For those interested in Hainan domestic travel.
https://www.oliverwyman.com/content/...pportunity.pdf
Printable View
For those interested in Hainan domestic travel.
https://www.oliverwyman.com/content/...pportunity.pdf
Conference call: https://assets-au-01.kc-usercontent....FYR_260821.mp3
The 38min's question is spot on.
Why you believe the second half of FY22 will be sizeable better? You have intensive competition in China, covid, etc.
The answer from management team is to stabilize the English label, but no specific methods. A coupe of "hopefully". They said it could be positive or negative, it is very hard to anticipate........ From H2FY22, they should not have further inventory write down. That is the assumption built on.
No doubt Covid stuffed them up big time.
But the way the world works post-Covid world will probably be a lot different ….the ‘new norm’ as they say
It’s how A2 manages the challenges of the new norm that is important ….and they don’t give us much confidence they are on top of that yet which is rather frightening in that they assumed covid wasnt goingbto impact business in the first place.
IMHO after SP shakes off the quick money out of results punters ...it will be back to business ...Not breaking 5.50 ...maybe again test it but will languish in that range 5.50 to 6.50 for another quarter .
Unless what Mr B says comes true or raises head gain ...Talk of takeover ....Fire is seen after that smoke signal in the media .
It may again be strategically timed ...when its looking to breakdown completely ...lol
Which brings up an interesting point about sales & inventories :
ATM wrote off $85.6m of stock in 2H as part of its 'stock refresh' program.
'Refresh' as in exchanging old stock rapidly approaching expiry date for new stock to stop the rampant discounting taking place then as dealers attempted to get rid of stock.
While the accounting treatment is correct, there is another way to look at the $85.6m which puts ATM financials in a different light.
Which is that the sales that ATM booked earlier against the expiring stock are not really revenues - sales which ATM had booked in H1.
Given H1 Gross margin was 50%, it can be assessed that something like $170m of revenues in the first half (25% of total revenues) should be reversed - impacting through to the full year revenue figures as well.
That being the case, ATM's H1 & FY sales are artificially inflated by said $170m - so how realistic now is ATM's expectations of flat to low growth sales in 2022?
An interesting thought Balance. Do we know if the write off was for replacing stock in the daigou channel (which I believe is your point) or if it was for ageing stock that was sitting in a warehouse? Or a combination of the two?
Has there been any more substantial information released about any real takeover interest. Or was it all just rumours based on the one reporters article in the Australian?
A lot of investors were hoping for some follow through with that or a better announcement than what it was so it seems we are starting to see lot of investors just realise their losses and cashing out now. Better to get something back while still can than see another 40% loss if SP does take a downward spiral from here to $3.50. Big risk to stay in the game and hope for a takeover as the only real hope. the risk vs reward just isn't there if possibly looking at 40% downside risk vs the 'hope' of a strategic buy out supporting the SP. Thats a pretty hopefully 'if'. I agree with the posts above. It's very hard to realise a loss on what was once a market darling ATM. Just need to remember the damage was already done buying in when the SP was higher $14-$21), all that can be done after this fact is minimising how much is now lost (I sold out all of my shares a while ago, at a big loss (due to the volume I foolishly had invested thinking ATM was a 'safe' stock at the time), but not as big a loss as if I sold them now. A good (yet hard) lesson learnt. Stop losses are important! I also had thought a 35% drop from $21 was a natural ATM occurrence and that it would bounce back off that, which obviously proved wrong. Having shorter stop losses in place would have prevented then getting caught in realising a larger loss which becomes harder and harder to action and pull the trigger on when you just keep hoping for a turn around. ATM shot themselves in the foot with management loosing faith from its shareholders then got caught in a perfect storm with then Daigou and Covid messing with China. Just got worse and worse. A hope for a buyout in my book isn't a good investment strategy to hold shares for. I would rather loose less on today's rate than possibly see another 30-40% likely on the cards next.
Any younger new traders out there might want to at least consider the risk involved in 'hope'. Some loss is better than a larger loss.
Good luck holders, I do hope things turn around for investors and ATM. They were on track to be a big NZ success story, however they have an immense amount of damage control to attend now though.