In Sept 2017 the sp was around current level so your entrants after 2019 comment is far too generous, old holders at levels like 50c would be like hens teeth now, those people are a tiny minority in the story to date.
Printable View
Now many are hoping that it will stop somewhere then turnaround returns can be phenomenal if u can get lucky ...That involves luck also and some astute calculations also ...need understand how to see value in business from all's point of view ...not just number crunching type ...as some interested parties may see value in ATM @ say $ 5 and for some its worthless @ $ 3 also . $ 1.5 B revenue with profits and well tied supply chain etc may sound good to someone in the business etc .
For me its becoming very interesting for ATM from suitor point of view ...no one is thinking of this management doing anything worthwhile to improve SP in a hurry
I think Balance makes a very good point. Paying a forward PE of 30 makes sense only when you have very high confidence in strong earnings growth . That metric made sense many years ago when the company was consistently growing very strongly year after year. It should be abundantly clear that the future for ATM is highly uncertain and the geopolitical risk has never been higher. A forward PE in the mid teens based on ~ 20 cps earnings would more correctly reflect the risk and opportunities in my opinion.
In my opinion this is a SELL and fair value is about $3.
Blackmores had similar problems with Chinese distribution and sales last year
Blackmores share recovering well …heading to $100 …..might even get to the highs of $170 odd again;)
Eventually should happen with ATM also ...depends upon your luck and patience to get those returns sooner then latter ...not easy to hold steadily going down stock ...But $ 3 should not happen and most likely wont happen . Not advising to buy ...just testing my market sense ...lol