Great strategy. Smart move. Well done.
Printable View
Seems like next report will be good too simply based on increased customers and hopeful the current tailwind has spill over effects into Q1 fy21
Well, their earnings (10 cts per share) matched the forecasts. Revenue though is slightly lagging. Not an outrageous result, but ok-ish.
Still - it is good to see their first real profit, given that last years was only based on creative accounting.
However - with a PE above 50 is the market pricing an enormous amount of growth into the share price and at the same time assuming that PPH will stay for many years (actually decades) to come in the hit lists of the faith industry if they want to pay back their market cap.
And I guess - they are in the right industry. Some churches run profitable for tens, hundreds or even thousand years, but then - we don't know yet, how long they will stay faithful to their latest digital payments service provider. This relationship might not be as long living as the eternal love of the churches to the good old mammon in form of coins, real estate and precious artifacts.
Unfortunately - my faith in that regard is lacking ... but good luck to all holders ;):
A nice ride up on this for some with PPH .. was looking around the SP Dip
Imagine that you're in the congregation and one day the Pastor (or whoever) stands up at the of the service and says " From next week, we want everyone to give via a different app, that's 25 basis points cheaper than Pushpay" (which you've been using). The whole congregation has to download the new app, find their church and enter their banking details. All the events and contact lists would have have to be re-created. Some events will have been started in Pushpay and others would start in the new app. If you deleted Pushpay, you'd be out of touch with events only in there. All the church's giving and financial records would need to be-done. All the donation and tax receipts would need to be consolidated.
Yes- this could happen, but I believe it's unlikely and would require someone else being a lot better, or cheaper, or both.
Black Peter, I understand your concerns re PPH but am unsure why you posted my prior post re Dream Catcher 'free holding' his/her remaining shares.
Surely DreamCatcher has now substantially mitigated any future risks with PPH by withdrawing the funds originally used to purchase his/her shares and can now reinvest this capital elsewhere while sitting back and enjoying PPH's future growth with a de-risked 'freehold' portion.
FWIW this strategy is one I have used previously and find it very effective. Over 80% of my current portfolio is 'freeheld' and in these testing Covid times it allows me to sleep very well at night with cash to fund greater diversification while letting my de-risked free-held gains run.
As always. DYOR and take responsibility for your own decisions.
All cool. :cool: Thanks BP.
Damm....sold too early....but gained profit .....well...happy for u guys!
Too late by about a year Longhaul..PPH is maturing/has matured out of it's SaaS status..That's the reason why there was a CEO change..Chris Heaslip is a great SaaS man and manages as per textbook..that is his strength..As PPH matured Heaslip announced he was going to pass the reins to Bruce Gordon whose strength is managing established "going forward" companies especially in acquisitions to sustain growth..He also has strength in the development of digital electronic banking/payment area as he did with Paymark Warehouse ASB BNZ etc..
So..with PPH metamorphosis from SaaS company to the more established (standard) type company the way the company is valued goes from revenue multiples to the more "conventional" accounting measures...
Last year (May 2019) when Bruce Gordon took the reins there was a fear that with the changing of valuation methods PPH's share price would drop, however in 2019 the shine came off Global tech companies and investors lost their appetite for SaaS companies therefore lowering the multiples..Although PPH was still technally a high growth company Investors never believed PPH's timeframe goals (all goals were reached) and there were (still are) many skeptical observers out there in the market, hence this SaaS risk legacy helped suppressed the share price during 2019. This created a pressure cooker situation..
As with most things in life it takes a little time for the market to realise a change..Investors like me who have followed PPH for the last few years have noticed this seemingly invisible valuation method change + increased growth/ stagnated share price and invested/accumulated accordingly..The Motley Fool is a follower and it was very nice of them to offer their observations to their readers for free...Today the result is out and PPH is revalued accordingly..
A fine example that great management creates a great company..
Thanks for the detailed response Hoop.
I've followed your posts on PPH over the last few years and always valued your insight. I've also been holding on and off and it has taken a fair bit of patience to get to this point. Have had wins and losses along the way but have always been a believer in their story and execution.
We still see some tech/SaaS companies trading on massive multiples, particularly in the US so wondering how and why they get to those valuations.
I still feel PPH has a lot of growth ahead and plenty of upside on the share price, just trying to figure out what it will take to get to the next level up.
Have you had any suspicions that they might be acquired by another larger competitor or even someone outside the faith industry? Seems unlikely at this stage they will push into not-for-profit as they have hinted in the past. Maybe they will look to other countries for quick growth now that their platform has matured.
Will be interesting to watch.
It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool, than to open your mouth and remove all doubt.
Craigs updated TP $7.70 :eek2:
Wow, what a ride y'day and today.
Clear re rate based on actual eps growth rather than speculation. Was excellent buy below 4$ . Forecast real good too. Interesting how net profit shift to being positive was enough to drag it out of a well established consolidation trading range !
Oh dear! It did hit $5, no wait..$6.20 and the mighty Ogg did wake up. But only to find out he's missed out on another 63% gain on this in the last 6 months.
We all get it Ogg, you don't get or like this company and don't see what everybody else does, so just go away and leave us to make money in peace.
Crikey .. $6.43 finish up today
OK, so the buying isn't stopping - currently at US$1.13 MCAP.
Anyone care to speculate who is buying in? It seems they are trying to build a decent position and not waiting for pull backs.
p.s. wish I had more of these!
PPH's investor relations are second to none - their messaging is clear and consistent and they have habitually outperformed guidance
However, at $7, it is looking increasingly weighted to the downside:
- Slowing customer/revenue growth
- Reasonable competition
- Near-term economic headwinds with donations linked to GDP
- Declining church membership (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...t-coming-back/)
- Broker valuations carrying a 10% WACC, which implies a cost of equity of around ~12-13% (depending on your views around risk free, beta, MRP and gearing)
Too pessimistic?
Longterm, Pushpay has set its sights on $1.5 billion annual revenue (I assume that's a USD figure), and as you say they have a great track record of achieving what they say they will.
Someone is still seeing opportunity at $7, buying 1.7 million shares today at $7.02 VWAP.
If Pushpay gets onto the radar of US investors, what would that do to the shareprice?
*edit - I hope I have the revenue figure right, please correct me if I'm wrong!
Brokers all recommend buy......no target ...but saying future is very rosy....with all the covid n people are in hope of God blessing.
So dip in my toes again...this morning....
Finished really strong at the oz Market... luckily picked some..used all my oz Moni
Mate...I been in and out PPH long enough....my first entry was $1.70
Was waiting the SP pull led back before get in again...
Great future ..but many still disbelief..m
That what I said....too many people doubt it...I never doubted PPH...made a good profit...just don't have the gut to ride it out.
Many of mates are in church....used to live in the USA....for them...a week without going to the church is like a week without pornhub....lol
It is the same with PLX...many still doubt thier future...but just think... Who the hell live in the Earth... without a cellphone? That is why PLX is a good position...as so PPH
I think PPH has def carved itself into its respective space, particularly with the church builder acquisition which was like swallowing a portion of new market share and customers.
PLX is an interesting one... we'll see how much revenue squeeze will come after superindo
Gee-whiz SP moved $2.4 upwards since deciding to become free-hold. In hindsight seems my judgement was too hasty eh!!
Nice continuing upwards momentum glad I kept my free-hold.
Certainly not doing the same with Z1p as I did with PPH
$7.50
Ogg's very quiet.
people clearly liked what they heard at the meeting
Good forecast upgrade. Good business.
Goldman also liked upgrade on CL raised TP $10.55
Good numbers trading today some are grabbing early bird special...............
Attachment 11716 The increases are being driven out of Australia. Look at how much the SP jumps when the ASX opens.
Recent upgrade was well received . Great buying at the previous prices. Getting pretty heavy now could run but topping up is tricky
I'm holding for now but I did think of selling some down. Not sure how sustainable this is. Given that Covid is likely to have a sustained run people could permanently switch to electronic donations and this behaviour might be permanent. In which case this continues to be a winner
something going on with this - very aggressive insto buying last few days.
Have you actually read their reports though? They became actual NPAT positive (without being accounting NPAT positive) for the first time and steadily demonstrating operating leverage and just updated their guidance again a week ago.
Their business model is pretty transparent and they acquired a chunk of market share through their acquisition . Huge jump in customer numbers in late half of FY20 meaning further revenue squeeze potential.
More convincing rise in shareprice than some of the BNPL fads
How high is the barrier to entry for a competitor though? Especially one like PayPal or Google etc. That is a significant risk.
IMO the best scenario is for PPH to be bought out by a larger incumbent.
PayPal and google have existed throughout PPH's entire existence and that hasn't stopped them improving their balance sheet YoY. It's more the church interface and community links that support PushPay rather than its basic utility of a tithing service which isn't what the app is all about anymore, especially after the church builder acquisition.
This brings notable degree of stickiness and somewhat of a subjective switching cost associated with pushpay. Given it's also an established player in the field and big - medium churches need the metrics pushpay also provides its customers a competitor would need a big differentiating factor to push them out of the space.
Ignoring all this, objective analysis of the balance sheet provides evidence of market share consolidation and growth.
https://www.afr.com/street-talk/push...0200713-p55bg4
much needed pullback?
Peter Huljich has been fined $112,500 in the Auckland District Court this morning for his part in misleading investors about his KiwiSaver scheme.
PUSHPAY PPH.LTD
The company he directed, Huljich Wealth Management received a fine of $239,000 and was ordered to pay $95,000 to the prosecution court costs.
Huljich, who pleaded guilty in September, faced one charge and the company - now known as HWM NZ Holdings - faced two charges in a case brought by the Financial Markets Authority. Earlier this month he asked for a discharge without conviction.
Geez some bitter guys posting in here about the big gains made from this one over the last couple of months eh .
Glad I didn’t base my positioning on 2011 articles and Oggs posts when I traded this
So what happens to the shares that Retail investors have if it de-lists from the NZX ?
Wonder why Huljich family sold so many
Exactly, same reason Rod Drury also sold down his holdings in Xero in couple of tranches from memory.
And what happened to sp since his sell down, went higher and higher. Big boys aren't dummies to participate in these kinds of sell downs knowing what's the growth curve ahead. Recent example of sell down is by founders of APT across the ditch.
Reached first target price which is sell down at $8.60, i'm picking a test of $9 in the short term.
Disc - Took the pull back opportunity y'day to get back on the register after 4 years or so..
Director resign today .
PPH is a great growth company and is having (had) a great run recently..It is a very expensive share at $9.00+ but investors were riding the wave...It was party party party until the party poopers (Huljich family) arrived and that sudden return to sobriety is now having its after effects..PPH is currently suffering a hangover...Like all hangovers it will pass with time, PPH's continuing rate of growth will see to that.. The chart below tells it all...
The sudden return to sobriety is the breakaway gap which squeezed the Bollinger bands and broke the symmetrical triangle (Before it broke, considered a continuation pattern).
Of great interest and a fantastic textbook example is the bullish abandoned baby candlestick..Any candlestick investors would have timed the Covid Bear bottom to near perfection..
Another thing to watch is the saying that gaps are usually filled..Yes that can be true but the timing is the problem..Gaps can rapidly get filled but history shows the gap filling event can and often takes longer than investors realise...History also says that when a gap starts to being filled the odds are in favour of the gap being completely filled..
Disc: Recently sold all my PPH.
Attachment 11794
Thanks Hoop, great post and a gret chart. I sold out of PPH at 6.05, thinking that it had run too far too fast. I was expecting a pull back to maybe $5.50 and would have then bought back in. My mistake!!! I have a little knowledge of charting, but don't have a live data feed or software (or the knowledge) to really benefit from its insights. What software package did you use for this set of charts?
Today , all majors insto's sold PPH in a hurry.
I mainly use Big Charts to post on ST..Its free and simple to use.. Being free it does have limitations, but does most of what you want..Big chart homepage..remember to put NZ: before the stock symbol e.g NZ:PPH or for Ozzie shares e.g AU:PPH These last two e.g links are advanced charts with my preferred indicators.
Another and probably better free charting program is Tradingview.
Have a play with them and enjoy.
Lol just saw this on tradingview, the tyrannosaurus rex indicator:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SP...ex-Indicaitor/
Apart from using a linear price scale (compulsory that I complain about that) I do find you charts overly complicated.
I reckon it is currently a hold, but each to their own:
https://static.standard.co.uk/s3fs-p...ebp&quality=70
Trailing snow leopards in Ladakh, India
Quite right. I sold my last 2 parcels at $9.60 and $9.10 when I guessed that the uptrend was about to turn.
PPH is a good long term hold, but for momentum traders, these TA signals makes a lot of sense.
Markets often overshoot and undershoot, I will look to get back in between $6.50 and $7. Just needs a bad day on the NASDAQ and it will drop to that range.
A log chart....
Snow Leopard is probably correct (this time:))..The wide range of share price justifies the use of Log scale over that of Linear...Usually when the price is less volatile it doesn't matter which one you use as the price breaks are similar..The big effect is usually the trend line which I don't overly rely on..but each to their own..
What does matter is how many investors in the market use log scale..If there is an overwhelming number of investors using log charts and they are all trendies then a log scale has to be the preferred chart method.
Also investment styles ...many investors call themselves long term investors although that's debatable during exuberance/fear times, but often the tax structure forces investors to buy & hold rather than trade..
Charting covers all term investors short medium and long..The PPH sell signal for a long term investor is currently at $5.55, a long way off..(see first chart)
Again if you are an investor willing to hold for a considerable time, then patience during the correctional decline is either a virtue or a poison arrow..PPH is a very high growth rate yet the share price languished for a considerable time between Mr Markets' correction rallies (see the second chart).
Also..many investors have different sell strategies..A popular sell strategy is exit when the second support is broken, as you see on the first chart the second broken support (now resistance) occurred recently at $7.90 -$8.00 area...You know this strategy is popular when it is noticeable using the trade depth function..Sometimes certain stocks have different types of investor trading so looking at the trading depth gives you a good idea of what type of investors are buying/selling
Attachment 11797
Attachment 11798
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/357088
CFO selling down to fund his new Ferrari?
I have been contemplating purchasing PPH (again as I sold out too early); I believe there is significant upside (not just in a COVID environment) but I have nagging doubts when some of the insiders are selling at the current prices. Shane (CFO) may have had a legitimate reason to sell but it does raise a few questions!
When it comes to investing, waiting can be the right action...
Mel.. yes nagging doubts and you are not alone as this emotion is reflecting on the PPH chart..After a sharp fall the share price, the last 8 days has seen a shallow up sloping rectangle pattern with small price movements..A Chartist call this a tight bearish flag event...Flags are considered continuation events. Continuation of the trend doesn't always happen but the odds are moderately in the favour the flag will breakout and continue in the same direction trend as before the flag event, which in PPH's bearish flag is downwards..
All you need though is a sudden change of investor sentiment to force a breakout against the odds and this does happen, so from a TA charting point of view, it pays to wait (patience is a virtue) for the share price to break out of its tight flag event, the breakout upwards will signal a buy...
Why do I call it a flag event rather than a flag pattern when others call it a pattern?.....Events are short term structures and patterns are longer term structures.....If a flag lasted a long time is would not a flag it would a sloping rectangle pattern..remember a flag event includes the flag pole
PPH exhibiting a bearish flag for the last 8 days suggests we don't have to wait much longer for a breakout to occur......Which direction will it be..eh?
Disc: recently sold out
Appreciate the comprehensive explanations Hoop. The analytics are so useful in terms of timing a buy/sell; I am inclined to overlay it with the fundamentals of this company in that their SaaS offering is very functional, scalable, (with limited customisation) and significant opportunities for increasing market share, amongst other positive attributes. Also, very impressed with their gross margin of ~65% (excl. Community Church Builder) which is set to improve further.
Yeah he sold circa 18% of his holding, so what..
The value of shares he's holding now is still much higher than what he had 3 months ago.
He's been just earning a salary and now wants some extra cash to splash out on a few luxuries and/or diversify his portfolio.
Same with the Hulich's and me too.
My holding cost is a 6-figure negative, doesn't mean i'm not happily still holding lots of PPH and bullish about its future, I just took some risk off the table and diversified my holdings a bit.
Have had a chance to read FBarr's recent initiation of coverage on PPH which had a target price of ~$12.40/share. Not sure who does or doesn't have access to the research but it's not my place to share it on this forum, however for context, the executive summary reads:
"We initiate coverage of Pushpay (PPH) with an OUTPERFORM rating and target price of NZ$12.42. PPH is the current market leader in providing customised, innovative giving technology for large US churches. This is confirmed by discussions with over 50 churches, industry experts and competitors. PPH is well placed to benefit from the ongoing consolidation of US churches and thematic shift towards digital giving, accentuated by COVID-19. For example, one PPH competitor we spoke to generated more sales in the first two months of COVID-19 than the whole of 2017 and 2018 combined. In recent months online 'pyjama church' has been a hit, with many US churches looking to continue online services longer-term. With 98% of customers in North America there is also optionality for expansion in new markets. We believe the risk to FY21 EBITDAF guidance is to the upside due to sustained church customer donation volumes and cost stability across the business"
Having read it, I'd be interested in others' perspectives, with my comments below:
It’s a bold initiation of coverage from an analyst who’s only been at FB for a couple of months… but taking the executive summary at face value, he appears to have dug quite deep and spoken to a number of useful parties. My key takeaways were:
- The blended valuation of ~$12.40 is a bit misleading for me. The DCF is $9.22 (assuming a WACC/CoE of ~9%) with the multiple valuation of around $14. I don't know about others on this forum, but I'd be expecting a higher return than 9% for every dollar invested in PPH at current prices, relative to the risk. Sure the multiples for comps are higher, but hard to find a strong comparable for PPH in my view.
- As I read through it, I felt like some of the assumptions were a bit stretched. I’m probably more naturally pessimistic, and I try moderate that where I can, but it suggested to me that there was a number of risks to the downside (particularly around suppressed economic conditions and declining church participation)
- Regardless, I’ll probably hold for now as the one thing that is irrefutable with PPH is that their corporate communications and reputation for beating expectations is consistent – therefore, happy holder of my remaining PPH having recovered a reasonable profit already (this is quite important - I've made slightly more than my investment back already and it's a moderate amount of capital I'm willing to risk)
Other comments as I read through:
- Market share of ~5% suggests plenty of growth left, but with them having 58 of the top 100 churches already, I do think that the forecast revenue growth (doubling in 2-3 years) could be slower and/or more expensive to obtain
- The report talks about consolidation of churches. Any idea what drives the consolidation of churches? Seems an odd concept within the context of faith – I would’ve thought there’d be reasonable resistance to consolidation from parishioners looking to maintain their sense of a consistent community… I suppose churches are no different to any other “business” and there’s meaningful economies of scale from consolidation?
- Americans are a great god-fearing people – but will current numbers hold into the future with millennials etc? There's an interesting chart (on page 6 for those who have it) showing a considerable decline in the number of adults with a religious affiliation - near 95% back in 1916, dropping to ~87% in 1996 and something like ~75% in 2018... I worry that the declining trend is accelerating to the point where tithing / donations is a genuine uphill battle
- It sounds like Covid has really helped accelerate the transition to mobile/online giving – they note an expected resistance of parishioners reverting back to cash donations. Americans are a bit weird how they frequently use cash (and believe they don’t need to take virus precautions because God will save them from Covid) but I expect there could be some flattening or even a slight reduction to the proportion of electronic vs. cash donations. I also think the natural tension here is that those familiar/savvy with digital giving are one generation younger, and that younger generation appear to be attending church less/not-at-all
- The return on investment/cost for churches appears to be high. Suggests potential upside from those churches not yet using PPH
- Competition always worries me a bit with these tech companies as (1) I don’t fully understand how they work and what makes them better than others and (2) it’s always hard to know/see/find information about the others
- That WACC and equity beta of 8.9% and 0.95, respectively look low. The WACC is actually the cost of equity as they have no debt. I don’t invest on the basis of a ~9% return in PPH. I’d say it’s pretty close to fair value with an equity beta of 1.0 - 1.1. That said, DCF valuation on something like this can be pretty uncertain/imprecise
- Chart to the top left on page 4 (yes, I know, annoying I can't share) – but if you reduce the sales growth rate down from 16% to 13% (quite a small change), EV/sales multiple looks fairly valued. Very sensitive to sales growth.
- Covid driven recession/unemployment has to be a concern to growth in the short-term. If that’s already priced, then there’s potentially upside... but my personal view is that there's more downside to come.
- Red herring which I'll throw out there. I don’t think they’ve identified, the risk of pastor fraud / largesse (particularly with big churches) – think Kenneth Copeland (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vColOxUf-8s). The guy owns multiple private jets and says flying commercial is like getting into a tube with demons. These guys are a bit like Teflon, but an expose could sink some of the big churches. Maybe a minor/marginal risk but not great for church reputation and somewhat taints all churches. Also, what happens when a key pastor dies/leaves/retires… I assume they are good at training up new pastors and having multiple people leading the services/church but I wonder if it has any effect?
- No non-US market growth – I expect when they start talking about other countries/markets, then it’s probably time to sell as that growth will be much slower and smaller and would suggest they’ve tapped the US. In some respects, that’s why I’m not sure this will ever be as big as Xero. Small business accounting is ubiquitous (consistent markets, languages, locations etc.). Xero has a much bigger market, but offset by more competition.
Where I stand:
- Insider sell-downs all seem reasonable and rational
- Still more upside in share price, albeit I think it's flattening/slowing - I'm not a buyer at current prices, but easier to hold when my entry was down around $3's
- PPH investor relations are exceptional
- Cost of equity / risk is quite a key input to any investor's assessment of the current share price (particularly any longer term holder) - without having replicated FBarr's modelling, a higher cost of equity probably suggests current share price of $7-9 is around fair value for me personally
- I'm not a trader (don't have the time or wherewithal to manage the info flow to "pick" the market), so I don't tend to enter and exit which may negate some of the points I make above for those more inclined to move in and out of the market
Open to the floor.
While I agree with all your points, the current re-rate x2 was driven by the upgraded guidance which was well welcomed. It's easy to dwelve deep into the macro-economics and forget to view the blindingly obvious balance sheet inflection point PPH has just gone into.
It's difficult ascertaining how significant tithly and other competitors pose a risk to PPH. What I will say is despite the ongoing presence of these competitors PPH has continued to grow exponentially. I do expect revenue growth to be somewhat decent till Fy22 or so given the "inorganic" growth they've probably achieved through the CCB acquisition. Regardless, I don't see this financial year being bad for them at all but rather more on the upside.
As you said you're a long-term holder so the outlook 2+ years is def unpredictable, however the improving operating leverage has poised this as a "safe stock". Customers are sticky and network effect is there and has clearly been capitalized on. The cost to cancel services feature also grabs churches for a period of commitment so we have some strong switching costs too, especially in the COVID environment.
I think generally speaking Kiwi analysts are bullish about software companies after the Xero experience (which analysts completely underestimated) and err on the side of optimism these days.
Having said that, the Pushpay app and Church Community Builder have a lot of promise.
I see your point about millennials. Millennials are typically less engaged with churches and religion but perhaps the online community will bring them back into the fold. There is plenty of scope with the current population but longer term younger people are less likely to belong to a church so it could be an issue in 10+ years
thank you for sharing the FB view and your analysis. I saw a Clare Capital slide this week that a) put PPH right up there with Slack and Twillo and way ahead of Xero for time-to-$100m-ARR and b) shows that Atlassian, Xero and others have similar Last 12 Month’s Revenue but 2-4x Enterprise Value. Based on that, seems like there is still significant upside.
Not there yet, but surely heading towards $9 mark..
I admire posters who put the effort into compiling lengthy, reasoned and factual posts along with their opinion, and face the scrutiny that follows.
Bearing in mind Covid restrictions MAY be around for years, , I pose a question for investors to consider.
How long will Covid inspired giving to churches continue?
Will there be a point when people ask," who am I giving to?
I don't see them anymore"
A bit like buying a ticket to a show you know you won't be able to attend, or buying food you know you won't eat.
Then again, who knows what folks will pay for a bit of redemption?
Who can remember Dr Oral Roberts?
His impassioned pleas over the radio, for money to build his prayer tower, so his prayers would be closer to God.
Maybe he was ahead of his time, like an ultra high frequency share trader, wanting to be close to the stock exchange, to get his orders in first!.
And his 6 mpg Cadalacs, mmm, I wonder what better causes the money could have gone to?
Look him up on Wikipedia if you wish.
Maybe I've answered my own question...
Dr JPG
Free contraception.
Practise abstinence.
While I agree these points are important to consider, from a business return perspective they are trivial in the short term, but macro wise maybe important.
I mean one could argue that the large base they've build now may run off the fact that these are already established communities who are using PPH and the tailwind will suffice to stabilise the business for the next 3-4 years. Who knows.
I think being objective and seeing actual financial data change and forecasts being met with corresponding TA is more reliable than subjective thoughts about a sector with no objective evidence of such thoughts. You'll end up spending hours making decisions that may end up being null.
I believe some of the expected growth is meant to come from non-church customers and from the community software that they have purchased (Church Community Builder).
To add to the available research...
Shareclarity
Share price NZD 8.63
DCF value NZD 6.66
Value-gap -22.8%
Craigs Investment Partners research at 14/07/20
Target price $8.88 (range low $4.74 - high $12.42)
"PPH is a payments technology company operating primarily in the US faith sector. PPH’s
suite of products facilitate the digital payment of donations, manage various church
systems & processes and provide an avenue for engagement between churches and
churchgoers. The faith sector has relatively low digital payments penetration with 15% of
payments made digitally.
PPH has an attractive SaaS business model that is highly scalable, has large network
opportunities and operates in a sector with a long runway for growth. Digital payments
penetration remains low in the faith sector and PPH has the ability to expand revenue strongly
by working with existing large customers to increase engagement and grow digital giving. PPH
has also turned some of its attention from pure revenue growth alone, to a more rounded focus
with profitability now gaining some consideration. As a smaller, high growth company, PPH
carries a higher risk profile than many other companies and investors should be aware of this."
Recommendations
Buy 4
Hold 2
Sell 1
Total 7
Didn't they lose their only female director. Someone said the stock would crash after that. Interesting.