I remain optimistic.
Not even the New Zealand bureaucracy and political establishment can spin the current farce out forever.
Surely?
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Cnu up 20% over the last three months.
Anyway I've developed this crazy notion that I'm going to get paid a monster dividend next month and I've already started thinking about what I'm going to spend it on. Can only end in tears.
Two years without a dividend. Could it be as much as 40 cents per share or is just crazy talk?
probably just a dream
However buying pressure makes me suspect that determinations have been made and those in the know are buying.
CNU board certainly wont be counting their chickens before they are hatched.
So size of dividend-if any wont have been talked about at board level
Just a (probably silly) guess based on what I've lost. The way I see it I've missed out on 25.5 cents per share in the first year dividend payments were stopped and maybe around 16 cents per share (big guess) as consequence of the price adjustments in the second year.
I want my 41 cents back. Down $67,000 on this stock at one stage (57,000 x $2.48 buy price, stock went down to 1.30 I think) and while we're moving into sunny uplands now, I want a monster dividend in December :) I "deserve" it :)
Just read this really interesting article today in the Dom Post from Tom Pullar-Strecker (and no, Fish, I didn't dream that I read it;) Can't see it online otherwise I'd post it. He notes that the UFB project has been an "undoubted success" and that "...telecommunications companies admit they probably couldn't cope with any further increase in demand for UFB right now". That's amazing when you think about it: how many companies are in this position on the NZX? Only Chorus.
Here's something interesting. Pullar-Strecker says that "it appears a forgone conclusion that Chorus will pick up the job of building UFB2 [ie the 5% extension to the network agreed by the Govt last year] with other UFB network builders perhaps chipping in in their own territories. No other companies have publicly expressed interest in this work".
Fibre comes online in my street in February next year. I'm going for a 100/20 plan which just happens to be the same price as my current VDSL copper plan, yet my UFB will be three times faster at least and provide a much better service.
Far be it from the Hog to disagree in general, but note that when the bottleneck between you and the internet is improved or, for the most part, eliminated, you gain new insights into a whole new world of internet bottlenecks that you never knew existed "...telecommunications companies admit they probably couldn't cope with any further increase in demand for UFB right now").
The article referred to above:
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opin...oadband-policy
I see D-Day is 15/12/15.
http://www.comcom.govt.nz/regulated-...ing-principle/
If it goes the way I want, I'm getting this and a big bucket of KFC. It will be quite an afternoon I can tell you.
http://www.thewarehouse.co.nz/red/ca...05?SKU=1957792
Just to make sure we don't oversee this important event: CNU trend chart just passed a Golden Cross ... an infallible indicator that it would have been a great idea to buy the share in September 2015 for $2.50.
I guess this is the problem with lagging indicators - they are always right, but not always useful;);
Question is - where is the trend going from here? Difficult to say if the fate of the company is basically controlled by politicians. Personally I see the current risk premium as a bit low (i.e. share already too dear for me; while the average PE is around 9 (great) - the forward PE is just 13.8 (hmm). Obviously if ComCom plays it nice and the digital strategy works - I might be wrong and share holders will make lots of money.
Discl: not holding;
These are my thoughts on CNU:
Business Environment: It is a monopoly in an industry with higher than average technological change where the cost of investment is high. The potential for technological obsolescence, means a high rate of return on investment is expected by investors to compensate for business and technological risk.
Regulatory Environment: Currently unstable. An extra loading on return therefore required by investors.
Political Environment: With MMP and the likelihood of minority/slim majority governments, squeezing a monopoly, such as Chorus, may be seen as a populist (pork-barrel politics) move to curry favour with a broad range of electors. Perhaps this adds an extra loading on investment return to compensate for political risk.
Disc: Hold CNU