AGRIA and 30 days to christmas
Quote:
Originally Posted by
SparkyTheClown
So I might be able to by more PGW cheaper than today? That sounds ok to me.
snoopy is right that Agria is in a difficult position, but I don't see this affecting the underlying business. I'm not buying Agria shares, I'm buying PGW shares which in my business were oversold relative to their business prospects, and while they are by no means ready to explode out into 2013 like a Rocket, I see a company that has licked it's wounds, has a plan to repay debt and focus on strengths, and may catch a tailwind or two from improving markets and climate.
At the pricing I've been buying, I believe I'm derisked should Agrias holding be placed to institutions and the market. I might be wrong and maybe such a placement could be at 28c, or conceivably lower, but that's ok. I'll buy more should I be so lucky. Such a placement at a low price would be VERY temporary. I won't be buying any if above today's pricing, now 37c. It is conceivable that PGWs price will rise over the next few weeks and months, and so any Agria placement will be at today's prices or higher.
Snoopys position is interesting as he has lost half his investment but still believes that PGW represents NZs best investment in listed agriculture. I think he's right. Not because it is the best agriculture company out there, but because I think is too damn cheap.
I will be pleased to cheer Snoopys PGW recovery along with my own rise in this holding...
Hi together,
it doesn't fit together. You can not rate PGW as a high potential stock and give AGRIA a sell rating.
AGRIA is holding the majority in PGW and therefore the remaining PGW shares are only entitled to
receive a dividend ! AGRIA, as the 50.22% controlling owner of PGW were valued with only 45 Mio USD and
PGWs Market Cap is 231 USD. That alone means that AGRIAs shares have 200% upside potential .
I can not believe how you come to the conclusion that AGRIA has a problems to get new loans.
You should look at balance and Income Statement and compare it with the past:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=GRO+...atement&annual
look and the Assets:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bs?s=GRO+...e+Sheet&annual
and the cash Flow:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cf?s=GRO+Cash+Flow&annual
The chance for Agria going bankrupt is only 1%, look what the experts are saying:
.
http://www.macroaxis.com/invest/rati..._Of_Bankruptcy
Another Argument if you think about the possibility for Agria going bankrupt. Is this:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nati...-1226516223693
China is shopping around for raw materials and Know How. Chinese Government will not allow Agria going bankrupt.
Despite all the facts i have learned now about the chinese seed market and AGRIAs
potency, you should always think about chinese culture. If Alain Lai has not the power
to bring Agria to success, he will lose his face. And loosing his face is an issue in China.
In my Opinion he is a man of honour and i believe his statement:
>>He said twice there was “zero chance” of Agria being put into receivership.<<
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/pgw-sha...lder-dw-131185
PGW shareprice rose 15% the last days and AGRIAs shareprice declines 20% this is not
logical . The last sale is always a small amount on the ask site. This is manipulation from short sellers.
I am sure they will burn their fingers during the next days.
Altman calls time on Agria
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Snoopy
So putting everything together:
Z= 1.2A+1.4B+3.3C+0.6D+1.0E
= 1.2(0.287)+1.4(-0.035)+3.3(0.043)+ 0.6(0.694)+1.0(1.363)= 2.22
Not exactly what you got, but close enough within the bounds of rounding error. Dialed up your on-line calculator but it was not available to me.
Buoyed my new found ability as a 'Z' expert :-P, I have decided to run the same test on Agria. Dollar figures this time are in USD, as per the Agria 20F filing for FY2012
So WC= (Inventory+Biological assets)+(Trade Payables-Trade Receivables)= ($207.5m)+($152.8m-$133m)= $227.3m
So A = $227.3m/$821.6m = 0.277
-------
B= (Retained earnings/Total Assets)
-$3.095/$821.629m= -0.004
--------
C= (EBIT/ Total Assets) = $22.431m/$821.629m = 0.027
--------
D= (Market value of Equity/Total Liabilities) = (0.78 x 55.36m)/$415.033m = 0.104
--------
E= (Sales/Total Assets) = $1,089.1m/$821.629m = 1.325
--------
Z= 1.2A+1.4B+3.3C+0.6D+1.0E
= 1.2(0.277)+1.4(-0.004)+3.3(0.027)+ 0.6(0.104)+1.0(1.325)= 1.80
--------
1.8 is the critical figure that Altman lists as the point of "Probability of Financial embarrassment is very high." The fat lady has the final whistle in her mouth, as far as the Altman Z factor is concerned.
SNOOPY
Alan Lai clears out his PGW directors!
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Snoopy
I hope that now Alan Lai has achieved this he will get back to figuring out how to pay his bills.
A rather rapid response from Alan and he has put three new faces on the PGW board:
Newly appointed to the board are Wai Yip (Patrick) Tsang, Kean Seng U and Lim Siang (Ronald) Seah. Retiring as directors are Dr Zhi-Kang Li and Wah Kwong (WK) Tsang who will each remain involved with Dr Li continuing as an expert member of the (new) AgriTech Committee and WK as an alternate director.
Brief biographies for the new directors follow:
------
Wai Yip (Patrick) Tsang
Mr Tsang began his career with PricewaterhouseCoopers as an auditor. He has held finance roles in a number of companies listed on the main board of Hong Kong Stock Exchange, including China Resources Enterprises Limited and Tianjin Development Holdings Limited. Mr Tsang is currently a director of China Pipe Group Limited, a Hong Kong listed company. He has over 20 years of experience in auditing, accounting, investor relations and corporate finance including initial public offerings, restructuring and merger and acquisition transactions. Mr Tsang holds a Bachelor's degree in accountancy (Honours) and is a fellow member of the Hong Kong Institute of Certified Public Accountants, a fellow member of Association of Chartered Certified Accountants and a member of the
Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales.
Lim Siang (Ronald) Seah
Mr Seah is a Singaporean with a background in banking and funds management and spent much of his career working for the AIG group of companies in Singapore, serving as Chairman of AIG Global Investment Corporation (Singapore) Ltd until 2005. He is currently director of a number of listed Singaporean companies including Yanlord Land Group Ltd, for which he is also chairman of the Audit Committee, Global Investments Ltd, Telechoice International Ltd and Invenio Holdings Pte Ltd (a subsidiary of Olam International).
Mr Seah holds a Bachelor's degree in Economics (Honours) from the University of Singapore.
Kean Seng U
Mr U is Head of Corporate and Legal Affairs for Agria Corporation, a role he has held since December 2008. He has extensive experience in advising multi-national corporations and sovereign entities on direct investments in The People's Republic of China as well as offshore mergers and acquisitions of foreign assets by entities of The People's Republic of China. Mr U previously practiced as a partner at Singaporean law firm, Shooklin & Bok LLP, focused on East Asia, and he led a corporate finance team in Allen & Overy Shooklin & Bok, JLV, an international law venture partnership with London based Allen & Overy LLP.
Mr U sits as independent and non-executive director of several public listed corporations. He received a Bachelor of Laws (Honours) degree from Monash University (Australia). He is a Barrister and Solicitor, Supreme Court of Victoria, Australia; Advocate & Solicitor, Supreme Court of Singapore and Solicitor of England and Wales. In addition to his extensive legal knowledge, Mr U is also a qualified economist, having completed his degree majoring in Economics and Accounting, B Ec at Monash University, Australia.
------
Those bold highlights of the relevant experience are mine. It looks like the splitting of PGW into 'Agriservices' and 'Agritech' with the subsequent transferral of 'Agritech' to becoming domiciled in Singapore and working the Chinese market from there is on!
SNOOPY
More News about PGW and Agria
Hopefully we are on Christmas above 1$ and PGW breaks 0,40 Wall
BEIJING--(Marketwire - Dec 18, 2012) - Agria Corporation ( NYSE : GRO ) (the "Company" or "Agria") and its New Zealand listed subsidiary PGG Wrightson ( NZSE : PGW ) ("PGW") today announced that the operating entities of Agria and PGW have signed two memoranda of understanding with PRC agricultural partners in Guangdong Province and Shandong Province.
According to the memorandum of understanding with Guangdong Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Crops Research Institute, and Guangdong Golden Crops Agricultural Sciences & Technology Co., Ltd, the parties will develop a high-profile agriculture showcase under the name of "The China Guangdong - New Zealand Agriculture Showcase" in Guangdong Province. The parties will cooperate in the following areas:
- To establish the China Guangdong - New Zealand Agriculture Showcase for the showcasing and promotion of innovative products, advanced agricultural technology, advanced plant species, and advanced agricultural production models;
- To cooperate in the exchange and training of agriculture specialists;
- To strengthen the cooperation in the development, production and promotion of new plant species including edible corn, forage and vegetable seeds;
- To leverage and apply New Zealand's geographical and climate advantages by establishing a base in New Zealand for seed production of Guangdong Province; and
- To jointly set up a working committee to coordinate the establishment of the project, with representatives from all parties, and to communicate and cooperate in other areas.
According to the memorandum of understanding with Shandong Province Seeds Group Co., Ltd., the parties will cooperate in the following areas:
- To strengthen the cooperation in the scientific research, production and promotion of plant species including corn, forage and vegetable seeds; and
- To jointly set up a working committee to coordinate the establishment of the project, with representatives from all parties, and to communicate and cooperate in other areas.
Alan Lai, Agria's Chairman of the Board, commented, "The cooperation between Agria and PGW has enhanced the complementary strengths of both sides and boosted the future plan for joint development of Asia and China markets. Agricultural and seeds economy has been highly recognized by the Chinese government and investors. With nearly 40 ranches each with over ten-thousand cattle under construction, China is marching into large-scale breeding in this area. Development and promotion of grass seeds is currently one of the most needed agricultural technologies in China. With world-leading seeds technologies and ranch management experience, we can bring valuable experience for the construction of large-scale ranches in China. I believe, our cooperation with PGW will generate significant investment return for shareholders in the near future."
The two projects will benefit from Agria and PGW's extensive experience and resource in advanced technical development planning and their management philosophy and skills, combined with the advanced new agricultural production technology provided by the Guangdong and Shandong agricultural partners. The two projects will serve as platforms for Agria and PGW to promote agricultural technology and innovative services for PRC clients and show Agria and PGW's dedication to international cooperation.
About Agria Corporation
Agria Corporation ( NYSE : GRO ) is an agricultural company with operations in China and internationally. Agria operates three principal business lines: China seeds, international seeds and agriservices. In China, Agria engages in research and development, production and sale of seed products, including field corn seeds, edible corn seeds and vegetable seeds. Agria owns through Agria Asia a 50.22% equity interest in PGG Wrightson, New Zealand's largest agricultural services company. For more information about PGG Wrightson, please visit www.pggwrightson.co.nz. For more information about Agria Corporation, please visit www.agriacorp.com.
Alain Lai will never sell down PGW
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Balance
Highly objectionable, Snoopy, to accuse yours sincerely here of blatant ramping to dump my shares.
FYI, I bought more at 38 cents and see plenty more upside to PGW.
I hope you are not writing from your own perspective of what you do!
So what if Alan Lai is selling down?
Fairfax had been selling down its Trade Me shares and there is no shortage of takers.
Reason? Because distressed sellers always present buying opportunities. Why do you think George Kerr's sell down of PGW at 28 cents and HNZ at 52 cents were so eagerly taken up?
If AGRIA falls below 50% it can not consolidate PGWs revenue and earning. Revenue would fall from 1 Billion to 30 Million,
and they have to report a huge loss because the shareprice of PGW is far below 60 cent.
The loan problem is solved and therefore the last remaining argument against AGRIA is solved.