Ring Simon Owen DDI [09] 9279195 and ask him.
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Thanks Percy. Flat out at present but if nobody else can answer this I'll ring him in due course. Thanks again mate.
The discount for those opting into the dividend reinvestment programme is reduced from 2.5% to 1.0%. Seems they don't particularly want more capital. Fair enough.
Thanks...so looking forward we're on a 2015 PE of 10.12 based on mid point of forecasted profit. In my view the current historical PE is spot on for a small bank and with forecasted earnings growth of 20% this year this leaves room for circa 20% SP appreciation over the year ahead as they continue to meet their target growth. Add in say 7 cps divvy fully imputed for the yeah ahead and you're looking at a circa gross 30% return for holders in the coming year :)
Eps calculated on weighted (time wise) average number of shares being 411million. Theory being those new shares were only generating income for a little while, not the whole year.
On the 463 million shares at year end it is 7.7 cents as Roger calculated.
Lets run with 9 cents calculation. As per Roger next year it's 9.3 cents EPS ......not much of in increase in EPS is it. Is the acquisition really EPS accretive in its first year?
That's why they need a share buy back ....increase the EPS (lower number of shares) and ROE (reduced equity) at the same time. Tricky eh.
(Just as well the divie is paid on all the 463 million shares eh, not just the weighted number)
My view in a forward PE of about 12 is fair and reasonable for a small bank. I take your point about the debate about EPS growth, (weighted average v end of year shares on issue). I think as the market becomes more comfortable with HNZ's story some modest PE expansion isn't out of the question.
Yes Percy, thanks for reminding us about the value of the N.Z. imputation credits v our inability to claim franking credits from Australian banks a point that shouldn't be overlooked by any astute investor.
Attachment 6173
Roger, As much as I would like to see 20% gain this year, I don't think it is going to happen unless we get some corporate action such as a buyback or an acquisition. For the last 18 months, the ceiling on the share price has been the broker targets (see image). I'd expect this to stay the same and I wouldn't expect broker targets to change much as a result of this result.
Very satisfying to make big gains out of George Kerr.
All so predictable?
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...8HNZ%29/page35
:D :D :D