I was thinking more like being forced to drink 2 liters of cod liver oil lol
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The rumour was the strategy update was going to be a boomer and share price went up about 20%
The fact was the update wasn’t up to much and gave most punters no comfort …..and share price falls 12%
Seems to happen a lot
The strategy review has been not met the expectations. Good thing is the current management team starts to do a serious job. However, ATM has turned itself into a matured company, not a high growth company anymore. The forward PE and PB is too high and SP will be heading south again. $2-$3 price range is reasonable for ATM.
Mataura Valley financials now included in A2
MVM going to be a drag on the A2 bottom line for quite a while ….as they say ”Plans are being developed for the plant to reach profitability during FY26 or earlier”
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...IWW3NZMPMFQU4/ Paywalled.
Sums up the whole much lower growth and margins reality that now confronts shareholders.
There is no question whatsoever in my mind that this situation is a dramatic transition to a much lower growth and margin reality and is not yet reflected in the forward metrics even after today's correction. 17 seems a fair multiple for the risk implicit with the changed strategy and on 17 cps forecast that's fair value $2.89
Someone please PM me to wake me up when it goes under $3.
May try to sell inventory which is less than 6 month through discount platform, like KTT and PDD? with 30%-40% discount rate? Still making money or break even. This is better than just directly write-off. It is an ongoing issue, have to find a way out.
ATM needs a case study on Feihe, how this domestic company markets itself so successfully in recent years. Throw money on marketing is ATM future strategy, but in what more efficient ways, in what specific areas or sectors.
The future challenge is very hard for ATM, pressure on sales price, higher shipping cost, higher interest rate, higher labour cost, higher inflation rate on raw materials, increasing marketing expense and staff wage expense (staff head is increasing over 5 years). Pretty confident this company is matured.