H122 at 40 cents/share + H222 at 42 cents/share = Full Year 82 cents
PE = $29.50 / $0.82 = 36
Hardly been cheaper at this level
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H122 at 40 cents/share + H222 at 42 cents/share = Full Year 82 cents
PE = $29.50 / $0.82 = 36
Hardly been cheaper at this level
If the CEO says H2 is going to be better than H1 then why do they keep saying ' the company is not providing quantitative revenue or earnings guidance for the remainder of the 2022 financial year.'
Maybe its around the that word 'quantitative' ....but they could have officially said 'Greater than $444m' (twice H1) or even given a decent range like '$450m to $500m)
What am I missing
Won't be funny if the guru analysts (with their ear close to the ground wink wink nudge nudge stuff) were about right with their $404m
see shareprice 2710 on ASX - down 1.7% - about NZD29.00
I clearly stated, FY23 earnings. Biggest guessing game in town for this and MFT is how long will the Covid tailwinds last and what's future earnings without them ?
You are quite right - there always was a case to make for the FPH share being too dear - even when the share was around $2.50. It is just one of these cases of the market not listening the the voice of reason :); Sigh - market participants are like naughty children ...
Just looking at the long term price trend:
Attachment 13491
Looks like the Covid bonus has already deflated and SP is back to the long term growth line.
Obviously - nobody can predict what tomorrows (well, next months or years) prices are ... but so far I don't see a reason for FPH to drop significantly below the long term trend line ... which means we might be due for another bounce.
I see a great company moving from high to high ... and given what you told us (on some other thread) about the development of peoples body masses during Covid lock downs ... one does not need Covid to benefit from FPH's breathing devices. People with obesity are more likely to develop breathing problems in later stages of their life - and if there are more of them around, we need more of FPH's products and - still more importantly - consumables.
The combination of more and more people not just growing old but gaining weight is an amazing tailwind for FPH.
What you are suggesting is there's no worries here about Covid tailwinds being temporary and the downtrend since August 2020 is just a temporary aberration in what's a fabulous long term uptrend. Further, 44.5 times FY23 average analyst earnings is cheap for such a fabulous company so this is a great entry point for fresh capital because many of us are getting fatter and the population base is getting older. Good luck with that.
deleted ,,,, shouldn't spoil BP's party
Lol come on winner. we dont wont an echo chamber in here. Lay the bear case on us. Personally i am with BP and alokdhir but like to see the other view
Look beagle, no need for making up what I said and no need for cynicism either. Bad start to the day?
My point was that FPH was always expensive ... and that it is today (looking at growth rate and earnings) not more expensive than it used to be at any other time over the last decade or so.
Actually - it is in comparison to previous years quite cheap ... based on a forward PE of 39 (based on an average over the forecasts of the next three years) and on an earnings CAGR of 14 (again - forward earnings based on analysts forecasts). That's a net PE of 25 (forward PE minus forward earnings CAGR). Not cheap, but apparently what the market is happy to pay.
Of course - we all know that markets tend from time to time rerate what they pay for PE's and growth rates (these occasions are commonly called bear markets). I am sure, this will happen again in the future, but none of us knows whether this will be tomorrow, next week, next month, next year or a couple of years down the track.
However - what I know is that good companies producing essential stuff like FPH are typically less hit by these phenomenon's than the indices - i.e. while I don't know when the next crash comes, I am pretty sure that FPH will keep performing well compared to other stocks.
Just for fun ... here is a 5 year comparison of FPH with the NZX50. FPH is the blue line. Do you spot which of the lines was growing faster ...? I probably would go with the 240% FPH gained over the last 5 years rather than with the 70% the NZX50 gained, but hey - each to their own.
Attachment 13494
Do I expect them to grow over the next 5 years another 240%? Actually, no ... however I would expect them to keep outperforming the NZX50. This is for me a good reason to have some of them in my portfolio ... and yes, I did accumulate a bit over the recent period of weakness.
Is it possible that they drop a bit more before they re-join the trendline? Absolutely. I just think that they are at current fair price - and I leave the bottom picking up to others :p;
Tell us how you are going :):
Biggest guessing game in town is what earnings the market darlings like FPH and MFT will be when Covid tailwinds finish ? I've had my 2 cents worth already. In summary the huge tailwinds won't last so pay a high PE based on temporarily boosted earnings at your peril. Better head back to my kennel before someone else wants to try kicking me.