Candle wax is very elastic...
Printable View
It finally comes down to realistic valuation
As I mentioned before. It is over valuation and going too fast before
Boysy and sb9 - your silence since he announcement is deafening
Would love to hear what you think
By and large very happy with the result Winner69 far better than most on here were expecting. Remember there was talk that they were going to miss both revenue and EBITDA targets and even mention of EPS going backwards. Best to break down into what was good and what was bad in the announcement.
Positives - Hit revenue guidance, hit EBITDA guidance, Trilogy & CS Company both grew strongly (particularly impressed with the CS results far ahead of where i thought they would be clearly they are seeing the benefits of synergies and now distributing trilogy throughout NZ), Trilogy particularly so in Aussie with +44% growth (plenty more upside to improve marketshare beyond current ~11% - strong growth in this market) , mention of the China situation improving (i note these sales would be included in ROW which were up 35%), reduction in debt to $7.6M (-76%), better operating cashflow (questions were previously raised about level of stock impacting performance going forward, EPS at $0.18 (+20%) a strong result in light of expectations of a number of commentators on this thread.
Negatives - Ecoya results were ugly - winner69 might have a point to offload the candles to a cashed up buyer, TIL sales growth in NZ slowing down (this appears to have been impacted by the change in buying behaviour of the daigu channel - could this change on China amending their stance), Trilogy sales in the states falling 20% (albeit the contribute 5% of revenue for Trilogy), reduction in dividend to 4.5c (Im a happy holder as long as they invest the money in an addition short term).
In short if they can continue to grow where they have been growing this year (mainly Trilogy and in Aussie) as mentioned in the outlook section FY18 should be a continued improvement on a EPS basis of +20%. Hard to see much downsides at these levels especially if they continue to grow profitably, would be good for analysts to run the ruler over the updated results and provide a steer of fair market value.
Hard to say TIL is overpriced on a PE ratio of under 13 assuming EPS grow at 20%
Great analysis . I'll top up when I get more cash