While we are throwing around forecasts, given Management won't do it, I am picking a fall in H1 revenue with a slight rebound in H2 over H1, giving the following for FY22:
Revenues $1.18b
GM 50%
NPAT $130m
17.4c EPS assuming no change in shares.
Printable View
While we are throwing around forecasts, given Management won't do it, I am picking a fall in H1 revenue with a slight rebound in H2 over H1, giving the following for FY22:
Revenues $1.18b
GM 50%
NPAT $130m
17.4c EPS assuming no change in shares.
A2 was actually my lifestyle for many yrs, due to the avg volume I held it was like a full time job on the trading side of things and up until this time last yr I had done extremely well. The biggest mistake I made was underestimating how far it was going to go down this time(It had been down 35%ish in the two previous yrs) so I like many others thought it would turn around at this level. No-one even the most staunch TA advocates would have believed it would go to where it is now a yr ago. My strategy of selling for a loss and buying back more had served me well for many yrs but of course in hindsight we know this time was different so continuing to sell for a loss and buying back in just lead to huge losses becoming even larger, at the end of the day waiting for it to return to $20 was not an option this time around. I never went through much Fear or Greed to be honest and as I said it was a lifestyle but yes in general your squiggly worm diagram holds true.
Looks like a really tough gig for ATM for the foreseeable future. Old inventory still hanging around, declining birth rates in China, daigou sales channel is dead for the foreseeable future, rise and rise of nationalistic fervor in China and CCP extoling buy China made, unstable and deteriorating geopolitical environment, Delta variant outbreaks set to create real headaches with shipping availability, costs and distribution, losses from MVM, reputational damage to try and restore with all the massive marketing costs that implies and last but not least many shareholders now feeling disenfranchised. I think investors are wise to take make a very sober assessment of the risks here.
Yes ATM will throw a heck of a lot at trying to stabilize the ship with personnel and marketing, (because there is nothing else they can do), but there are no guarantees of success.
The good old cyclical stock - and yes, if ATM turns out to be one of them, you are right - now is perhaps the point of maximum financial opportunity.
Problem is just - we only will know with hindsight, and it well could be one of the less favorable shapes.
Not saying it will turn out like WYN, but it might end up like FSF:
Attachment 12901
Are they at the point of maximum opportunity as well?
Personally I would not put my money onto this horse ...
BP mentions Fonterra ……chart reflects long term under performance, from both operational and selling/marketing point of views
It’s a worry that A2 seem hell bent on morphing into a Fonterra look alike …..is buying all that stainless steel a good thing
Fonterra’s biggest misfortunes & losses have been its misadventures investing overseas - from China to South America, it has lost billions of dollars.
If ATM’s strategy review in October comes out with a strategy of investing in assets overseas, especially in China, it’s timbeeeerrrrrr time!
Get the hell out of the way.
From AR A2 “Contributed to Synlait’s conversion of its current coal boiler to biomass fuel”
Wonder how much they threw in the pot