens of millions extra per half year on marketing and tens of million more on administration and management resource...what could possibly go wrong ;)
Not really, they have the same problem. One product in one market makes the money. The USA is an absolute failure. The only positive with it is once they close it earnings will rise but it will signal the failure of strategy to be a broad and multi-market international player.
Also it is possible the diagou shopping network breaches the export license system in Australia and here.
I'm with you that the problems have not gone away. They spent nearly a whopping $100m on marketing in the half year to try and stabilize the ship and stop it taking on more water. Vast amounts more will be required and all it takes at any stage is the stoke of a pen by the CCP and they go back to being the Titanic taking on more water again. Too much dependency on one market. I don't like it because I can't get comfortable with the metrics or the risks involved.
Good result for bubs.......
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...383/366146.pdf
ATM out of S&P/NZX10 & NZX MidCap.
The indignity of it all.
Looking at this piece of news in Oct 21 and then, the news around its recent results :
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...UIAJRBCV3C7MA/
ATM must be one of the most manipulated stocks in the market - a few institutions playing the reef fishes out there like whales herding shrimps.
Citi are highlighting the regulatory risk facing A2 Milk around re-registration of IF products by early next year
A clue of some stability in A2??
from today's SML's FY22 guidance statement...
FY22 guidance statement:
Synlait still expects its Net Profit After Tax result to return to robust profitability in FY22 based on:
• Tighter management of its Ingredient business;
• Improved infant base powder volumes;
• A growing contribution from its Lactoferrin and Consumer Foods businesses; and
• Retained cost savings.
Does anyone involved have any recent updates in the class action law suits?
Some encouraging news this week
1 - Synlait seeing improved infant base powder volumes today
2 - A2 win another court case https://www.ashurst.com/en/news-and-...2-trade-marks/
3 - Ausnutria report out this week seeing category in $$$ terms up 2.2% in 2021 and a gradual lift in birth rate over the next 2-3 years.
Attachment 13666Attachment 13667
Any Court action will be thrown out. Angry shareholders need to move on
There are two class actions, both have already been to the relevant court. Couta is referring to the Slater Gordon suit. The other is Shine Lawyers. The next step is to resolve the competing claims, on May 5 the court hears evidence on how the matter will proceed.
As a holder ( of far too many) I can't be bothered applying. Water under the bridge.
looks like a hammertime moment coming soon. On the verge in aus of breaking below $5 and new all time lows
If China makes some sort of move on Taiwan, (it doesnt havre to be a full millitary strike, there are more than one way to skin a cat.) resultant sanctions may mean ATM biggest market will fold. The world is getting smaller.Rogue country trade must be regarded as temporary at best.
the selling is continuing sine asx opened
Muck me $5-00 !!!
Still a long way to erode further by the look of daunting hurdles. Nerves of steel for those who haven't sold out already. Lot of holders either not wanting to realise losses or holding out for some shear hope. Maybe the targets of $3.50 - $4 are still a genuine reality over 2022. Another sell off in the works
the CCP has a ground hog day strategy on the virus. obviously population not jabbed enough and there vaccine not effective enough.
population unrest on the rise.
not an investible country..
China is sneezing the world will soon cough! Consumption down and so is all macro economic indicators. Another red flag for exporters … especially for China dependent ATM
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/...nd-2022-04-18/
Another sell off???.. Technically there is a good chance as the shareprice has nudged just below its primary support...Mind you it could be said that ATM is dragging along the bottom for 11 months now and there has been no signicant rally for 5 months..an unusual price (chart) behaviour..The longer it stays around the bottom the bigger the chance of a fall rather than a rise.
Fundamentally ATM seems sound in the sense that it is sitting on a cash Mountain if today's NZ Herald article is correct the cash pile is about 90cents/share..that's pretty awesome for a very unloved stock..However it may show that good management is lacking.. Is the cash pile big enough to attract sharks?
Disc: own a few (dabble) currently -15%..
Possible takeover of Danone by Lactails...
Danone's latest report had a 1.8% decline on their dairy segment(UK-RUS war reason).Could be a positive one for ATM as Danone is a bigger player in China.ATM may have increased its market share(especially in UHT-its new product and milk powder segments)
Food staple stocks are all going up of late in Europe.With inflationary pressures, and the war situation not going out soon,ATM ---if could hold on to what they projected in FEB, can see an uplift.
With a staggering pile of cash--of course
https://www.just-food.com/news/lacta...danone-assets/
Disc-Holding(still....).
Sub $5-00 atm with ongoing uncertainty in China, lockdown affecting their economy big time.
Today's fortunes so far dont look much better with further retreat
The last time the stock was this low was somewhere in 2017. Jeez that’s about 5 years ago.
wonder if a2 had similar issues
Fonterra says China dairy imports dropped 29 per cent in March
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...2JJOVQXRTDWIY/
Post removed
a2 announced via LinkedIn the winners of their inaugural "a2 Legends Awards" recognising team members who have made contributions to the a2 strategy whilst demonstrating the a2 values. The winners were the China Supply Chain Team - Doris Tao, Joyce Xu, Catherine Wu and Tim Zhou.
Hopefully that bodes well for a2 supply into China during the past and current challenges with Covid shutdowns in China and international supply chain constraints.
Can't really be blamed on Shanghai's lockdown, and any downturn in foodservice etc - as I think the lockdown started late March.
Would have thought Fonterra would have faired better than many other dairy exporters diue to their ownership/stake in Kotahi - but always going to suffer simply because of their size.
Citi behind trade that caused brief European share plunge
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/02/citi...re-plunge.html
The master manipulators are at play all over the world...ATM had two recommendations from these Muppets(one buy one sell rating in a span of six months)...
a few retailers in aus indicating issues with freight and lockdowns going forward. i took it they were talking about china. they didnt outright mention them by name
With the 8% drop in the milk price last night its not surprising that ATM is sinking now ! grrrrr !
I have been to China for couple of month and back to NZ at end of April. What I saw is China growth story may be coming to the end.
- In a tie-1 city (over 10million population) which is not suffering Covid druing my visit, 1/3 of shops down main streets are empty or closed. No one wants to lease the retail shops. Two major malls are in liquidity.
- In malls, almost all restuarants are running takeaway delivery business by Mei Tuan.
- I cannot see people in big supermarket (around 10-20 per visit). The size of the supermarket is bigger than any Pak'n save in NZ.
- Property market in Tie-1 cities dropped by 10%, some young people cannot pay the rent due to job cuts. Plan back to Tie-3 city for living.
- In some tie -2 cities, the apartment market collapses by over 70% in value, the villa in the fringe of cities dropped over 50% in value.
- Sharemarket dropped by over 25%, all investors and financial institutions are losing confidence.
- The only sectors run well are new energy automobile, IT and healthcare & medication industry.
- young couples delay to have babies, due to financial stress, living environment change or Covid etc.
- The Chinese government is struggling with 5.5% annual GDP growth target. Lots of investment capital flows into Vietnam.
A2 is heading to $2.75 - $3.5, if they have no any marketing strategy change.
As opposed to NZ where a nation has been turned into sheep by Ardern & her scare tactics?
Interesting to note that only China & North Korea are the only 2 nations left still to reopen their borders after NZ reopened partially 2 days ago. Great minds think alike but fools seldom differ.
Shareholders signed up for the class action as per Business desk's reporting today-1900
As per Last years annual report Total shareholders are 107,172
Looks like not many are keen...
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/image/...AAAElFTkSuQmCC
A shareholder during the disputed period does not have to 'sign up' to be part of the class action(s) at this stage, all shareholders are automatically eligible up until the action proceeds, then they will need to join if they want to. The current court hearings are about agreeing the approach as the two litigants have substantial similar grievances.
Nah..if u don't register before u are not entitled anymore. I remembered last time with Vocus. I could not bother to register n I did not get in. Because they will ask u to provide evidence ..fill in form etc
$4-50 here we come !!
The total lockdown in Shanghai and other parts of China since March is going to accelerate the trend of Chinese parents embracing domestic IF brands and suppliers.
I see in todays White House briefing that there is a shortage of baby formula, could there be any flow on to ATM ?
I would have thought that there would be plenty of A2 formula in the bonded warehouses in China to get through the lock downs, if so how long will that last ?
Four Dollar 43/100 close .. any further thoughts on ATM ? ;)
FDA approval takes several years with no guarantee of success. Claims will need to be scientifically substantiated and reproducible. And any USA distribution agreement will require UNLIMITED liability. Better companies have tried and abandoned
Does the US in this unfortunate and precarious situation, fast track their import priorities or just follow their usual red tape methodology??
We should also bear in mind that A2's biggest markets, China is notorious with this red-tape(SAMR) and if A2 are able to crack and sail into their market then entering US is a no-brainer.DB should be working overtime!!
Isn't Munchkin manufactured by Synlait?? If so, the facility will be approved - just any claims etc they want to make (which might be something similar to what they make on fresh milk sales in the US??)
Munchkin Grass Fed Infant Formula Powder- Milk Based with Iron. From happy, grass fed New Zealand cows. - Walmart.com